Brazil - Serie A

[quantumleap]

Brazil - Serie A
Goias Goiania -0.5 2.23 over Flamengo Rio Janeiro
I thought I would take the Dr. Jekyl/Mr. Hyde concept outside of Europe and apply it to the Brazilian Serie A League. The team to fade is Flamengo. Winners of 8 of their first 11 matches, they have failed to win in their last 6 matches including 4 losses.

Goias recently beat Portuguesa 4-0 at home.

 

[quantumleap]

Goias 2, Flamengo 1, WINNER!
Dr. Jekyl rides again! A lucky goal in extra time makes this one a winner.

 

[fhmesq44]

Nice call QL, had the over so I enjoyed that goal as well.

 

[quantumleap]

Nice call QL, had the over so I enjoyed that goal as well.

Nice. We both got kind of lucky there. I'll take it after all the bets I've lost in extra time.

 

[quantumleap]

Cruzeiro 1.74 over Internacional
No system play here. Just a good home record for Cruz and key players are missing for Inter.

 

[quantumleap]

Cruzeiro 1.74 over Internacional
No system play here. Just a good home record for Cruz and key players are missing for Inter.

Cruz 2, Inter 0, WINNER, +0.74

 

[Betting4Fun]

Cruzeiro 1.74 over Internacional
No system play here. Just a good home record for Cruz and key players are missing for Inter.

Good job,had them parlayed with Palmiras and America last night.I love Brazilian league..this is not a league bookies make money on,strong advantage for home teams for the most here.

 

[quantumleap]

Good job,had them parlayed with Palmiras and America last night.I love Brazilian league..this is not a league bookies make money on,strong advantage for home teams for the most here.

This is what I am reading elsewhere as well. The Brazilian league doesn't have the amount of upsets that other leagues have. I've been watching line movements. When I see the line move for a team I research to see if there are key players missing like we had yesterday.

Thanks for the valuable input.

 

[quantumleap]

Good job,had them parlayed with Palmiras and America last night.I love Brazilian league..this is not a league bookies make money on,strong advantage for home teams for the most here.

I just checked the tables.

After 9 home matches not one Brazilian team has a losing record at home. Only 1 has the same amount of losses as wins at home.

After 9 road matches only two teams have a winning record. Only one team has the same amount of wins as losses on the road.

 

[Betting4Fun]

I just checked the tables.

After 9 home matches not one Brazilian team has a losing record at home. Only 1 has the same amount of losses as wins at home.

After 9 road matches only two teams have a winning record. Only one team has the same amount of wins as losses on the road.

Yeah,its a decent league..i win a parlay or two each week playing home teams there just got to pick them carefully,sometimes some have bad h2h vs others so avoid those.i said it is easier league in a way to predict for a reason

 

[quantumleap]

Yeah,its a decent league..i win a parlay or two each week playing home teams there just got to pick them carefully,sometimes some have bad h2h vs others so avoid those.i said it is easier league in a way to predict for a reason

All the home teams won today except Internacional which came to a draw.

 

[quantumleap]

Grêmio -0.5 1.90 over São Paulo
I'm not afraid of betting favorites here as long as they are at home. Grêmio is the league leader and has won 7 out of 10 of their home matches.

William Thiego is injured for Grêmio but the promising newcomer Léo will be starting in his place. Missing for São Paulo is Joílson who is suspended. Alex Silva and Hernanes are on duty with Brazil in the Olympics.

Vasco de Gama Rio Janeiro pk 1.77 over Internacional Porto Alegre
Vasco is an entirely different team at home than they are away. They have only lost once in their last 7 home matches.

 

[quantumleap]

SWEEP!!

arty:

Grêmio 1, São Paulo, WINNER, +0.90

Vasco 4, Internacional 0, WINNER, +0.77


YTD: 4-0, +3.64

 

[quantumleap]

Botafogo Rio Janeiro -0.5 1.90 over Cruzeiro Belo Horizonte
The difference here is the difference with most teams in this league, the home record vs. the road record. Bota has been dismantling teams at home outscoring them 16-1 in their last 6 matches. Cruzeiro did not play well during their last road match against Portuguesa, a lower-tier team. They are getting too much respect here due to the fact that they are in 2nd place in the league but that only leads to a better line for us. Bota is a Dr. Jekyl system team which is playing much better with their new coach.

Now for the good stuff. Silva will be missing for Bota and that is a drawback. However, Cruzeiro will be missing Ramires to the Olympic team and also Charles, Espinoza, Rômulo and Fabricio.

São Paulo FC -1 1.79 over Atletico Paranaense
Atletico has scored 1 goal in their last 8 road matches while São Paulo has won 8 out of their last 10 home matches including their last 5.

Vitoria Salvador -0.5 1.68 over Sport Recife
I decided to take the -0.5 instead of the -1 because I feel the -0.5 is more of a sure thing. Vitoria has won 9 out of their last 10 home matches.

Sport has lost 7 out of 10 away matches.

 

[GreenDoberman]

samba to all.

 

[quantumleap]

Thanks GD.

Bam! Out go the lights!

Vitoria 0, Sport 0, Loss, -1.00
Well it was bound to happen. A loss in the Serie A league.

São Paulo 3, Atletico 1, WINNER, +0.79

Bota 1, Cruzeiro 0, WINNER, +0.90

Today: 2-1, +0.69

YTD: 6-1, +4.33

 

[GreenDoberman]

2 wins, 1 draw.

But it was almost complete disaster.

Vitoria drew and Sao Paolo is down 1-0 at half and Botafogo 0-0.

Botafogo scored late when opponents got a red card and SP turned it on.

I was scoreboard watching and for a while thought I was going oh-fer with some steep juice.

 

[quantumleap]

2 wins, 1 draw.

But it was almost complete disaster.

Vitoria drew and Sao Paolo is down 1-0 at half and Botafogo 0-0.

Botafogo scored late when opponents got a red card and SP turned it on.

I was scoreboard watching and for a while thought I was going oh-fer with some steep juice.

I was watching the same thing. I felt confident Bota would pull one out so I thought I would go 1-2 but they did have a bit of luck toward the end.

1.90 and 1.79 isn't that steep of juice is it?

 

[GreenDoberman]

Sao Paulo was -290 for me.

 

[quantumleap]

Sao Paulo was -290 for me.

That's why I decided to take the -1 AH with better odds. I figured the worst I could do is a draw since Atletico had only scored 1 goal in their last 8 road matches.