Boxslayer's CFB Week 3 (6-6, -0.90 units)

[Boxslayer]

2008 Overall: 6-6, +0.10 units, 50%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%

Went 2-1 last week to get back into profit. Starting to get a good feel for the season and wins should go up from here.

3* USF Bulls +4.5 -110

Bulls looking for their 4th consecutive victory over a ranked opponent. They have shut down much better offenses than what they will face here tonight.

Kansas has beaten two absolute cupcakes in FIU and LA-Tech. Very tough test for them to go on the road on a Friday night and beat this USF team with very underrated speed and defense. USF can shut any offense down and take any offense out of their comfort zone.

Grothe is a playmaker with his arm and legs. Leavitt is a very good coach.

USF cant be known as the program that pulls the upset every now and then only to have a let down late in the year. This is USF's year to take the next step. Their QB is experienced, their D is tough and they know they can win these types of games now.

USF 23
Kansas 19

 

[Uscsilb24]

best of luck on the plays boxlsayer but i am a little confused about something...

first of all usf is -4.5 not +4.5 and second you only have them winning by 4 which wouldnt cover the -4.5 but your write up indicates you like usf??

thanks

 

[deltadog]

got a misprint... USF is -4....

good luck.

Deltadog

 

[schmeinz]

ouch with that final score you might want to re-think this game.

im sure its a typo, im on the same side so good luck to us

 

[SportsFan818]

any chance for an email list like bigbookie doing in case forum goes down or something?

 

[Wynn]

2008 Overall: 6-6, +0.10 units, 50%
2007 Overall: 60-42, +45.45 units, 59%
2006 Overall: 65-36, +45.49 units, 64%

Went 2-1 last week to get back into profit. Starting to get a good feel for the season and wins should go up from here.

3* USF Bulls +4.5 -110

Bulls looking for their 4th consecutive victory over a ranked opponent. They have shut down much better offenses than what they will face here tonight.

Kansas has beaten two absolute cupcakes in FIU and LA-Tech. Very tough test for them to go on the road on a Friday night and beat this USF team with very underrated speed and defense. USF can shut any offense down and take any offense out of their comfort zone.

Grothe is a playmaker with his arm and legs. Leavitt is a very good coach.

USF cant be known as the program that pulls the upset every now and then only to have a let down late in the year. This is USF's year to take the next step. Their QB is experienced, their D is tough and they know they can win these types of games now.

USF 23
Kansas 19

Box, I'd go 3X on USF +4.5, but the line is USF -4.5.

 

[VoiceofReason101]

23-19 would be troublesome for you but not for me haha.

 

[Boxslayer]

usf -4.5 is the play. i had about 50 typos on that post from my record in the thread title to the play to the score posted.

looking at my excel sheet usf -4.5 24-9 final

just read the writeup...no typoing that

sorry for the confusion

 

[Boxslayer]

Havent been able to get on the site. Will post a few plays without writeups for the early games.

3* Missouri Tigers -26 -110

 

[Boxslayer]

1* Central Michigan -3 -110

 

[Boxslayer]

No play on UCLA/BYU as I feel the Bruins are very well-coached and I think their road woes will be a thing of the past. However, never bet on a 1st year QB on his first road start.

 

[SportsFan818]

keep em comin.....would like a gatech/vatech insight plz

 

[Boxslayer]

2* Virginia Tech Hokies -6.5 -110

 

[barman]

SLAYER, I'm right there with ya on C Michigan though in real $$ I packaged them on moneyline (-160) with the Toronto BJs Game 1

BOL to us all for a good Saturday

 

[Boxslayer]

2* South Carolina Gamecocks 1st Half +4 -110
1* South Carolina Gamecocks +7 -110

One of the bigger games of the day pits the Cocks and Ole Spurrier vs. the top ranked, Georgia Bulldogs.

This has been a very interesting series to say the least, with these two teams always seeming to have defensive slugfests.

I really don't see that trend changing here as the last 11 meetings have stayed under the total - and in most cases well under.

It is my personal opinion that Georgia is an overrated team and with Spurrier struggling recently, I think nothing would make him feel better and get the SC Critics off his back quicker than a straight up win vs. Georgia.

Spurrier has made no secret that Georgia is and has always been one of his least favorite teams. I wouldnt be surprised after looking at the pre-season polls if he didnt circle this date on his calendar and put 10 stars around that circle.

They get the top ranked Bulldogs at home, with points, in a series that has been historically low scoring and covering a 7 point spread as a road favorite is pushing it to me.

Spurrier has been winning games these days with defense and he has a very good one in Columbia with what should be a crazy home crowd behind it. Offensively has surprisingly been a struggle, and I personally think we see the classic Spurrier here pulling out gadget plays, faking punts, taking chances to get points on the board and give his team a chance to win. The Cocks have nothing to lose here, no one is expecting them to win, and I think that is very powerful and a dangerous spot for the Bulldogs. Spurrier would rather be caught dead than show the world that his OFFENSE is what is the weak spot on his team and what a great showcase for recruiting and a chance to show the world that they aren't done just yet.

I am willing to give the Cocks a few mulligans in the early going. Week 1 they had a first-time QB starting, and they pitched a shutout defensively. Week 2 I think they got caught in a look ahead spot, on a road game vs. a very fired up underdog with nothing to lose.

Now though, there are no excuses. They have their experienced QBs, Spurrier will stick with the hot hand and rotate if he has to, they are at home, they are the underdog, there is no looking ahead. This is the game for SC. They have played Georgia very tough every year and it is one of those series that you just can't explain or put your finger on, but the Cocks always play the Dawgs tough.

This is Georgia's first test to show that they can handle the bullseye on their back. It is a role that they historically under Mark Richt have not faired well. Georgia is a team that thrives as an underdog, and this is a very difficult test for them because they are SUPPOSED to win this game, they are SUPPOSED to go into a very tough environment vs. a team that has given them fits and destroy them.

Stafford is a good looking NFL prospect, but he has never had many lights out games, where he just comes out, throws for 350 yards, 3 TDs, etc and I think they will need that kind of effort from him today because the Cocks will stop Moreno in the 1st half to make Stafford beat them. I think that will force UGA to throw early and make them pass to set up the run. If Moreno goes off, I think it will be in the 2nd half, and he will grind it out. But I think UGA comes out throwing to set up the run, and I think that plays into the hands of USC and their #1 ranked pass defense.

USC has an extra 2 days to prepare for this game, but I think Spurrier has wanted this one for a long time.

I would buy the revenge angle for UGA if this was at Georgia. But going away and playing a live dog it will be a hard fought game and revenge is the last thing these guys can worry about.

I think SC is a little more battle-tested in the early part of this season.

UGA 20
USC 16

 

[Boxslayer]

6* Ohio State Buckeyes +12 -110

I am going to monitor the betting line and see if I can get 13 by game time. So this is officially a play, but I have not put it in yet.

Probably one of my stronger plays of the season in the national showdown between Ohio State and USC.

One of the foundations of capping is the flat-out disrespect given to Ohio State right now. Coming into this season I had this game circled on my calendar as OSU probably getting 7 points because of their national title debacles, but getting 13 points is just insane.

Does everyone really think that OSU will continue to get blown out every game they play vs. a top out of conference team from now until eternity?

Coming into this season I HOPED that OSU would look ahead vs. Ohio to make this spread even bigger. Then the ridiculously highly publicized loss of Beanie Wells, every 2 seconds we get an injury update on this guy like as if he was the deciding factor of a win or loss. Everything just sets up beautifully here, IMO.

1. Extremely disrespected team. Check
2. Look ahead game the week before and an uncharacteristically poor performance by said team. Check.
3. Ridiculous and flat-out embarrassing coverage of underdog team injury. Check.

And the kicker.....

4. Favored team QB who has yet to prove ANYTHING on the football field.

Heck...

5. Favored team QB who has yet to prove anything on the football field and is hobbled by an injury on top of it.

Can someone explain to me what accomplishments has Mark Sanchez done in his collegiate career that warrant him being a double digit favorite against an outstanding and disrespected Ohio State defense?

Any national title game appearances? Any bowl victories? Anything?

Everyone just seems to assume this guy is Tom Brady and he is going to come out and is a lock to light it up. Says who? Says what history? Maybe Mark Sanchez goes down as an NFL Hall of Famer one day. Or maybe he ends up being a complete nobody. The guy who threw 3 picks vs OSU, followed that up with 4 picks next week followed that up by 3 picks the week after and never sniffed a football field again. We don't know anything about Mark Sanchez.

This is still a guy who not only has minimal game experience, but he has also missed a good portion of the fall practices. This guy can throw some wobbly ducks, and he has been intercepted plenty in his early going as a starter last year, and I expect a few key INTs tonight.

USC QB is a big question mark for me, and if I am laying 13 points I want Chase Daniel, I want Tim Tebow, I want Peyton Manning, Tom Brady - I want someone with a history of lighting it up. Not one good game vs. a UVA team that is a shell of their last year team, that won 100 games by 3 points or less and could have easily had a losing record.

USC has played 1 game this season, and sure they had a bye week. But I would rather be playing football games at this early stage in the season and getting my team battle-tested, rather than taking a bye week on week 2.

Ohio State's look ahead victory vs. Ohio was not impressive. Certainly not. But how many times in history, year after year, do we see teams look horrendous in a look ahead spot only to come out and pull the "upset" the following week? It happens every year, like clockwork.

So, if they plan to protect Mark Sanchez, and play it conservative, that plays right into OSU and Big Ten Football OSU would love more than anything else for USC to line it up with their running backs and try to play smashmouth. That is where Ohio State is at their best. Pro-style smash mouth football. That is what the big 10 is all about.

I will say this: I believe USC is a team on a mission this year. I think highly of this team, I think they are a top team pending QB experience, I think OSU is a top 7 team, I think USC should be favored. But not by this much. I think USC should be a 3 to 4 point favorite.

This is a great spot for the Buckeyes to have the chance at the outright win. In the end, I do believe the home team will prevail.

USC 24
Ohio State 20

 

[GoGoBird]

6* Ohio State Buckeyes +12 -110

I am going to monitor the betting line and see if I can get 13 by game time. So this is officially a play, but I have not put it in yet.

Probably one of my stronger plays of the season in the national showdown between Ohio State and USC.

One of the foundations of capping is the flat-out disrespect given to Ohio State right now. Coming into this season I had this game circled on my calendar as OSU probably getting 7 points because of their national title debacles, but getting 13 points is just insane.

Does everyone really think that OSU will continue to get blown out every game they play vs. a top out of conference team from now until eternity?

Coming into this season I HOPED that OSU would look ahead vs. Ohio to make this spread even bigger. Then the ridiculously highly publicized loss of Beanie Wells, every 2 seconds we get an injury update on this guy like as if he was the deciding factor of a win or loss. Everything just sets up beautifully here, IMO.

1. Extremely disrespected team. Check
2. Look ahead game the week before and an uncharacteristically poor performance by said team. Check.
3. Ridiculous and flat-out embarrassing coverage of underdog team injury. Check.

And the kicker.....

4. Favored team QB who has yet to prove ANYTHING on the football field.

Heck...

5. Favored team QB who has yet to prove anything on the football field and is hobbled by an injury on top of it.

Can someone explain to me what accomplishments has Mark Sanchez done in his collegiate career that warrant him being a double digit favorite against an outstanding and disrespected Ohio State defense?

Any national title game appearances? Any bowl victories? Anything?

Everyone just seems to assume this guy is Tom Brady and he is going to come out and is a lock to light it up. Says who? Says what history? Maybe Mark Sanchez goes down as an NFL Hall of Famer one day. Or maybe he ends up being a complete nobody. The guy who threw 3 picks vs OSU, followed that up with 4 picks next week followed that up by 3 picks the week after and never sniffed a football field again. We don't know anything about Mark Sanchez.

This is still a guy who not only has minimal game experience, but he has also missed a good portion of the fall practices. This guy can throw some wobbly ducks, and he has been intercepted plenty in his early going as a starter last year, and I expect a few key INTs tonight.

USC QB is a big question mark for me, and if I am laying 13 points I want Chase Daniel, I want Tim Tebow, I want Peyton Manning, Tom Brady - I want someone with a history of lighting it up. Not one good game vs. a UVA team that is a shell of their last year team, that won 100 games by 3 points or less and could have easily had a losing record.

USC has played 1 game this season, and sure they had a bye week. But I would rather be playing football games at this early stage in the season and getting my team battle-tested, rather than taking a bye week on week 2.

Ohio State's look ahead victory vs. Ohio was not impressive. Certainly not. But how many times in history, year after year, do we see teams look horrendous in a look ahead spot only to come out and pull the "upset" the following week? It happens every year, like clockwork.

So, if they plan to protect Mark Sanchez, and play it conservative, that plays right into OSU and Big Ten Football OSU would love more than anything else for USC to line it up with their running backs and try to play smashmouth. That is where Ohio State is at their best. Pro-style smash mouth football. That is what the big 10 is all about.

I will say this: I believe USC is a team on a mission this year. I think highly of this team, I think they are a top team pending QB experience, I think OSU is a top 7 team, I think USC should be favored. But not by this much. I think USC should be a 3 to 4 point favorite.

This is a great spot for the Buckeyes to have the chance at the outright win. In the end, I do believe the home team will prevail.

USC 24
Ohio State 20

Well you are a big game hunter and normally get the high profile matchups correct. Definately would lean this way as well. Good luck.
:toast:

 

[thewiscokid]

gl box! been looking around for OSU lines. bodog has them currently at 12.5, you can buy up to 13 for -120. i think by gametime it will be 13 maybe even 13.5.