Bradyisgod's MNF Play 10.05.15

[bradyisgod]

Seattle -9.5 (+1.5 units)

Every trend points to Seattle being the pick here. Do not talk yourself out of the bet by watching line movement or worrying about who the public is on, even still I expect more money to go on Seattle at home later, so I'm grabbing the line now. The public likes home teams espec. on MNF. Talking yourself out of games is easy to do when everyone is swinging one way - in this case just pick the better team. I know this is redneck logic but it applies in more games than you would think. I won't post up all the stats because TCG already posted them, I double checked them an they are accurate. The Seahawks are going to make Stafford's life a living hell vs. the pass as Seattle's pass coverage is some of the best in the game. Lions are 0-4 ATS on MNF.

Seattle is the clear play here.


*A note on taking points. The line is at -10 for me and I did take half a point. It may not always be necessary in games like these but I'd rather take insurance on decisions where:
A) Teams have a history of playing each other close. Not the case in tonight's game. I took half a point when everyone pushed at 3 for Ravens vs. Steelers and cashed it. Yes, the Ravens got lucky to have the kicker miss multiple field goals but the point still stands. They play each other close all the time and taking a field goal win is a must in games like that.
B) Lines that are over 10. Teams often don't care about covering and when lines are over 10, the value of winning by a touchdown and a field goal is nice here. I expect Seattle to still have plenty of value at -10 but I am taking the extra half point here.

I do not advocate taking the juice in most plays but in close games or games 10+ I like it. I took 1/2 point on the NO vs Dallas game last night and decision wise it was still the right call. Had the kicker made that field goal, everyone is pushing and I'm cashing. It doesn't always work out that way, but in games where the skill level of both teams are close - again I like the insurance. 9/10 that kicker makes that field goal and we cash. We ended up covering but the result is not the point, it's figuring out if you made the correct decision over the long run to take the points or not.

On par to bank another nice year in the NFL. Went 5-1 in my plays yesterday, let's hope it continues. BOL to both sides tonight!

 

[Winning$$]

Love the play. Best of luck. I was one of those people that took the Ravens at -3 and lucky to get a push. I use a local bookie so I can't buy down points like most of the online books.

 

[Ace2015]

red-neck logic is right. This Seattle team is not as talented as everyone seems to think. Anyone can look tough at home against a bears team with a starter with the worst QBR of available quarterbacks, a back up running back, and no one to throw the ball to. The offense still was 2-13 on third downs against a terrible bears defense. And only led 6-0 at half time with a kick return touchdown in second half. While Detroit is 0-3 they have played quality teams all year. Tate has something to prove against his former team and Calvin against Williams is a HUGE mismatch. While I think Seattle's home field is enough to win it, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit pulled It off. I'm taking them to cover, just waiting for public to make it 10.5

BOL though

 

[bradyisgod]

red-neck logic is right. This Seattle team is not as talented as everyone seems to think. Anyone can look tough at home against a bears team with a starter with the worst QBR of available quarterbacks, a back up running back, and no one to throw the ball to. The offense still was 2-13 on third downs against a terrible bears defense. And only led 6-0 at half time with a kick return touchdown in second half. While Detroit is 0-3 they have played quality teams all year. Tate has something to prove against his former team and Calvin against Williams is a HUGE mismatch. While I think Seattle's home field is enough to win it, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit pulled It off. I'm taking them to cover, just waiting for public to make it 10.5

BOL though

You made two assumptions, neither which I agree with.

On redneck logic - I was just talking about picking the better team and having it being your only reason to bet said team seems like redneck logic. This isn't the case when it comes to this game. All the stats and previous history points towards picking Seattle. Playing the Lions just because "Tate has something to prove" just doesn't seem like a good enough reason to take them in this spot, even if there is a mismatch on the field. The Lions have played terrible and Stafford has as many interceptions as touchdowns. I just can't justify relying on a bad team to cover this game for the reasons you listed. I'm not making fun of your play - everyone is entitled to their own opinion and it's football so anything can happen in any one game. I see no compelling reason to back the Lions here unless this goes way over 10 points. BOL on your play.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

red-neck logic is right. This Seattle team is not as talented as everyone seems to think. Anyone can look tough at home against a bears team with a starter with the worst QBR of available quarterbacks, a back up running back, and no one to throw the ball to. The offense still was 2-13 on third downs against a terrible bears defense. And only led 6-0 at half time with a kick return touchdown in second half. While Detroit is 0-3 they have played quality teams all year. Tate has something to prove against his former team and Calvin against Williams is a HUGE mismatch. While I think Seattle's home field is enough to win it, I wouldn't be surprised if Detroit pulled It off. I'm taking them to cover, just waiting for public to make it 10.5

BOL though

You stated that the Lions have a chance to win SU......if they do, I will ban myself from ever posting on this site again......Seattle will NOT lose SU to this chump azz team!

 

[Greenbacks]

Good luck Brady

 

[Ace2015]

Listen, I played football for 17 years from D team to college as a corner turned safety. Stats don't mean a whole lot to me, I look at match-ups. There are many reasons I expect the Lions to contend in this game.

First: Lions Defense vs. Seattle's offense

Seattle lost their starting all-pro center, and the communication on the line has been off all year. 2-13 on third down against a terrible bears squad. No chemistry between Wilson and his new tight end, and HUGE lack of talent on the outside. Yes, their back up was able to churn yards, but against a terrible bears front 4. The Lions have Ngata (run stopper his whole career) and Walker up front who is also great at plugging holes. Detroit will blitz linebackers and be able to play one on one on the outside as nobody for seattle has been able to create separation this year. I'm looking at this match up, and I don't see a very favorable match up for seattle here at all. Maybe a slight nod to Wilson and his athleticism, but not 10 points.

Detroit Offense vs. Seattle Defense:

Obviously the nod goes to Seattle at home, but in my studies, not by much. With the loss of Maxwell, a big physical corner who was able to play press and disrupt routs with his size and strength, they will have to match up Cary Williams against CJ who is a finess corner who likes to under cut routes. This is a HUGE mismatch. They will need to devote Earl Thomas and Cam chancellor to help over the top. THIS should finally allow lanes to open up for the Detroit lions to establish a run, and it will be up to Stafford to be able to descipher whether they are playing the run or not. When the line backers creep up to stop the run, this will open up huge opportunities for slant routes from the slot receivers with Thomas and Chancellor helping out in coverage. When the line backers drop back to cover the slot, this should allow 5-6 yards per rush. The Seahawks have allowed over 100 yards on the ground this year, they have a pass rushing front 4, not a run stopping front 4. I'm telling you, I play the game, I know the game. This is not as one sided as you think. The stats, do not play the game, the players do.


But like I said, good luck.

 

[Ace2015]

If the Lions can take advantage of the mismatches and establish a run game that the seahawks will have to cover, watch out. This game could come down to the wire.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

If the Lions can take advantage of the mismatches and establish a run game that the seahawks will have to cover, watch out. This game could come down to the wire.

The worst cappers I've ever encountered were former football players/other sports as well.

 

[Ace2015]

Does it appear that I'm the worst capper you've ever encountered? You're a wise ass. I'll stick to my own thread. Good luck.

 

[bradyisgod]

If the Lions can take advantage of the mismatches and establish a run game that the seahawks will have to cover, watch out. This game could come down to the wire.

The Lions currently have one of the worst running games in football. I wouldn't really bank on them establishing a running game because of one mismatch in the receiver slot. The Lions RB doesn't even make the first page of running backs when it comes to stats. You can downplay stats all you want - they are still an indicator (and a good one at that) of how a player or team is performing.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categoryst...pe=REG&statisticCategory=RUSHING&d-447263-p=1

As far as the "I've played college football" so I obviously know how to cap a game argument goes, I don't really think it lends a ton of stock into capping a football game. I heard you the first time when you said you played in college. What about my best friend who played deep snapper for Texas who can't cap a game to save his life? What about the NFL commentators who have played professional football, some hall of famers, who can't even cap the winning teams over half of the time? Playing the game and trying to cap a spread is completely different. You probably know the game better than someone who hasn't played college ball, but how much better will that make you at capping a point spread? My guess is not much.

I'm not on here to start an argument. We are obviously on different sides which is fine. The forum is here to talk about our plays and we won't always line up. I respect your opinions on the game but that doesn't mean I agree with them. BOL.

 

[bradyisgod]

Couldn't edit my last post. When it comes to stats, I meant to add in that players and coaches get fired for not putting up numbers every single year. Stats matter, especially when it shows that you can't even hit the first page of 50 RB's or you have as many picks as interceptions. Those are tell tale signs that both the RB and QB are under performing this year. As far as this game goes, I'm not seeing compelling numbers to bet the Lions as they have played terrible all year long. I just cannot bet a team who has played as bad as the Lions have this year. I did it with the Saints, but that's pretty rare and my play was really small. BOL again buddy.

 

[Ace2015]

You can't have a very good running game when you're only running the ball 10 times a game and Stafford is passing over 50 attempts. It's not the team's fault for the run game, it's the lack of balance and play calling. Trust me, I take into account all the stats and previous history, but most importantly I look at a teams chemistry on both sides of the ball. Seattle is not itself. Detroit has the playmakers to contend, it's all a matter of them sticking to a game plan. I have faith Jim Caldwell knows this. I've been capping games for over 10 years. I look at the lines, the line movement, the weather, the injuries, the stats, the upcoming games, everything. Trust me, there aren't many people going to run for many yards against the broncos or Vikings this year with those defenses. I respect your picks, there is a ton of logic behind that, and trust me, 75% of the country is only looking at the stats you mentioned. Good Luck, we can discuss it after the game and many more games to come.

 

[Ace2015]

But you're ONLY looking at things from a stat perspective, when your quarterback is dropping back 40-50 times a game, the Linebackers drop back in coverage, corners get help over the top and under cut routes. It's much more one dimensional and easy to pick of a pass. And for a runner, it's not very easy to establish anything getting the ball less than 10 times a game. Stats stats stats. You're missing the main picture. Jim Caldwell knows this, so does any other coach. They know they need to establish the run. They will. You will see.

 

[Ace2015]

Seattle's rush defense is not the same as Denver or Minnesota

 

[bradyisgod]

But you're ONLY looking at things from a stat perspective, when your quarterback is dropping back 40-50 times a game, the Linebackers drop back in coverage, corners get help over the top and under cut routes. It's much more one dimensional and easy to pick of a pass. And for a runner, it's not very easy to establish anything getting the ball less than 10 times a game. Stats stats stats. You're missing the main picture. Jim Caldwell knows this, so does any other coach. They know they need to establish the run. They will. You will see.

I'm not only looking at it from a stats perspective. All the reasons you mentioned in your first post are reasons I look for. The stats ARE important and that's my point. Numbers do matter, and if you've read any other thread I've posted you would know that I do look at many other factors aside from just statistics. I watch the games and base my decisions on what I see and the statistics I read. I see a Lions team that is playing very bad this year and a Seattle team that is under performing. When you throw in home field and MNF on top of that, it makes me want to stay away from the Lions.

 

[astra]

Good stuff guys! love it. Good luck to both but only one will win... but still, good reading... :aktion033

 

[bradyisgod]

Good stuff guys! love it. Good luck to both but only one will win... but still, good reading... :aktion033

That's right! It's the NFL and anything can happen. Nothing wrong with a friendly back and forth. BOL to Ace2015 and anyone on the Lions. +10 is a lot of points to cover and some experienced guys I know are also on Detroit. This is a tough game to cap.

 

[Justathought]

Listen, I played football for 17 years from D team to college as a corner turned safety. Stats don't mean a whole lot to me, I look at match-ups. There are many reasons I expect the Lions to contend in this game.

First: Lions Defense vs. Seattle's offense

Seattle lost their starting all-pro center, and the communication on the line has been off all year. 2-13 on third down against a terrible bears squad. No chemistry between Wilson and his new tight end, and HUGE lack of talent on the outside. Yes, their back up was able to churn yards, but against a terrible bears front 4. The Lions have Ngata (run stopper his whole career) and Walker up front who is also great at plugging holes. Detroit will blitz linebackers and be able to play one on one on the outside as nobody for seattle has been able to create separation this year. I'm looking at this match up, and I don't see a very favorable match up for seattle here at all. Maybe a slight nod to Wilson and his athleticism, but not 10 points.

Detroit Offense vs. Seattle Defense:

Obviously the nod goes to Seattle at home, but in my studies, not by much. With the loss of Maxwell, a big physical corner who was able to play press and disrupt routs with his size and strength, they will have to match up Cary Williams against CJ who is a finess corner who likes to under cut routes. This is a HUGE mismatch. They will need to devote Earl Thomas and Cam chancellor to help over the top. THIS should finally allow lanes to open up for the Detroit lions to establish a run, and it will be up to Stafford to be able to descipher whether they are playing the run or not. When the line backers creep up to stop the run, this will open up huge opportunities for slant routes from the slot receivers with Thomas and Chancellor helping out in coverage. When the line backers drop back to cover the slot, this should allow 5-6 yards per rush. The Seahawks have allowed over 100 yards on the ground this year, they have a pass rushing front 4, not a run stopping front 4. I'm telling you, I play the game, I know the game. This is not as one sided as you think. The stats, do not play the game, the players do.


But like I said, good luck.

thank you for your post. Honestly I was not sure what side to go with but your write up def swayed me to the eventual right side. Appreciate your time and effort and hope to see more from you in the future

thx
jat