Bowl Game Trends from Last Year

[ElIguana]

Nothing scientific, just #s I wrote down after last year's bowl season. Of the 28 major bowl games played:

Favorites won 14
Dogs won 13
1 push

I don't know about year to year, but last year there was no clearcut advantage for dogs or faves.

11 games went OVER the total
16 games went UNDER the total
1 push

It makes sense that more games will go under as betting public (many of which don't bet during the regular season) pushes totals up because overs are "fun" to bet, especially if you are a novice and can't pick a side.

I'm sure many other cappers have better numbers and trends, these are just my #s from last year. I hope they help someone. GL

 

[Marco]

"favorites won 14....dogs won 13...."

I'm just curious to know what the takeback would have been betting all the dogs on the moneyline....

I'm guessing there were a few large favorites that moneylines were not offered on that could have been figured out of that 28 game total?

 

[Highdaddy]

im not sure if he meant the dogs won outright or just covered

 

[ElIguana]

Sorry I wasn't more clear, guys--13 dogs COVERED the spread.

BUT, of those 13 covering dogs, 9 won outright (getting +1.5, 2, 3, 3, 3.5, 5, 6.5, 7, 9.5 points).

Moneyline sure paid on these 9, but it would have been pretty tough to pick the 9 outright underdog winners out of 27 bowl games! Tough for me, anyway. GL

 

[jwunderdog]

Last year was a down year for ML dogs. Depending on your line, you would have lost between 3-6 units betting every ML dog. The year before it was very profitable somewhere around 17 units.

 

[ESQAJM]

I remember reading about a system that says play the dogs early in the bowl schedule as the linesmakers are unfamiliar with the weaker teams and put up bad lines. But as the bowl schedule advances and the better teams start playing, the favorites cover more often.

Would this have worked last year?
ESQAJM

 

[ElIguana]

This makes sense, as linesmakers and public would be more informed on the marquee matchups. However, I didn't see any clear-cut pattern last year of dogs or favorites covering earlier/later in the bowl season.

 

[johnskelington]

this is good info man......i actually prefer #'s and systems with out a lot of scientific computer crap to confuse me. Keep it simple and don't overthink it.

 

[ElIguana]

Thanks J.S. I know there are many others here in the forum with a lot more insight and analysis than I have.....maybe they will weigh in and help us out.

 

[tendog]

last year betting the favs before new years would have been 11-7 and 5-5 after newyears. so betting dogs blindly before new years day would have been costly. this violates the general trend of many many years of dogs covering early and favs covering late. my numbers are slightly different than iquanas because of small line variances. if i were a betting man i would bet that the dogs will bark again this year but who knows in this game i do have a fairly accurate tally on dog/fav numbers for past bowl seasons so if anyone has a specific question i will try to answer it i feel that dogs cover more early games because of motivation as opposed to weak lines at this point in the season good luck!

 

[ElIguana]

Good info, Tendog. Thanks for sharing.

 

[johnskelington]

Looking at the #'s this games a pass for me. Too many other later games I like. For some reason tho I keep thinking No-Texas kills everybody in their own conference every year and then smacks down whatever Conference USA also ran they play in a bowl. Anyone Know NT's record in bowl games the past few years. I'm thinking it's not bad.


GL & thanks