Bowl pool 1-34

[ACE-ACE]

(straight up) for each game and assign them "confidence point" from 1-34


IM IN THE POOL WITH 78 OTHER AS OF NOW $100 TO GET IN...WINNER GETS 70%...2ND 25% ....3RD 5%

MY PLAYS WITH CONFIDENCE POINTS

LOUSIANA T.........4
NAVY...................21
FRENO ST.............28
MEMPHIS................1
BYU.....................23
TROY...................17
TCU.....................18
ND.......................15
C-MICH.................32
NC........................22
WIS......................30
CALF.....................20
RUTGER.................19
MISSOUR................33
MARYLAND.............25
RICE......................13
OREGON.................34
AIR F.....................14
ORE ST...................12
BC..........................16
KANSAS..................31
G.TECH...................29
IOWA......................5
NEB.........................8
GEO.........................27
USC.........................26
VIR T.......................6
O-MISS.....................9
E-CAR......................11
ALB..........................2
CONN.......................7
TEXAS......................24
BALL ST....................3
FLA...........................10

TIEBREAKER...FLA 45 VS 28


I MAKE MY STAND ON THOSE PLAYS :toast: AA

 

[TheShotDoctor]

Gl ace-ace

Didn't You Win This Thing Last Season?
If I Recall, You Had It "Locked Up" Early!




All The Best My Friend
---MR. NW---

 

[bobodad]

Do not quite understand this pool. Is that correct that you are most confidence that Oregon will win straight up (with 34 points)?

 

[bigtendominator]

Do not quite understand this pool. Is that correct that you are most confidence that Oregon will win straight up (with 34 points)?

Yes, correct.

 

[ACE-ACE]

Do not quite understand this pool. Is that correct that you are most confidence that Oregon will win straight up (with 34 points)?

that's right Oregon is the best play...SU...the goal to to add up the points at the end of all 34 game and who get the most points wins.

 

[billbeater]

is your ATS list exactly the same ?

 

[OTK]

to me that's ridiculous. even if you think oregon is going to win, making them your top point play makes no sense. the value you are losing out is enormous. thats a +130 dog or so at your top pick when there are -500 favs on the board. i just don't understand it at all. and making bama, a 10 pt fav, your second lowest pick? With that you're saying there are 11 underdogs with a better shot of winning straight up than alabama, and south florida too since you have them losing su? i just dont see it, and i think you're losing out on TONS of value with most of these plays. im not even talking about the picks, just the worth you're giving each one, makes no sense. there are 2 dogs of at least 3 points in your top 5 su locks. im just astounded here unless you get extra points for picking dogs.

anyways, my rant is over. gl..

 

[gmoney72]

I am also confused with Oregon and Alabama. Could you provide further insight for why you put both of these where you did. Thanks

 

[sqvirrel]

Guys, I don't want to speak for Ace, but the strategy here is to acquire the most points, not to order your confidence levels linearly.

For example with Oregon, even if Ace only thinks they are a slight favorite to win, making them his top point play makes sense because the delta he acquires when he is right versus what he loses when he is wrong is enormous.

Right now the oddsmakers have Missouri as the largest favorite. Ace has them at 33.

The linear play might be to put Missouri at 34 and Oregon at 7 or something, and when he is right on both he gets 41 points. When he is wrong about Oregon he gets 34.

In Ace's formula he is risking one point to gain 27 points in a spot where he has an edge! His strategy is why people like him win these things and linear thinkers don't.

 

[gmoney72]

I would think you need all your for sure plays with the most weight on them. You would rather lose a 15pt game then a 34 point game right!?

 

[runandhide21]

Ace

I think i understand what you are doing, however, is there anyway you could explain it a bit more? Thanks and good luck!

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace

I think i understand what you are doing, however, is there anyway you could explain it a bit more? Thanks and good luck!

Confidence points are used to give a different weight to the 34 games in the college bowl season. You'll assign a point value from 1 to 34 to each game based on how strongly you feel about the accuracy of your selection. If your selection is correct, you'll receive points equal to the confidence point value you associated with that game.
So, if you pick Team A to beat Team B, assign the game a confidence point value of 25, and Team A wins, you'd get 25 points for the correct pick, but no points if Team B wins. You don't lose points for an incorrect selection.
Each confidence point value may be used only once. So, after you have assigned 34 points to a game, your next highest available value is 33 points.
Playing is easy — just choose the team you think will win each game and assign a unique confidence value, from 1 to 34, for each pick. Maximize your points by assigning the highest confidence values to your most confident picks. With each correct choice, you earn the confidence points you attributed to that pick.

 

[ACE-ACE]

lets take this one...............
and making bama, a 10 pt fav, your second lowest pick? With that you're saying there are 11 underdogs with a better shot of winning straight up

point is I like Utah with the points this week...so I'm not nuts to buck a ten point line ...so I only put 2 points on the fav....

 

[runandhide21]

Ace

Thanks for your response...I think I may have mislead you on what I was asking...I understand the concept of what to do and I have participate in confidence pick pools in the past I am trying to understand YOUR specific methods (i.e. the Oregon and Wisconsin confidence vs. alabama for example)...I wanted to understand better WHY you pick the way you pick rather than a linear approach like squirrel was describing a couple of posts earlier

 

[ACE-ACE]

Ace

Thanks for your response...I think I may have mislead you on what I was asking...I understand the concept of what to do and I have participate in confidence pick pools in the past I am trying to understand YOUR specific methods (i.e. the Oregon and Wisconsin confidence vs. alabama for example)...I wanted to understand better WHY you pick the way you pick rather than a linear approach like squirrel was describing a couple of posts earlier

lot of tool to point to one game...that why I like Wis...Oregon...A book in Chi told me his sharp bet this game when the line came out and when he place a bet I look...the upper 10 34-24 best plays I plan on betting...so I cap all parts of the game...than it came down to the rest...the thing with bowl game...they dont play for over two weeks...and the rest is not worth a big play...action and trying to find a small edge...Alb was one with a big spend...but I cap the game and like Utah...I know I'm fighting the odds so I when with the fav with only 2 points...I would be happy to see Utah win this outright...happy to give up 2 points....hope this give you a little insight on how I think...look at the odds on this pool.....1-70....10 more just sign up so 80-1 odds that I will win...know some of the players and a lot of them dont know and dont follow like I do....I look at it as cutting the odds to 25-1....betting only 25 players....and remember its only a $100 and I try to have fun as the games are being played that I dont have money on (side money)

 

[kreitmaster]

Rough start but your strategy will keep you alive regardless.

 

[PS68]

Guys, I don't want to speak for Ace, but the strategy here is to acquire the most points, not to order your confidence levels linearly.

For example with Oregon, even if Ace only thinks they are a slight favorite to win, making them his top point play makes sense because the delta he acquires when he is right versus what he loses when he is wrong is enormous.

Right now the oddsmakers have Missouri as the largest favorite. Ace has them at 33.

The linear play might be to put Missouri at 34 and Oregon at 7 or something, and when he is right on both he gets 41 points. When he is wrong about Oregon he gets 34.

In Ace's formula he is risking one point to gain 27 points in a spot where he has an edge! His strategy is why people like him win these things and linear thinkers don't.

that sounds intelligent but isn't...what he is risking is the 33 points he probably gives up by not picking the team that is second most likely to win their game straight up, say Missouri for example. Now you can make the case that the risk/reward is worth it if overwhelming #'s are on one team or another and thus will give you separation from the field in the event you're right (reward) that is better than the alternative scenario if you're wrong....but the point is you're definitely NOT risking one point to gain 27...that's just not accurate.

 

[FlyinHayin]

Wow....

0-4 Start.... haha! Ace I am in the same bowl pick-em! I followed you to the "T" on the line up! I know it's not how you start... But HOW YOU FINISH that counts! Let GET EM BACK!!! Auuuuright!!!

 

[thatoneguy]

Guys, I don't want to speak for Ace

For example with Oregon, even if Ace only thinks they are a slight favorite to win, making them his top point play makes sense because the delta he acquires when he is right versus what he loses when he is wrong is enormous.

Delta?

And why speak for him if you don't want to?

 

[BlackRaspChip]

You can't look at the Delta in this regard as there are 34 independent simulations/occurances (or "bowl games"). ACE is not playing his 34 Oregon against someone with a 9 Oklahoma State. He is playing his 34 Oregon against someone with 34 USF, 34 Alabama or 34 Missouri. You must look at the picks as numbers, ordering them that way, rather than teams. It does not matter if he gains his 34 on the most popular, heavy favorite, or the biggest of underdogs. He gains his 34 regardless. What matters is whether the other players win or lose their 34, 33, 32 etc., not on what game it is won/lost on.