Bragg's Wednesday 197-133 60% (+72.3 units) BIG GAME INSIDE!

[jbragg10]

197-133 60% (+72.3 units)
^ pending the BYU game (which looks bad)

First off let me say, this is not a game of the year or game of the month stupid non sense.
This is just a game I really like. I usually only lay 1-2 units a game, but here it is:
Kentucky +1 (5 units)
I know 5 units does not seem a lot, but it is money management and a lot for me on one game.

About Me:
- Am I a UK fan? Yes
- Am I a bias UK fan? No
- My percentage of betting UK games: 68%
- I usually bet against them rather than for them because I know their weaknesses.
- I know them like the back of my hand and probably could coach this team.

... with that being said

About this team:
I have not bet on this team very much this year because you really don't know what you are getting game in and game out.
One game, they show up and look decent. The next game, they look like the worst team in the SEC.
Everyone thinks they are horrible on offense and Jodie Meeks is about all we have.

That is true in a way, but we have won plenty of games when other teams try to take out Meeks.
When Meeks scores less, our shooting percentage is actually higher (oddly enough). The reason for this is because players like Harris, Porter, Miller and fellas have wide open shots.

This team's main focus is playing great defense and controlling the boards.
Patterson being back is a big help on the boards (part of the reason they lost to Vandy when he was out).

When UK has lost this year, it has been mostly off turnovers (which is getting better), rebounding and defense. Those are the areas that UK usually excels at.

Their main weakness for UK is against teams that like to drive and kick.
UK struggles when the other team has quick guards who like to get to the basket.

About the game (why I like UK):
I know what you are saying right now ... South Carolina is a team with quick guards and like to drive to the basket.
South Carolina is at home. South Carolina has already beat UK at Rupp. All this is true, but here is why I really like UK in this spot.

1. Gillespie has changed his game plan against teams and players that like to drive and kick. In the beginning of the year, they were over playing every pass and then they were getting back cut. They also play extreme pressure defense. This is why they struggle against fast teams (and lose on the boards)
Teams would drive past UK's guards and Stevenson/Patterson will try to block every shot, leaving the weak side open for offensive rebounds. Now he is adjusting better to the players and coming up with better game plans.

2. Tennessee out rebounded UK last game. UK has never been beaten on the glass in back to back games until last 2 games.
Look at this stat (even though I don't like stats):
Game 3: Lost (rebounds) 31-30 ... next game Won (rebounds) 50-33
Game 10: Lost (rebounds) 42-34 ... next game Won (rebounds) 49-27
Game 15: Lost (rebounds) 35-34 ... next game Won (rebounds) 39-32 ... 2 game later Won (rebounds) 42-22
Game 20: Lost (rebounds) 45-40 ... next game Won (rebounds) 40-35
I believe they will dominate the glass in this game.

3. UK actually plays better on the road. I know they are 4-4 on the road, but two of the losses were against Louisville/N.Carolina
They lost to Louisville by 2 and after the first 5 minutes of the N.Carolina game, they played them even points wise.
I personally notice a different swagger about this team on the road. It's like they want to go in people's place and beat them.

4. Revenge factor. South Carolina beat UK by 1 point last month. UK actually had a 10 point lead in that game at one time.
UK shot 52% to South Carolina's 42%.
South Carolina made shots in that game that were pretty much all contested shots. They were making fade away threes and throwing up garbage. I really don't see that happening this time around.

5. If it is a close game, UK is one of the best free throw shooting teams in the nation. This is a big edge.

6. UK needs this game. They will be pumped -- sounds stupid, but it's true.

7. Gillespie actually does better against teams in their second game. History shows that if you beat a Gillespie team, the stats the next game they play tend to be better.

8. South Carolina will try to take Meeks out of the game and not let him catch it. That will open other players up. Look for Patterson to have a big game. When you play a box-and-1 against UK, Meeks will take his man really far out and open the middle for Patterson. Some teams can do this and lock up Patterson.
but ...

9. South Carolina has no one who can match Patterson (no Archie can't hold him). If they play a box-and-1 or even a chaser on Meeks, this will allow Patterson to have 1 on 1 opportunities.
This is a big no-no for SCar. They don't have the body to do this with Patterson.

10. South Carolina has struggled recently (last 5).
Overtime win against a bad Arkansas team
Lost to Miss. St
Beat a bad Alabama team by 2
Beat a terrible Georgia team by 11
Lost to Florida


Some stupid stats for people who like stats.
KENTY are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games.
SOCAR are 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 home games.
Road team is 13-3 ATS in the last 16 meetings.
# Wildcats are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
# Wildcats are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games following a S.U. win.

Kentucky +1 (5 units)

If I lose ... I lose, but let me say MONEY MANAGEMENT FOLKS. I have the money to lose, I am strictly playing with the mans money.
If I lose, I still have +65 units.
THIS IS NOT A GAME OF THE YEAR OR MONTH!!!!
This is just a game I like!

Good luck and I hope the game plays out the way I see it happening.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Good luck, but I will be on the other side. South Carolina is the real deal.

 

[Hamboner0182]

good luck

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Though I am worried with NW on them and their shitty free throw shooting. I think this game means more for South Carolina.

 

[jbragg10]

Good luck, but I will be on the other side. South Carolina is the real deal.

Not trying to start something ... but please explain how they are the real deal.
I have not seen it. Only two teams worth anything that they have beat has been Florida and Baylor.

Also ... how does it mean more for S.Carolina.
They both NEED this game.

I was so happy when UK lost this game last time, because I knew I would be all over it next time

 

[Drunkn247]

Not trying to start something ... but please explain how they are the real deal.
I have not seen it. Only two teams worth anything that they have beat has been Florida and Baylor.

Also ... how does it mean more for S.Carolina.
They both NEED this game.

I was so happy when UK lost this game last time, because I knew I would be all over it next time

I like Kentucky too but the 3rd big win they do have is at RUPP

 

[jbragg10]

I like Kentucky too but the 3rd big win they do have is at RUPP

I guess. Like I said before ... that game was a joke.
UK was up by 10. Stevenson could have won the game, but he missed 2 free throws and allowed SC to come down and hit the game winner.
They were shooting fade away threes and making them. It was a joke.

 

[Drunkn247]

I guess. Like I said before ... that game was a joke.
UK was up by 10. Stevenson could have won the game, but he missed 2 free throws and allowed SC to come down and hit the game winner.
They were shooting fade away threes and making them. It was a joke.

I know I was down that day and tried to get even On UK first half after that lost I bet the 2nd half and got crushed

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Not trying to start something ... but please explain how they are the real deal.
I have not seen it. Only two teams worth anything that they have beat has been Florida and Baylor.

Also ... how does it mean more for S.Carolina.
They both NEED this game.

I was so happy when UK lost this game last time, because I knew I would be all over it next time

SEC as a whole is nothing much, but they have solid wins like you said over <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State>, Baylor, and at <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kentucky</st1lace></st1:State>. Almost won at <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State> with a 2nd half comeback and ft shooting cost them a win at <st1:Street w:st="on"><st1:address w:st="on">Miss St</st1:address></st1:Street>. It's not like <st1:State w:st="on">Kentucky</st1:State> has beaten anybody great as their best wins are <st1:State w:st="on">Florida</st1:State> and <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Tennessee</st1lace></st1:State>. <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kentucky</st1lace></st1:State> is 3-4 their last 7 games and 1-2 on the road in that stretch. I know they missed Patterson, but if he or Meeks have an off night <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kentucky</st1lace></st1:State> is done. <st1:State w:st="on">South Carolina</st1:State> has multiple scorers with <st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Downey</st1lace></st1:City> and Fredrick outside while Archie and Holmes battle inside. They also have Sam Muldrow who has given them a huge boost since he came back from injury. While Patterson had a big game vs. them they held Meeks to only 11 shots and you know <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kentucky</st1lace></st1:State> is still looking for that 3rd scorer. I'm expecting Downey to have a big game and dominate Porter while South Carolina should get more calls at home also as they only shot 15 FT compared to 29 for Kentucky. They also dominated the offensive boards getting 18 compared to 8 for <st1:State w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">Kentucky</st1lace></st1:State>.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comfficeffice" /><o></o>

 

[SC2009]

Dude South Carolina beat UK AT UK. You bring up field goal percentage, doesn't that make it sound even worse? I mean your team shot 10% better than the Gamecocks and couldn't beat them on your own home court! South Carolina finds ways to win... You arrogant UK fans are so annoying.

 

[jbragg10]

Okay.
1. South Carolina has not been great either:
Last five (like mentioned above)
Overtime win against a bad Arkansas team
Lost to Miss. St
Beat a bad Alabama team by 2
Beat a terrible Georgia team by 11
Lost to Florida

2. Since the South Carolina, UK has found the third scorer. His name is Darius Miller. He has been HUGE lately. He will be a BIG difference in this game.

3. Rebounding ... read my stat about UK and rebounding. They will win this rebounding edge.
Game 3: Lost (rebounds) 31-30 ... next game Won (rebounds) 50-33
Game 10: Lost (rebounds) 42-34 ... next game Won (rebounds) 49-27
Game 15: Lost (rebounds) 35-34 ... next game Won (rebounds) 39-32 ... 2 game later Won (rebounds) 42-22
Game 20: Lost (rebounds) 45-40 ... next game Won (rebounds) 40-35

4. Your right ... UK has not beaten really anyone except West Virginia, Kansas St, Tenn and Florida ...
however their competition they have played has been solid.
They have losses against some good teams: Miami, Louisville, North Carolina. At least UK has played top tier teams.

5. Downey is solid ... you are right about that

 

[jbragg10]

Dude South Carolina beat UK AT UK. You bring up field goal percentage, doesn't that make it sound even worse? I mean your team shot 10% better than the Gamecocks and couldn't beat them on your own home court! South Carolina finds ways to win... You arrogant UK fans are so annoying.

lol ... I love posts like this.
good luck tomorrow.

 

[Hamboner0182]

^
yah screw them

idiots

 

[SC2009]

USC has a team... Kentucky is Meeks and that's it. You shut down meeks, game over UK. Like I said, you shot 10% better than SC and still couldn't beat them... South Carolina will shoot a much better percentage at home, how do you expect to beat them now? South Carolina actually has been playing pretty well. Arkansas can play well at times and had a pretty good game against USC... I believe they shot over 60% in the 2nd half of that game, which USC led by 10+. Free throws did SC in against MSU. They've yet to lose a game at home in the SEC (only one loss total at home and that was to Clemson) and the Garnet army will be there in full capacity. I think it'll be a great game and SC will have a hell of a time guarding Meeks but I don't know why anyone would give them the edge in this game.. it's not like you've played extraordinarly well on the road. I mean you lost to Vandy and Mississippi.. lol. The game was played literally like 3 weeks ago... did he really change his gameplan that soon? Downey doesn't have to dish it off... he can score on his own... as well as Fredrick, Holmes, Archie, and Muldrow. Muldrow is just getting confortable in the paint, I look forward to this game.. it's for the SEC-East lead.

 

[Mr.Cover123]

Just because they lost the rebouding game their last game doesn't mean they will win it next time. Harris has played better, but you can't count on a freshmen on the road to shoot 6-6. I just don't like relying on 2 players on the road against a team filled with guys that can put up points.

It will only be a small play though as I see better games like Miss St. +8.5 at Tennessee.

 

[SC2009]

agree, MSU is definitely the play against Tennessee... I think UK-USC could go either way... depends on if SC can contain Meeks.

 

[jbragg10]

USC has a team... Kentucky is Meeks and that's it. You shut down meeks, game over UK. Like I said, you shot 10% better than SC and still couldn't beat them... South Carolina will shoot a much better percentage at home, how do you expect to beat them now? South Carolina actually has been playing pretty well. Arkansas can play well at times and had a pretty good game against USC... I believe they shot over 60% in the 2nd half of that game, which USC led by 10+. Free throws did SC in against MSU. They've yet to lose a game at home in the SEC (only one loss total at home and that was to Clemson) and the Garnet army will be there in full capacity. I think it'll be a great game and SC will have a hell of a time guarding Meeks but I don't know why anyone would give them the edge in this game.. it's not like you've played extraordinarly well on the road. I mean you lost to Vandy and Mississippi.. lol. The game was played literally like 3 weeks ago... did he really change his gameplan that soon? Downey doesn't have to dish it off... he can score on his own... as well as Fredrick, Holmes, Archie, and Muldrow. Muldrow is just getting confortable in the paint, I look forward to this game.. it's for the SEC-East lead.

Meeks was shut down against Florida.
UK won.
They have another player you forget to mention in Patterson.

And yes ... in those three weeks, Gillespie has allowed other players to actually take shots.
Porter sucks, but he has been hitting a lot threes lately. The reason is because Gillespie was telling the team to be very patient and try to get the ball to Meeks. Now, people like Miller (who was scared to shoot the ball b/c of Gillespie) has been given the green light to shoot.
He changed this because he realized teams were going trying to take Meeks out of the game and he allowed other players to attack more.

Tomorrow will depend on shot selection. The only thing I am nervous about it whether Meeks will take good shots. Sometimes he tries to hard and rushes his shot.

Like I said before. They lost on the road to some very good teams. They are battle tested. Even though the record doesn't show it, they have a different swagger on the road. At home, they have felt the pressure from the fans because they are UK and they have not lived up to that name the last few years.

Please remember, you keep saying "you". I am not betting on UK because I am a UK fan. I am betting this game as a gambler and I see an advantage.
Like I said above, I usually bet against UK because I know their weaknesses.

We all see things differently. Either way ...

good luck tomorrow

 

[boyzfan]

bragg,
do you see kentucky getting more points or should it be grabbed at +1?
public is 60% on sc right now and was wondering if you think the public will continue to hit up sc?

 

[ShortBusDriver7]

bragg,
do you see kentucky getting more points or should it be grabbed at +1?
public is 60% on sc right now and was wondering if you think the public will continue to hit up sc?

line moved to PK at BetJamaica. No idea if others will join

 

[jbragg10]

I was thinking this game would drop to a pick em game. I think UK wins by around 7, so I don't think it matters. However, I am terrible at guessing what the public is going to do.