Great question, Hitman. The obvious answer is that it would likely depend on the units wagered to determine whether this strategy would pay off over time.
Here's my opinion, and it's just that, an opinion--I don't have any data to back me up. I don't always bet on dogs and take the points, but as a rule of thumb I rarely bet against a dawg in his own backyard, especially if the spread is 4 or more. Actually, the Texans and the Cardinals covered at home for me sevaral times this season, good value. I cleaned house when Arizona beat Minnesota outright on 4th & 19 in a meaningless game (for Arizona, other than pride) that spanked the Vikes right out of the playoffs--had to love it!
Maybe some of the big gun RX posters will have solid #s on this. I would be interested to see them. Again, I don't always take the dog at home, but I rarely bet against him. GL Hitman. - El Iguana
Here's my opinion, and it's just that, an opinion--I don't have any data to back me up. I don't always bet on dogs and take the points, but as a rule of thumb I rarely bet against a dawg in his own backyard, especially if the spread is 4 or more. Actually, the Texans and the Cardinals covered at home for me sevaral times this season, good value. I cleaned house when Arizona beat Minnesota outright on 4th & 19 in a meaningless game (for Arizona, other than pride) that spanked the Vikes right out of the playoffs--had to love it!
Maybe some of the big gun RX posters will have solid #s on this. I would be interested to see them. Again, I don't always take the dog at home, but I rarely bet against him. GL Hitman. - El Iguana
Pretty rare to see a home dog though that is the same rating as their opponent. It changes all the time, but usually the best home dogs are getting a lot of points. They usually put up their best efforts there playing a quality team and their opponents often take the game off. A small home dog doesn't get much of an edge on these accounts.
I think the key would be though to cut out the teams that are just plain terrible during the last few weeks of the season, they are playing out the string and the line gets high because everyone knows it. While they occasionally cover, I think a lot of these miserable teams last few weeks usually dog it and can't wait for the season to end.
I think the key would be though to cut out the teams that are just plain terrible during the last few weeks of the season, they are playing out the string and the line gets high because everyone knows it. While they occasionally cover, I think a lot of these miserable teams last few weeks usually dog it and can't wait for the season to end.
Actually, betting blindly on all home dogs would make you a profit. It's not something I would advocate and would have only made you about 0.9 units of profit per season over the last 21 seasons, but it would have been profitable.
Year Wins Losses Ties Pct
1983 33 31 1 0.516
1984 34 42 2 0.447
1985 41 35 2 0.539
1986 38 36 2 0.514
1987 37 32 0 0.536
1988 30 28 1 0.517
1989 35 35 1 0.500
1990 32 32 3 0.500
1991 41 35 5 0.539
1992 43 38 0 0.531
1993 37 32 4 0.536
1994 30 28 4 0.517
1995 40 37 1 0.519
1996 39 25 0 0.609
1997 35 32 2 0.522
1998 39 31 6 0.557
1999 45 33 7 0.577
2000 36 37 1 0.493
2001 43 37 6 0.538
2002 51 36 3 0.586
2003 36 34 4 0.514
Totals 795 706 55 0.530
And, actually, betting home dogs the last 3-4 weeks is much more profitable. GL guys.
Week Wins Losses Ties Pct
1 57 47 4 0.548
2 43 44 4 0.494
3 36 46 2 0.439
4 37 40 5 0.481
5 48 39 1 0.552
6 45 47 5 0.489
7 42 32 2 0.568
8 51 44 4 0.537
9 43 41 4 0.512
10 49 42 2 0.538
11 50 44 6 0.532
12 46 42 3 0.523
13 63 47 1 0.573
14 39 48 2 0.448
15 50 35 4 0.588
16 50 38 5 0.568
17 42 28 1 0.600
18 4 2 0 0.667
Totals 795 706 55 0.530
Week 15-18 146 103 10 0.586
[This message was edited by Sixth Sense on July 14, 2004 at 11:13 AM.]
Year Wins Losses Ties Pct
1983 33 31 1 0.516
1984 34 42 2 0.447
1985 41 35 2 0.539
1986 38 36 2 0.514
1987 37 32 0 0.536
1988 30 28 1 0.517
1989 35 35 1 0.500
1990 32 32 3 0.500
1991 41 35 5 0.539
1992 43 38 0 0.531
1993 37 32 4 0.536
1994 30 28 4 0.517
1995 40 37 1 0.519
1996 39 25 0 0.609
1997 35 32 2 0.522
1998 39 31 6 0.557
1999 45 33 7 0.577
2000 36 37 1 0.493
2001 43 37 6 0.538
2002 51 36 3 0.586
2003 36 34 4 0.514
Totals 795 706 55 0.530
And, actually, betting home dogs the last 3-4 weeks is much more profitable. GL guys.
Week Wins Losses Ties Pct
1 57 47 4 0.548
2 43 44 4 0.494
3 36 46 2 0.439
4 37 40 5 0.481
5 48 39 1 0.552
6 45 47 5 0.489
7 42 32 2 0.568
8 51 44 4 0.537
9 43 41 4 0.512
10 49 42 2 0.538
11 50 44 6 0.532
12 46 42 3 0.523
13 63 47 1 0.573
14 39 48 2 0.448
15 50 35 4 0.588
16 50 38 5 0.568
17 42 28 1 0.600
18 4 2 0 0.667
Totals 795 706 55 0.530
Week 15-18 146 103 10 0.586
[This message was edited by Sixth Sense on July 14, 2004 at 11:13 AM.]
Great work, Apollo & 6th!
bblight & WildBill, I agree that cappers should avoid "blind" bets. However, one thing about the NFL (as opposed to college) is that even when the players have cashed in the season mentally, many pros are playing for their JOBS.
It's different from college where it is all based on pride and emotion, and graduating seniors (or those leaving for the NFL)really have no tomorrow in college ball and give up emotionally. The pros know that regardless of how the team is doing, they are playing for another year of salary, especially the blue collar guys who didn't get a $9 million signing bonus.
But another thing I've learned along the way is that it usually doesn't pay to put your $$ on a time-tested LOSER, no matter how many points they are getting.
I guess the long and short of it is to look for value with home dogs, but choose your dogs carefully.
Great thread, Hitman!
bblight & WildBill, I agree that cappers should avoid "blind" bets. However, one thing about the NFL (as opposed to college) is that even when the players have cashed in the season mentally, many pros are playing for their JOBS.
It's different from college where it is all based on pride and emotion, and graduating seniors (or those leaving for the NFL)really have no tomorrow in college ball and give up emotionally. The pros know that regardless of how the team is doing, they are playing for another year of salary, especially the blue collar guys who didn't get a $9 million signing bonus.
But another thing I've learned along the way is that it usually doesn't pay to put your $$ on a time-tested LOSER, no matter how many points they are getting.
I guess the long and short of it is to look for value with home dogs, but choose your dogs carefully.
Great thread, Hitman!
Sixth Sense and Apollo:
Thanks for the info. I had heard that if you had blindly bet home dogs for the last 10 years that that would net you a profit. Now I gotta belive with the reduced and rogue lines that blindly playing home dogs wouldn't be a bad way to go for a non sharpie.
I think I will give it a try this year
Hitman
Thanks for the info. I had heard that if you had blindly bet home dogs for the last 10 years that that would net you a profit. Now I gotta belive with the reduced and rogue lines that blindly playing home dogs wouldn't be a bad way to go for a non sharpie.
I think I will give it a try this year
Hitman
