Boxslayer's CFB Week 9 (26-15, +22.80 units, 63%)

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 26-15, +22.80 units, 63%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 151-93, +113.74 units, 62%
Last Week: 5-2, +2.60 units
17-6 past 3 weeks.

2* West Virginia Mountaineers -3 -120

Public and squares are salivating over the obvious underdog Auburn. Looks great on paper. SEC team getting points? Piece of cake. Not so fast.

Auburn has been horrendous this year, and now they start a new QB making his first road start. I'm not sold that Kodi is the savior of this offense in his 1st road start. Auburn has simplified the playbook and still running an uncharacteristic spread offense trying to fit square pegs in round holes. Auburn is RB University trying to finesse people. They dont have the athletes on offense.

Neither team's season has been up to par, but WVU can salvage their season in their Super Bowl tonight by beating an almighty SEC team. Huge motivation edge to the Mountaineers in this game who have always played the SEC well - and it starts with the return of SEC Killer Pat White. Huge QB edge to the Mountaineers in this game. Motivation, QB....All I would need is the coaching edge to complete the trifecta, but Tuberville has to get the nod - keeping this play small at 2 units.

Auburn has always thrived on QB sacks and that is where their defense has always started. Quentin Groves, Tray Blackmon, these guys love rushing the QB. But Groves is gone and Blackmon is out and the Mountaineers are 7th in the country in least sacks given up. White has been passing the ball more this year and he has given this offense balance. Noel Devine is a tthreat to score everytime he touches the ball, and don't be surprised to see WVU open the playbook and throw the kitchen sink at Auburn tonight in an effort to salvage a win and save their season.

WVU's defense has been playing well. They havent played the schedule that Auburn has, but with 3 straight wins - they have the confidence heading into this game with a head of steam and their star QB back, while Auburn has dropped 3 of 4 and can't figure out why on offense.

Auburn has been prone to the letdown game over the years. Miss State, USF, you name it - Auburn plays down to the level of competition and they wont be able to match WVU's intensity tonight.

Motivated home team with a reasonable spread vs. a team with no offensive identity.

West Virginia 24
Auburn 17

 

[MistaFlava]

Aren't you happy you get to go 1 on 1 against a PS2 tonight? Know you love it.

 

[CowboyT]

Same side Box. Good luck to us.

:toast:

 

[dave11486]

Great choice Box, I am all about this tonight as well.

 

[wowstrongpick]

lets go mounties .!!!!!

 

[Boxslayer]

Aren't you happy you get to go 1 on 1 against a PS2 tonight? Know you love it.

I honestly havent looked at your thread. I'm done crushing you. Good luck.

PS - I will say there is one thing you need to learn, and I mean this sincerely, and that is you don't see the big picture. If you believe in your PS2 system, then stick to your guns. Don't flip flop every 2 weeks. Whether it wins or loses tonight is not the determination of how it will fare. It's all about the long-term and the big picture and if it is fundamentally strong, it will win long term. So I can really care less if I go against the PS2 tonight or any night. I believe in what I do and it wins for me long term. See whatever your strategy is out long term and I hope it works out for you. I honestly think the video game thing is as good as flipping a coin bc you dont account for variance. But to each his own. My main issue with you is your fudging records. As long as you keep a somewhat clean record, I dont have any problems. But I couldnt sit back and watch you put 30-2 ATS bc you went back and simmed 20 games after the fact. You admit you probably made a mistake, and you cleaned it up. No problems. GL tonight and moving forward.

 

[mpn]

Thanks Box.

 

[mws]

Nice call, once again.

 

[dayang23]

GJ Box, Guess that video game was WAY OFF..LMFAO

 

[Illini]

ope: Boxslayer = stud

 

[MistaFlava]

Nice call, you defeated the PS2 and kept your great season going.

 

[Boxslayer]

Nice call, you defeated the PS2 and kept your great season going.

I didnt defeat the PS2, I defeated the books. GL

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Kansas Jayhawks -1 -110

I like this play here for a few reasons, and I am keeping it small for a few reasons.

I think Kansas has a good recipe to defeat Texas Tech:

1. Kansas is at home. Big plus. Kansas has 2 losses this year - both on the road. 4-0 at home, they are tough in their backyard. Meanwhile, Texas Tech can be very bad on the road historically, and they can lay some pretty nasty eggs when they get out of their comfy surroundings.

2. Score for Score - Todd Reesing and this Kansas offense can go score for score with Tech if they need to. Tech's defense is bad, especially their pass defense. Their pass D has been lit up all year, and Reesing has comparable numbers to Harrell and can match him score for score if necessary.

3. Battle tested - Kansas has played a much tougher schedule than Tech. In fact, Tech hasnt faced any top 25 teams yet.

4. Coaching, defense and special teams - Kansas is by the far the best defense that Tech has faced this season. Couple that with the road and it should slow them down. I'll take Mangina over Leach in this type of game. Mangina has shown he can win it. In regards to special teams, Tech is pulling students out of the stands to kick FGs it has gotten so bad. In a game where you won't want to waste an offensive possession and have a drive come up empty, give me the team that doesnt anticipate any major problems with extra points. Tech has missed 6 PATs this year and half their FGs.

Tech in a potential look ahead spot vs. Texas, but that is not a big deal as Tech has won every game for the past 6 years before their annual UT showdown. I'm actually keeping this play small because Kansas is off a tough loss to Oklahoma, and I think Tech's offense is good.

Bottom line, you have the better coached team, the more fundamentally sound team, playing at home, with more motivation, comparable QBs, in a look ahead spot for Tech and they have no defense.

Kansas 34
Texas Tech 28

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Oklahoma State Cowboys +12 -110

I have NOT officially played this yet because I still think I *may* be able to get 13 closer to kickoff.

This is the date I have circled for Texas to struggle, and possibly have the outright loss.

Let downs come when you let your guard down. I was on Texas last week to cover over Missouri. I was on Texas the week before to cover over Oklahoma. I have a good feel for them right now. After big wins over Oklahoma and then Missouri, I think it is natural for these Longhorns to take a sigh right here, and say "we are 20-2 vs. the Cowboys lifetime, we've got a good chance we are unanimous #1. we got this one and then tech and we are done with the gauntlet."

Oklahoma has a multi-dimensional attack, unlike Missouri, that can attack the Longhorn defense - which is a weakness. Missouri is going to throw it 50 times with Chase Daniel. OKST will have some more balance. They have a stud WR in Bryant. They have a QB in Zac Robinson who is very efficient AND he can make plays with his legs. And they have a strong running attack that is #5 in the country. OKST has the #7 total offense and #4 scoring offense for a reason, and I think they can score plenty to keep up with Texas. Another thing is Texas relies a lot for their defense to get pressure on the QB. But with the scrambling ability of Robinson and terrific line play that has lead the Cowboys to the #4 ranking in the country in sacks allowed, I think the Longhorns will have a hard time putting the Cowboy offense into 3rd and longs, and the Cowboys will be able to convert plenty of 3rd downs, keep drives alive, and keep the Longhorn offense on the sideline.

Texas meanwhile is one dimensional and they rely too much on Colt McCoy to be perfect every game and I think this is where it stops. Regardless of what the stats will tell you, Texas has difficulty running the ball. That will continue vs. a Cowboy defense that is good against the run and is one of the better run defenses the Longhorns will face this season. This is also one of the most efficient pass defenses they will face.

Special teams and turnover margin also go to OKST.

Overall, this is a big game for both teams, but I really think OKST comes out a little more focused, a little more fresh, and with a little more intensity.

Oklahoma State 31
Texas 27

 

[Addict101]

2* Kansas Jayhawks -1 -110

I like this play here for a few reasons, and I am keeping it small for a few reasons.

I think Kansas has a good recipe to defeat Texas Tech:

1. Kansas is at home. Big plus. Kansas has 2 losses this year - both on the road. 4-0 at home, they are tough in their backyard. Meanwhile, Texas Tech can be very bad on the road historically, and they can lay some pretty nasty eggs when they get out of their comfy surroundings.

2. Score for Score - Todd Reesing and this Kansas offense can go score for score with Tech if they need to. Tech's defense is bad, especially their pass defense. Their pass D has been lit up all year, and Reesing has comparable numbers to Harrell and can match him score for score if necessary.

3. Battle tested - Kansas has played a much tougher schedule than Tech. In fact, Tech hasnt faced any top 25 teams yet.

4. Coaching, defense and special teams - Kansas is by the far the best defense that Tech has faced this season. Couple that with the road and it should slow them down. I'll take Mangina over Leach in this type of game. Mangina has shown he can win it. In regards to special teams, Tech is pulling students out of the stands to kick FGs it has gotten so bad. In a game where you won't want to waste an offensive possession and have a drive come up empty, give me the team that doesnt anticipate any major problems with extra points. Tech has missed 6 PATs this year and half their FGs.

Tech in a potential look ahead spot vs. Texas, but that is not a big deal as Tech has won every game for the past 6 years before their annual UT showdown. I'm actually keeping this play small because Kansas is off a tough loss to Oklahoma, and I think Tech's offense is good.

Bottom line, you have the better coached team, the more fundamentally sound team, playing at home, with more motivation, comparable QBs, in a look ahead spot for Tech and they have no defense.

Kansas 34
Texas Tech 28

Great to see you liking the Jayhawks as well. This line is begging for TTU money.

 

[AlwaysKeen]

excellent stuff boxslayer...

 

[duckhunter]

gl, box, like em both.

 

[shizzle]

texas should cover against okie state. texas does always struggle with them however mack brown does not want texas to play from behind again as we do every year with a come from behind win.

 

[Boxslayer]

Great to see you liking the Jayhawks as well. This line is begging for TTU money.

CAREFUL. Something doesn't feel right about this game, and this is actually a play I debated laying off altogether. I may end up downgrading this to a 1*. You rarely see the "reverse trap", but of all of the games I have seen this year, this one has some of the most potential. I have seen everyone and their mother recognize this game as a potential trap line, and wanting to play this blindly bc the "books are trying to tell you something"....that is not a good thing when lots of members of the public and squares are recognizing this game as a "trap". I have seen Tech play 3 games now, and their offense is very good and they are like 6-0 the week before the Texas game and dont think they are in much danger of looking ahead here. That all being said, my writeup indicates many more reasons to play the Jayhawks, and for now I am sticking with the play. Something deep in my gut tells me I may be getting off this play and I am monitoring line movement and action right now. Stay tuned.

 

[Boxslayer]

excellent stuff boxslayer...

thanks pags. are you still posting these days? gl