Despite their shoddy track record on Iraq analysis, O'Reilly trusts only "my military analysts, people paid by Fox News" for information on Iraq
But those same analysts in whom O'Reilly expressed unwavering trust -- whether for analysis of the current situation in Iraq or a potential military strike against Iran -- made numerous assertions and predictions in the lead-up to the Iraq war that were baseless and in many cases later proved false:
Col. Oliver North
An avid supporter of the Iraq war, North is the host of Fox News' War Stories, an occasional guest host for Sean Hannity on Hannity & Colmes, and a Fox News military analyst. North is a Marine veteran, famous for his leading role in the Iran-Contra affair. He served as an embedded reporter in Iraq for Fox News with the 1st Marine Regiment. During the run-up to the Iraq war, North repeatedly made false or misleading claims that supported Bush administration justifications for invading Iraq. For instance, during the January 9, 2003, edition of Hannity & Colmes, North stated that "there's no doubt that the Iraqi regime is hiding weapons of mass destruction," but United Nations weapons inspector Hans Blix would not find them because failure to find weapons "is part of this man's chemistry." North also "predict[ed]" that "you're going to see democracy work in Baghdad very, very quickly."
North repeatedly claimed, as he did on the January 14, 2003, edition of On the Record with Greta van Susteren, that an "Iraqi resistance" comprised of "all of the parties -- the Shi'a, the Sunni, the various Kurdish factions" would "declare a free, independent provisional government in northern Iraq." According to North, the provisional government would be established on the "20th, 21st, or thereabouts" of January 2003. According to North: "It is going to be big news. It may the kind of thing that pushes Saddam over the brink" and causes him to seek reprisal against the "provisional government."
On the January 20, 2003, edition of On the Record, when the "independent provisional government" had still not been established, North revised his claim, stating that "Iraqis of nine different factions representing the full political spectrum except for the fascist Ba'ath Party" were going to "declare independence, declare a free and independent ... provisional government ... in the next 30 days." North suggested that this provisional government would attempt to overthrow Saddam Hussein and it would be America's responsibility "to help them take their country back." Of course, no such "independent provisional government" materialized before the U.S. invasion.
Additionally, on the February 7, 2003, edition of Hannity & Colmes, North declared that despite France's refusal to endorse the U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution allowing the use of force against Iraq, "what's undoubtedly going to happen is that the French ... are going to come aboard at the last moment." During the same show, North also predicted that since "the regime in Baghdad is so inherently evil ... it's more than likely that Saddam's own people ... are going to take him out." North also claimed he would "be the most astounded person on the planet Earth if day three after this whole thing Saddam Hussein is still alive."
Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney
McInerney is a retired U.S. Air Force officer and founder the consulting firm Government Reform through Technology who has served as a Fox News military analyst since before the Iraq war. McInerney also served as CEO and other executive positions for defense contractor Loral Defense Systems-Eagan.
Prior to the Iraq war, McInerney also made a series of predictions regarding the impending invasion that later proved false . On the December 20, 2002, edition of On the Record, McInerney predicted that, should U.S. forces invade, "I think he's [Saddam] going to use chemical weapons and biological" weapons on the Iraqi people because "he wants the collateral damage on his own people." During the January 3, 2003, edition of On the Record, McInerney declared that "in the final analysis, France and Russia roll in" to assist in the Iraq war "even if it's outside the U.N." He concluded: "There's no question if it's inside the U.N., they'll be there."
McInerney also asserted during the same episode that invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam would actually improve public opinion of America in the Arab world, and predicted that the "jubilation in Mosul, Basra, and Baghdad" after the invasion "will silen[ce] the Arab street." According to McInerney: "There has not been a family in Iraq who has not been hurt by that man [Saddam], and so, once that is opened up, once those weapons of mass destruction that are exposed over there, once all this evil that this man has done, they're going to go dead quiet, as will the critics in the United States."
Further, McInerney claimed on the February 3, 2003, edition of On the Record that the Iraq war would last "at the most one month," but it would "probably [be] a two-week campaign" -- a prediction shared by another Fox News military analyst, Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, who claimed on the January 2, 2003, edition of On the Record that "it's going to be a very quick campaign, within 30 days."
Maj. Gen. Robert H. Scales Jr.
Scales is a retired major general, having served longer than 30 years in the U.S. Army. Scales served as president and CEO of Walden University in 2000 and as president of Capstar Government Services. He is a military analyst for Fox News and National Public Radio.
As with most other Fox News military analysts, Scales supported the invasion of Iraq and made several assertions prior to the war that later proved to be false. For instance on the February 3, 2003, edition of On the Record, Scales claimed that since "this operation is going to go so quickly," and would "be over so fast," the U.S. military wouldn't have to worry about "suicide attack or even a conventional defense, for that matter." Additionally, Scales asserted that "[o]nce the campaign starts," it would last "weeks, certainly not months," and "[t]he only thing that would cause the campaign to last any length of time are the distances that are involved" between Iraqi cities.
Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis
Maginnis is a retired lieutenant colonel who has served as the Pentagon's inspector general and as an adviser to the Defense Department Military Working Group, set up in 1993 by the Department of Defense to address the issue of gays in the miliary. Additionally, Maginnis served as a policy adviser for the conservative Family Research Council. Maginnis has been a Fox News military analyst since at least 2002, during which time he reportedly was a member of Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld's Military Analyst Group.
In the months leading to the Iraq war, Maginnis frequently appeared on Fox News and made various misleading and baseless claims. For example, Maginnis suggested on December 19, 2002, that chemical warfare was going to be a large component of the war and claimed that the Iraqi military was "going to have ... almost booby-trapped use of some chemicals in some built-up areas where civilians are going to be casualties." Maginnis repeated this assertion -- that Iraqi leaders were booby-trapping residential areas with chemical or biological weapons -- on the January 15, 2003, edition of On the Record, stating: "[N]ot only [do] they develop them, they hide them. ... They know exactly where these things are. ... [T]hey are in residential areas, and they probably have some of the things that we've heard about," such as "smallpox material that's been weaponized." On the January 30, 2003, edition of On the Record, Maginnis responded to a Gallup poll indicating that a majority of Americans said "they expected thousands of deaths" from the war, claiming that while "we can't dismiss" the possibility that thousands of deaths would occur, "the reality is that we're not going to see that." On February 3, 2003, he suggested that the reason U.N. weapons inspections turned up empty was "because some of the information somehow got out to the wrong people, and they were able to sanitize the site before the inspectors arrived," perhaps because Iraqis "infiltrated" the inspection teams.
Col. David Hunt
Hunt, according to his Fox News biography, "has over 29 years of military experience including extensive operational experience in Special Operations, Counter Terrorism and Intelligence Operations," where he worked in national intelligence and national security fields.
Hunt, whom O'Reilly has described as "the feistiest guy we have" [The O'Reilly Factor, 3/27/03], repeatedly attempted to link Saddam to terrorism, predicted that the U.N.'s refusal to support U.S. military action in Iraq signaled "the end of the United Nations" [The O'Reilly Factor, 3/7/03], and suggested that Saddam would "torch[] his country in facing the United Nations inspectors" [The Big Story with John Gibson 12/19/02]. Hunt added that the Pentagon's mere assertion of that possibility "is all we need" to invade Iraq. Additionally, Hunt leveled harsh attacks against mainstream newspapers, which he said did not portray a sufficiently positive picture of the initial fighting. On the March 27, 2003, edition of The O'Reilly Factor, Hunt called the reporting by The New York Times and others "treacherous, one step below traitorous ... ecause what they're distorting, heroic action on the part of men and women of the services, to back up their own very stilted point of view." Further, Hunt mocked retired Gen. Wesley Clark's apparent suggestion on CNN that the troops lacked sufficient armored vehicles, a claim that was later proved to be accurate, stating: "Excuse me. There aren't enough armored vehicles? Wah, wah, wah."
Summary: Bill O'Reilly declared, "I can't base my opinion" about the Iraq war "on anything" other than "what my military analysts, people paid by Fox News, say to me." O'Reilly added that he could trust only Fox military analysts because "[t]he newspapers ... all have an agenda" and "only give you a snapshot of the war." However, Fox News' military analysts made numerous wrong predictions and false assertions in the lead-up to the invasion of Iraq.
During the April 14 broadcast of his nationally syndicated radio show, Bill O'Reilly declared: "I can't base my opinion" about the Iraq war "on anything" other than "what my military analysts, people paid by Fox News, say to me." O'Reilly added that he could trust only Fox military analysts because "[t]he newspapers ... all have an agenda" and "only give you a snapshot of the war." Later in the broadcast, O'Reilly reiterated his position, saying, "I have to base my analysis on what our Fox News military analysts, who I think are the best and always been the best, are saying." Further, O'Reilly described as "ridiculous" a caller's efforts to base his view of the war by "reading the Internet and the newspapers and forming a definitive opinion [based] upon what they say."
But those same analysts in whom O'Reilly expressed unwavering trust -- whether for analysis of the current situation in Iraq or a potential military strike against Iran -- made numerous assertions and predictions in the lead-up to the Iraq war that were baseless and in many cases later proved false:
Col. Oliver North
An avid supporter of the Iraq war, North is the host of Fox News' War Stories, an occasional guest host for Sean Hannity on Hannity & Colmes, and a Fox News military analyst. North is a Marine veteran, famous for his leading role in the Iran-Contra affair. He served as an embedded reporter in Iraq for Fox News with the 1st Marine Regiment. During the run-up to the Iraq war, North repeatedly made false or misleading claims that supported Bush administration justifications for invading Iraq. For instance, during the January 9, 2003, edition of Hannity & Colmes, North stated that "there's no doubt that the Iraqi regime is hiding weapons of mass destruction," but United Nations weapons inspector Hans Blix would not find them because failure to find weapons "is part of this man's chemistry." North also "predict[ed]" that "you're going to see democracy work in Baghdad very, very quickly."
North repeatedly claimed, as he did on the January 14, 2003, edition of On the Record with Greta van Susteren, that an "Iraqi resistance" comprised of "all of the parties -- the Shi'a, the Sunni, the various Kurdish factions" would "declare a free, independent provisional government in northern Iraq." According to North, the provisional government would be established on the "20th, 21st, or thereabouts" of January 2003. According to North: "It is going to be big news. It may the kind of thing that pushes Saddam over the brink" and causes him to seek reprisal against the "provisional government."
On the January 20, 2003, edition of On the Record, when the "independent provisional government" had still not been established, North revised his claim, stating that "Iraqis of nine different factions representing the full political spectrum except for the fascist Ba'ath Party" were going to "declare independence, declare a free and independent ... provisional government ... in the next 30 days." North suggested that this provisional government would attempt to overthrow Saddam Hussein and it would be America's responsibility "to help them take their country back." Of course, no such "independent provisional government" materialized before the U.S. invasion.
Additionally, on the February 7, 2003, edition of Hannity & Colmes, North declared that despite France's refusal to endorse the U.S.-sponsored U.N. Security Council resolution allowing the use of force against Iraq, "what's undoubtedly going to happen is that the French ... are going to come aboard at the last moment." During the same show, North also predicted that since "the regime in Baghdad is so inherently evil ... it's more than likely that Saddam's own people ... are going to take him out." North also claimed he would "be the most astounded person on the planet Earth if day three after this whole thing Saddam Hussein is still alive."
Lt. Gen. Thomas McInerney
McInerney is a retired U.S. Air Force officer and founder the consulting firm Government Reform through Technology who has served as a Fox News military analyst since before the Iraq war. McInerney also served as CEO and other executive positions for defense contractor Loral Defense Systems-Eagan.
Prior to the Iraq war, McInerney also made a series of predictions regarding the impending invasion that later proved false . On the December 20, 2002, edition of On the Record, McInerney predicted that, should U.S. forces invade, "I think he's [Saddam] going to use chemical weapons and biological" weapons on the Iraqi people because "he wants the collateral damage on his own people." During the January 3, 2003, edition of On the Record, McInerney declared that "in the final analysis, France and Russia roll in" to assist in the Iraq war "even if it's outside the U.N." He concluded: "There's no question if it's inside the U.N., they'll be there."
McInerney also asserted during the same episode that invading Iraq and overthrowing Saddam would actually improve public opinion of America in the Arab world, and predicted that the "jubilation in Mosul, Basra, and Baghdad" after the invasion "will silen[ce] the Arab street." According to McInerney: "There has not been a family in Iraq who has not been hurt by that man [Saddam], and so, once that is opened up, once those weapons of mass destruction that are exposed over there, once all this evil that this man has done, they're going to go dead quiet, as will the critics in the United States."
Further, McInerney claimed on the February 3, 2003, edition of On the Record that the Iraq war would last "at the most one month," but it would "probably [be] a two-week campaign" -- a prediction shared by another Fox News military analyst, Maj. Gen. Paul Vallely, who claimed on the January 2, 2003, edition of On the Record that "it's going to be a very quick campaign, within 30 days."
Maj. Gen. Robert H. Scales Jr.
Scales is a retired major general, having served longer than 30 years in the U.S. Army. Scales served as president and CEO of Walden University in 2000 and as president of Capstar Government Services. He is a military analyst for Fox News and National Public Radio.
As with most other Fox News military analysts, Scales supported the invasion of Iraq and made several assertions prior to the war that later proved to be false. For instance on the February 3, 2003, edition of On the Record, Scales claimed that since "this operation is going to go so quickly," and would "be over so fast," the U.S. military wouldn't have to worry about "suicide attack
Lt. Col. Robert Maginnis
Maginnis is a retired lieutenant colonel who has served as the Pentagon's inspector general and as an adviser to the Defense Department Military Working Group, set up in 1993 by the Department of Defense to address the issue of gays in the miliary. Additionally, Maginnis served as a policy adviser for the conservative Family Research Council. Maginnis has been a Fox News military analyst since at least 2002, during which time he reportedly was a member of Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld's Military Analyst Group.
In the months leading to the Iraq war, Maginnis frequently appeared on Fox News and made various misleading and baseless claims. For example, Maginnis suggested on December 19, 2002, that chemical warfare was going to be a large component of the war and claimed that the Iraqi military was "going to have ... almost booby-trapped use of some chemicals in some built-up areas where civilians are going to be casualties." Maginnis repeated this assertion -- that Iraqi leaders were booby-trapping residential areas with chemical or biological weapons -- on the January 15, 2003, edition of On the Record, stating: "[N]ot only [do] they develop them, they hide them. ... They know exactly where these things are. ... [T]hey are in residential areas, and they probably have some of the things that we've heard about," such as "smallpox material that's been weaponized." On the January 30, 2003, edition of On the Record, Maginnis responded to a Gallup poll indicating that a majority of Americans said "they expected thousands of deaths" from the war, claiming that while "we can't dismiss" the possibility that thousands of deaths would occur, "the reality is that we're not going to see that." On February 3, 2003, he suggested that the reason U.N. weapons inspections turned up empty was "because some of the information somehow got out to the wrong people, and they were able to sanitize the site before the inspectors arrived," perhaps because Iraqis "infiltrated" the inspection teams.
Col. David Hunt
Hunt, according to his Fox News biography, "has over 29 years of military experience including extensive operational experience in Special Operations, Counter Terrorism and Intelligence Operations," where he worked in national intelligence and national security fields.
Hunt, whom O'Reilly has described as "the feistiest guy we have" [The O'Reilly Factor, 3/27/03], repeatedly attempted to link Saddam to terrorism, predicted that the U.N.'s refusal to support U.S. military action in Iraq signaled "the end of the United Nations" [The O'Reilly Factor, 3/7/03], and suggested that Saddam would "torch[] his country in facing the United Nations inspectors" [The Big Story with John Gibson 12/19/02]. Hunt added that the Pentagon's mere assertion of that possibility "is all we need" to invade Iraq. Additionally, Hunt leveled harsh attacks against mainstream newspapers, which he said did not portray a sufficiently positive picture of the initial fighting. On the March 27, 2003, edition of The O'Reilly Factor, Hunt called the reporting by The New York Times and others "treacherous, one step below traitorous ... ecause what they're distorting, heroic action on the part of men and women of the services, to back up their own very stilted point of view." Further, Hunt mocked retired Gen. Wesley Clark's apparent suggestion on CNN that the troops lacked sufficient armored vehicles, a claim that was later proved to be accurate, stating: "Excuse me. There aren't enough armored vehicles? Wah, wah, wah."
We'll be gentle with you Little guy and won't even bring up your deficiency.
