Breeder's Cup Friday (no chalk)

[Melniko]

Numbers in parentheses after write-up are my top four in each race for horizontal wagers - not in any particular order.

R1 - #1 Ace Of Clubs (4-1) Turned in a solid effort in the Zuma Beach for the initial turf try. Now, with that experience under his belt, he is reunited with the jockey that was aboard for both wins. (1-4-5-6)

R2 - #6 Prancingthruparis (8-1) There's plenty of speed in this race, so I'm looking at a filly who should benefit from any kind of duel. She looks to me like the 7f will suit her based on the late gain she showed at Del Mar. (5-6-7-11)

R3 - #6 Unbridled Mary (10-1) I love Berrios in a race like this. The horse has 2 wins here at the distance (4-2-1-0) and is cutting back from a mile in second off the layoff. (2-4-6-12)

R4 - #10 Last Call London (4-1) He failed in three straight stakes tries over the Summer, all while taking plenty of action. Gets a freshening and the work pattern looks promising - I'm expecting a big effort off the bench. (1-6-10-11)

R5 - #8 Cherry Blossom (12-1) Went off at even money in a 23-horse field in the Goffs Million! Now I get O'Brien/Moore at double digits? I really like the #2 but have to go with this overlay. (1-2-8-11)

R6 - #11 Life Talk (20-1) Irad gets off Grade 1 winner Brightwork to land here. Honestly, #7 Tamara is a single in this race and will likely romp, but if you had to beat her, you could do worse than Irad and Pletcher. (7-9-11-12)

R7 - #12 Hard To Justify (6-1) IMO this is Chad's race to lose. I re-watched the Ms. Grillo victory and I think this could be a bad-ass filly. The only negative for me is the post. (4-6-9-12)

R8 - #10 Muth (4-1) I realize the post title says "no chalk" and technically that true as the Pletcher horse is the morning line favorite. I expect this one to go off as the favorite, though. Winning a Grade 1 easily leading up to this says a lot. (1-2-4-10)

R9 - #9 Endlessly (5-1) undefeated 3 for 3 and improving with each run. Thanks to a couple of O'Brien runners we should get a fair price today. (2-5-8-9)

R10 - #1 Thirsty John (12-1) the chalk should rule here in the nightcap, but I'll try to catch lightning in a bottle and trust T-Gaff to use that hot rail to his advantage. (1-3-4-6)

 

[HossSense]

Good Luck MEL

 

[yesyes]

Tough couple of days
Gl brother

 

[Melniko]

Tough couple of days
Gl brother

Thanks, yy, finally got a winner in the 7th at a very tasty 9-1.

 

[yesyes]

Thanks, yy, finally got a winner in the 7th at a very tasty 9-1.

On the board beats losing . Nice pick

 

[Melniko]

Breeder's Cup races are so hard to handicap. I saw an interview with Steve Specht moments before race 2 yesterday where he came right out and said he had been pointing for this race and his filly WOULD NOT run short. I already had him in my pick 3, but went ahead and exacta wheeled him as well. I know trainers always say their horses will run well, but this guy looked angrily confident. She romped and the exacta paid $220.
It's really easy to pick winners when you have information. I'm usually out here throwing darts blindfolded and hoping one hits.

 

[Michelangelo]

Breeder's Cup races are so hard to handicap. I saw an interview with Steve Specht moments before race 2 yesterday where he came right out and said he had been pointing for this race and his filly WOULD NOT run short. I already had him in my pick 3, but went ahead and exacta wheeled him as well. I know trainers always say their horses will run well, but this guy looked angrily confident. She romped and the exacta paid $220.
It's really easy to pick winners when you have information. I'm usually out here throwing darts blindfolded and hoping one hits.

haha, had that exacta too, Niko.

The #7 was clearly home and it looked like the big fav was gonna run second but was clearly out of gas down the stretch. I had the #7 over three horses. The favorite was one of them but I also had the #4. Out of nowhere comes the #4 closing in on the tiring fav with Mike Smith. I'm rooting for the #4 to catch him. THe camera goes to the easy winner and for a long couple of seconds I'm hoping the #4 passed the fav. He did. My friend says "Way to go, Jimmy. He's 45-1". I had no idea. I just knew that he had to be longer odds than the 3/5 fav. Got lucky. Glad you got it too.