BIZ Kentucky Oaks 2019 AND HTH Matchups

[Biz]

Head To Head Oaks (Bookmaker)

Chocolate Kisses +101 vs Out for a Spin
Lady Apple -131 vs Out for a Spin
Liora +129 vs Out for a Spin
Liora -112 vs Flor de la Mar
Bellafina -196 vs Jaywalk
Bellafina -168 vs Champagne Anyone
Restless Rider -121 vs Jaywalk (BEST BET 2U)
Restless Rider -128 vs Champagne Anyone (BEST BET 2U)
Restless Rider -177 vs Serengeti Empress

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#14 Restless Rider should hit the board at a minimum, and has a very good chance to win the race. She is drawn outside and needs to work out a trip, but has a beautiful sheet and I would be shocked if she doesn't run her race....which puts her squarely in this at around 5/1.

#4 Bellafina is a must use as the favorite, she's the fastest filly in the race and even if she backs up a bit figures wise she will still be tough.

#7 Jaywalk has not improved from her 2yo figures, a huge negative for me. She can be tossed confidently and we will try and get her out of the exotics. #1 Out for a Spin another I'm tossing from the top 3/4, extremely mediocre until that last race which was really good. I'm playing her to be unable to repeat that last effort.

There are several horses that are prices that can sneak into contention, they are:
#2 Chocolate Kisses 20/1ML: Her race two back is very competitive, with the last race bounce concerning. If she can get back to her good one she can hit the board at 20/1 ML

#3 Lady Apple 20/1ML: While her best isn't as fast as CK, she has a nice forging pattern that would suggest another solid effort is forthcoming today. She's borderline, but again at 20/1 ML has to be used

#6 Positive Spirit 30/1ML: Ran a huge race in her final 2yo race last year that would make her a major player today. Her first race as a 3yo she had gate issues and ran terribly, next race had slight trouble at the break and also took a bump late. That last number was just ok, but she has won over the CD strip.

#8 Motion Emotion 15/1ML: She is a notch below the best, but she has run well in each start this year and can certainly hit the board.

#9 Liora 20/1ML: This filly really intrigues me. She has a nice 2YO foundation, closing the year with a couple solid efforts over this track. Her first this year she was off poorly and hit the gate, resulting in a poor effort, an effort I can dismiss. Her next race was tremendous and a new top, you want to see top class 3YOs exceed their best 2YO numbers early in their 3YO campaign. Last race a slight regression, which isn't unusual, and she may be ready to get right back to her top. She can absolutely hit the board and has an outside chance for the upset win.

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$100 WIN: #14 Restless Rider
$20 WIN: #9 Liora

$10 Exacta Box: 14/4,9 = $40
$5 Exacta Box: 14/2,3,6,8 = $40
$2 Exacta Box: 9/2,3,4,6,8 = $20

$1 Trifecta
4,14/4,14/2,3,6,8,9 = $10
4,14/2,3,6,8,9/4,14 = $10
2,3,6,8,9/4,14/4,14 = $10
4,14/2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9 = $40

$.50 Trifecta
2,3,6,8,9/4,14/2,3,6,8,9 = $20
2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9/4,14 = $20

$1 Superfecta
4,14/4,14/2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9 = $40
4,14/2,3,6,8,9/4,14/2,3,6,8,9 = $40
4,14/2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9/4,14 = $40

$10 OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE
4,14/1,2,5 = $60

$5 OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE
9/1,2,5 = 15

$2 OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE
4,9,14/8 = $6

WAGER AMOUNTS
WIN: $120
EXACTAS: $100
TRIFECTAS: $110
SUPERFECTAS: $120
OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE $81

Total Wagered $531

 

[Biz]

Adding:

$1 Superfecta
6,9/4,14/4,14/2,3,6,8,9 = $16
6,9/2,3,6,8,9/4,14/4,14 = $16
6,9/2,3,6,8,9/2,3,6,8,9/4,14 = $48

$1 Exacta Box
6/2,3,4,8,9,14 = $12

WAGER AMOUNTS
WIN: $120
EXACTAS: $112
TRIFECTAS: $110
SUPERFECTAS: $200
OAKS/DERBY DOUBLE $81

Total Wagered $623

 

[Jstack34]

I put Liora in my exacta because of you, appreciate the input

 

[Biz]

Track was playing to speed all day on the main track. I played the exacta late after talking with a buddy of mine. He put me onto Serengeti Empress.

Liora ran a great race, I really thought she would go by but it was really difficult to pass horses today.

Restless Rider broke slow and right out of the gate I knew she had no shot.

2 of the top 3 finishers were listed as live longshots, hopefully some others were helped with the write up.

Glad I helped you cash a very nice exacta, around $877 for 2 bucks

On to tomorrow

 

[Pulledclear]

Past post = No playSo-Sorry-935&

 

[mickj]

hopefully some others were helped with the write up. I played Liora to show, great price, thanks.

 

[Biz]

Past post = No playSo-Sorry-935&

Hey Dickhead.

I cashed the exacta, my ADW didn't cancel the ticket because I didn't include it in the post.

You're the biggest fucking clown on this forum, posting 4 random horses in no particular order, then bragging when you hit an exacta.

I've had 2 people tell me my write up helped them cash, the next person that says you helped them will be the first one.

Stay the fuck out of my threads.

 

[Pulledclear]

Past posting is STRONGLY frowned on. People have been banned for that.So-Sorry-935& Name calling??? Really. WOW

 

[Biz]

If the shoe fits.

Banned for "past posting". Really??

I CLEARLY stated that the 37-1 #9 was a solid longshot. I also CLEARLY stated that the winner was given to me by a buddy.

Shouldn't you be throwing darts at a wall, getting your picks ready for tomorrow??

Its idiots like you that keep sharp people like me from posting. Reading a comment from some doofus making up forum rules, after I give a writeup that keyed a 37-1 shot that ran 2nd...with several people saying they cashed because of the writeup.

 

[Pulledclear]

Yikes :scared1:

 

[Haystacks]

I believe the term is red boarding. Past posting is betting after the race has already started, or been run, like in the Sting.
Good info on Liora.

 

[Biz]

I believe the term is red boarding. Past posting is betting after the race has already started, or been run, like in the Sting.
Good info on Liora.

You're correct. Clown can't even get that right.

Hope you cashed

 

[Pulledclear]

Late betting or past posting is making a bet after the time when no more bets are to be taken. It is considered cheating; information may have become available, including the outcome of the event, that was not available to those making earlier bets.

 

[Biz]

Give it a rest, you really have no idea of how dumb you sound right now.

Gotta love this place when you give out a 37/1 shot and one clown wants to complain about it.

I'm not dealing with this nonsense today, if you want my thoughts on a race just DM me. Not wasting amy more time or energy on ths idiot.

 

[Pulledclear]

Don't past post. Then you won't be so frustrated.cheersgif

 

[Biz]

LOL frustrated??

You're funny little guy.

Now excuse me while I cash this ticket on Mia Mischief at 11/1

 

[Skeeter123]

Biz - Just ignore that idiot. Don’t even respond to his posts (it’s pointless).

Who you like in the Derby today?

GL and thanks for the winners!

:toast:

 

[Biz]

Thx Skeeter, I'll start a new thread

 

[Pulledclear]

LOL frustrated??

You're funny little guy.

Now excuse me while I cash this ticket on Mia Mischief at 11/1

ANOTHER past post. What a shocker. Next time please post your prediction BEFORE the race is over. Thanks!

 

[Pulledclear]

If the shoe fits.

Banned for "past posting". Really??

I CLEARLY stated that the 37-1 #9 was a solid longshot. I also CLEARLY stated that the winner was given to me by a buddy.



Shouldn't you be throwing darts at a wall, getting your picks ready for tomorrow??

Its idiots like you that keep sharp people like me from posting. Reading a comment from some doofus making up forum rules, after I give a writeup that keyed a 37-1 shot that ran 2nd...with several people saying they cashed because of the writeup.

You made no mention of Serengeti Empress prior to the end of the race.