BREAKING NEWS! Oil spikes $25 a barrel on anxiety over US bailout

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Rx .Junior
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NEW YORK - Oil prices spiked more than $25 a barrel Monday — the biggest one-day price jump ever — as anxiety over the government's $700 billion bailout plan, a weak dollar and an expiring crude contract ignited a dramatic rally.

Light, sweet crude for October delivery jumped as much as $25.45 to $130 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange before falling back to settle at $120.92, up $16.37. The contract expired at the end of the day, adding to the volatility as traders rushed to cover positions; the October price began accelerating sharply in the last hour of regular trading, a common occurrence when a contract is about to go off the board.

Still, the rally, which shattered crude's previous one-day price jump of $10.75, set June 6, showed the intensity of emotion in the market. The Nymex temporarily halted electronic crude oil trading after prices breached the $10 daily trading limit. Trading resumed seconds later after the daily limit was increased.
The November crude contract, which became the front-month contract at the end of Monday's session, was trading at $108.69, up $5.94, still a sharp gain.
In other trading, gold prices shot up more than $44.30 to settle at $909 an ounce, and other safe-haven commodities also rallied, underscoring investors' uncertainly about the direction of the economy and their fear of more turmoil ahead.
"We're off to the races again," said Jim Ritterbusch, president of energy consultancy Ritterbusch and Associates in Galena, Ill. "There's a renewed scramble for commodities because of a general weakness in the dollar."
Crude has gained about $30 in a dramatic four-day rally that has at least temporarily halted oil's steep two-month slide below $100. At this rate, crude is within striking distance of its all-time record of $147.27, reached in July.
Oil's sharp gains came as energy traders grappled with the implications of the government's proposed $700 billion initiative to stem the U.S. financial crisis by absorbing billions of dollars of banks' bad mortgage-related securities. Anxiety over the plan also sent stocks sharply lower Monday; the credit markets were calmer than they were last week, but still showing the effects of investors' nervousness.
"They're going to have to continue auctioning off a whole lot of Treasurys to finance these projects, so the dollar is going to suffer," said Matt Zeman, head trader at LaSalle Futures in Chicago. "Right now it's fear and anxiety driving people who want tangible assets.
The 15-nation euro rose to $1.4807 in afternoon trading, up from the $1.4470 on Friday. A weak greenback was a catalyst for the commodities boom of the past year, and analysts said large investment funds were expected to pour money back into the sector.
"That trade was very successful in past so if the dollar keeps weakening, a lot people are going to want to own hard assets like crude," said Andrew Lebow, senior vice president and broker at MF Global in New York.
But there is still much uncertainty about what impact the U.S. rescue plan will have on energy demand. Oil's run-up near $150 a barrel in July and a weak U.S. economy has forced Americans to cut back on their driving and led business to scale down operations. Though pump prices have eased from record levels above $4 a gallon, they remain expensive, and more softening in the economy would likely further curtail energy use in the world's thirstiest consumer.
"There are a lot of issues to be filled in. It's an extraordinarily complex situation," said David Moore, a commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia in Sydney. "The market is digesting how the (rescue) package will work and the implications for the U.S. economy."
U.S. congressional leaders endorsed the plan's main thrust, saying passage might occur in a matter of days. But they also want independent oversight, protections for homeowners and constraints on excessive executive compensation, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Sunday.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pushed lawmakers, who received the package on Saturday, to approve the proposal as soon as possible.
The Federal Reserve also announced late Sunday it granted a request by investment banks Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to change their status to bank holding companies, a move that will allow the two institutions to open commercial banking subsidiaries, greatly bolstering their resources.
 

RX resident ChicAustrian
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I expect everything else to jump because of what this bailout will do the dollar.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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we basically bailing out the rest of the world if they didn't make this move the entire global financial system woulda locked up and every economy around the world woulda went tits up

so basically now china's brazil's canada's etc can still have a fairly healthy economy albeit not growing as fast as recent past

china for instance will have to depend more on their domestic economy than exports to the US

so this in turn will help to reduce our massive trade deficit over time.....

in the US i expect to see something i am phrasing INFPRESSION

where basically

you continue to see homes, equities, jobs, wages, banks, businesses go in the gutter

while prices for oil and food stay elevated or keep going up...

so the consumer gets hit on both ends

and in this situation we at least can keep producing some stuff the rest of the world wants to buy from us so jobs in the necessities are safe

whereas jobs that depend on domestic consumption especially in the areana of shit you don't need continue to be in deep trouble...

its the lesser of two evils


regardless US is scroomed and there is a transfer in the standard of living going on

with other countries getting more while US standard of living continues to contract
 

RX resident ChicAustrian
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We should have the other countries pitch in and stop having us ruin our economy.
 

Rx .Junior
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We should have the other countries pitch in and stop having us ruin our economy.


No, we are gonna pay them Billions in the Bailout too..

The Saudi Banks like Citigroup they are gonna get Billions from the Bailout and here they are gouging Americans again at the gas pump...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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the banks created this mess....and we exported alot of this highly leveraged toxic shit all over the world

as well as the US consumer being sheep and spending beyond their means

its not just the banks fault people need to look in the mirror as well.....

all the rest of the world did was allow our debt line to continue to be expanded by buying up our treasuries and will continue to do the same in order for us to add more debt to do this new legislation
 

RX resident ChicAustrian
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No, we are gonna pay them Billions in the Bailout too..

The Saudi Banks like Citigroup they are gonna get Billions from the Bailout and here they are gouging Americans again at the gas pump...
I know what we're going to do, but it isn't what we should do.
 

Rx .Junior
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I know what we're going to do, but it isn't what we should do.

So in other words here we are the Taxpayer getting screwed again.. Giving Money and Breaks to those who need it the Least and don't deserve it...
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i'm a ron paul kook

but i really don't think you guys quite understand what happens if they don't do this

basically 1930s type environment worldwide guaranteed

from which a hitler or something could arise

we'll get to revolution and ending this farse crooked central banking system down the road for now lets have um put a stopper in the dam so to speak....so those that are in good economic standing personally can survive

the fact that people are getting pissed off about this is good for sure....and there will be more unemployed people and more people losing their homes....and eventually they may take to the streets with pitchforks demanding all the crooks in congress be ousted.....i can only hope
 

Rx .Junior
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i'm a ron paul kook

but i really don't think you guys quite understand what happens if they don't do this

basically 1930s type environment worldwide guaranteed

from which a hitler or something could arise

we'll get to revolution and ending this farse crooked central banking system down the road for now lets have um put a stopper in the dam so to speak....so those that are in good economic standing personally can survive

the fact that people are getting pissed off about this is good for sure....and there will be more unemployed people and more people losing their homes....and eventually they may take to the streets with pitchforks demanding all the crooks in congress be ousted.....i can only hope

I think thats a scare tactic that the Right is putting out there to muster support... (about the 1930's)... I say we just wait it out.. according to some of the Pubs on here... things are fine... and fundamentally strong? so why the bailout now? Why cant it wait 6mos or so?
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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i follow these markets closely and these bastards and they are actually right this time IMO

see the problem isn't money this isn't a loan...they've been getting injections from private equity for a while now.....

the problem is these banks have gobs of highly leveraged debt that they need to get off the books so they can lend again.... but the market was locking down....on wed/thurs last week interbank rates were running at 6% vs. target rate of 2% everybody was scared to lend to anybody and people worldwide were freaking out and yanking funds to protect themselves

all the treasury is doing is now creating an auction house for this toxic garbage so at least it has a place to go to get it off the books

yeah the US government is probably gonna give them a better deal than they should be getting for this trash but regardless the banks are still gonna be taking losses on all this stuff....

in theory we reflate the housing bubble and they sell this toxic shit off down the road for higher prices after the market get straightened out to which i say good luck......

i guess if they start breaking out trillion dollar stimuluses for the domestic economy down the road they could

but at that point your looking at hyperinflation in the US to meet that end with the price of oil and food going bonkers to the upside
 

Oh boy!
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the banks created this mess....and we exported alot of this highly leveraged toxic shit all over the world

as well as the US consumer being sheep and spending beyond their means

its not just the banks fault people need to look in the mirror as well.....

all the rest of the world did was allow our debt line to continue to be expanded by buying up our treasuries and will continue to do the same in order for us to add more debt to do this new legislation

tiz, they were willing partners in this mess. Their actions were an educated investment on their part. If they made a bad choice they should end up holding the bag as well. The US didn't force them to buy our treasuries.

If I make a bad investment in a treasury you can damn sure bet I won't get bailed out. These countries shouldn't either.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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bottom line if we don't do this yes they end up holding the bag

the US defaults and the whole world goes into a global depression 30s style

from which a hitler or something could evolve

if we don't do this that's what you are gonna get

massive panic worldwide, loss of faith, the global financial system breaking, and pure and utter chaos globally

cannot believe me of all people turned out to be the one arguing for dictatorial type legislation :)
 

Oh boy!
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bottom line if we don't do this yes they end up holding the bag

the US defaults and the whole world goes into a global depression 30s style

from which a hitler or something could evolve

if we don't do this that's what you are gonna get

massive panic worldwide, loss of faith, the global financial system breaking, and pure and utter chaos globally

cannot believe me of all people turned out to be the one arguing for dictatorial type legislation :)

I tend to agree with you except I have the stipulation that this should be a loan and not a bailout. From what I'm reading the banks are not going to get off scot-free and will have to pay some of it back. I haven't seen the details yet.
 

the bear is back biatches!! printing cancel....
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its not a loan nor a bailout

basically the treasury creating an auction house

someone comes in with 100 billion of highly leveraged toxic garbage...the treasury gives um 50 billion....the banks take a 50 billion dollar loss...so the banks can move on and start lending again and aren't locked up.....and the treasury attempts to sell for better after the market stabilizes and gets sorted out (good luck) down the road

pretty simple concept i keep repeating over and over :)
 

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that article about oil's jump today is typical media sensationalism. today was the futures contract roll-over to a new month (nov) and you had a short squeeze on people not wanting to roll to the new contract. the old contract was thinly traded today and was probably run up with a bit of "funny business."

tues will see the new contract in the 108-112 range.
 

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