Boxslayer's CFB Week 8 (21-13, +20.20 units, 62%)

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 21-13, +20.20 units, 62%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 146-91, +111.14 units, 62%
Last Week: 5-1, +8.70 units
12-4 past 3 weeks.


2* Texas A&M Aggies +21 -110

Texas Tech off an emotional home OT win now travels on the road to the 12th man in a sandwich spot with Kansas and Texas on deck in an in-state rivalry game and laying 21 points of road chalk.

Texas A&M has two big strengths in this game:

1. #48 Passing attack lead by Jerrod Johnson is solid with an 11/4 TD/INT ratio. This attack is good enough to backdoor or light up enough points on the board to make this lofty spread difficult to cover.
2. Texas A&M has the #14 pass defense in the land and that coupled with the 12th man should stiffen up what has been a poor A&M defense.

Tech has given up at least 28 points the past 2 games (while A&M has scored 28+ their past 2 games), and Tech has given up at least 19 points in 4 of their 6 games played this year. A&M has meanwhile scored 21 points or more in 5 of their 6 games played, and Tech's pass defense is #96 in the land.

A&M doesnt have a big game for another 3-4 weeks with Oklahoma. This is a huge game for the Aggies, just in terms of beating an in-state rival who is undefeated and ranked high, and it is this type of win that can make a bad season feel so much better and erase the memory of 2 straight losses. A&M coaches playing the media game perfectly, "praying for rain" to stop the Tech offense and challenging his team saying they arent good enough.

Seems like a solid bet that the fired up home team Aggies will score at least 24-28 this week considering that they have done it all year and Tech has shown prone to giving up that many points. I am guessing that if A&M scores 24-28, and the spread is 21 that is a minimum of 45-49 points in this game for A&M. With an emotionally drained Tech offense playing in a very hostile envrinment in a rivalry game with Kansas on deck, I don't expect Tech to be sharp.

Tech's schedule has been VERY weak to date, and all of their offensive numbers are inflated. The toughest team they have faced this year was Kansas State, not exactly world beaters.

Texas Tech 38
Texas A&M 24

 

[SouthernMiss]

Good Luck Box%^_ Nice call on Mississippi State last week

 

[Broke]

awesome :aktion033

 

[newmeat]

Like it, GL Box.

 

[SaltyVeteran]

My Atari came up with the same result. Looks Solid. Good Luck.

 

[vinnyvegas]

I think line could go higher but still think you cover at 21. GL on game & rest of plays.

 

[trentmoney]

if you were a real handicapper this play would be at least 20*

 

[jimmymo]

Box, curious if you have thoughts on the Duke/Miami game....I know you had Miami last week (in what should have been a cover if you look at the boxscore)?

I have Duke +5.5 and am considering buying back with Miami -3....not for a middle so much, as rolling over the top....the more I look at it, the more I think Miami's speed will give Duke fits..anyway, Thx and GL...

:toast:

 

[TicketMan+]

Good Luck Box

 

[oldmanTED]

Box:

Well done as usual. It's always a pleasure to read your thoughts. Your effort is very much appreciated. Continued success throughout the year. :toast:

 

[DetectiveMcNulty]

Looks very solid. Good write up, however could you please alter the settings of teams on tecmo super bowl to match TT and TAMU and then simulate it?? I would feel much more comfortable if TAMU covered...

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Hawaii Warriors +24 -110

Hard to bet against Boise State on the Smurf Turf w/ an improved defense but Hawaii is not 24 points worse than Boise. This is only a 1* unit play and I am playing it small, but it still warrants a play.

Funaki is a playmaking QB and this game is turning into a rivalry of sorts. Funaki has lead this team to 2 straight wins, they are playing confident football right now, and this is a good game for them to show they are still a competitive program and get the new coach his 1st signature win. (Or 2nd is you count beating Fresno).

The only teams blowing out Hawaii are major D1 programs with too much talent such as FL, or UGA. But this game is still within Hawaii's wheelhouse and their talent level is on par with Boise. Boise is averaging 35 points at home and Hawaii is averaging 16 on the road (that includes playing at FL, at OR ST and AT FRESNO ST) 3 pretty solid road venues that have this number for Hawaii skewed.

Hawaii has allowed 29 points or less and 4 of their last 5. Theyve allowed 20 or less in 2 of their last 3 and 3 of their last 5. The only teams scoring 40+ on Hawaii are Oregon State and Florida. I think Boise needs 40+ to cover tonight.

Boise's offense is not the same as years past, they are doing it with defense now, but I think Funaki can move this team and get them on the board and make it difficult for Boise to cover this lofty number.

Boise State 34
Hawaii 16

 

[AR_23]

Insight on Hawaii's side for what seems the first time. BOL

 

[Boxslayer]

Insight on Hawaii's side for what seems the first time. BOL

huh?

 

[cashflow50]

gl box

 

[Illini]

Box, any thoughts on Miami-Duke, and VaTech-BC total? I wanna take Miami and Va Tech BC over, but only because the lines seem weird.

 

[TheShambler]

nice write ups ...good luck!

 

[Boxslayer]

workin on plays now illini
by the way thanks to OMT and everyone else who shared a few thoughts here

 

[CowboyT]

Nice start Box. Good Luck today...

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Michigan Wolverines +24.5 -110

I am a believer in Penn State - in fact I wagered on them last week and I plan to wager on them next week at OSU as of now. While I don't think they are anywhere near National Title worthy yet, they have are definitely BCS Worthy in my mind and one of the few teams that have shown to be a solid top 5 team in my mind. There are a few flaws with this Penn State team though, and one of them is the Michigan Wolverines. This team just can't seem to beat Michigan, and in college athletics you are usually going to be in a +EV situation when you wager on these types of teams that inexplicably have the other teams number.

Moreso, this Penn State team has not played or beaten anyone in the current top 25. So all of the teams they have beaten this year have proven to be shams. Meanwhile, Michigan is a couple of plays from being a 4-2 team and their losses don't look as bad as once thought. Their loss to Utah was said to be one of the major upsets in CFB, but Utah turned out to be an undefeated team and trucking right through everyone. Nore Dame's loss was hailed to be a loss to last years Notre Dame team, and this years ND team is on the verge of cracking the top 25. The loss to Toledo is inexplicable, but for my money I am going to bet Michigan was caught in a look ahead to this game right here.

Don't get me wrong, Michigan has not played good football. And there are a lot of reasons for that. But their defense has been respectable and it is their defense that is making me make this wager.

Michigan is under heavy scrutiny at home, I actually like the fact that this team can get out of Ann Arbor, get away from their fans and get out on the road. This Michigan team has had PSUs number for a long time, and I think PSU is EXPECTED to win this game - no if's ands or buts about it. And that is a lot of pressure on a team to be a lock to defeat a team that has beaten them 100 straight times.

You can say all you want about Rich Rodriguez's offense, and how he doesnt have the personnel right now to run it the way he wants to. Bottom line, is he is an offensive guru, he has been successful everywhere he has gone, and he has made a lot of head coaches look good along the way. He knows and his team knows this is a big game for Michigan to come out and be competitive in. It can erase a lot of things about this season and show he is on the right track. He WILL get creative on offense in this game, he WILL put up 14-17 points minimum in this game. And that is all Michigan will need to cover this lofty 24 point spread with their defense because their defense will hold PSU under 35.

Michigan has a solid run defense, and they get plenty of pressure on the QB - two ingredients to stopping this PSU attack. Michigan has a terrific special teams game, especially their punting unit which is #2 in the country and they will force PSU to march down the field and earn all of their points. They have allowed 25 points or less in 4 of their 6 games.

Unlike many teams PSU has faced, Michigan does have the athletes to prevent the quick scores on long bombs to match up with the speedy WR corps of PSU.

Michigan has always played up to the competition despite their struggles from the past two years. Wolverines are 11-5-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. They have won OUTRIGHT vs 6 of the last 7 opponents they have faced on the road that were ranked. They play well on the road as evidenced by their 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games.

Penn State, meanwhile, has struggled in conference play. Nittany Lions are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games and that includs their win last week vs. Wisky.

Blow out road win, coming back home a little too confident, and they have a pissed off Michigan team on deck who has had their number and can salvage some criticism with a win.

PSU has a huge game next week with Ohio State, and I think vs. Michigan all they want is to get their "W" not show OSU too much, and move on to next week.

Overconfidence is creeping in on PSU. You can see it in the media, you can see it in their games. They think they are invincible right now, and that they can blow everyone out, and they are falling into this trap game. They get crappy Michigan at home. No brainer? Not so fast.

Penn State 34
Michigan 17