Yesterday: 3-2/YTD: 76-77, -5.17
December 1st
Giants +7.5 (-120), 1*
Tough loss with Denver. They had several chances to win and cover in OT. That defensive pass interference was really the killer. No need to go through the guy’s back to knock that ball away. Anyway, it looks like now is the time to bet the Giants if you want 7.5. The Patriots center was added to the injury report with an illness. I would like to think he will play, but they could be down three starters on the line. Even if it’s just the left side of the line, that’s a tough task against the Giants pass rushers. I expect this to be a competitive game and I think the Giants are live. This is a tough spot for the Patriots. They have their bye coming up, which means this is their 13th straight game. Injuries are piling up on the offensive and defensive lines. They are dying to get to the bye week and have some extra rest before they face Buffalo. I think this game could get very sweaty for them tonight, similar to the Bengals game last week. GL
December 1st
Giants +7.5 (-120), 1*
Tough loss with Denver. They had several chances to win and cover in OT. That defensive pass interference was really the killer. No need to go through the guy’s back to knock that ball away. Anyway, it looks like now is the time to bet the Giants if you want 7.5. The Patriots center was added to the injury report with an illness. I would like to think he will play, but they could be down three starters on the line. Even if it’s just the left side of the line, that’s a tough task against the Giants pass rushers. I expect this to be a competitive game and I think the Giants are live. This is a tough spot for the Patriots. They have their bye coming up, which means this is their 13th straight game. Injuries are piling up on the offensive and defensive lines. They are dying to get to the bye week and have some extra rest before they face Buffalo. I think this game could get very sweaty for them tonight, similar to the Bengals game last week. GL
Theo Johnson over 35.5 yards (-110), 1*
TreVeyon Henderson over 66.5 rush yards (-110), 1*
I think the Patriots are going to try and win similarly to how Buffalo did it yesterday. Bills were missing both tackles, so they ran the ball with Cook. New England will try and run the ball with Henderson and Stevenson more then usual, limiting the risk of having multiple guys in pass protection who haven’t started a game this season. On the flip side, the Patriots weakness is defending the pass in the middle of the field. You can get open on their linebackers in pass coverage, as well as their safeties. I think Johnson will be a major security blanket for Dart.
I am going to have all three Patriots running backs to score a TD. Henderson, Stevenson and Jennings. Small bets as always on the TD scorers.
TreVeyon Henderson over 66.5 rush yards (-110), 1*
I think the Patriots are going to try and win similarly to how Buffalo did it yesterday. Bills were missing both tackles, so they ran the ball with Cook. New England will try and run the ball with Henderson and Stevenson more then usual, limiting the risk of having multiple guys in pass protection who haven’t started a game this season. On the flip side, the Patriots weakness is defending the pass in the middle of the field. You can get open on their linebackers in pass coverage, as well as their safeties. I think Johnson will be a major security blanket for Dart.
I am going to have all three Patriots running backs to score a TD. Henderson, Stevenson and Jennings. Small bets as always on the TD scorers.
December 4th
Cowboys +3.5 (-115), 2*
Cowboys ML (+150), 1*
I don’t understand this spread. I think this game should be Detroit -1 or -1.5. If St. Brown plays, which I would be surprised by, he’s going to be compromised. No Laporta. No Raymond. Offensive line banged up. This seems like two teams going in opposite directions. Lions are 3-4 in their last seven. One of those wins was the comeback in OT against the Giants. They didn’t really cover themselves in glory that game. The Cowboys offense is better, Dak is better then Goff, Dallas’ offense as a whole is better. The Cowboys defense isn’t great, but it’s not worse then Detroit’s. I’m willing to plant my flag on the Cowboys and bet a combined 3 units on them. I was surprised this line was +3 at the beginning of the week. I almost bet it then, but I wanted some injury clarity. The fact it has gone up a half point is hard for me to understand. I get that if St. Brown plays, he would affect the line. I just don’t think the line should have been at 3 to begin with. I don’t even know if Campbell is the better coach. Give me the Cowboys.
If I have any bets or thoughts on props, I will let you know in a half hour once I have a chance to look through everything. GL
Cowboys +3.5 (-115), 2*
Cowboys ML (+150), 1*
I don’t understand this spread. I think this game should be Detroit -1 or -1.5. If St. Brown plays, which I would be surprised by, he’s going to be compromised. No Laporta. No Raymond. Offensive line banged up. This seems like two teams going in opposite directions. Lions are 3-4 in their last seven. One of those wins was the comeback in OT against the Giants. They didn’t really cover themselves in glory that game. The Cowboys offense is better, Dak is better then Goff, Dallas’ offense as a whole is better. The Cowboys defense isn’t great, but it’s not worse then Detroit’s. I’m willing to plant my flag on the Cowboys and bet a combined 3 units on them. I was surprised this line was +3 at the beginning of the week. I almost bet it then, but I wanted some injury clarity. The fact it has gone up a half point is hard for me to understand. I get that if St. Brown plays, he would affect the line. I just don’t think the line should have been at 3 to begin with. I don’t even know if Campbell is the better coach. Give me the Cowboys.
If I have any bets or thoughts on props, I will let you know in a half hour once I have a chance to look through everything. GL
I don’t mind the under honestly. I think that’s a smart bet now that Brown is in. I can’t imagine he is too impactful tonight. I could see Detroit wanting to be run heavy in this game. Also, Campbell will go for it constantly on fourth down. If Dallas gets a couple stops, that’s points off the board.
Best of luck Indy!
I like Pickens and Lamb to go over their yardage props tonight. If I had to pick one, it would be Pickens. I also think there is value on Teslaa anytime TD now that St. Brown is playing. I wasn’t interested at +160. At +425, I’m much more interested. Like I said, I don’t think ASB is going to be much of a factor. He will catch a few balls, but I think he will be a decoy on some of these plays. The Lions need someone with size to throw to in the red zone without LaPorta. Teslaa could be that guy.
Today: 0-2/YTD: 77-81, -9.77
My apologies, just didn’t have the right read on the game. It happens, I’ll bounce back this weekend. If you tailed my prop thoughts, that went much better. Teslaa got the TD score at +425 which helped and Lamb went over his total before leaving the game. Pickens was lousy tonight for whatever reason. Five catches for 37 yards is pretty underwhelming. Ferguson wasn’t very good tonight either. Their defense and kick coverage cost them the game. I was just surprised with the lack of contributions from Pickens and the mistakes from Ferguson. Back on Sunday.
My apologies, just didn’t have the right read on the game. It happens, I’ll bounce back this weekend. If you tailed my prop thoughts, that went much better. Teslaa got the TD score at +425 which helped and Lamb went over his total before leaving the game. Pickens was lousy tonight for whatever reason. Five catches for 37 yards is pretty underwhelming. Ferguson wasn’t very good tonight either. Their defense and kick coverage cost them the game. I was just surprised with the lack of contributions from Pickens and the mistakes from Ferguson. Back on Sunday.
December 7th
Six Point Teaser: Jets +8.5 & Jaguars +8.5 (-120), 1*
Saints +8.5 (-110), 1*
I really like that teaser. Almost made it a two unit bet. The Jets have been playing better after the trade deadline with Taylor at qb despite them trading away defensive talent and not having Garrett Wilson. Miami isn’t exactly known for thriving in cold weather. I think the Jets are live to win this game and will happily tease them through multiple key numbers up to 8.5.
As for the other game, I don’t know how you can trust Daniel Jones. He is clearly compromised which hurts Indy. Not only does he not have the mobility to extend plays and pick up chunk yardage by scrambling, but it hurts them in the run game. You don’t have to respect the qb run nearly as much which allows defenses to key on Taylor more easily on zone runs. There isn’t as much concern that Jones is going to keep the ball and take off. I don’t think it’s a surprise that Taylor has been far more ineffective the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been finding ways to win and have not lost at home to the Colts in ten years. No Gardner hurts the Colts as they could use him to help defend Thomas or Meyers. If the Colts get behind in this game, they are in big trouble. This is another divisional game that should be very competitive.
I believe the Saints can be competitive in their divisional game as well. Tampa has been underwhelming for at least a month. Evans isn’t ready to come back yet. When he returns next week, I expect their offense to hit their stride again. That’s when Egbuka was at his best. If this number was 7, I would pass. At more then a TD, I have seen enough from the Saints to get involved, even without Kamara. Shough isn’t elite by any means, but he has been fine. I’m not squirming when he is under center like I am watching Cam Ward or JJ McCarthy. The Saints got down big last week and showed fight against Miami. I’m not worried about them quitting in this game or down the stretch.
I will probably have 1-2 adds for the early games. GL
Six Point Teaser: Jets +8.5 & Jaguars +8.5 (-120), 1*
Saints +8.5 (-110), 1*
I really like that teaser. Almost made it a two unit bet. The Jets have been playing better after the trade deadline with Taylor at qb despite them trading away defensive talent and not having Garrett Wilson. Miami isn’t exactly known for thriving in cold weather. I think the Jets are live to win this game and will happily tease them through multiple key numbers up to 8.5.
As for the other game, I don’t know how you can trust Daniel Jones. He is clearly compromised which hurts Indy. Not only does he not have the mobility to extend plays and pick up chunk yardage by scrambling, but it hurts them in the run game. You don’t have to respect the qb run nearly as much which allows defenses to key on Taylor more easily on zone runs. There isn’t as much concern that Jones is going to keep the ball and take off. I don’t think it’s a surprise that Taylor has been far more ineffective the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been finding ways to win and have not lost at home to the Colts in ten years. No Gardner hurts the Colts as they could use him to help defend Thomas or Meyers. If the Colts get behind in this game, they are in big trouble. This is another divisional game that should be very competitive.
I believe the Saints can be competitive in their divisional game as well. Tampa has been underwhelming for at least a month. Evans isn’t ready to come back yet. When he returns next week, I expect their offense to hit their stride again. That’s when Egbuka was at his best. If this number was 7, I would pass. At more then a TD, I have seen enough from the Saints to get involved, even without Kamara. Shough isn’t elite by any means, but he has been fine. I’m not squirming when he is under center like I am watching Cam Ward or JJ McCarthy. The Saints got down big last week and showed fight against Miami. I’m not worried about them quitting in this game or down the stretch.
I will probably have 1-2 adds for the early games. GL
