BOWL Season Thread

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I'll have a play for this Saturday. Waiting for a line change on one of the FCS games. For clarity, I'll rate each play a 1-10. This means a 10 is ten times the $ of a one, or twice as much $ as a five. (I know, duh…) Fade or follow, I don't care.

7* New Mexico +10.5 This is the perfect team to upset Arizona. New Mexico might have the best running attack in the Mt. West if you go by the 2nd half of the season. They beat Air Force and Boise(in Boise) and Utah St. This is a team that has played a far better 2nd half than 1st half, so I am going to assume this is a team that is very primed and excited to be in a bowl game. They also had to play some defense to win those late season games, at least enough to stay in the game to win. Arizona has struggled to stop the run all year, and hasn't seen a triple option attack like the Lobos have. Watched a lot of PAC 12 this year, and this Arizona defense is easily at the bottom with the Beavers as a far as tackling and swarming the ball. NMU is your live running dog, a team that could pull the upset here.

Arizona has to be a lot less excited playing playing in the New Mexico Bowl(in the Lobos home stadium), and went 3-6 after starting the year 3-0. Their lone signature win was vs. a fading Utah team at home. I believe this used to be a rivalry, but not for the past 5-6 years. Like most rivalry games, there were many close scores. NMU uses 2 QBs, Apodoca the better passer, but Jordan the much better runner. They have made it work the past 4-5 games. Arizona does get Scooby Wright back, but he's coming off of knee and foot injuries, and I expect he'll be a little less than the player he was. Arizona has 3 other LBs out for the bowl game, two who were starters. New Mexico is a veteran team with almost all returning offensive skill players. They will not play it safe or to keep it close, but to win. ML bet possible.

 

[cashflow50]

gl this bowl season my friend. My numbers show that zona only a 7pt fav. NM great shot at winning str8 up.

 

[ofred]

gl this bowl season my friend. My numbers show that zona only a 7pt fav. NM great shot at winning str8 up.

Good luck to you too and Happy Bowl Season.

 

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3* Army +21.5 Coaches are long time friends and I think we'll see Navy play to win, not for the slaughter. Army has played many close games this year, only losing by this point spread once- to Duke. They lost 3 games in the waning moments of the game. Army also might play freshman Chris Carter at times, a good dual threat who could keep Navy honest in pass defense, or at least help a back door cover. The last 3 of 4 years have been close games, with Army turning the ball over in 2 of them just enough to lose. Navy has the definite advantage here as they have one of their better recent teams, but Army is a better team than their record, playing Penn St, Wake, UConn, and Rutgers closely. One of the nice things about the large spread is that with all of the running, the clock runs off quickly. Army needs to get some first downs, an occasional score, and play well on special teams. Navy has beaten up teams that have are not prepared to defend their offense. At least Army will be well prepared for that. Finally, rumors of Navy coach, Ken Nimatalo, being hired by BYU. Distraction? Probably not, but good chance he takes it if he's offered.

 

[secondcity]

Do military schools ever get distracted?

 

[Hamilbet]

No

 

[ofred]

No

Obviously not

 

[ofred]

2* Sam Houston St. -10 (-120) This game has been move to 11:00 AM due to weather conditions.This will be more advantageous to SH because of their better passing game. I like SH her partly because they have played better competition than what Colgate has played in the Patriot League. The Patriot League is one of the weaker FCS conferences, and Colgate is the only cinderella team left of the final 8. They play the weakest defense of the final 8, and are pretty much a running team on offense. SH has better athletes on both sides of the ball, are at home, and coming off an impressive win vs. a very good Mcneese St. team. They are a team that score on anybody, and I don't see Colgate keeping up. Colgate might feel they have already easily surpassed their expectations just winning last week vs. James Madison.

 

[fballgenius]

Nice pick with Sam Houston St, fred. Good luck moving forward into bowl season.

 

[ofred]

6* Utah -2.5 I guess the linesmakers are not willing to give BYU +3 yet, unless you want to pay the juice. Had to research Utah and feel them out for this bowl game. Even though this bowl offering is a disappointment relative to the season they've had, I think there are reasons why Utah wins here.

1) They are playing an in-state rival, close to home (Vegas). There will be plenty of fan support for both sides. But the motivation and excitement will be there to beat BYU.
2) Kyle Whittingam is 7-1 as a bowl coach for the Utes. Some of his wins have been very impressive, such as beating Alabama as an 11 point underdog. Their only loss was vs. one of the lights-out Boise teams,when Utah was lucky to be there and Boise, led by Kellen Clemens, was just real good. Whittingham obviously plays these bowls to win, and knows how to prepare his team.
3) Bronco Mendenhall is 6-4 as a bowl coach, losing his last 2. BUT…he has been hired as the new coach at UVA, and is taking 6 of his best assistants with him. Are these coaches preoccupied with selling their homes, buying new homes, recruiting, making arrangements, etc. OR are they focused on this bowl game. Are the BYU players let down, losing their mentors and facing an uncertain future?
4) Devontae Booker is out. I guess that explains this spread, but his replacement, Joe Williams, has been magnificent as a replacement- 308 yards rushing his last 2 games. In fact, if your bowl strategy includes taking the better running team, then Utah is far better off considering what a quality runner QB Wilson is. BYU's QB is more of a pocket passer, and they don't have anyone comparable to J. Williams as a far as I can tell.
5) BYU's schedule has been far easier, playing some Mt. West teams, Wagner, ECU, etc. They have not had as much luck vs.better competition, losing to UCLA, Missouri and Michigan. Utah's defense has been put through the grind, having to face one PAC 12 offense after another. They have an excellent front 7 that I think gives freshman Tanner Magnum some trouble. He has a shaky OL, which has caused him to be sacked and hurried often.

Travis Wilson, the senior Utah QB, has his critics, me being one. But he is extremely gutsy, will break off some nice runs, and other than a couple of bad games this year, has mostly played well. His top WR is questionable, but there are some indications he'll play. Let the Holy War in Sin City begin!

 

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3* Appalachian St. -7 (-125) I liked Appalachian State before the line opened a couple of weeks ago. But at -9, not so much. Now at 7, I'll take a bite. Appalachian State has a fan base that travels well, making this almost like a home game in Alabama. They are pumped about appearing in their 1st bowl game as an FBS team. They are a veteran team that will graduate many players, and I think they'll play this bowl game knowing this is a special team that is 9-2, but will be something different next year(and slightly weaker).

I also favor very good running teams, which Appalachian State is. They have their star, Marcus Cox, at 1261 yards. Jalin Moore, who averages 7.4 per run, Terrance Upshaw at almost 6 yards per run, and a very good running QB- Taylor Lamb. Lamb has only been sacked 9 times this year, and I think he'll be the difference maker here. He is a better dual QB than whoever Ohio puts out there, has the mentality of a coach, and with the extra time to prepare, will be extra dangerous here.

Ohio just seems a little more focused on resting the injured players, getting reps for younger players, and happy to go to a bowl game. They have played a slightly tougher schedule than App State, but their 8-4 record needs some scrutiny. They got hammered by 3 MAC teams in consecutive games- losing by an average of 34 points. They were lucky to beat Akron- due to TOs. Their close game with Minnesota was early in the season and were outplayed by about 125 yards, beat NIU with their 2nd and 4th string QBs, but worst of all- they have been absolutely gouged by the run this year. Especially against the quality teams. I just never like MAC teams in bowl games when they DON'T have a dynamic offense or a run stopping defense- which is Ohio. Ohio does have a veteran coach, some decent mid-level MAC talent, and will score at times in this game. App State has good defensive stats, but they can be vulnerable too. But I just think App St. will give Ohio fits when on offense. They also seem like the more motivated team. Could be an over too.

 

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3* Appalachian St. -7 (-125) I liked Appalachian State before the line opened a couple of weeks ago. But at -9, not so much. Now at 7, I'll take a bite. Appalachian State has a fan base that travels well, making this almost like a home game in Alabama. They are pumped about appearing in their 1st bowl game as an FBS team. They are a veteran team that will graduate many players, and I think they'll play this bowl game knowing this is a special team that is 9-2, but will be something different next year(and slightly weaker).

I also favor very good running teams, which Appalachian State is. They have their star, Marcus Cox, at 1261 yards. Jalin Moore, who averages 7.4 per run, Terrance Upshaw at almost 6 yards per run, and a very good running QB- Taylor Lamb. Lamb has only been sacked 9 times this year, and I think he'll be the difference maker here. He is a better dual QB than whoever Ohio puts out there, has the mentality of a coach, and with the extra time to prepare, will be extra dangerous here.

Ohio just seems a little more focused on resting the injured players, getting reps for younger players, and happy to go to a bowl game. They have played a slightly tougher schedule than App State, but their 8-4 record needs some scrutiny. They got hammered by 3 MAC teams in consecutive games- losing by an average of 34 points. They were lucky to beat Akron- due to TOs. Their close game with Minnesota was early in the season and were outplayed by about 125 yards, beat NIU with their 2nd and 4th string QBs, but worst of all- they have been absolutely gouged by the run this year. Especially against the quality teams. I just never like MAC teams in bowl games when they DON'T have a dynamic offense or a run stopping defense- which is Ohio. Ohio does have a veteran coach, some decent mid-level MAC talent, and will score at times in this game. App State has good defensive stats, but they can be vulnerable too. But I just think App St. will give Ohio fits when on offense. They also seem like the more motivated team. Could be an over too.

Correction: App St. went 10-2 this year. Going back to last year's 6 game winning streak to the end the season, they're 16-2 in their last 18.

 

[bully07]

 

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3* Richmond +14 For Richmond's sake, thank god this game is indoors. Outdoors it'll be about 5-10 degrees, and that would definitely be an issue for a team from Virginia. I like Richmond because they are playing the best football right now in the FCS playoffs. They beat a very good Illinois State team by 12 points, totaling 556 yards of offense, holding the best runner in FCS football(Marshaun Coprich) to 2.1 yards per rush. They also blew out William and Mary the week before. Their confidence is sky high right now. ND St. is the perennial champion, and always has a great running game. Richmond should be able to keep it somewhat limited, and force ND St. to pass, which isn't their strength. Richmond's offense is strong passing and running. Kyle Lauletta has improved as the season progressed, passing for 369 yards vs. a tough ILL. St. defense. Jacobi Green has a 6.2 yards per carry average and over 1500 yards for the season.

I also like this game because ND St, though still the team to beat, has not been as dominant as in the past. Two losses and a number of close wins. They are giving up too many points here in what should be a close game. Richmond lost to Maryland, and 2 other very close losses- one of which they lost on TOs. Richmond has a chance for the outright win- though not likely.

 

[ofred]

3* Appalachian St. -7 (-125) I liked Appalachian State before the line opened a couple of weeks ago. But at -9, not so much. Now at 7, I'll take a bite. Appalachian State has a fan base that travels well, making this almost like a home game in Alabama. They are pumped about appearing in their 1st bowl game as an FBS team. They are a veteran team that will graduate many players, and I think they'll play this bowl game knowing this is a special team that is 9-2, but will be something different next year(and slightly weaker).

I also favor very good running teams, which Appalachian State is. They have their star, Marcus Cox, at 1261 yards. Jalin Moore, who averages 7.4 per run, Terrance Upshaw at almost 6 yards per run, and a very good running QB- Taylor Lamb. Lamb has only been sacked 9 times this year, and I think he'll be the difference maker here. He is a better dual QB than whoever Ohio puts out there, has the mentality of a coach, and with the extra time to prepare, will be extra dangerous here.

Ohio just seems a little more focused on resting the injured players, getting reps for younger players, and happy to go to a bowl game. They have played a slightly tougher schedule than App State, but their 8-4 record needs some scrutiny. They got hammered by 3 MAC teams in consecutive games- losing by an average of 34 points. They were lucky to beat Akron- due to TOs. Their close game with Minnesota was early in the season and were outplayed by about 125 yards, beat NIU with their 2nd and 4th string QBs, but worst of all- they have been absolutely gouged by the run this year. Especially against the quality teams. I just never like MAC teams in bowl games when they DON'T have a dynamic offense or a run stopping defense- which is Ohio. Ohio does have a veteran coach, some decent mid-level MAC talent, and will score at times in this game. App State has good defensive stats, but they can be vulnerable too. But I just think App St. will give Ohio fits when on offense. They also seem like the more motivated team. Could be an over too.

Making this a ​4*

 

[ofred]

2* Georgia St. / San Jose- under 28 1H (Write-up tomorrow)

 

[ofred]

2* Georgia St. / San Jose- under 28 1H (Write-up tomorrow)

This bowl is actually called the AutoNation Cure Bowl. I'm not kidding. Should be titled the "We Suck and are Lucky to be Still Playing Bowl". Anyways, these two teams are from 2 weak conferences, and are actually playing up in quality of opponent or ability to score vs. opponent. San Jose is from the better conference, but is 5-7, and has only one signature win(vs. NMU). Georgia State is from the Sun Belt, which is like the MAC, and played well in their last 7 games. Georgia State's defense played pretty well in those last 7 games, especially vs. the run- which is San Jose's strength. And Georgia State is pretty much a passing offense, which plays to SJ's strength- their pass defense. Both teams have poor OLs as evidenced by the 60 or so cumulative sacks of the 2 teams. Sacks kill drives. You can bet both defensive coordinators will bring the pressure knowing this. I also like this game 1H because it often takes a quarter or more for offenses to get in synch after the long lay off. All it takes is a few missed 3rd down conversions, and you have punts and field goals. Then you have two teams with almost no bowl experience( San Jose played in a 2012 bowl) and the early butterflies that goes with it. Talking myself into a 3*...

 

[ofred]

6* Utah -2.5 I guess the linesmakers are not willing to give BYU +3 yet, unless you want to pay the juice. Had to research Utah and feel them out for this bowl game. Even though this bowl offering is a disappointment relative to the season they've had, I think there are reasons why Utah wins here.

1) They are playing an in-state rival, close to home (Vegas). There will be plenty of fan support for both sides. But the motivation and excitement will be there to beat BYU.
2) Kyle Whittingam is 7-1 as a bowl coach for the Utes. Some of his wins have been very impressive, such as beating Alabama as an 11 point underdog. Their only loss was vs. one of the lights-out Boise teams,when Utah was lucky to be there and Boise, led by Kellen Clemens, was just real good. Whittingham obviously plays these bowls to win, and knows how to prepare his team.
3) Bronco Mendenhall is 6-4 as a bowl coach, losing his last 2. BUT…he has been hired as the new coach at UVA, and is taking 6 of his best assistants with him. Are these coaches preoccupied with selling their homes, buying new homes, recruiting, making arrangements, etc. OR are they focused on this bowl game. Are the BYU players let down, losing their mentors and facing an uncertain future?
4) Devontae Booker is out. I guess that explains this spread, but his replacement, Joe Williams, has been magnificent as a replacement- 308 yards rushing his last 2 games. In fact, if your bowl strategy includes taking the better running team, then Utah is far better off considering what a quality runner QB Wilson is. BYU's QB is more of a pocket passer, and they don't have anyone comparable to J. Williams as a far as I can tell.
5) BYU's schedule has been far easier, playing some Mt. West teams, Wagner, ECU, etc. They have not had as much luck vs.better competition, losing to UCLA, Missouri and Michigan. Utah's defense has been put through the grind, having to face one PAC 12 offense after another. They have an excellent front 7 that I think gives freshman Tanner Magnum some trouble. He has a shaky OL, which has caused him to be sacked and hurried often.

Travis Wilson, the senior Utah QB, has his critics, me being one. But he is extremely gutsy, will break off some nice runs, and other than a couple of bad games this year, has mostly played well. His top WR is questionable, but there are some indications he'll play. Let the Holy War in Sin City begin!

Utah might also have the best punter and kicker in the PAC 12. Special teams edge worth a point or two.

 

[ofred]

2* WKU/ USF- over 66.5

1* Teaser: WKU/ USF- over 58.5
Toledo/ Temple- under 59
Akron/ USU- under 55.5

I'll have a play or two on the unders later on. As for WKU and USF, we are seeing one offense(USF) that was red hot to end the season. They combine a great running attack, with Quinton Flowers' ability to move around the pocket, run on the fly, and pass off a scramble. He is extremely elusive and I don't think the WKU defense will be able to handle him AND Marlon Mack and the other runners for USF. WKU is an offense, that with the extra prep time, will also be dangerous. Though USF has decent defensive talent, WKU has everything on offense- a slew of playmaker receivers, a running attack, good OL, and the best pocket passer, arguably, in the country. In these big games, offenses like these tend to bring their A game, and add some new kinks that defenses haven't seen in their film study. I predict at least one explosive quarter here of 28-31 points that will make this over happen. Two very good QBs, both teams can run and pass very well, warm weather, a show-me type game- all the recipes of a lot of a shootout.

 

[ofred]

Can't believe how Richmond didn't show up in the 1st half tonight. Oh well… 2-1, +1.7 units so far.

These two are kind of a combination bet. I think I'll win both, but at least should go 1-1 at worst. In the early bowls, there are always a number of low scoring games, usually involving teams just like these 4.

4* Toledo/ Temple- under 50 Temple and Toledo are the best defensive teams in their conferences. Temple for sure, and Toledo is at least the most physical. Watched them physically manhandle Bowling Green and hold Arkansas to 16 points. If you go by points per game allowed, or points scored per game, it is very deceptive. Both of these teams played a number of really bad teams, which tends to inflate offensive numbers. When Toledo scored about 140 points against 3 of the MAC cupcakes, you might think they're an offensive dynamo. But really Toledo is a very good running team, and not nearly as good at passing- especially vs. better defenses. And I believe Toledo hasn't seen a defense as good as Temple's.

Temple's D ranks high in many national defensive categories, and that's with an average schedule, not a Sun Belt/ MAC type schedule. 9th in TFL, 13th in 3rd down conversions against, 13th best passing D, 29th in red zone defense, 28th in sacks. Toledo's D is 3rd in red zone defense, 11th in rushing D, and the best statistical defense in the MAC. Their numbers are not inflated since they played a very good offense in Ark. St, Arkansas and Iowa State- in non-conference play. Both are run heavy offenses that throw more possession type passes than big plays. Toledo has had a coaching carousel going on, losing their HC and some assistants. Temple's coach is more of a defensive guru. Temple has had a number of games this year under this number, holding in check Houston, Memphis, Notre Dame, ECU and Penn St. But they have also had trouble scoring themselves. Look for a 35-45 point total here.