Boxslayer's CFB Week #3 Plays

Boxslayer · Sep 14, 2009

2009 Overall: 6-5, +2.55 units
2008 Overall: 79-57, +30.30 units, 58%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 208-136, +123.79 units, 61%
Last Week: 4-1, +5.80 units

Quick updates:

1. For record purposes, I never count ML plays for against my record bc it is misleading to say I am 5-0 when I pick -255 favorites, and it is misleading to say I am 0-5 when picking +255 underdogs. That being said, the money risked is always counted for or against UNITS won and lost, because after all this is all about how much money you make, not what kind of rate you win your picks.

2. Quick shout to barman for taking out the trash.

3. If you think I am cocky...that's fine. I admit I am cocky, and I feel you have to be cocky to be a good capper. I don't have any doubt in my mind that I am on the right side when I put my plays in. I realize that a lot of people follow or take my posts into consideration and I don't like to put up airballs. I research my plays heavily and I play them with conviction. If you have any doubt when you make your picks, you are done. There are many other great cappers out there, and if anyone wants to respectfully discuss plays, I am all for it when I have the time. But don't expect me to sit here and have someone come in here and tell me I need to bet better games, or have some relatively unknown poster come in here and try to rip my plays to shreds and scrutinize heavily with cockiness, and me not fire back with confidence and cockiness that I am on the right side. If you can't handle what you may hear in response, then don't say anything.

That being said, I don't argue to show how right I am, I argue to figure out why I may be wrong.

I want to see where the holes in my theories and capping are, and if I don't find any, then I feel even more confident and sometimes up my units.

Boxslayer · Sep 14, 2009

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ontGrowAutofit/> </w:Compatibility> <w:BrowserLevel>MicrosoftInternetExplorer4</w:BrowserLevel> </w:WordDocument> </xml><![endif]--><style>  </style> 3* Miami Hurricanes -5 -110

I'm usually not a big fan of laying points on a team after a high profile win. In this case, UM's big high profile win over FSU on National TV has everyone excited about <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>, and it is easy for people to like them in this game. The books know this and usually inflate the point spread. This is true especially after Ga Tech blew their lead and nearly lost to Clemson. People may be down on them.

So I like to see how focused each team is after games like the ones they played this past week. You will find that a team in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>'s spot is typically so excited still about their win last week, that they forget to look forward and run into a focused brick wall. However, Georgia Tech is in the same boat as <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>.

One of my favorite handicapping angles is to fade team's off emotional home victories that now travel on the road. It is a difficult thing to overcome and has been a cornerstone to what I do for a long time. Ga Tech is off an emotional, tight, nail biting, intense home victory. Now they have a short week at their practice field because they board a plane and fly to <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>. Big advantage for the Canes.

Meanwhile. I like the fact that the win over FSU is somewhat out of <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>'s system. They didn't have some short turnaround and have to face a motivated team while they were busy celebrating. They haven't played since last Monday, so they've had 10 days to get ready. The glamour of the win has worn off, and <st1:city w:st="on">Miami</st1:city> was reminded by <st1

lace w:st="on"><st1

lacename w:st="on">Jacksonville</st1

lacename> <st1

lacetype w:st="on">State</st1

lacetype></st1

lace> that maybe FSU wasnt that good....

In order for <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> to compete for the ACC Crown, they need to get it through Georgia Tech. They will NOT take this team lightly because Georgia Tech has beaten <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> 4 straight times. Usually 4 straight victories will set alarm bells off that Team A has Team B's number. But in this game's case, Paul Johnson has only been at Ga Tech for 1 of those 4 times, and he obviously runs the triple option. <st1:city w:st="on">Miami</st1:city> lost last year, partially do to it being a young <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> team playing a road game vs. a well executed Triple Option.

This past offseason, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> changed both their offensive and defensive coordinators. In fact, <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>'s offensive coordinator (Whipple) actually beat Paul Johnson in the D2 National Title Game when both were head coaches some odd years ago. I like knowing that there is some history between Whipple and Johnson and Whipple has had the better of him.

Game is also in <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>, and Thursday night home teams do very well historically.

All of these intangibles to me point to a <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">MIami</st1

lace></st1:city> victory and cover.

Xs and Os wise this game all comes down to whether <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> can stop the Triple Option and the answer is yes. You didn't hear Marcus Forston and Sean Spence's name called vs. FSU in a pass happy game. But in a game with plenty of running, watch for the sophomore tandem of Big Marcus Forston in the middle to stuff the FB Dive, and the speedy stud LB Sean Spence to flow to the football on the option. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city>'s Randy Shannon is a bad head coach, but he knows defense and he runs a pro style defense that will shut down this gimmick offense now that he has his recruited personnel on defense in their second year.

<st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> had key injuries to both defensive ends and their safety last game. They get most of their injured players back for this game.

Graig Cooper will get plenty of carries and Jacory Harris' arm will keep this offense balanced. If they get ahead, Georgia Techs offense is not built to play come from behind. <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> could run away with this and Georgia Techs one dimensional offense will be unable to do anything late.

I don't think <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> is quite back yet, but don't tell their players that. Their confidence is sky high right now going into this game and with their home opener in a critical ACC game, expect <st1:city w:st="on"><st1

lace w:st="on">Miami</st1

lace></st1:city> to roll Georgia Tech.

Miami 30
Georgia Tech 19

CoachCB · Sep 14, 2009

BOX, good luck this week. It's been my worst start in the 5 or 6 years I've been doing this!

Boxslayer · Sep 14, 2009

keep grinding away, it's only 2 weeks. gl

jbragg10 · Sep 15, 2009

I am liking Miami as well. Good luck this week Box!

bookiebanger · Sep 15, 2009

Personally, as shown last season, GT's option offense is a hit or miss as to whether it clicks and shows up or not. LSU exposed this greatly in the bowl game last year.

Willye · Sep 15, 2009

Hey box what week do the numbers come out, it was a great tool in helping me last year... Agree with the play on the canes this team is young and hungry and whipple is using the talent they have unlike nix last year... The only concern for me in this game is shannon at head coach... Goodluck box appreciate your work thanks

jblonghorn · Sep 15, 2009

Boxslayer said:
2009 Overall: 6-5, +2.55 units
2008 Overall: 79-57, +30.30 units, 58%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%
3-Year Total: 208-136, +123.79 units, 61%
Last Week: 4-1, +5.80 units

Quick updates:

1. For record purposes, I never count ML plays for against my record bc it is misleading to say I am 5-0 when I pick -255 favorites, and it is misleading to say I am 0-5 when picking +255 underdogs. That being said, the money risked is always counted for or against UNITS won and lost, because after all this is all about how much money you make, not what kind of rate you win your picks.

2. Quick shout to barman for taking out the trash.

3. If you think I am cocky...that's fine. I admit I am cocky, and I feel you have to be cocky to be a good capper. I don't have any doubt in my mind that I am on the right side when I put my plays in. I realize that a lot of people follow or take my posts into consideration and I don't like to put up airballs. I research my plays heavily and I play them with conviction. If you have any doubt when you make your picks, you are done. There are many other great cappers out there, and if anyone wants to respectfully discuss plays, I am all for it when I have the time. But don't expect me to sit here and have someone come in here and tell me I need to bet better games, or have some relatively unknown poster come in here and try to rip my plays to shreds and scrutinize heavily with cockiness, and me not fire back with confidence and cockiness that I am on the right side. If you can't handle what you may hear in response, then don't say anything.

That being said, I don't argue to show how right I am, I argue to figure out why I may be wrong.

I want to see where the holes in my theories and capping are, and if I don't find any, then I feel even more confident and sometimes up my units.

Well said man. Well said.

EveryGamblersDream · Sep 15, 2009

Boxslayer said:
If you think I am cocky...that's fine. I admit I am cocky, and I feel you have to be cocky to be a good capper. I don't have any doubt in my mind that I am on the right side when I put my plays in.

Believe me, you are not cocky just to be cocky. I know you are because you believe in your talent & understanding of whatever sport you choose to bet on. This is one of the real edges between a legitimate winning gambler & losing gambler. Most people will never get this & will lose in the long run.

Keep doing things your way as it has proven to you (the most important person to prove anything to) to be the right way.

As always good luck, you're one of the few here I respect & would seriously talk sports or gambling with.

AlwaysKeen · Sep 15, 2009

GL this week boxslayer...

Boxslayer · Sep 15, 2009

bookiebanger said:
Personally, as shown last season, GT's option offense is a hit or miss as to whether it clicks and shows up or not. LSU exposed this greatly in the bowl game last year.

Yep, that's what I mean when I say Randy Shannon runs a pro style defense. Last year, most of these kids were freshmen. But with a year under their belt, Miami has a lot of athletes all over the field and I think teams with great team speed on defense like Miami, LSU, etc can shut down a triple option attack. I don't think it's hit or miss as much as it is the fact that pro style defenses with team speed can shut this type of attack down.

I think Ga Tech will move the ball some, but I think Miami's defense will stiffen up late and force them into field goals.

Boxslayer · Sep 15, 2009

Willye said:
Hey box what week do the numbers come out, it was a great tool in helping me last year... Agree with the play on the canes this team is young and hungry and whipple is using the talent they have unlike nix last year... The only concern for me in this game is shannon at head coach... Goodluck box appreciate your work thanks

Shannon's a horrific head coach, and on top of that he is a horrible game day head coach/sideline manager/clock manager.

That all being said, the guys knows defense.

Numbers come out in a few weeks, need more data.

Boxslayer · Sep 15, 2009

EveryGamblersDream said:
As always good luck, you're one of the few here I respect & would seriously talk sports or gambling with.

Same here. GL

TheShambler · Sep 15, 2009

I like the play, I had a lean on the same side and will now make it officailly a play.

good Luck,
shammy

indiana · Sep 15, 2009

Box............

thanks for the early play...bol this week

indy

fonz5000 · Sep 15, 2009

CoachCB said:
BOX, good luck this week. It's been my worst start in the 5 or 6 years I've been doing this!

Same here.. I am 5-13 in NCAA... I don't know what is going on.

At least NFL has brought me back a little going 7-3, but still down for the year.

rnaude241 · Sep 15, 2009

Just got Miami at -4.5... thanks Box

Willye · Sep 15, 2009

miami's main weakness is their secondary which is thin and young but against gt shouldn't be exposed, upfront they get moncour back this week, and fortson has been hearing all about how bad he looked in the fsu game so i expect him to bring it along with the miami northwestern connection spence.... this team is hungry

Bennyshoe · Sep 15, 2009

what's your thoughts on the UF/Tenn game or will that be a play and you'll explain your thoughts?

MajorGCG · Sep 15, 2009

Tech has won 4 straight (a negative IMO) and 10 of the last 14. Miami D is putrid and gave up 500yds rushing to Tech last year. I'm taking the points. But Lord knows I haven't been right much at all this year.