NE -3 (+2 units)
NE ML (+2 units)
Big play on this game and this line is contradicting the models I've run on this game that has this at -4 to -5 depending on how your rate the players/home field. I do think that there is some nice value with both the line and combining ML to back the spread. 3 is a key number and games fall on 3 and 7 respectively 10% and 6%. It's worth it to throw in a few units on ML in case this is close (I expect this game to be close). Both QB's are 0-2 on the road against each other in the playoffs. After watching the last game NE played at Denver, they still came close to beating them with Gronk being their only big play maker and Amendola/Edelman out. One receiver out is one thing, but when Brady has both out he has nobody but Gronk to throw to. Last score was 24-30 Denver over Pats. Pats win that game with both of their key play makers in if I had to take a guess.
I'm 4-2 in the playoffs so far. I ended up rush betting the Texans when I should have spent more time capping the game. That was an easy call on KC and I just made a mistake based on what someone told me. Write-up's are everywhere and I would be repeating a lot of the same things that have already been posted in regards to DEN/NE. I might do one later.
Also leaning CAR -3 but feeling way better about this bet than going against ARI. They look like a super bowl quality team from what I've seen (minus the last few games). I don't think Denver is. If they had the Manning of prior years back my opinion totally changes. Manning has been wildly inconsistent this year and I just can't lay a lot of my money on an inconsistent QB given it's the highest impact player on the roster that sees every single play. No disrespect to Manning, I think he's great and give him a lot of credit.
BOL RX'ers!
NE ML (+2 units)
Big play on this game and this line is contradicting the models I've run on this game that has this at -4 to -5 depending on how your rate the players/home field. I do think that there is some nice value with both the line and combining ML to back the spread. 3 is a key number and games fall on 3 and 7 respectively 10% and 6%. It's worth it to throw in a few units on ML in case this is close (I expect this game to be close). Both QB's are 0-2 on the road against each other in the playoffs. After watching the last game NE played at Denver, they still came close to beating them with Gronk being their only big play maker and Amendola/Edelman out. One receiver out is one thing, but when Brady has both out he has nobody but Gronk to throw to. Last score was 24-30 Denver over Pats. Pats win that game with both of their key play makers in if I had to take a guess.
I'm 4-2 in the playoffs so far. I ended up rush betting the Texans when I should have spent more time capping the game. That was an easy call on KC and I just made a mistake based on what someone told me. Write-up's are everywhere and I would be repeating a lot of the same things that have already been posted in regards to DEN/NE. I might do one later.
Also leaning CAR -3 but feeling way better about this bet than going against ARI. They look like a super bowl quality team from what I've seen (minus the last few games). I don't think Denver is. If they had the Manning of prior years back my opinion totally changes. Manning has been wildly inconsistent this year and I just can't lay a lot of my money on an inconsistent QB given it's the highest impact player on the roster that sees every single play. No disrespect to Manning, I think he's great and give him a lot of credit.
BOL RX'ers!
