NBA Playoffs: (3-2, -0.42 units)
Yesterday: (2-0, +5.00 units)
Won both plays yesterday. One I really like tonight. Analysis Below, feel free to add or dispute.
(Also just a note, 5* is not my highest play come playoff time in any sport. Usually 10* is. If anyone saw my NFL Playoff or college anything playoff picks recently, you saw a few 7*'s and 10*'s. Yes, I do usually bump my units come playoff time, regardless of the myth that a playoff game is just any other game. It's not any other game, things play out more accurately, things are more magnified, and thus I have more confidence in my plays. So my 5* is a very solid play, but not a game I'm going to hang my hat on or anything like that.)
5* Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat under 195.5
Overview
Bulls and Heat put up 217 last game in Miami. Short turnaround, and right back at it on Monday. Game on Saturday was emotional, crazy, and both teams came out with a lot of energy. Basis for this play is a play on energy/adrenaline, adjustments, and percentages. Can Shaq put up another monstrous game after a short turn around? Will Shaq be tired after playing 37 mins, above his season average? How will Wade recover from his cramping after he played 44 of 48 mins? Will Chicago make adjustments to slow him down? Will Gordon put up 30+ again after playing 44 mins too? How is JWill's knee responding? Udonis is out, Zo is questionable, depth is thin for the Heat, more tired starters in the game for too many minutes. Can Chicago make 13 3-pointers again? If they can't, how will they score with Shaq in the middle and no true center? Will Payton play extended minutes to monitor JWill's knee? If he does, lots of half court sets, and less JWill pushing it up the floor.
Shaq
If this game is going over or under first falls onto Miami first, then Chicago. So lets look at Miami first. I think Shaq blew his load in game 1, he's an older man now and I think he was playing on a little adrenaline, after all the guy waits all year from the playoffs, you know hes excited when they roll around. I don't see Shaq having this type of game again on this short turnaround. Hack-a-Shaq should also be a strategy for the Bulls. Shaq shot okay from the free throw stripe, 5/8, can't see him doing that again either.
Wade
Wade left the game with a supposive cramp in his calf/knee area. I would cramp too if I played 44 of 48 mins. Wade should be a little less explosive tonight. Chicago keys on Wade, using a Detroit-style defense at times trying to double or triple team him. Chicago is a very scrappy team and I think Skiles makes a few adjustments tonight to slow Wade down. I think with Shaq and Wade's games coming down a bit, it should decrease scoring.
Heat Depth and Injuries
JWill's knee tendinitis. How will he be tonight? he really is a catalyst that pushes the ball up the floor and shoots well from the outside. Gary Payton may see more minutes tonight to defend the perimeter and to give JWill a little rest. Payton does not push the ball up the floor like JWill. Zo is questionable, Udonis is suspended. Heat depth is thin. That means another night of huge minutes for a tired Shaq, and tired Wade who left the game with painful cramps. More Gary Payton, more TOINE in this game.
Last Game's FG%, 3 PT%, ETC
"No moral victories at this point in the season," Gordon said. "We've just got to figure out how to slow them down. I thought in the first half they had way too many fast-break points and in the key moments of the game we had some turnovers that really hurt us."
It should slow down. Heat can't afford to lose JWill for anymore games, and he should have his minutes monitored tonight. But law of percentages really should play a role in this one. Mainly, this stat:
Chicago Bulls 13/26 = 50% from 3 point land. The Bulls made 13 3-pointers, and took 26. Pat Riley made a point in his post-game press conference to empahsize that they must defend the perimter better. Let them drive it in to Shaq. The Bulls should have to settle for more outside jumpers tonight and the last time I checked this is Gordon, Nocioni, Hinrich and Duhon shooting, all nice solid shooters, but this isnt Bird, Jordan and co.
Ben Gordon also played 44 of 48 mins and should be as tired as Wade.
Good Luck...
Yesterday: (2-0, +5.00 units)
Won both plays yesterday. One I really like tonight. Analysis Below, feel free to add or dispute.
(Also just a note, 5* is not my highest play come playoff time in any sport. Usually 10* is. If anyone saw my NFL Playoff or college anything playoff picks recently, you saw a few 7*'s and 10*'s. Yes, I do usually bump my units come playoff time, regardless of the myth that a playoff game is just any other game. It's not any other game, things play out more accurately, things are more magnified, and thus I have more confidence in my plays. So my 5* is a very solid play, but not a game I'm going to hang my hat on or anything like that.)
5* Chicago Bulls/Miami Heat under 195.5
Overview
Bulls and Heat put up 217 last game in Miami. Short turnaround, and right back at it on Monday. Game on Saturday was emotional, crazy, and both teams came out with a lot of energy. Basis for this play is a play on energy/adrenaline, adjustments, and percentages. Can Shaq put up another monstrous game after a short turn around? Will Shaq be tired after playing 37 mins, above his season average? How will Wade recover from his cramping after he played 44 of 48 mins? Will Chicago make adjustments to slow him down? Will Gordon put up 30+ again after playing 44 mins too? How is JWill's knee responding? Udonis is out, Zo is questionable, depth is thin for the Heat, more tired starters in the game for too many minutes. Can Chicago make 13 3-pointers again? If they can't, how will they score with Shaq in the middle and no true center? Will Payton play extended minutes to monitor JWill's knee? If he does, lots of half court sets, and less JWill pushing it up the floor.
Shaq
If this game is going over or under first falls onto Miami first, then Chicago. So lets look at Miami first. I think Shaq blew his load in game 1, he's an older man now and I think he was playing on a little adrenaline, after all the guy waits all year from the playoffs, you know hes excited when they roll around. I don't see Shaq having this type of game again on this short turnaround. Hack-a-Shaq should also be a strategy for the Bulls. Shaq shot okay from the free throw stripe, 5/8, can't see him doing that again either.
Wade
Wade left the game with a supposive cramp in his calf/knee area. I would cramp too if I played 44 of 48 mins. Wade should be a little less explosive tonight. Chicago keys on Wade, using a Detroit-style defense at times trying to double or triple team him. Chicago is a very scrappy team and I think Skiles makes a few adjustments tonight to slow Wade down. I think with Shaq and Wade's games coming down a bit, it should decrease scoring.
Heat Depth and Injuries
JWill's knee tendinitis. How will he be tonight? he really is a catalyst that pushes the ball up the floor and shoots well from the outside. Gary Payton may see more minutes tonight to defend the perimeter and to give JWill a little rest. Payton does not push the ball up the floor like JWill. Zo is questionable, Udonis is suspended. Heat depth is thin. That means another night of huge minutes for a tired Shaq, and tired Wade who left the game with painful cramps. More Gary Payton, more TOINE in this game.
Last Game's FG%, 3 PT%, ETC
"No moral victories at this point in the season," Gordon said. "We've just got to figure out how to slow them down. I thought in the first half they had way too many fast-break points and in the key moments of the game we had some turnovers that really hurt us."
It should slow down. Heat can't afford to lose JWill for anymore games, and he should have his minutes monitored tonight. But law of percentages really should play a role in this one. Mainly, this stat:
Chicago Bulls 13/26 = 50% from 3 point land. The Bulls made 13 3-pointers, and took 26. Pat Riley made a point in his post-game press conference to empahsize that they must defend the perimter better. Let them drive it in to Shaq. The Bulls should have to settle for more outside jumpers tonight and the last time I checked this is Gordon, Nocioni, Hinrich and Duhon shooting, all nice solid shooters, but this isnt Bird, Jordan and co.
Ben Gordon also played 44 of 48 mins and should be as tired as Wade.
Good Luck...
