Got off on the right foot last night with a winner on S. Mississippi. Hopefully I can keep it going tonight.
Home team in caps.
Boise State -8.5 FRESNO STATE
Just like last night's game between TCU-S. Miss., this game is for first place in the WAC. It doesn't do much good to compare these two team's overall stats because Fresno State has played a much tougher schedule by playing the likes of Tennessee and Oklahoma, both on the road. I think we'll see a better picture by looking at the conference stats. For the year (conference only), Boise State has been terrible trying to rush the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.6 ypr. For them, that's unfortunate because it appears that is the one way to attack Fresno, who allows 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Those numbers might be a little skewed, as Fresno allowed Rice (a run oriented team) to gain 392 yards at 6.3 ypr. They also allowed Hawaii (a pass oriented team who mixes in the run quite well) to gain only 145 yards rushing but it was at 7.3 ypr. So, even if the numbers are what they are, Boise doesn't appear to be able to take advantage of their weakness, and I'm not quite sure they are as bad as they might seem. For Boise, what they do well is throw the ball, averaging 10.0 yps against 8.3 yps, but they'll be up against it tonight against a Fresno pass defense, which has allowed just 5.2 yps against 7.2 yps in conference play this year. Fresno has played two pass oriented teams this year, L. Tech and they allowed them 5.0 yps (L. Tech averages 7.7 yps) and they allowed Hawaii 6.3 yps (Hawaii averages 7.1 yps). They also allowed San Jose, who is above average throwing the ball in conference play, to throw for 4.7 yps (SJ averages 7.3 yps). So they can definitely step up and stop what Boise does best. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's offense, as a whole, is below average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against 6.0 yppl, but they can run the ball well, gaining 5.2 ypr against 4.8 ypr. Boise defends the run very well, allowing just 2.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The Fresno passing offense and the Boise passing defense are below average and above average respectably. This game comes down to both team's offensive strengths going against both team's defensive strengths. Both teams play great defense, while the Boise offense is much better, but it will be equalized by Boise playing in a tough environment. As good as Boise's rush defense has been, they have played only one team on the road this year that can rush the ball, and that was L. Tech, who they allowed to rush for a 103 yards at 7.3 ypr. In that game, they also allowed L. Tech to throw for 8.0 yps. L. Tech doesn't have the defense Fresno has and, of course, Fresno doesn't have the offense L. Tech has, but it shows that Boise is susceptible to a good team on the road. Boise has won seven straight games and is 9-1 but here we go again. Who have they played? Yes, they played at Oregon State and played them tough, losing by only two points but Fresno also beat that same Oregon State team by two points in Fresno. Boise has played four games on the road this year and only two of them were against competitive teams. They lost to Oregon State by two and beat L. Tech by six points. Fresno beat L. Tech in Fresno by ten and I had L. Tech in that game, but Fresno ran the ball down their throat in the second half and the game was lucky to be that close. Meanwhile, Fresno hasn't lost at home yet this year, beating the likes of Oregon State. Boise qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 43-18-1 playing against Boise in this game. Fresno also qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 24-3-1, including 3-0 this year. Boise also qualifies in a negative situation, which actually plays against very good teams playing on the road late in the season. That situation is a 42-16-3 play against situation and is 3-1 playing against these teams this year. And Fresno qualifies in the same revenge situation that S. Miss. qualified in last night. That situation is now 158-88-4 and 9-3 this year after last nights win. Season long numbers favor Boise by eight points here before accounting for all the great situations and by about seven points in just conference games before the other situations. The game, between two pretty good defensive teams, will probably also be lower scoring than 'they' think. FRESNO STATE 24 BOISE STATE 23
YTD 34-37-2 -16.50%
3% FRESNO STATE +8.5
Home team in caps.
Boise State -8.5 FRESNO STATE
Just like last night's game between TCU-S. Miss., this game is for first place in the WAC. It doesn't do much good to compare these two team's overall stats because Fresno State has played a much tougher schedule by playing the likes of Tennessee and Oklahoma, both on the road. I think we'll see a better picture by looking at the conference stats. For the year (conference only), Boise State has been terrible trying to rush the ball, averaging just 4.0 ypr against teams allowing 4.6 ypr. For them, that's unfortunate because it appears that is the one way to attack Fresno, who allows 4.9 ypr against 4.4 ypr. Those numbers might be a little skewed, as Fresno allowed Rice (a run oriented team) to gain 392 yards at 6.3 ypr. They also allowed Hawaii (a pass oriented team who mixes in the run quite well) to gain only 145 yards rushing but it was at 7.3 ypr. So, even if the numbers are what they are, Boise doesn't appear to be able to take advantage of their weakness, and I'm not quite sure they are as bad as they might seem. For Boise, what they do well is throw the ball, averaging 10.0 yps against 8.3 yps, but they'll be up against it tonight against a Fresno pass defense, which has allowed just 5.2 yps against 7.2 yps in conference play this year. Fresno has played two pass oriented teams this year, L. Tech and they allowed them 5.0 yps (L. Tech averages 7.7 yps) and they allowed Hawaii 6.3 yps (Hawaii averages 7.1 yps). They also allowed San Jose, who is above average throwing the ball in conference play, to throw for 4.7 yps (SJ averages 7.3 yps). So they can definitely step up and stop what Boise does best. On the other side of the ball, Fresno's offense, as a whole, is below average, gaining just 5.2 yppl against 6.0 yppl, but they can run the ball well, gaining 5.2 ypr against 4.8 ypr. Boise defends the run very well, allowing just 2.9 ypr against 4.3 ypr. The Fresno passing offense and the Boise passing defense are below average and above average respectably. This game comes down to both team's offensive strengths going against both team's defensive strengths. Both teams play great defense, while the Boise offense is much better, but it will be equalized by Boise playing in a tough environment. As good as Boise's rush defense has been, they have played only one team on the road this year that can rush the ball, and that was L. Tech, who they allowed to rush for a 103 yards at 7.3 ypr. In that game, they also allowed L. Tech to throw for 8.0 yps. L. Tech doesn't have the defense Fresno has and, of course, Fresno doesn't have the offense L. Tech has, but it shows that Boise is susceptible to a good team on the road. Boise has won seven straight games and is 9-1 but here we go again. Who have they played? Yes, they played at Oregon State and played them tough, losing by only two points but Fresno also beat that same Oregon State team by two points in Fresno. Boise has played four games on the road this year and only two of them were against competitive teams. They lost to Oregon State by two and beat L. Tech by six points. Fresno beat L. Tech in Fresno by ten and I had L. Tech in that game, but Fresno ran the ball down their throat in the second half and the game was lucky to be that close. Meanwhile, Fresno hasn't lost at home yet this year, beating the likes of Oregon State. Boise qualifies in a letdown situation, which is 43-18-1 playing against Boise in this game. Fresno also qualifies in a home momentum situation, which is 24-3-1, including 3-0 this year. Boise also qualifies in a negative situation, which actually plays against very good teams playing on the road late in the season. That situation is a 42-16-3 play against situation and is 3-1 playing against these teams this year. And Fresno qualifies in the same revenge situation that S. Miss. qualified in last night. That situation is now 158-88-4 and 9-3 this year after last nights win. Season long numbers favor Boise by eight points here before accounting for all the great situations and by about seven points in just conference games before the other situations. The game, between two pretty good defensive teams, will probably also be lower scoring than 'they' think. FRESNO STATE 24 BOISE STATE 23
YTD 34-37-2 -16.50%
3% FRESNO STATE +8.5
