Bradyisgod's MNF Play

[bradyisgod]

Texans ML (+1.5 units)

Don't trust them to cover, going money line. Probably do one or two of these a year but I can't trust Houston until they show me something. Should have got this line at -1 but I fumbled. You could tell the insider's knew Luck wasn't going to play by line movement but I didn't pull the trigger. It's just too hard to restrain myself on TNF BOL!


edit: Title meant TNF. Long work day, no coffee. Second time in two weeks I've done this ha ha : D

 

[United]

Just opened this up. Just to many penalties for H and the Colts have now won 16 straight in division play.

I do think Hoyer proved himself worthy to be the starter.

How are the Pats coming off a bye?

I want to play them so bad but just seems fishy to me.

 

[JackStraw420]

Just opened this up. Just to many penalties for H and the Colts have now won 16 straight in division play.

I do think Hoyer proved himself worthy to be the starter.

How are the Pats coming off a bye?

I want to play them so bad but just seems fishy to me.

By my count, they are 11-4 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in the Belichick era, after their bye week. More recently, 1-4-1 ATS the past 6 seasons. So nothing really of note, as those numbers are likely in line with their regular numbers on non-bye games.

I pay close attention to teams coming off of byes, especially those that are favored on the road. By my calcs, they are 46-23-1 through 2013 (have to update my data for last year).

I'm on the Pats for sure this week.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

By my count, they are 11-4 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in the Belichick era, after their bye week. More recently, 1-4-1 ATS the past 6 seasons. So nothing really of note, as those numbers are likely in line with their regular numbers on non-bye games.

I pay close attention to teams coming off of byes, especially those that are favored on the road. By my calcs, they are 46-23-1 through 2013 (have to update my data for last year).

I'm on the Pats for sure this week.

NE is 5-2 ATS + SU on road after a bye in the Belichick era though.
Last year 42-20 at IND.

 

[United]

By my count, they are 11-4 SU and 7-7-1 ATS in the Belichick era, after their bye week. More recently, 1-4-1 ATS the past 6 seasons. So nothing really of note, as those numbers are likely in line with their regular numbers on non-bye games.

I pay close attention to teams coming off of byes, especially those that are favored on the road. By my calcs, they are 46-23-1 through 2013 (have to update my data for last year).

I'm on the Pats for sure this week.

Thanks

 

[United]

NE is 5-2 ATS + SU on road after a bye in the Belichick era though.
Last year 42-20 at IND.

Thanks

 

[JackStraw420]

NE is 5-2 ATS + SU on road after a bye in the Belichick era though.
Last year 42-20 at IND.

Not sure what you mean. Belichick has been coach there since 2000? (sorry, just re-read you did clarify on the ROAD...my bad)

Last 7 years they are 5-2 SU, and 2-4-1 ATS

2014 +3 @ Indy W 42-20
2013 +3 @ Carolina L 20-24 (on that controversial late TD by CAR)
2012 -13.5 vs. Buffalo W 37-31 (L-ATS)
2011 -3 @ Pitt L 17-25
2010 -3 @ Balt W 23-20 (PUSH -- obviously this one could be different, depending on what line you use)
2009 -10.5 vs. Miami W 27-17 (again, could be different ATS with different line)
2008 -3 @ SF W 30-21

So perhaps our numbers differ a little because of what line we used. I just used covers.com score page, so it's basically just the closing number they use.

 

[bradyisgod]

I like the Pats @ 8 because the spread differential seems like it should be more like 9.5+. That's factoring in home field at 3 which seems to be about average depending on where you play. I have the pats @ -7 but I should have just took the -8 on second thought. My bet of the week is Cinci -2.5 for obvious reasons. The patriots bet for me is probably my second most valuable bet this week behind Cinci. Buffalo -2.5 looks like great value. The Skins bet also looks nice but I haven't placed it yet. BOL!

 

[bradyisgod]

On a side note, I normally just place my wager and then make a post but I ended up doing it the other way around for some reason. Made the post at 7:23 and bookmaker shut down the line before I could get my bet off at 7:25 so I saved 1.5 units. Still going down as a loss for me bet wise, but I was lucky enough to save some money. I really thought the Texans could cover that. Apparently, we are so bad that we can't even beat a 40 year old QB with an illness on an under performing Colts team. I had a bad feeling about this game going into it, promised myself I would hold off on this bet and somehow ended up placing a hesitant money line on this one. You gotta go with your gut - it's usually right.

 

[Slurve~Ball]

Not sure what you mean. Belichick has been coach there since 2000? (sorry, just re-read you did clarify on the ROAD...my bad)

Last 7 years they are 5-2 SU, and 2-4-1 ATS

2014 +3 @ Indy W 42-20
2013 +3 @ Carolina L 20-24 (on that controversial late TD by CAR)
2012 -13.5 vs. Buffalo W 37-31 (L-ATS)
2011 -3 @ Pitt L 17-25
2010 -3 @ Balt W 23-20 (PUSH -- obviously this one could be different, depending on what line you use)
2009 -10.5 vs. Miami W 27-17 (again, could be different ATS with different line)
2008 -3 @ SF W 30-21

So perhaps our numbers differ a little because of what line we used. I just used covers.com score page, so it's basically just the closing number they use.

Im looking at Belichick's road games after bye. Try to paste this. Hopefully formatting works.

Date	Away	Score	Home	Score	Result	Home Spread	ATS	Total	OU
Nov 16, 2014	NE	42	IND	20	W	-3.0	W	58.5	O
Nov 18, 2013	NE	20	CAR	24	L	-3.0	L	46.0	U
Oct 30, 2011	NE	17	PIT	25	L	+3.0	L	51.5	U
Oct 5, 2008	NE	30	SF	21	W	+3.0	W	41.0	O
Nov 18, 2007	NE	56	BUF	10	W	+16.0	W	47.0	O
Oct 22, 2006	NE	28	BUF	6	W	+5.5	W	36.5	U
Oct 3, 2004	NE	31	BUF	17	W	+4.5	W	35.5	O

Check 2007. Team on a mission.