Boxslayer's CFB Week 7 (16-12, +11.50, 57%)

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 16-12, +11.50units, 57%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%

Took last week off. Something like 7-3, +16 units the past 2 weeks as I have a much better feel for the teams now.

2* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 -110

Too much pressure on Clemson in this game. Their coach is on the hot seat, they have traditionally faded down the stretch, another bad loss to a bad team like Maryland, they have way too much riding on this game and their backs are against the wall. The problem is that their backs aren't against the wall with a fresh coach, fresh motivation, fresh coaching techniques, etc. Their backs are against the wall with the same situation they have always been in, the same ole coach who hasnt gotten it done in these spots in the past, etc. If they go down in this game, I see them giving up. I see the "oh no not again" syndrome creeping in on this Clemson team. They are a wounded dog, not a live dog. Big difference. Jim Grobe is a shark in the water. Bad loss last week in a look ahead game, but I think the Deacs come out ready to play tonight where Thursday night home teams do very very well historically. Wake is very well coached, it is a very reasonable spread to bet the home dog, and they are historically opportunistic on defense and that doesnt bode well for Harper who has more INTs than TDs. Every trend under the sun points to Wake in this game, and Clemson is not a special team that can overcome it. Forget the bye week, Clemson is 3-7ATS last 10 games off a bye. Take the home team with the better coach on Thursday night vs. a wounded dog.

Wake 27
Clemson 21

 

[JustWin]

Box,
Having seen the line move to Clemson -1.5 -105 with the belief that Sam Swank is out for WF, any change to the play?

 

[Boxslayer]

Box,
Having seen the line move to Clemson -1.5 -105 with the belief that Sam Swank is out for WF, any change to the play?

No, my belief that Wake will win is not based on a kicking game.

GL

 

[VoiceofReason101]

 

[theCOLLECTOR]

love the play...good to see you back :toast:

 

[GoGoBird]

2008 Overall: 16-12, +11.50units, 57%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%

Took last week off. Something like 7-3, +16 units the past 2 weeks as I have a much better feel for the teams now.

2* Wake Forest Demon Deacons +1.5 -110

Too much pressure on Clemson in this game. Their coach is on the hot seat, they have traditionally faded down the stretch, another bad loss to a bad team like Maryland, they have way too much riding on this game and their backs are against the wall. The problem is that their backs aren't against the wall with a fresh coach, fresh motivation, fresh coaching techniques, etc. Their backs are against the wall with the same situation they have always been in, the same ole coach who hasnt gotten it done in these spots in the past, etc. If they go down in this game, I see them giving up. I see the "oh no not again" syndrome creeping in on this Clemson team. They are a wounded dog, not a live dog. Big difference. Jim Grobe is a shark in the water. Bad loss last week in a look ahead game, but I think the Deacs come out ready to play tonight where Thursday night home teams do very very well historically. Wake is very well coached, it is a very reasonable spread to bet the home dog, and they are historically opportunistic on defense and that doesnt bode well for Harper who has more INTs than TDs. Every trend under the sun points to Wake in this game, and Clemson is not a special team that can overcome it. Forget the bye week, Clemson is 3-7ATS last 10 games off a bye. Take the home team with the better coach on Thursday night vs. a wounded dog.

Wake 27
Clemson 21

We are in agreement.
:toast:

 

[pleasewin]

Box, lets get that photoshop thread going again. that was fcking awesome.

 

[Boxslayer]

3* Texas Longhorns +7 -110

Public percentages, public announcers, public broadcasters, websites, grandmothers, Viagra commercials and Barack Obama all pick the Sooners to beat the Longhorns in the Red River Shootout. Sooners are the #1 team in the country, with a nice big bullseye on their backs. Texas comes in feeling a little disrespected for the work they have done this year which has been outstanding. I thought they passed a big test in my eyes last week, not falling for the trap and looking ahead last week and taking care of the Buffs.

Texas is #1 in the country at rushing the passer and that is how you take a good QB out of his comfort zone. Look for future NFL 1st rounder Brian Orakpo to be double teamed, create havok, cause holding pentalties, etc. Between the best rush defense the Sooners will face this year, the Longhorn pass rush, holding penalties and double teams on Orakpo, etc I believe the Sooners will have to work out of many 3rd and longs in this game.

While Bradford gets a lot of the attention, Colt McCoy quietly has just as good of numbers and a better completion percentage. He also has the ability to scramble and make plays with his feet, which I think will become a big factor in this game as I think points will be at a premium, and the QB who can improvise and make things happen will have the upper hand. I also think the Longhorns will have a better chance to run the football in this game and achieve balance offensively.

Longhorns are far and away better at special teams, and in a game where, again I think points will be at a premium, give me the team that can create field position flips w/ special teams and put their struggling offense in a better position to put points on the board.

I will happily grab the 7 points and be backed by a junior QB who has a 16/3 TD/INT ratio and can make plays with his feet, while his defense leads the country in sacks and has yet to give up more than 14 points this year.

Texas 23
Oklahoma 21

 

[Cappin'Guru]

BOL to you this weekend Box. I'm sure you were sweating bullets when you heard the kicker was out for Wake Forest.

Are you not nervous about the fact that Bradford has put up better numbers than McCoy and has more around him? Its hard to judge this game seeing as neither has really played any true competition yet but all I have heard was how good good OK is by the public and everything else.

I believe I would also take the seven. BOL to you!

 

[Boxslayer]

BOL to you this weekend Box. I'm sure you were sweating bullets when you heard the kicker was out for Wake Forest.

Are you not nervous about the fact that Bradford has put up better numbers than McCoy and has more around him? Its hard to judge this game seeing as neither has really played any true competition yet but all I have heard was how good good OK is by the public and everything else.

I believe I would also take the seven. BOL to you!

Wasnt nervous about the kicker at all. They won the game and didnt need a kicker.

Not nervous about any numbers or stats. The numbers are even anyway. They both have similar TD/INT ratios, both have similar passing yards, etc.

GL

 

[kungfu4life]

Respect your handicapping but this is a hyped-up game with very little background info. since neither of these two teams have played any decent teams thus far. No contenders to really be able to make a good assessment as to the TRUE quality of these two teams. They've both beat-up on the practice squads and only give us speculative information to judge them on. There's a surprise sucker punch coming from a segment of one of these teams that nobody can predict is coming and/or from where. Thus, I predict a blow-out just like in that BAMA/Georgia game.

 

[steaktartar]

nice work BS

 

[prodigy]

nice work BS

second that. well done slayer. wake just a damn efficient team who does the little things it takes to win.

 

[Boxslayer]

Respect your handicapping but this is a hyped-up game with very little background info. since neither of these two teams have played any decent teams thus far. No contenders to really be able to make a good assessment as to the TRUE quality of these two teams. They've both beat-up on the practice squads and only give us speculative information to judge them on. There's a surprise sucker punch coming from a segment of one of these teams that nobody can predict is coming and/or from where. Thus, I predict a blow-out just like in that BAMA/Georgia game.

It's all relative, starting with units wagered. While I agree there are still a few unknowns about these teams, I feel strong enough to place an average sized wager (1-5* scale, 3* for me) because I feel I know enough about the teams, the matchups, Football 101, and history repeating itself.

Everyone knows the talent on both sides of the ball, everyone knows who the draft picks will be, who the college-for-lifers are, what both of these QBs can do, what both of these coaches can do, how this game plays out historically, how both teams have some inexperience in the secondary. Each team has played 5 games, and whether the competition was great, average or terrible, things begin to surface after 5 games. You can tell by watching FL that even though they haven't played a team with a winning record yet, that their offense was sputtering. You can tell the O-line is their weakness. Etc.

I will share one of my biggest secrets to handicapping - and it isnt much of a secret as it is common sense - but people get caught up in it time and time again.

Stop picking teams based on a logo and names.

Football has been played for 100 years or so, and nothing much about the game has changed. Sure, we are in the modern era of football now, so you can ignore the previous 85 years and just look back at the past 15.

The past 15 years, history repeats itself. You can find similarities in many teams across the history of football.

Stop betting on TEXAS or OKLAHOMA or WAKE FOREST or CLEMSON. Start betting on Team "A", Team "B" or Team "C" by categorizing them into team types.

Such as:

"Team A is off a bye where they are undefeated off a bye week, they are a physical football team in the underdog role that is rested playing an overconfident speed team that hasnt had a bye week in 3 weeks. Team A has the better coach, and and an experienced QB. Team B is returning from a west coast trip."

Looks pretty convincing. But you may see it as Team A = Alabama, and Team B is Georgia, and you say no way Bama beats Georgia, Bama has sucked the past few years and Georgia is #1 and Matthew Stafford is a 1st rounder.

Once you've seen stuff play out enough, you can do this for every team, every situation as long as you know the teams and you dont pretend to know the teams.

I think I have a pretty good feel on Team A and Team B who just so happens to be OK and TEX. Wager placed.

GL

 

[Boxslayer]

nice work BS

ty:drink:

 

[Boxslayer]

second that. well done slayer. wake just a damn efficient team who does the little things it takes to win.

thx.....yeah they are well-coached. i want to doubt them, too, but they just have "it" and they find ways to win. dont like betting against teams that find ways to win and bet on ultra-talented teams that find ways to lose.

 

[8ate]

nice thoughts;

appreciate your thinking and pix
you are a winner

gl

 

[ar182]

second that. well done slayer. wake just a damn efficient team who does the little things it takes to win.

speaks volumes about the coaching..wonder what grobe would do with better talent...

good luck box...

 

[dave11486]

Boxslayer, glad to see you back. Missed your selections last week.

Hell of a call last night with the deacons.

 

[everythingthatsgreen]

SC/UK who you got?