W2 picks
[GOW] 5* Chargers -2.5 -111
Love this line. Bosa is likely to play, I don't care about Ekeler, Kelley is a great RB. Chargers are better in the trenches not to compare QBs or playmakers. Chargers winning this easily.
4* 49ers -7 -108
I see the market overreacting here after a good Rams team defeated last week a '22 sham. These Niners could destroy the Rams in his 2nd divisional round in a row.
4* Bengals -3 -115
Looking for the Bengals to bounce back here against an overrated squad. I can see the Bengals' DLine making Lamar's game to be miserable. Burrow should see improved protection in this game.
3* U39 Steelers/Browns -110
Browns have a top 10 NFL defense (probably top 5) and Steelers have a defense better than the 30 points they allowed last week. Tomlin is a coach who makes nice adjustments from week to week to the defense. I can see a tough and close divisional game here with DLines dominating the scrimmage line.
3* Falcons ML - 122
I'm not drinking Jordan Love's Kool-Aid. Think he can eventually be an above-average QB, but he barely has pro experience (110 passing attempts). I expect some inconsistency in his games this first season as a starter. The Falcons might not have the best NFL roster, but they have a clear game plan. Run the ball, manage the clock, and be strong at the offense. Like them winning at home this week.
3* Texans ML -108
This is definitely not going to be the last time I back the Texans this season. Are they in a rebuilding season? yes. Have they a lack of talent and playmakers? yes. Are they rebuilding from the trenches? yes. Do they have a HC to encourage strong fundamentals and build a top D? YES
I think the Texans will be a better team each week. Loved the hiring of DeMeco Ryans who did a great job at SF. The pick of Will Anderson helped to transform the defense. I think he can be the shadow of Anthony Richardson during the game. It'll be a long day for that OLine. On the other side, I see CJ Stroud as a game manager backed by a strong rushing offense, controlling the game clock and winning it.
Love this line. Bosa is likely to play, I don't care about Ekeler, Kelley is a great RB. Chargers are better in the trenches not to compare QBs or playmakers. Chargers winning this easily.
I see the market overreacting here after a good Rams team defeated last week a '22 sham. These Niners could destroy the Rams in his 2nd divisional round in a row.
Looking for the Bengals to bounce back here against an overrated squad. I can see the Bengals' DLine making Lamar's game to be miserable. Burrow should see improved protection in this game.
Browns have a top 10 NFL defense (probably top 5) and Steelers have a defense better than the 30 points they allowed last week. Tomlin is a coach who makes nice adjustments from week to week to the defense. I can see a tough and close divisional game here with DLines dominating the scrimmage line.
I'm not drinking Jordan Love's Kool-Aid. Think he can eventually be an above-average QB, but he barely has pro experience (110 passing attempts). I expect some inconsistency in his games this first season as a starter. The Falcons might not have the best NFL roster, but they have a clear game plan. Run the ball, manage the clock, and be strong at the offense. Like them winning at home this week.
This is definitely not going to be the last time I back the Texans this season. Are they in a rebuilding season? yes. Have they a lack of talent and playmakers? yes. Are they rebuilding from the trenches? yes. Do they have a HC to encourage strong fundamentals and build a top D? YES
I think the Texans will be a better team each week. Loved the hiring of DeMeco Ryans who did a great job at SF. The pick of Will Anderson helped to transform the defense. I think he can be the shadow of Anthony Richardson during the game. It'll be a long day for that OLine. On the other side, I see CJ Stroud as a game manager backed by a strong rushing offense, controlling the game clock and winning it.
Revisiting my picks, I find that they were not bad at all (despite 1-4-2).
Rams backdoor push did hurt. Niners could win that game by multiple TDs.
Saints could also win the game easier.
Expected Steelers D to excel, but not to score two TDs.
Bengals and Texans were plays that I could have skipped. These teams will be interesting (Cincinnati likely be in the following weeks and Houston in the next season or as larger dogs).
And what to say about the Chargers. Their staff is wasting one of the most talented rosters in the league. They need to learn how to tie up the games.
Rams backdoor push did hurt. Niners could win that game by multiple TDs.
Saints could also win the game easier.
Expected Steelers D to excel, but not to score two TDs.
Bengals and Texans were plays that I could have skipped. These teams will be interesting (Cincinnati likely be in the following weeks and Houston in the next season or as larger dogs).
And what to say about the Chargers. Their staff is wasting one of the most talented rosters in the league. They need to learn how to tie up the games.
Week 3
4* Redskins +6 -112
4* O54 Chargers/Vikings -110 - Love the O7.5 receptions of JJetas in this game +100.
3* Saints +1.5 -109
3* Raiders -2.5 -118 - ensure to grab the hook
I'm fading Desmond Ridder this week, not the Falcons. He has the highest rate of TO-worthy plays. He's shown inconsistent play in these two weeks.
I think the Lions DLine will be able to put enough pressure to force at least one INT.
So I'm playing half units to Over 0.5 interceptions of the following players:
I'm fading Desmond Ridder this week, not the Falcons. He has the highest rate of TO-worthy plays. He's shown inconsistent play in these two weeks.
I think the Lions DLine will be able to put enough pressure to force at least one INT.
So I'm playing half units to Over 0.5 interceptions of the following players:
- Jeff Okudah +1000
- Jerry Jacobs +1000
- Tracy Walker +1000
- Cameron Sutton +750
Redskins were fighting in the Q1, then Bills DLine pressured Howell who started to make mistakes. This game should have been closer.
Bad luck in the Minnesota game. There were multiple chances to cash the over. No way.
The Saints cashed but should have blown out the Packers. Carr's injury didn't help. It's nice to know that its defense was not able to hold a 3-score advantage.
Garoppolo wanted to be Kenny Pickett for one day. Wrong side there.
Regarding the INT prop. The Lions' D dropped a couple of bad passes from Ridder, the most clear from Tracy Walker. I'm not done with these props.
1-3 this week. 6-11-2 YTD.
Bad luck in the Minnesota game. There were multiple chances to cash the over. No way.
The Saints cashed but should have blown out the Packers. Carr's injury didn't help. It's nice to know that its defense was not able to hold a 3-score advantage.
Garoppolo wanted to be Kenny Pickett for one day. Wrong side there.
Regarding the INT prop. The Lions' D dropped a couple of bad passes from Ridder, the most clear from Tracy Walker. I'm not done with these props.
1-3 this week. 6-11-2 YTD.
Week 4 action
4* SF -7 1st Half -115 - I see the Niners being super dominant in the first half. Arizona comes off an upset win.
4* U40.5 Bucs/Saints -110 - Div game among two good defenses. The Saints have Carr and the starting Center out. Expect Todd Bowles and Dennis Allen to fight for control of the game, optimizing the clock and using the run game.
4* O46.5 Broncos/Bears -110 - Two of the 5 worst defenses in the NFL and two offenses that are not that bad.
3* Cowboys -5.5 -110 - This line Is an overreaction to the LW loss at Arizona & respect to Belichick. Dallas should bounce back here.
After studying the 2022&2023 turnover-worthy rate play % of each NFL QB, their week 4 matchup (OL vs DL and Coverage will face), I'll play
1 unit to Over 0.5 interceptions on each of these QBs:
- Kenny Pickett vs Texans +105
- Brice Young vs Vikings -120
- Lamar Jackson vs Browns -110
- Joshua Dobbs vs 49ers -130
After studying the 2022&2023 turnover-worthy rate play % of each NFL QB, their week 4 matchup (OL vs DL and Coverage will face), I'll play
1 unit to Over 0.5 interceptions on each of these QBs:
- Kenny Pickett vs Texans +105
- Brice Young vs Vikings -120
- Lamar Jackson vs Browns -110
- Joshua Dobbs vs 49ers -130
Finally a 4-0 week.
Re: Interceptions.
Kenny Picket cashed. Brice Young was overprotected, throwing short passes mostly. Will try again against a better D.
Cleveland D really disappointed me this week. Lamar just had to throw 19 times. Joshua Dobbs somehow threw 41 passes in SF, some of them really dangerous, and didn't get intercepted.
Re: Interceptions.
Kenny Picket cashed. Brice Young was overprotected, throwing short passes mostly. Will try again against a better D.
Cleveland D really disappointed me this week. Lamar just had to throw 19 times. Joshua Dobbs somehow threw 41 passes in SF, some of them really dangerous, and didn't get intercepted.
1-unit Geno Smith Over 0.5 interceptions +135
Starting LT and C have been dealing with injuries. Giants Pass rush is probably the best asset of the team, looking for the front-7 to put pressure on a weak OLine and force Geno to make mistakes.
10-11-2 YTD record
Starting LT and C have been dealing with injuries. Giants Pass rush is probably the best asset of the team, looking for the front-7 to put pressure on a weak OLine and force Geno to make mistakes.
10-11-2 YTD record
This game should have been closer, but when your OLine is trash, your QB fumbles twice and throws two interceptions, it does not. Geno just had to throw 20 times. Mostly short-mid passes. KT5 dropped an interception in Q2 (potential pick-6 ?).
So not a bad pick at all. Will continue to look for interception-prone matchups.
So not a bad pick at all. Will continue to look for interception-prone matchups.
Week 5 action:
4* NY Jets +2.5 -105 - Grab the +3 at -120 or better. The Jets have a strong D that will make RW3 night very very long. Z.Wilson should face the easiest D in the season.
3* Lions -9.5 -110 - The Panthers' biggest strength is the pass rush, and the Lions own a strong OLine. Expect a big blowout here.
3* U38 Steelers/Ravens -112 - Divisional game among two strong defenses and weak OLines. Coaches burning the clock. Expect a low score here.
Adding one more play for MNF:
3* U46 Packers/Raiders -110 - Packers have multiple injuries in the OLine. Davante Adams is questionable. Even if he plays will face one of the best CBs in the game (Jaire Alexander). So I expect McDaniels to put more workload on the running game. Garoppolo is back from the concussion. So Raiders should overprotect him from the Packers' pass rush with an extra lineman. Low score game.
