***BREAKING NEWS*** NH POLL

[MudSlideSlim]

Kerry takes lead in NH, new Herald poll shows
By David R. Guarino and Andrew Miga/ BREAKING NEWS
Wednesday, January 21, 2004

Sen. John F. Kerry has catapulted into a 10-point New Hampshire lead six days before the nation's first primary, bouncing out of Iowa and over longtime frontrunner Howard Dean, according to a new Boston Herald poll.

The Massachusetts senator leads Dean 31 percent to 21 percent, with a slipping Wesley K. Clark at 16 percent after skipping the Iowa caucuses.

Sen. John Edwards is in fourth place with 11 percent, followed by Sen. Joseph Lieberman with 4 percent. Rev. Al Sharpton and Rep. Dennis Kucinich continue to barely register.

Herald pollster R. Kelly Myers called it a ``dramatic turn-around for John Kerry.''

 

[MudSlideSlim]

Boston Herald Poll

hummmmm.... can it be trusted?

 

[FloydGondolli]

I saw a report on that poll on TV tonight. It was taken on one day (a no-no for polling) and has a 10% margin of error. So I wouldn't condsider statistically valid.

My best guess is Kerry and Dean are essentially tied with Clark a distant 3rd.

 

[MudSlideSlim]

The poll, of 501 likely Democratic primary voters, was taken by RKM Research and Communication Tuesday and yesterday in the immediate aftermath of Kerry's surprise Iowa caucus victory. The poll's margin of error is plus or minus 4.4 percent.

The Herald poll is the first two-day sampling since Iowa's vote.

READ

 

[FloydGondolli]

Must have been a different poll I saw on TV that had Kerry leading by 10%. The one I saw had Kerry at 38%, Dean 28%, Clark 19%. But it was taken entirely on Jan. 20th and was +/- 10%.

 

[D2bets]

Floyd, I don't think it's that far off. Dean is in freefall. His negatives are higher than positives -- among dems! That's real bad. He will probably finish 3rd or 4th in NH. Unless something dramatic happens this week Kerry will win NH, but his post-NH strategy is a little murky. He has A LOT of work to do there as he had basically been ignoring them. For NH I'll say:
Kerry 30%
Clark 22%
Dean 19%
Edwards 14%
Edwards will win SC ON 2/3, Clark will win Oklahoma and Arizona. Dean will get a couple of wins and it the story will be that the race is wide open with 4 candidates having a good number of delegates to move on. It's a very distinct possibility that nobody will go to convention with the required number. It's gonna be a loooong race.

 

[FloydGondolli]

I won't make a call until after the debate tomorrow night.

With Dean involved, anything can happen. Who knows, he may attack someone!

 

[FloydGondolli]

"It's a very distinct possibility that nobody will go to convention with the required number. It's gonna be a loooong race."

Boy, that could bring the Hillary takes-over-at-the-convention scenario that was being talked about by some conspiracy theorists.

 

[MudSlideSlim]

>>Who knows, he may attack someone!

Dean may pull a Mike Tyson and bite a piece of Kerry's ear off