Boxslayer's College Football Week 1

[Boxslayer]

2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
-Have bet on every BCS bowl game past two years and have not lost any.
-Have never had a documented losing CFB season at therx.

I cap the games all week, one at a time, as they stand out and a selection gets made - it gets posted. Usually I have analysis with it.

I dont specialize in any conference in particular. I play all of the major conferences. I dont get involved with the Tulsa's vs. Utah State's and usually skip those types of games unless I am able to catch some of those small market games on TV and feel comfortable betting them after I have seen them play and can get a better read on them.

I usually play in the neighborhood of 5 games per week on average and will very rarely play any more than that so I can maintain an advantage.

95% of my plays are rated 1*-5*, 5* being the highest, and will occasionally throw a 6*, 7* etc out there, especially during bowl season. * = unit.

Excited for the season, good luck.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Box

Welcome back and wish you the best this season.

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Miami (Ohio) Redhawks -3.5 -110

Would have played this a bit higher if I was on the key number 3 here. Really looking to fade some of the SEC this year and this looks like a good place to start.

This Vanderbilt team should be bad this year folks, and this is moreso a play of experience vs. inexperience in the early going parts of the season.

Vandy replaces their entire offensive line from last year. This will be a completely new unit, and the worst part is these new guys stepping in didn't get much of any reps last year - if any. Last years group started every game and they are all gone now. Earl Bennett, who was the lone brightspot on a putrid passing attack is gone. George Smith a projected starter is doubtful. Linebackers gone. This whole team is rebuilding, and opening up on the road is not a good place for that rebuilding process to begin. I see a lot of growing pains.

Miami(OH) wants this game bad. Start it off opening day with a win vs. an SEC school, at home, and declare to the college football world that they are ready to compete for the MAC title this year. A very experienced team overall whose got a little bit of a question mark at QB, but not enough to make me realize that the Redhawks are too experienced, too solid and are competing for big things this year. Redhawk linebackers are heart and soul of the defense and Mullins is the reigning MAC defensive player of the year who will be all over the field. Also looked at the under here, but will stick with playing the Redhawks to come out with some cohesiveness, and fire on all cylinders at home vs. a team that is very green and finding its identity worse than Roxyguy in the rubber room.

Miami(OH) 24
Vanderbilt 13

 

[Boxslayer]

Welcome back and wish you the best this season.

Thanks Woof. Seen you say a few kind words in some of my threads towards on the end of the season. So I appreciate that. I always make a point to find your thread and especially reconsider/consider betting your big plays.

GL bud

 

[cjv_11]

gl this year box, will be tagging along on about every play!!

 

[krk1030]

BOL this season.

 

[Jetplane]

Just my input: I'm on Vandy this game. I see the Redhawks Defense giving up a lot of yardage in this game by air and land. As far as experience goes... I didn't look into that aspect so I suppose your capping may prove you well. Goodluck!

 

[AlwaysKeen]

GL boxslayer...

 

[UoweDucks]

Boxslayer,
Knock em dead this year!

 

[MajorGCG]

BOX! What's up man? I'm with you on Miami pounding Vandy. Hopefully, our Gators get healthy so we can make a run at the title! Look forward to your picks this year.

 

[shockker21]

Boxslayer, nice to see you posting.. Always enjoy your insights... Hope to have you around the entire football season... in my opinion your one of the best around here... keep up the good work

shockker21

 

[seanm0520]

The best of luck to you this year. Crush 'em again!

 

[SaltyVeteran]

On the RedHawks myself. Good Luck ope:

 

[dave11486]

Glad to see you here Box. The pick looks good. Good luck.

 

[hm2.0]

gl, boxslayer.

 

[Boxslayer]

3* NC State/South Carolina UNDER 44.5 -110

Pretty solid play here tonight on the under, that I wanted to push to a 4*, but didn't want to go overboard 1st week with some questions. Still, a solid play for a few reasons.

1st NC State has 2 major injuries as their two best offensive players are out - starting RB Jemalle Eugene, and #1 WR Donald Bowens. While NC State has a very good backup in Andre Brown, Brown still has not really carried the ball 20+ times in 2 years. He was injured last year, lost his job to Eugene, and Eugene is widely considered the best offensive player on this team. Bowens is clearly the go to #1 receiver, with every other receiver on the team having less than 12 catches last year.

All that said, the NC State offensive line was so desperate they moved two defensive tackles and converted them to O-linemen to plug 2 spots on the O-Line. No chemistry, little experience.

To top it all off they start a redshirt freshman QB taking his first career snap at a wild South Carolina SEC stadium on Thursday night.

South Carolinas defense is very underrated, and the return of Jasper Brinkley will clog the middle as he is one of the top linebackers in the conference. Norwood is another playmaker, and they have an NFL lockdown corner in Captain Munnerlyn. SC should do very well on defense with their home crowd behind them and a very green NC ST offense.

USC's offense is what scares most under bettors when dealing with Spurrier coached teams. However, Spurrier has relinquished play calling duties this year to Steve Spurrier Jr. So with the Ole Ball Coach stepping away, will the creativity and on the fly innovation be there?

Spurrier moves into this season with yet another QB controversy, as 4 guys could potentially take snaps for the Gamecocks. They will start with Beecher, who is a very average QB. With Jr. calling plays for a QB low on experience, I expect to see a lot of safe passes to try and methodically move the ball up the field. The old 2-headed monster at RB is gone, and all that is left is a bruising Mike Davis and co. No more backs that are truly game breakers and can bust one off. The NC State defensive line is the strength of the team, and if they can shut down Davis and force Beecher into obvious passing situations, it will help create quick series for the Gamecocks.

A few intangibles clinch this bet for me and make it solid:

1. The new NCAA clocks changes to speed up games and keep the clock running.
2. NC State has been a historical under team of late.
3. The Gamecocks total has not gone over 44.5 in either of their first two games of the season since 2002. That means the Cocks traditionally are slow starters, and have a lot of unders early in the year - even with Spurrier at the helm. In fact, the Spurrier coached Cocks the past 2 years went for totals of 42 and 28 in the first two games of the 2007 season, and 15 and 18 in the first two games of the 2006 season.

South Carolina 26
NC State 13

 

[sdf]

50.5 was a much better number on scar/ncst. lost a lot of value already with 44.5. i like the 1h under though. expecting a slow start for both teams

 

[Cappin'Guru]

50.5 was a much better number on scar/ncst. lost a lot of value already with 44.5. i like the 1h under though. expecting a slow start for both teams

A slow start would be expected here. Both newly acquainted QBs to their system and the fact that its under the light on ESPNU. Let's see how that one goes, it has value.

BOL

 

[Boxslayer]

50.5 was a much better number on scar/ncst. lost a lot of value already with 44.5. i like the 1h under though. expecting a slow start for both teams

i know, but i dont bet early lines for a lot of reasons. plus, it doesnt do anyone on therx any good if i post 50.5 because the majority of bettors on here are recreational bettors that bet later in the week so i try to post lines and keep a record that will allow them to make decisions for when they make their bets.

 

[BenLaw47]

Box,
Good to see you posting, as I always enjoy your threads... You got any realistic predictions for our Gators this year? I am usually a huge pessimist, but once Harvin and Spikes are healthy, if we can stay healthy, I feel really good about the season. I think the biggest difference will be our new emphasis on tighter coverage on "D" from Coach Bedford. Look forward to your posts this year.