BIG's SB - small play

[bradyisgod]

NE -3 (-110) +1 unit
NE ML (-150) +1.5 units to win 1 unit

Taking both the points and ML getting a pretty good price. I think it's pretty close. We could go back and forth speculating which you would rather have, the highest powered offense with a good defense, good coaching (ATL) or a good offense, better defense (easy schedule, point still stands), better QB (top 10 all time), and in my opinion much better coaching (NE). I had to take a step back and check myself being a pats fan, but I still lean the latter.

One thing that I'm placing a lot of value on is playoff and super bowl experience. I think that along with better coaching, this will play a big factor. Matt Ryan is 3-4 overall and 0-2 on the road in the playoffs. Brady is 24-9 overall and 4-3 on the road. If Matt Ryan is on top of his game he's as good as any QB in the league but over his career he has been largely inconsistent in the playoffs. That's a big if for me. Chance of a Falcons upset, better chance Matty Ice lives up to his name, as in ice cold in the playoffs on the road. I give the Falcons a lot of credit, hence the ML Pats bet on what I expect to be a close game, and a dog fight.

Good luck RX'ers!

 

[wizard1183]

Not too confident in them huh?

 

[degen]

Matt Ryan choked in the playoffs because he had one of the dumbest coaches in NFL history, Mike Smith. That guy had no guts and had no clue of time management. I would throw the Mike Smith games out the window.

 

[XSPower]

Good luck my friend.....

 

[Albatross]

Experience is where its at. Doubtful a blowout.

BOL

 

[bradyisgod]

Matt Ryan choked in the playoffs because he had one of the dumbest coaches in NFL history, Mike Smith. That guy had no guts and had no clue of time management. I would throw the Mike Smith games out the window.

I agree that coaches can play a big role in the outcome of a game but in the end Mike Smith wasn't on the field making the passes. Any good head coach will admit that the players ultimately have to perform well and make big plays in the playoffs/super bowl. It ultimately comes down to them.

I appreciate it guys. Good luck with your plays!

 

[Saints2016]

Good luck, should be a great game!

 

[bradyisgod]

Not too confident in them huh?

Hey Wizard. I'm confident in them but not overly confident (and naive) enough to think that the Falcons can't make this a close game or upset.

I think for the price the ML bet is a nice option in addition to a spread bet. I don't do this often unless I expect the game to be close, the ML price is worth it (-150 was low), and most importantly the game centers around a key number (3 being the most relevant happening ~16% of the time). I usually prefer doing this on the dog. I get taxed a little for the odds but also cover my spread bet for a half a unit increase in my bet size. Assuming we think the game is going to run close (I do), I think it's worth it but it's really debatable. There are a lot of guys on here who won't buy points or take odds worse than -110 because they think it's largely unprofitable - I usually lean this way. But I think that's shortsighted when each NFL game and match-up is completely different. I think it's usually the case that buying points/going ML (esp. ML fav) won't be profitable long term if you did it for every single game you played. But I think the EV of doing it largely depends on the situation you are trying to analyze, so I think there are some rare situations like this one where I don't think either team will blow the other out + key number + good ML price where I'll take both to cover my spread bet so in the end it just makes a lot of sense to me.

Good luck with your plays Wizard!

 

[Loves2kickass]

I wish I could talk you out of the Pats.

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

I wish I could talk you out of the Pats.

What makes you a master of knowing who is going to win?

You've been saying in every single thread that NE is going to lose, you're all going to lose money, how you and only a few others are going to be winning money this super bowl.

You have 70 posts on here, where is your credibility as a capper?

I'm not saying you're wrong with your ATL pick but how many threads are you going to pop in and tell people they're wrong and continue with your 32nd SOS premise?

 

[degen]

What makes you a master of knowing who is going to win?

You've been saying in every single thread that NE is going to lose, you're all going to lose money, how you and only a few others are going to be winning money this super bowl.

You have 70 posts on here, where is your credibility as a capper?

I'm not saying you're wrong with your ATL pick but how many threads are you going to pop in and tell people they're wrong and continue with your 32nd SOS premise?

By his behavior, I would guess he is really on the patriots.

 

[wizard1183]

Hey Wizard. I'm confident in them but not overly confident (and naive) enough to think that the Falcons can't make this a close game or upset.

I think for the price the ML bet is a nice option in addition to a spread bet. I don't do this often unless I expect the game to be close, the ML price is worth it (-150 was low), and most importantly the game centers around a key number (3 being the most relevant happening ~16% of the time). I usually prefer doing this on the dog. I get taxed a little for the odds but also cover my spread bet for a half a unit increase in my bet size. Assuming we think the game is going to run close (I do), I think it's worth it but it's really debatable. There are a lot of guys on here who won't buy points or take odds worse than -110 because they think it's largely unprofitable - I usually lean this way. But I think that's shortsighted when each NFL game and match-up is completely different. I think it's usually the case that buying points/going ML (esp. ML fav) won't be profitable long term if you did it for every single game you played. But I think the EV of doing it largely depends on the situation you are trying to analyze, so I think there are some rare situations like this one where I don't think either team will blow the other out + key number + good ML price where I'll take both to cover my spread bet so in the end it just makes a lot of sense to me.

Good luck with your plays Wizard!

Cant disagree with you there. I was meaning just making them 1 unit plays. But I can def see your cautiousness in this. Good luck and thanks

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

By his behavior, I would guess he is really on the patriots.

She but no she's been touting the Falcons every chance she gets like she already knows the outcome.

 

[PeePee]

She but no she's been touting the Falcons every chance she gets like she already knows the outcome.

Typical women...Just like my wife. Lol
They won't recede argument until defeat
Btw, her Rx forum record is 0-2, from last week.

 

[Loves2kickass]

What makes you a master of knowing who is going to win?

You've been saying in every single thread that NE is going to lose, you're all going to lose money, how you and only a few others are going to be winning money this super bowl.

You have 70 posts on here, where is your credibility as a capper?

I'm not saying you're wrong with your ATL pick but how many threads are you going to pop in and tell people they're wrong and continue with your 32nd SOS premise?

I'm not trying to tell everyone they are wrong I just feel strongly with the Falcons. I go into other threads usually to answer a question or to comment since this is a sports forum. I really could care less about SOS, I'm just stating facts. I don't think 70 posts has anything to do with anything honestly.

 

[Loves2kickass]

She but no she's been touting the Falcons every chance she gets like she already knows the outcome.

I obviously don't know the outcome but I'm damn confident with the Falcons covering the line. That's all I will say.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Typical women...Just like my wife. Lol
They won't recede argument until defeat
Btw, her Rx forum record is 0-2, from last week.

It sure is. Was wrong with GB and lost a total on the last drive of the game. I'll be 1-2 after the SB and + over a grand.

 

[bradyisgod]

Very fortunate that the game turned out the way it did. Best game in super bowl history. The NFL has a funny way of humbling people who want to count their chickens before they hatch. I've learned that lesson in the past. I thought this would be a great game from the beginning and have more respect for the Falcons than I did any other team in the NFL - hence the money line bet.

Call it luck, fate, bad calls, rigged, I've heard it all. You just can't deny the fact that this game was played by two world class teams and somehow the Patriots found a way to make it happen when it counted. After a while you can't just keep calling it luck anymore, but still some people insist on it. It doesn't matter if it happened in the first quarter or the fourth quarter. In the first half I saw a 2-0 turnover battle that resulted in two touchdowns for the Falcons, one of them being a pick 6. To me that was pretty lucky considering Brady just set the NFL record for TD to INT ratio. Very unlike him to throw up picks.

I'm fortunate to win my bet, but I'm also willing to give a lot of credit to any team that is ready to comeback from 28-9 moving into the fourth quarter. How many teams can say they did that with everything on the line? How much of that is really luck? Tough to say. My opinions? Grateful? Yes. Lucky? No. That wasn't just any comeback. It was the best one in super bowl history.

Finished the season up 17.5 units. Target goal for me every year is 10-20. I'll see you guys next year.

 

[NYG4lifeNYK]

CONGRATS big, thanks HUGE in part to your pats.


Great season buddy :toast: