1.5* Ohio Bobcats PK 1st Quarter -110
Nothing crazy here, just a very common sense play for Tuesday Night.
Buffalo suspended star QB Zach Maynard for the 1st quarter tonight. Maynard has been the starter all year long and despite being off to one of the best young starts in school history for a new QB, the Bulls still can't find a way to win any games.
Buffalo will start a redshirt freshman tonight, Jerry Davis. Davis has thrown about 6 passes on the year, hitting at a 50% clip.
Bulls are just 2-3 straight up at home this year, and 2-7 ATS last 9 at home. Not much of a homefield advantage for the Bulls under Turner Gill.
Starting tailback Ike Nduka is also out for this game. So the high powered Buffalo offense is missing their QB for the first quarter and tailback for the game. Buffalo has been able to rotate other backs into the game and they have been able to gash defenses on the ground. But I'll bet with Maynard out, Ohio will force newcomer Jerry Davis to throw the ball and defending the Bulls rushing attack will be a bit easier. Bulls will likely start a freshman, Gill, who looked good last week, but doesn't have Zach Maynard to keep defenses honest this week. He'll be going up against Frank Solich's 4-3 front.
Ohio is #7 in turnover margin and that should be trouble for a new QB. Ohio forces turnovers, and they are GREAT on special teams, so they have all of the intagibles going for them in this game.
Ohio sports the #37 total defense in the country. They haven't given up any points in the 1st quarter in the last 2 games. They have given up just 7 total points in the 1st quarter in 4 games combined. The most points they have given up all year was 37 to Bowling Green. Only 3 of those 37 came in the 1st quarter. Again, tough sledding for Jerry Davis early.
Bulls have been outscored 34-68 in the 1st quarter at full strength. The largest discrepnacy of any quarter that they play. They outscore opponents 103-53 in the 2nd quarter by comparison.
Ohio outscores their opponents in the 1st quarter 43-34.
Ohio has scored in the 1st quarter and jumped on top of their opponents first in 3 straight road games.
Ohio starts redshirt senior QB Theo Scott. Scott was recruited originally by Cal and spent time on their practice squad before transferring out bouncing around and ending up at Ohio.
Buffalo played on Tuesday night last week, so I don't expect them to come out with that same intensity that they did last week in their first nationally televised game. This is Ohio's first nationally televised game during the mid week and they should come out pretty pumped up.
Buffalo has beaten Ohio 2 straight seasons during the Drew Willy years, so expect a little payback and revenge from Ohio in this game on Buffalo.
Ohio is 6-3 on the year and has found ways to win games. Buffalo just 3-6 straight up on the year and has found ways to lose games.
Take the better team, the better first quarter team, coming out fired up on national TV, vs. a bad team, handicapped and starting a freshman QB on national TV.
Nothing crazy here, just a very common sense play for Tuesday Night.
Buffalo suspended star QB Zach Maynard for the 1st quarter tonight. Maynard has been the starter all year long and despite being off to one of the best young starts in school history for a new QB, the Bulls still can't find a way to win any games.
Buffalo will start a redshirt freshman tonight, Jerry Davis. Davis has thrown about 6 passes on the year, hitting at a 50% clip.
Bulls are just 2-3 straight up at home this year, and 2-7 ATS last 9 at home. Not much of a homefield advantage for the Bulls under Turner Gill.
Starting tailback Ike Nduka is also out for this game. So the high powered Buffalo offense is missing their QB for the first quarter and tailback for the game. Buffalo has been able to rotate other backs into the game and they have been able to gash defenses on the ground. But I'll bet with Maynard out, Ohio will force newcomer Jerry Davis to throw the ball and defending the Bulls rushing attack will be a bit easier. Bulls will likely start a freshman, Gill, who looked good last week, but doesn't have Zach Maynard to keep defenses honest this week. He'll be going up against Frank Solich's 4-3 front.
Ohio is #7 in turnover margin and that should be trouble for a new QB. Ohio forces turnovers, and they are GREAT on special teams, so they have all of the intagibles going for them in this game.
Ohio sports the #37 total defense in the country. They haven't given up any points in the 1st quarter in the last 2 games. They have given up just 7 total points in the 1st quarter in 4 games combined. The most points they have given up all year was 37 to Bowling Green. Only 3 of those 37 came in the 1st quarter. Again, tough sledding for Jerry Davis early.
Bulls have been outscored 34-68 in the 1st quarter at full strength. The largest discrepnacy of any quarter that they play. They outscore opponents 103-53 in the 2nd quarter by comparison.
Ohio outscores their opponents in the 1st quarter 43-34.
Ohio has scored in the 1st quarter and jumped on top of their opponents first in 3 straight road games.
Ohio starts redshirt senior QB Theo Scott. Scott was recruited originally by Cal and spent time on their practice squad before transferring out bouncing around and ending up at Ohio.
Buffalo played on Tuesday night last week, so I don't expect them to come out with that same intensity that they did last week in their first nationally televised game. This is Ohio's first nationally televised game during the mid week and they should come out pretty pumped up.
Buffalo has beaten Ohio 2 straight seasons during the Drew Willy years, so expect a little payback and revenge from Ohio in this game on Buffalo.
Ohio is 6-3 on the year and has found ways to win games. Buffalo just 3-6 straight up on the year and has found ways to lose games.
Take the better team, the better first quarter team, coming out fired up on national TV, vs. a bad team, handicapped and starting a freshman QB on national TV.
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Box,
Dont post here much but love reading your post everyweek. Do you think Ohio would be a good play for the game as well. Local doesnt take quarters or half bets. Was thinking of taking Ohio before I knew about the qb being suspended for the first quarter. Just wanted to know what you think. Thanks again for your input.
Dont post here much but love reading your post everyweek. Do you think Ohio would be a good play for the game as well. Local doesnt take quarters or half bets. Was thinking of taking Ohio before I knew about the qb being suspended for the first quarter. Just wanted to know what you think. Thanks again for your input.
I wouldn't recommend laying -130 juice or higher to get the PK. -120 is about as far as I would go to get the PK.
The PK is kind of a big deal when betting quarters because quarters can easily end tied. But it's not worth laying -150 and -160 like some have mentioned.
I never usually bet quarters, because part of the problem is if Buffalo wins the toss and receives, and they go down the field and score a TD, the play is essentially shot.
That being said, I believe the 1st quarter to have value, so I do think the first half has some value. The alarming thing to me if betting the half is that Buffalo has outscored opponents 103-53 in the 2nd quarter, which seems to be by far their best quarter of football. They seem to take a quarter to settle into a football game and that coupled with them getting Zach back in the 2nd quarter should inject their offense.
In terms of taking Ohio for the full game, Buffalo needs 3 wins to become bowl eligible and they have just 3 games remaining on their schedule. This is their final home game and senior night.
That being said, Buffalo is 3-6 on the year and has found ways to lose games. It's tough to bet on a team that has only found a way to win 3 times this season.
You can see why I feel the best play of this game is Ohio 1st quarter. In order to win a 1st Q bet at a PK, I think Ohio has to be winning after the 1st quarter. That puts them going into the 2nd quarter with a lead. So I technically think 1st half has value.
If your book doesn't have that option, I would just sit this one out. That's what I would personally do. I know some of you guys are action junkies and want some Tuesday night entertainment, so to each his own: If your book doesn't have quarters, and you want action I would do 1* 1st half on Ohio. If your book doesn't have that and you want action I would do 0.5* Ohio + the points.
GL whatever you decide.
The PK is kind of a big deal when betting quarters because quarters can easily end tied. But it's not worth laying -150 and -160 like some have mentioned.
I never usually bet quarters, because part of the problem is if Buffalo wins the toss and receives, and they go down the field and score a TD, the play is essentially shot.
That being said, I believe the 1st quarter to have value, so I do think the first half has some value. The alarming thing to me if betting the half is that Buffalo has outscored opponents 103-53 in the 2nd quarter, which seems to be by far their best quarter of football. They seem to take a quarter to settle into a football game and that coupled with them getting Zach back in the 2nd quarter should inject their offense.
In terms of taking Ohio for the full game, Buffalo needs 3 wins to become bowl eligible and they have just 3 games remaining on their schedule. This is their final home game and senior night.
That being said, Buffalo is 3-6 on the year and has found ways to lose games. It's tough to bet on a team that has only found a way to win 3 times this season.
You can see why I feel the best play of this game is Ohio 1st quarter. In order to win a 1st Q bet at a PK, I think Ohio has to be winning after the 1st quarter. That puts them going into the 2nd quarter with a lead. So I technically think 1st half has value.
If your book doesn't have that option, I would just sit this one out. That's what I would personally do. I know some of you guys are action junkies and want some Tuesday night entertainment, so to each his own: If your book doesn't have quarters, and you want action I would do 1* 1st half on Ohio. If your book doesn't have that and you want action I would do 0.5* Ohio + the points.
GL whatever you decide.
Box long time lurker I must admit your post and Braggs are the only ones I truly follow on this board, hope your success continues, I want to ask you, at my book I can get Ohio +0.5 but high juice -150, I really want to slam this considering the info you gave us and also if it ends in a tie I will also win,what is your opinion on this, should I take the plus and lay juice or just take it like u and pay lesser? Thanks Box.
