boxing futures

sphincter · Jul 31, 2003

cauthen-quiles over 10(-300 ouch).......neither guy can punch....cauthen is a whippet.....quiles has hung in with some very big punchers.....quiles getting older(33)....but cauthen isn`t interested in hurting anybody...TWO southpaws so that may cut down on the possibility of headbutts....

QUILES IS 33-5 W/8 K.O.`S.....he has gone the distance with diobelys hurtado.....vince phillips....goyo vargas and ahmad santos.....all much better punchers than cauthen....cauthen will not stop quiles short of a freak cut....quiles last k.o. was in "98" vs a guy that was 0-8-1......he has one kayo over a .500 or better fighter(a nobody with a 7-4 record back in 1990)....

CAUTHEN IS 23-1 W/7 K.O.`S.......has one k.o. over a guy with an above .500 record.....eugene johnson was 4-2 when cauthen stopped him......he finished his career at 5-13-1......

cauthen can`t punch.....he`s a track star...had a good amateur career......but still fights like an amateur....to score points...sans a cut,he just won`t stop quiles...

quiles will chase cauthen....and not catch him....and if he does,i doubt he can stop him.....he just doesn`t punch hard...period...

-300 is a bit much for me....very scary odds....but the bookies know this one will probably go the full 10....surprised they posted it....i wasn`t going to post this until close to fight time.....i worry about shenanighans....what the hell.....

head butts happen.....out of my control....

2)tito ortiz-180 over randy couture...

a little off the beaten track for me....a ufc bout.....

simply put,ortiz has become a beast.....he is destroying everyone they put in front of him.....

couture was a fantastic fighter...guts and toughness....and he recently upset tough chuck liddell by k.o.....but,imo,liddell isn`t ortiz....

i don`t see him doing it twice.....couture is 40 oyrs old...and his stamina in bouts preceding the liddell bout was lacking...i believe the liddell bout and this bout is a step down in weight for couture.....and admittedly,couture will be fighting a smaller guy than he`s used to fighting

as much as i respect couture,i just think he may be biting off more than he can chew...

he will have to try and catch ortiz with a big shot....the longer it goes,the tougher it will be for couture....and i was sort of shocked to realize that oriz may actually a little bigger than couture.....i thought originally that couture was the bigger guy...

i`m expecting and hoping ortiz will take couture to the mat and ground and pound him much like he did with an old ken shamrock......father time is a bastard....couture will have to get lucky,imo.....

3)A "MAYBE" HEDGE BET.....i was kind of looking at a hedge bet with echols -180 or whatever the lowest odds you can find are with over 7 in this fight.....

the odds are moving our way.....everybody hitting the under....and some mundine sentiment.....

i think mundine has an outside shot.....at least to extend the bout.....echols has been off for over a year......has been shot in the interim(yes,a gunshot wound,although minor...lol)....is travelling to australia(mundine`s home).....mundine is a solid athlete and can box and punch a bit.....he has excellent traners in jeff fenech and hussein.....i know they understand that mundine doesn`t want to stand and trade with echols....echols hits like a mule and takes an excellent shot also.....

but .ohhh that layoff....layoffs are murder......i expect echols to struggle some...at least early.....

i actually am a little worried about echols here....i think in the usa,we may be underestimating mundine because he was stopped by ottke....that,from all accounts was an exhaustion stoppage.....mundine was doing well in the bout....

if he has a stamina problem,maybe we get lucky and echols can walk him down in the later rounds.....hit it both ways...

this one is still in the "maybe" category......

4)jesus chavez -120 over sirimongkol singmanasak....the thai(don`t make me spell that name again)is 43-1........taller....from what i hear is a good fighter.....

but this one is in texas(chavez` home)....chavez is a very tough dude....his one legit loss was to floyd mayweather...the other was very early in his career....

this may be chavez` last shot at a world title....in his hometown.....he`s only 30....not an old guy....

the thai has an excellent record but it`s just not always the same fighting basically all your fights in thailand ,japan or korea......

i know there are some solid little fighters in asia,but,ring magazine doesn`t have him rated in the top 12 jr lightweights in the world.....only one asian fighter made the top 12....and one mongolian(lakva sim)...singmanasak wasn`t there....i don`t believe that singmanasak is 43-1 at this point in his career fighting in america and mexico.....

i just have to believe chavez` people offered an arm and a leg to get this fight in their own backyard.....for the sole reason that this guy offers the path of least resisitance to a world title....

-120......has a sucker feel to it.....so,i`ll be a sucker....i like guys like chavez that are excellent,hard nosed fighters....i hope he gets his title....

if he doesn`t get it here,at home,vs the lesser of the champions that are out there,then he`s not gonna get it...

-120......i`m not gonna go broke if it doesn`t happen....

circumstances dictate that i take the shot.....

play at your own risk!!!!!!!.....g.l.

sphincter · Aug 1, 2003

taking a hard look at lil` stevie johnston +170 vs juan lazcano(the hispanic causing panic)....lazcano is good....he`s bigger.....but i think if johnston has something left,he could be trouble.....lefty...slick..good defense.....lazcano not a big,big puncher...

franks. · Aug 1, 2003

Glad to see you are looking at this on. Had the
same reservations about Lazcano myself. Also
Cotto round prop under 4 versus Ceballos on
Sept 13. I like the over-120. Also on August
16, taking Beyer-140 over Green.

sphincter · Aug 3, 2003

note....on the chavez-singmanasak bout i said that ring didn`t have the thai rated.....that was wrong....fightnews doesn`t have him rated......ring has the thai at #7 and chavez at #3.....should be a great bout...

sphincter · Aug 9, 2003

first one in.....quiles-cauthen goes the full 12....

sphincter · Aug 15, 2003

2-0......chavez by lopsided unanimous decision......my biggest wager in a while....let`s keep it goin`....

valdosta · Aug 15, 2003

Good job, I took Chavez over Singmannusuk also for 1k (at -120 and later at -144). I was to afraid to take Brinkley over Perez and in all honesty I thought Perz won. He was also robbed of a KD also. I am just glad I can get back on this website. My comp hasn't allowed me on here the last week.

Good call on the Cauthen-Quiles over, I didn;t take that 1 either, the chalk was to high. I bet you didn;t know that Quiles put Cauthen down in round 2

sphincter · Aug 15, 2003

yeah...i have to agree.....i had perez winning also.....and that body shot knockdown was absolutely legit....sometimes,it`s better to be lucky than good.....let`s hope there`s a rematch....i don`t think perez will allow it to be close enough to steal the second time around...

and i did reafd that quiles put cauthen down....i was shocked that cauthen was able to come back and do enough to get the decision.....

file that one away....quiles put cauthen down..teddy reid stopped him in one(no embarrassment there)..if cauthen steps up in class,vs the right type of opponent,might be worth taking a look...

good to see you back,v........tomorrow`s another big night....g.l.

valdosta · Aug 15, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
yeah...i have to agree.....i had perez winning also.....and that body shot knockdown was absolutely legit....sometimes,it`s better to be lucky than good.....let`s hope there`s a rematch....i don`t think perez will allow it to be close enough to steal the second time around...

and i did reafd that quiles put cauthen down....i was shocked that cauthen was able to come back and do enough to get the decision.....

file that one away....quiles put cauthen down..teddy reid stopped him in one(no embarrassment there)..if cauthen steps up in class,vs the right type of opponent,might be worth taking a look...

good to see you back,v........tomorrow`s another big night....g.l.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I have 500 on Green to beat Beyer. If that comes through I'll throw a SMALL bet on Johnson by KO at pinnacle. I have saw Montiel knocked down before by a southpaw.

Yes, I agree that Cauthen will get koed soon. He fights very elusively for a reason, his chin is suspect. Getting KD by Quiles shows as much. Even Hurtado took Quiles punches and was OK. nothing wrong with getting koed by Reid though, that guy can crack

tgoodm1 · Aug 16, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by valdosta:
I have 500 on Green to beat Beyer. If that comes through I'll throw a SMALL bet on Johnson by KO at pinnacle. I have saw Montiel knocked down before by a southpaw.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I do not know much about either fighter, but based on the detail of their records, I would not mind taking Green in this one. I would have to back it up though with the over. It seems as if Beyer does not have lots of power, but he may be a slick boxer and cause it to go the distance. If Green presses the action enough, he may get the decision. And if they are biased, it may result in a draw and with this strategy, one still comes out a winner. Worst case is break-even.

tgoodm1 · Aug 16, 2003

Although I do not do much with Pinnacle, I must admit that they offer very attractive proposition lines for underdogs from time to time.

For example, check out the prop line on Marcos Licona winning by decision: +4500. That beats Oly by nearly 3k. Wow!!!

The Mark Johnson props are very attractive as well.

If Pinny offered more lines on boxing, I would go with them often, but they limit their lines on boxing. But when they post, they are usually attractive lines.

valdosta · Aug 16, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by Boxing Freak:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by valdosta:
I have 500 on Green to beat Beyer. If that comes through I'll throw a SMALL bet on Johnson by KO at pinnacle. I have saw Montiel knocked down before by a southpaw.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I do not know much about either fighter, but based on the detail of their records, I would not mind taking Green in this one. I would have to back it up though with the over. It seems as if Beyer does not have lots of power, but he may be a slick boxer and cause it to go the distance. If Green presses the action enough, he may get the decision. And if they are biased, it may result in a draw and with this strategy, one still comes out a winner. Worst case is break-even.

<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I know a bit about both fighters but mostly just reading about Green. I have seen Beyer before and IMO he sucks. He has a suspect chin,isn't particularly elusive and don't punch real hard. His win over Eric Lucas was a gift and I saw his fight where he was kop'ed by shitty Glenn Catley. If Green losses it will tell us a lot about him (he has no future). I have heard he can crack, has a good chin and works behind his jab. If that's the case there's a good chance he KTFO of Markus Beyer. If I lose, I lose but I won't take the over. That could potentially cancel out a win. If Green wins it will be before 10 rounds. He's not winning a decision in Germany. It could also cancel out a loss as if beyer wins it's likely a decision but I'll take my chances.

tgoodm1 · Aug 16, 2003

Of all of the prop bets out there, the easiest pick has to be "Not Johnson by KO or Inside the Distance" versus Montiel. I have never seen Montiel in action and have seen Johnson very little. But based on the detail of their records, I think that it is pretty easy to see this fight either going the distance or Johnson getting KO'd.

At 2:30 EST, "Not Johnson by Ko" line is -1090 at 5 Dimes and -1400 at Pinnacle.

sphincter · Aug 16, 2003

all due respect,bf....but you are gonna lay-1090 on a fight prop......lotsa` luck.....you may hit it,but you are gonna get burned one of these days.....montiel has been down more than once in his career.....be very careful....and g.l.

valdosta · Aug 16, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
all due respect,bf....but you are gonna lay-1090 on a fight prop......lotsa` luck.....you may hit it,but you are gonna get burned one of these days.....montiel has been down more than once in his career.....be very careful....and g.l.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The knockdown against Lopez wasn;t legit. The knockdown against Doliguez WAS legit though. IMO the safest bet would be "NOT JOHNSON BY DECISION". He can't outbox Montiel but he could knock him out.

almly · Aug 16, 2003

Montiel has been on HBO a couple of times. He's Morales's buddy I believe. Didn't he kill that guy in his last fight? That black guy with the curly hair from South America or somewhere? The guy died in his hotel room the next day after the fight. I think it was Montiel. If it is this is his first big fight since that happened. I think he is a good fighter though. I've seen him a couple of times and am impressed.

tgoodm1 · Aug 16, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
all due respect,bf....but you are gonna lay-1090 on a fight prop......lotsa` luck.....you may hit it,but you are gonna get burned one of these days.....montiel has been down more than once in his career.....be very careful....and g.l.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

I have taken everything into account and feel very good about this. I will give you my reasons why.

1. Johnson at 32 years of age, is not as quick as he once was. That does not help at all when fighting someone 8 years younger with such an impressive record as Montiel's.

2. Johnson should not be as strong as he is normally because he has come down in weight to make this fight.

3. Johnson is not a big puncher anymore. Since 1999, he only has 1 KO to his record. And that came against a mediocre opponent with no chin. He has probably never really been a big puncher. Many times, as we all know, if an opponent is being badly outboxed, it takes a toll and either the opponents gives up or the ref comes in to stop the fight.

4. Montiel ought to be the aggressor in this fight and should keep Johnson from applying lots of pressure.

5. Lastly, not trying to sound cocky, but I have already envisioned it not happening. The only way I lose is by chance of some freak occurrence, such as Montiel intentionally headbutting Johnson in the 6th and preventing Johnson from continuing.

[This message was edited by Boxing Freak on August 16, 2003 at 09:08 PM.]

[This message was edited by Boxing Freak on August 16, 2003 at 09:10 PM.]

tgoodm1 · Aug 16, 2003

By the way Sphincter, it is usually with fight props that the easiest money is made in boxing. That is my humble opinion. I have had lots of success with props. For example, I am waiting for props to come out on the Ali/Martin fight. I like Ali a lot in this fight, but I think easier money can be made with the props. I am hoping for a prop such as "Not Martin inside the distance". I am sure that books feel Martin has a chance to take her out because of her reputation as a heavy hitter. But at this stage of her career against Ali, she has no chance taking out Ali. So I feel the line will be low enough for me so that I will not have risk much. Hopefully it will be around -200 or less.

valdosta · Aug 16, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by valdosta:
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote">quote:<HR>Originally posted by sphincter:
all due respect,bf....but you are gonna lay-1090 on a fight prop......lotsa` luck.....you may hit it,but you are gonna get burned one of these days.....montiel has been down more than once in his career.....be very careful....and g.l.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

The knockdown against Lopez wasn;t legit. The knockdown against Doliguez WAS legit though. IMO the safest bet would be "NOT JOHNSON BY DECISION". He can't outbox Montiel but he could knock him out.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

Oops

sphincter · Aug 16, 2003

g.l. with the props,guys.....i just could never,ever lay 10-1 on anything....not the sun coming up...nada.....

...if i had 10-1 on johnson "no k.o." and then saw that flash knockdown in the 5th,i`d have emt`s at the house.....

but,that`s just me....

no offense intended...

we degenerate gamblers don`t always play the same way.....

g.l.

g.l.