Someone asked why not keep all plays in one thread, so that's what I'm going to do. Here are my previous plays and record.
OVERALL: 7-7
Sides: 3-5
Totals: 4-2
02-10-2014, 01:39 PM
Denver +11: They fit 2 angles, and also step up against the better teams in the league. DD road dogs coming off a loss of 15+ are 87-51 last 5 years, 11-9 this year. Pacers have hit a flat spot after storming through the first half. Taking the generous points.
Boston -1: Solid angle playing against a Home Dog.
Houston -5: Fading a home dog playing their 5th game in 7 days, with a nice road fav ref tossed in too
Golden State -15
Bos/Mil UNDER 191: Also fits an angle, playing the under with 2 bad teams with a home dog.
SA/Det OVER 205
Hou/Minn OVER 208
Win: Boston, Houston, Golden St, Bos/Mil Under, SA/Det Over
Loss: Denver, Hou/Minn Over
02-11-2014, 04:13 AM
Sacramento +1.5: Power Rating play and a solid angle play. The angle is 2-5 in the past 7 situations, but its a very solid one overall. 60% L10 yrs and extremely potent the last 4 years. We are playing on a road dog, last a road dog, and they haven't covered their last 2-3 games. Its even better against a losing team. Time for it to get a win.
Phoenix +4.5: On the one hand Phoenix is a solid Power rating play getting 4.5 points. OTOH, Miami fits an angle that hits at 59% the last 7 years and 63% (15-9) this year. Usually, I defer to the power ratings when I get a cross. The angle plays on Road favorites that lost their last as a Road Fav, and they have a 1-2 Gm losing streak. Filtering it further, these favs do much better against weaker teams, and today we have an opponent with a 60% record. Going with the home dog here.
LA Lakers -1: The last power rating play on the card. Laying the short number with the Lakers, as Utah comes off a huge home win vs Miami. Bad teams off huge wins often suffer a let down, especially if they have to travel. Lakers showed some heart vs Chicago after being down big. They play hard for their coach, and should get a win tonight.
Atlanta +2: Teams coming home off long road trips (at least 5 games) tend to struggle once they get home to their comfy home court. I don't have the specific stats, but I've seen it time and again. Hawks off a grinding home loss to Memphis, Bulls should be without Boozer. Look for Hawks to bounce back after that putrid performance.
Totals:
Miami/Phoenix UNDER 210:Total up to 210, and these are Over teams. So why the Under play?? 2 reasons. The ratings I've been using has this matchup as an under play. It also fits a profitable angle that is 60.5% over the last 8 years, and 63% his year. We are playing the Under between 2 winning teams (>50%), the total is >200, and the home team is a dog. I had the Under on Phx/Chi last week, and suffered a ridiculous beat, so Phoenix owes me one.
Atlanta/Chicago UNDER 188:
Washington/Memphis OVER 182.5:I cringe every time I play a Memphis Over. They are an Under machine. But my ratings say play the Over, so that's what we're gonna do. We also get a ref that is strong to the Over.
PASS:
Dallas/Charlotte OVER 201:Ratings say Over, but we do have an ref assigned tonight thats leans slightly to the Under. . Pass or Play?? A reluctant pass due to the ref assignment.
Win: Miami/Phx Under, Atl/Chi Under
Loss: All sides, Wash/Mem Over
02-12-2014, 01:08 PM
OVERALL: 7-7
Sides: 3-5
Totals: 4-2
02-10-2014, 01:39 PM
Denver +11: They fit 2 angles, and also step up against the better teams in the league. DD road dogs coming off a loss of 15+ are 87-51 last 5 years, 11-9 this year. Pacers have hit a flat spot after storming through the first half. Taking the generous points.
Boston -1: Solid angle playing against a Home Dog.
Houston -5: Fading a home dog playing their 5th game in 7 days, with a nice road fav ref tossed in too
Golden State -15
Bos/Mil UNDER 191: Also fits an angle, playing the under with 2 bad teams with a home dog.
SA/Det OVER 205
Hou/Minn OVER 208
Win: Boston, Houston, Golden St, Bos/Mil Under, SA/Det Over
Loss: Denver, Hou/Minn Over
02-11-2014, 04:13 AM
Sacramento +1.5: Power Rating play and a solid angle play. The angle is 2-5 in the past 7 situations, but its a very solid one overall. 60% L10 yrs and extremely potent the last 4 years. We are playing on a road dog, last a road dog, and they haven't covered their last 2-3 games. Its even better against a losing team. Time for it to get a win.
Phoenix +4.5: On the one hand Phoenix is a solid Power rating play getting 4.5 points. OTOH, Miami fits an angle that hits at 59% the last 7 years and 63% (15-9) this year. Usually, I defer to the power ratings when I get a cross. The angle plays on Road favorites that lost their last as a Road Fav, and they have a 1-2 Gm losing streak. Filtering it further, these favs do much better against weaker teams, and today we have an opponent with a 60% record. Going with the home dog here.
LA Lakers -1: The last power rating play on the card. Laying the short number with the Lakers, as Utah comes off a huge home win vs Miami. Bad teams off huge wins often suffer a let down, especially if they have to travel. Lakers showed some heart vs Chicago after being down big. They play hard for their coach, and should get a win tonight.
Atlanta +2: Teams coming home off long road trips (at least 5 games) tend to struggle once they get home to their comfy home court. I don't have the specific stats, but I've seen it time and again. Hawks off a grinding home loss to Memphis, Bulls should be without Boozer. Look for Hawks to bounce back after that putrid performance.
Totals:
Miami/Phoenix UNDER 210:Total up to 210, and these are Over teams. So why the Under play?? 2 reasons. The ratings I've been using has this matchup as an under play. It also fits a profitable angle that is 60.5% over the last 8 years, and 63% his year. We are playing the Under between 2 winning teams (>50%), the total is >200, and the home team is a dog. I had the Under on Phx/Chi last week, and suffered a ridiculous beat, so Phoenix owes me one.
Atlanta/Chicago UNDER 188:
Washington/Memphis OVER 182.5:I cringe every time I play a Memphis Over. They are an Under machine. But my ratings say play the Over, so that's what we're gonna do. We also get a ref that is strong to the Over.
PASS:
Dallas/Charlotte OVER 201:Ratings say Over, but we do have an ref assigned tonight thats leans slightly to the Under. . Pass or Play?? A reluctant pass due to the ref assignment.
Win: Miami/Phx Under, Atl/Chi Under
Loss: All sides, Wash/Mem Over
02-12-2014, 01:08 PM
Big card today.
Dallas +9
San Antonio -3
Sacramento +6
Cleveland +8
Philadelphia +8
Portland +9
Golden St -1
Totals:
Sac/NY Over 202
Clev/Det Over 209
Char/Brk Over 193
Mem/Orl Under 180
Dal/Ind Under 197
SA/Bos Under 193
NO/Mil Under 195
Phil/Utah Under 202
Mia/GS Under 204
Dallas +9
San Antonio -3
Sacramento +6
Cleveland +8
Philadelphia +8
Portland +9
Golden St -1
Totals:
Sac/NY Over 202
Clev/Det Over 209
Char/Brk Over 193
Mem/Orl Under 180
Dal/Ind Under 197
SA/Bos Under 193
NO/Mil Under 195
Phil/Utah Under 202
Mia/GS Under 204
