Bowl Season

[ofred]

Late post, but I have UTEP +10 for one unit. The game just started is 0-0 right now.

I have had a fairly rough season handicapping so fade at will. However, last season I had a very good bowl season so I thought I'd throw a few plays out there.

UTEP +10. One unit. Like the mentality that Sean Kugler has brought to this team and they have defended well all season. Kugler is a long time OL coach and this is another strength of this UTEP team. Utah St. is also solid defensively, but they do not have a dynamic offense, and is playing a freshman QB, who started the year as a 4th stringer.

Air Force +2.5. 4 units. Really like Air Force here going against steam that hasn't defended their option attack. AF's Mt. West opponents and Navy struggled to contain it, and I just can't see WMU having much luck making stops on this AF offense. Air Force also has the experience playing on the blue field of Boise, with more upperclassmen on their roster. WMU has fattened up on a truly dreadful MAC conference, which is worse this year than their usual weak years. I remember well how Buffalo was favored last year, and the pick of many, last year vs. SD St. in a bowl game, and then got dominated. And how NIU got beat up by Utah St. in their bowl game. WMU has at least 5 wins vs. terrible opponents- many that have almost no offense or defense (EMU, Murrray St, Ohio, Idaho, Miami, OH, etc.)

Good luck to all this bowl season.

 

[richporter]

got them as well.. idc but someone might bitch your posting this 40mins after the game started. gluck to us lets go miners

 

[cashflow50]

Dang where were you all year Fred..missed your insights

 

[ofred]

got them as well.. idc but someone might bitch your posting this 40mins after the game started. gluck to us lets go miners

I won't count that one, I'll just collect (I hope).

 

[fballgenius]

Welcome back o. I missed ya

 

[JrBoy]

always look frrward to your posts ofred thx!

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck on AF as well. Auto fading the MAC in the bowls. Great half by AF, WM now in A world of hurt. Added more AF at the half. Easiest play of the, academy teams vs MAC? LMAO no contest.

 

[RussellPeters]

Fumble return for a TD by AF!!! Woo Hoo! Up 31-17 now. Go Falcons!!! Let's finish the game off strong now!

 

[RussellPeters]

Congrats on the big AF winner o fred! AF up 38-17 late in the 4th quarter...easy win for you!

 

[ofred]

Before I begin with my next 2 plays, let me say this is not a "Fade the MAC" posting. After all, Bowling Green just won their bowl game vs. South Alabama. But did you notice that puny -3 spread that SA had to cover. That's an indication of how bad SA's offense has been all year. This is a team with zero wins against quality opponents this year, and a QB (Bridge) that was only accurate within about 6 yards, with a 52% completion pct, and a running game that only came alive vs. horrible defenses(think Troy or Georgia St). So Bowling Green, due to their general suckiness this year, lucked out and got a very bad bowl team opponent. That being said:

The MAC is truly a lame-ass conference. It has often been a conference of haves and have-nots, with the haves being in possession of some very good QBs and playmakers on offense. This year the MAC has the have-nots without any top notch teams to dominate. As proof, Western Michigan was 1-11 in 2013, and then with one very good recruiting class went 8-4 and can suddenly beat or compete with teams that pulverized them the year before. Toledo, NIU, Ohio and BGU are not what they used to be. Here's my theory: The MAC has always gotten the leftovers from the Big 10, but now the Big 10 is not very successful at keeping their top local recruits. They're going to the SEC or other schools of the ACC or Big 12. That's why the Big 10 has looked so bad the past few years, and teams like Purdue, Illinois and Indiana(the bottom dwellers) are getting especially poor recruiting classes. So the leftovers for the MAC are week-old leftovers, players that are less athletic and with more baggage. The MAC now has mediocre teams at the top and very weak teams at the bottom.

When we hear or read about the strengths of the better MAC teams, remember that these strengths(or stats) are shown playing against some very bad competition. That WMU has a dynamic passing game and a pretty good defense…. yes, against Eastern Michigan, UMass, Kent, Buffalo, Murray State, Ball St, etc. But we can see against Air Force, a team that is fairly near dead last in recruiting, that these strengths don't show up so well. And these weaknesses and lack of "real strengths" show up more at bowl time than at the beginning of the season. WMU gets beat up by AF, NIU, with Jordan Lynch, can barely score vs. Utah State last year, Buffalo gets steamrolled by SD St, Ohio beaten by 17 to ECU, and so on… A MAC team beating Purdue(a very awful Big 10 team), as Central Michigan did, seem to be something that happens only early in the year, when the better team is treating the game like an exhibition and the weaker team treats it like a bowl game. When ND St. beat Kansas St. last year in the first week, did we really think ND ST. was the better team? No. Kansas St. would have murdered them in a bowl game 4 months later. And a bowl game is like the perfect one game season in which a motivated and better team will prevail. Usually.

 

[ofred]

Western Kentucky -3. Four units. Central Michigan is said to have a good defense and WKU a good offense. Therefore a wash, a 3 point line. But CMU's defense had a number of piss poor outings, with only one good performance vs. a decent offense (NIU). They gave up 369 yards to Kansas, when KU's offense was playing much worse than they did at the end of the season….they gave up 40 to Syracuse, an offense that also had major scoring issues, 42 to Toledo, 32 to Ball St, 473 yards and 27 points to Miami OH… I also think Coach Enos has done a poor job coaching and managing his team. They've had numerous off-field incidents and their 4 captains refused to shake hands at the beginning of their final game with WMU(all seniors), causing Enos to withdraw them as captains. The senior leadership used their final home game to act like spoiled brats- a game they lost after a 14-0 lead. CMU is a widely inconsistent team that gets penalized plenty, turns the ball over, and at times lacks execution on the field. Cooper Rush, their QB, is fairly immobile, but a decent passer. He can be risky with the ball, giving up 4 TOs in that final game. I don't trust Enos to prepare his team well for a bowl game in the Bahamas, and I think CMU is a team that only got to a bowl game off the backs of some very poor competition this year.

WKU came on strong at the end of the year after a brutal loss to La. Tech at mid-season. True, they don't have a good defense, but even the D played better in their last 3-4 games. I just think they'll outscore anything CMU will put up in points, and I do think CMU's offense will actually play better than their supposedly good D. WKU's offense finally began to run the ball after that LT loss, and it has made all the difference for them. Doughty, their QB, is probably one of the best QBs in the country at timing his passes, throwing with pinpoint accuracy, and making good decisions. He leads a creative offense that uses many different looks and throws the ball to many different receivers. Jeff Brohm, the HC, is very well respected for his offensive chops, and has brought a more positive vibe to the team after the Petrino era. I think this spread is only 3 because of the perception that WKU's defense is so bad that they'll give up as many points as they score. Maybe to Marshall, but not CMU.

 

[ofred]

Marshall -10. Two units. This one for only 2 units because NIU actually is much better coached, with a little better talent than CMU. Ten points could be also a back door cover. Still, I think Marshall will be motivated here. They have some unhappy fans, feeling that playing a MAC team does nothing to further their ranking or national reputation. But Doc Holliday chose this game over later bowl games because NIU is a conference winner, unlike someone like North Carolina or Rutgers, which are mediocre teams from better conferences. Marshall fans, though, are a supportive bunch, and I expect they'll be there to cheer on their team. Marshall is playing in Florida, where 28 of their players call home- another motivation. I like Cato (he reminds me of Russell Wilson), Holliday (tough but caring), and the great senior leadership(20 seniors, most of them key players). They have 55 returning players from 2013, and I was very impressed in the way they handled Maryland in last year's bowl game. NIU also has a lot of upperclassmen, but without playmaker Lynch, their offense doesn't click like it used to. Drew Hare, their sophomore QB, is fairly careful with the ball, but an inconsistent passer, and not the runner that Lynch was. Marshall also has a more stout defense and better athletes on that side of the ball. You might think that Marshall (like NIU) also played a weak schedule, which they did, but in many games dominated so much in the 1st half that they barely played the starters in the 2nd half. WKU scored big on them, but NIU is not anything like WKU. Marshall also ended the season on a positive note, beating a very good La. Tech team in the conference championship- holding their offense in check to 268 yards and 72 yards passing.

 

[RussellPeters]

Good luck o fred!

Take a look at his video of CMU's players waiting for the announcement of their bowl game in Bahamas and celebrating lol one would think they will be more interested in partying it up there and not focusing on prep time for their bowl game? Surf & Sand theory, these kids will be more interested in the local party scene than their actual game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgOjiHTcgGc

 

[indiana]

Fred............good luck with your action..........you and your family have a great Holiday.........indy

 

[secondcity]

Good luck o fred!

Take a look at his video of CMU's players waiting for the announcement of their bowl game in Bahamas and celebrating lol one would think they will be more interested in partying it up there and not focusing on prep time for their bowl game? Surf & Sand theory, these kids will be more interested in the local party scene than their actual game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lgOjiHTcgGc

I love that video. How could you not have that reaction when Detroit is the alternative

 

[ofred]

Marshall -10. Two units. This one for only 2 units because NIU actually is much better coached, with a little better talent than CMU. Ten points could be also a back door cover. Still, I think Marshall will be motivated here. They have some unhappy fans, feeling that playing a MAC team does nothing to further their ranking or national reputation. But Doc Holliday chose this game over later bowl games because NIU is a conference winner, unlike someone like North Carolina or Rutgers, which are mediocre teams from better conferences. Marshall fans, though, are a supportive bunch, and I expect they'll be there to cheer on their team. Marshall is playing in Florida, where 28 of their players call home- another motivation. I like Cato (he reminds me of Russell Wilson), Holliday (tough but caring), and the great senior leadership(20 seniors, most of them key players). They have 55 returning players from 2013, and I was very impressed in the way they handled Maryland in last year's bowl game. NIU also has a lot of upperclassmen, but without playmaker Lynch, their offense doesn't click like it used to. Drew Hare, their sophomore QB, is fairly careful with the ball, but an inconsistent passer, and not the runner that Lynch was. Marshall also has a more stout defense and better athletes on that side of the ball. You might think that Marshall (like NIU) also played a weak schedule, which they did, but in many games dominated so much in the 1st half that they barely played the starters in the 2nd half. WKU scored big on them, but NIU is not anything like WKU. Marshall also ended the season on a positive note, beating a very good La. Tech team in the conference championship- holding their offense in check to 268 yards and 72 yards passing.

I've upped this play to 3 units. I'm convinced that Marshall has the defensive speed to handle whatever NIU has going offensively. Marshall is deep defensively, with some very talented freshmen and sophomores as backups. This 10 pt. spread should easily cover IF they are excited and interested to be in this bowl game. Despite some fan grumblings, it seems that Marshall, and their coaching staff, seems very focused and the seniors have been great all year about taking care of business.

 

[ofred]

Win or lose this play, Marshall was the right bet. They just look physically superior, and I don't think NIU can stop their O. Marshall also is NOT being sloppy so they are obviously focused. Hopefully that will be for 4Q..

 

[cashflow50]

Looks good to me fred...

 

[RussellPeters]

Win or lose this play, Marshall was the right bet. They just look physically superior, and I don't think NIU can stop their O. Marshall also is NOT being sloppy so they are obviously focused. Hopefully that will be for 4Q..

Marshall in complete control up 25 in the 4th qtr good luck rest of the way!

 

[ofred]

Marshall, at times, were like men among boys.