Bradyisgod's MNF Play 10.19.15

[bradyisgod]

Eagles -2.5

Prime-time divisional games are tough to cap, took a point. I probably wouldn't bet this game if Beckham wasn't banged up and Cruz wasn't out. The bet gains a lot of value than books are making it seem with those two key injuries. Home teams play well during prime time. Trying to get back to 70% tonight. Can't realistically expect to hit that number long term but I want to stay as close to it as I can at the beginning of the season when I am strongest. Plays to either side makes sense. Tough one. BOL both sides.

 

[chonce]

What is the juice on that (-160)?

 

[bradyisgod]

What is the juice on that (-160)?

Yes and worth it. I've been doing really well taking the hook multiple times where everyone else pushed (3 times this year already). First game this year where I've needed to take a full point unless I forgot one. I think divisional games, especially during prime time, make a lot more sense to take the insurance. I've watched enough football to know that these games run close. You'll usually be happy you did.

 

[texansfan]

Beckham will be fine for this game it's being reported.

 

[chonce]

Yes and worth it. I've been doing really well taking the hook multiple times where everyone else pushed (3 times this year already). First game this year where I've needed to take a full point unless I forgot one. I think divisional games, especially during prime time, make a lot more sense to take the insurance. I've watched enough football to know that you'll be happy you did.

7
Cool. I bought down to a 3 (-127) but didn't have stomach to go further.

 

[bradyisgod]

Also a Giants outright win doesn't surprise me at all. They are playing extremely well despite injuries. I think if you want to bet Eagles taking some insurance is smart.

 

[bradyisgod]

7
Cool. I bought down to a 3 (-127) but didn't have stomach to go further.

I think that's fine. Like you, I hate going more than the hook - and often I hate even taking the hook. You did right and the EV of taking the hook or the full point is probably so close it doesn't matter one way or the other. I guess it's a spot where you go with your gut and just place your bet. Glad to be on your side, I like your plays and I'm usually lined up. Fly eagles fly!

 

[DC.]

I think Eagles roll by 7+

 

[bradyisgod]

I think Eagles roll by 7+

I hope you're right!

 

[Baronman]

Brady , your not God.You think you are though. Where did you get Patriots -7 .When line was 10 all over.Show us the ticket.I forgot you only show winning tickets. Never the losers like Saints& Texas . Again you have to show both.Im Suprised nobody calls you OUT.On these made up lines,Good luck tonight hope you win.Please show your ticket either way ok .

 

[MoneyMiller]

gl brady whats the vig on 2.5? -150

 

[Eccocide]

Brady, I appreciate your info and whatnot but baronman does have a point. Pretty much every line you post is a half to 1 pt better than what is available. When you lose, you aren't accounting for the juice with your units. Its all good if you are buying pts but you should make it clear as it looks shady when you post very stale or unavailable lines. Anyway, good luck tonight.

 

[TheWorldIsMine]

Good luck. Eli doesn't fair too well versus Philly so it's a good play. Better run game, defense, and playing at home makes it a logical choice.

 

[texansfan]

The 7 could have been had very early in the week, or of course it could have been bought down. The numbers I use are from a yearly contest I'm in. The lines are put out every Wednesday, so of course they can move a lot before Sunday. That's the main reason I always give my number and say it's for a contest. I would never use those lines to keep a valid record. For example, here are the line I'm required to use for this weeks games.

Thursday:
Atlanta at N.O. +3

Sunday:
K.C. at Minn-3.5
Miami at Tenn -2.5
Washington at Jets -5.5
Arizona at Pitts +3
Cinn at Buffalo pk
Chicago at Detroit -3
Denver at Cleve +5
Houston at Jacksonville +1
Carolina at Seattle -6.5
Baltimore at San Fran +2.5
San Diego at Green Bay -10
New England at Indy +7

Monday Night:
Giants at Phila -3.5

 

[bradyisgod]

Brady , your not God.You think you are though. Where did you get Patriots -7 .When line was 10 all over.Show us the ticket.I forgot you only show winning tickets. Never the losers like Saints& Texas . Again you have to show both.Im Suprised nobody calls you OUT.On these made up lines,Good luck tonight hope you win.Please show your ticket either way ok .

I got the line at -8. The line jumped to 10 for the people who waited and waited. I took it down to a touchdown. There was clear value on the bet when it was 8, and I've said in almost every single post I make I've been experimenting with taking points this year (anyone who reads my posts knows that). So that makes two games this year where I took a point. I don't post my plays to help you or anyone else out. I do it to keep track of what I'm betting. The colts backdoor covered in that game and I pushed. Just another game where it's worked out for me.

On a side note - I'm not on here to prove anything to you or anyone else. I'm not on here to make friends. I'm on here to make money. All my plays in my record are posted.

 

[bradyisgod]

Brady, I appreciate your info and whatnot but baronman does have a point. Pretty much every line you post is a half to 1 pt better than what is available. When you lose, you aren't accounting for the juice with your units. Its all good if you are buying pts but you should make it clear as it looks shady when you post very stale or unavailable lines. Anyway, good luck tonight.

Not really. Everyone knows the Patriots line opened up way below 10. The people who got it at 10 waited until it hopped way up (and a lot of value was lost). It doesn't look shady because in almost every post I make I tell people I'm experimenting the season with buying the hook or points. It's very clear. People just want to make a big deal out of nothing.

 

[texansfan]

The 7 was there very early in the week. This site, like most others, likes for posters to use a line available close to kick off.

 

[bradyisgod]

The 7 was there very early in the week. This site, like most others, likes for posters to use a line available close to kick off.

I should have took the line at 7. I waited a little too long and got it at -8 and took a point to keep it at a touchdown. If you read my posts at all, I've talked about how I hate taking games for more than a touchdown unless I have a lot of information telling me to do so.

As far as how people prefer I post my bet on a given line - I post my line when I place my bet. Period. If it's close to kick-off, great. If it's right before the game starts, that's fine too. Again, I'm doing this to make money. Not to appeal to what everyone on the forum thinks is the proper way to place a bet. I place the bet when there is the most value to be had depending on where the line is at and how it's moved (in my opinion). If people want to follow it, cool. If not, oh well. For example, I'm not going to post a bet on a line I think is -5 if I predict it will go down to -3 and there's more value to be had (like tonight). BOL buddy.

 

[Eccocide]

All I was saying is that ppl are here to converse and compare picks, and Im sure some follo. It doesn't really help posting plays or lines that no one can get. I get you are here to track yourself and that's fine. Doesn't matter to me either way. GL!

 

[texansfan]

All I was saying is that ppl are here to converse and compare picks, and Im sure some follo. It doesn't really help posting plays or lines that no one can get. I get you are here to track yourself and that's fine. Doesn't matter to me either way. GL!

That's what I stated in my earlier post. There are those who buy early, or buy points, but that should be noted and the juice listed. I'm like most here, I come here for info. There are posters I read, and there are those like Russ who are nothing but an act.