Brandon Lang
Super Bowl Winner ... 50 Dime Arizona Cardinals
10 Dime Money Line Bonus Arizona Cardinals
FREE - Under Cardinals/Steelers (See daily video for your analysis on this total)
NOTE: First and foremost, if you're purchasing the pick via the One Day Discount Package, please be sure to print this out because once the package expires, you will not be able to see the plays and analysis. Either write the plays down or print the plays out for your records.
I've often been asked so many things about never losing this game.
How have I done it? Do I have a system? What has been the biggest key to hitting the Super Bowl every year of my career?
Simply put, the one key is to look at the matchup. How do the two teams match up with one another? Forget the season and look at the match up of this game.
You can take what happened in the regular season and playoffs to help gage where a team is at and what their weaknesses are but for the most part, it's a game all to itself, especially with 2 weeks to prepare.
That is the biggest key of all.
Another key is if I feel the underdog has a shot to win the game outright, I roll with the dog because of the 42 Super bowls played, with the 3 that feel right on the number withstanding, the straight up winner has covered 34 of the 39.
I have looked at this game from every angle possible and in my opinion I keep coming back to the same thing. Which ever QB plays better and does not turn the ball over, his team will win.
For my money today, it's Kurt Warner and not Ben Roethlisberger, who I feel is due to implode. I have seen enough from Warner in these playoffs and the past 1 1/2 years in this Cardinal offense to jump on his bandwagon.
He has faced this Steelers defense. He faced a good Ravens defense on the road last year. He is as comfortable as I have ever seen him. He is better now than he ever was. Experience will do that for you.
So enjoy the game folks and what I am confident will be Super bowl winner #17 in a row.
50 Dime Cardinals - Don't be surprised to see the Cardinals shock the world and win this game outright. That's why we're playing a bonus on the money line, because I do believe there's a chance the Redbirds win this game.
I told you the same thing last year with the 11 point underdog Giants and they didn't disappoint me and I am confident in going for my 17th straight Super Bowl winner Arizona won't as well.
People often asked me about the Giants call. They asked me if I could name one thing that got me on the Giants what it was. My answer was always the same.
I just couldn't see the Patriots blowing out the Giants and quite frankly, I just don't see the Steelers blowing out the Cardinals in this game either.
In picking the Giants I said if they didn't lose the turnover battle, they would give themselves a shot to win the game. They did just that as both the Patriots and G-men turned it over once.
In their last 11 games, if the Arizona Cardinals have a turnover advantage, they are 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS. When they don't, try 1-7 SU and 1-6-1 ATS.
When they met in week 4 last year in Arizona, the Cardinals as 6 point home dogs upset the Steelers 21-14 with each team turning it over twice.
Hines Ward missed the game for the Steelers while Boldin missed it for Arizona and Polamalu missed the 2nd half but most of the main players who did play will be on the field Sunday give or take a few from both sides.
I talked on radio about so many intangibles involved in this game.
It starts with Whisenhunt and his knowledge of everything Pittsburgh does defensively since defensive coordinator **** Lebeau is one of his best friends. Can you imagine the X's and O's talk they had golfing all the time.
Some will argue the same goes for LeBeau and his knowledge of what Whisenhunt likes to do offensively but trust me folks, Whisenhunt didn't have the weapons in Pittsburgh he has at his disposal now.
He also didn't have Todd Haley, as hot an offensive coordinator the playoffs has ever seen, considering the Cardinals are the first NFL team in history to put up 30 points in 3 straight playoff games.
And Whisenhunt knows Ben Roethlisberger better than any coach in the NFL, even better than his own head coach Mike Tomlin.
After the Steelers drafted Ben, it was Whisenhunt, then the offensive coordinator who taught Ben everything about the offense, molded him and along with that knows his every weakness as an NFL QB.
Whisenhunt can outsmart Big Ben and not the other way around.
Or how about Russ Grimm, offensive line coach in Pittsburgh and now assistant head coach in Arizona. How familiar is he with the defensive line and blitzing schemes of Lebeau his offensive line will see Sunday.
Oh, and by the way, an Arizona offensive line that has started all 19 games together this year, unprecedented for an NFL season.
Lastly, six other Cardinal coaches have ties to the Steelers, so much so people have actually called Arizona the "Steelers" of the west. Information like that is priceless in a game you have two weeks to prepare for.
Yes, the Steelers have the best defense in the NFL across the board but they haven't faced an offense like this all year long and especially an offense peaking at exactly the right time with a QB playing the best ball of his entire career.
I mean, think about this. The Eagles came into Arizona with the 3rd best defense in the NFL and perhaps playing their best ball of the entire year and the Cards shredded them the entire first half.
Did they ease up in the 2nd half? You bet they did but who could blame them up 24-6 but when the final bell sounded, Warner led them on the game winning drive as cool and as calm as could be.
Lastly, the Steelers offense has been inconsistent all year and it's an offense the Cardinals match up very well against defensively.
This is a much underrated defensive line that can come after the one QB whose offensive line has allowed him to be sacked more than any other QB in the NFL since 2004. They will get at least 3 sacks on Sunday.
Where I feel people are missing this game in going with Pittsburgh is thinking the Steelers defensively are just going to shut down Arizona. People, this is not happening on a neutral field and 2 weeks to prepare.
They also think the Steelers offense, which as mentioned above has been as inconsistent all year long, is going to just roll over Arizona.
You know the offense I am talking about. 10 points at Cleveland. 6 points at Philly. 14 at home to the Giants. 11 at home to the Chargers. 14 at Tennessee and 13 at home to Dallas, (the other 7 came on the pick 6).
The Steelers offense has been the benefit of a defense that for the most part has handed them turnovers and great field position.
You also can't discount what Arizona did defensively in the 2nd half of the Falcons game, the entire Carolina game and the first half of the Eagles game. A defensive line that has been together for the last 4 years.
Finally, the Cardinals will not be intimidated by anything Pittsburgh does on Sunday. This is a confident football team, led by confident coaches who not only believe they can win, and knows they can win.
Of all the teams the Steelers could have faced here in the Super bowl, they are facing the one team that not only knows them but matches up well with them across the board.
And in a game like this, more evenly matched than people think your value sides with the underdog and a QB who with a win today, punches his ticket to the Hall of fame.
This game will go down to the wire. perhaps the last team with the ball gets it done and maybe even OT but in my opinion, there will be no blowout in what I feel will be a field goal game.
My 17th straight Super bowl winner is Arizona plus the points.
BONUS PROP PLAYS - These are to be played for fun, these are not rated.
1) National Anthem OVER 1:54
2) Coin Toss - Tails
3) Total Receiving Yards Hines Ward UNDER 73 1/2
4) Total Receptions Anquan Boldin OVER 5 1/2
5) Total Receptions Steve Breaston OVER 3 1/2
6) First player to score - Steve Breaston 15/1
7) Game MVP - Kurt Warner
8) Cardinals Over 2-1/2 Sacks
hno:
