BIG's MNF

[bradyisgod]

Denver -3

Hope everyone is having happy holidays. I wrote a huge write-up on this game and got the blue screen of death so it didn't save. Basically everything was in Denver's favor from the spot, injuries, YPG (yards per game differential, Denver has double 60 vs. 30), and home field. If home field is worth 3, they are saying both teams are equal if you got it at 3 yesterday or that Denver is a slight favorite if you got it at -3.5/-4. I'd argue that mile high stadium is worth closer to 4 if not 4 points so they have both teams equal in my eyes. I give the edge to the team that makes the least mistakes, and given Denver has the much better defense, I see the game much more likely to go in the favor of Denver and AJ McCarron making rookie mistakes against the best defense in the league. Injuries - I think the Tyler Eifert injury will play a huge role as AJ needs every hand on deck and every weapon at his disposal to play the Broncos tough. I think they need to establish the run and I see that as being very unlikely to happen against Denver in the first place. As far as the spot goes, Denver needs the game more as Cinci is already clinched. So there you go, you get the better team, the better spot and better defensive statistics (much) for a game where home field is going to effect the defense the most as plays are harder to hear and that stadium gets absolutely crazy.

Hope you guys are having a great new year. I saw this line at -3 yesterday and jumped on it since the public normally goes heavy on home teams on prime time games the day of. Best of luck guys!

 

[JJphilly]

Like it..I also put it in yesterday at -3..bol tonite

 

[texansfan]

I'm still undecided. I have to use -3.5 in my contest, and Denver worries me on offense.

I found it interesting that in the last 3 games, Denver has been outscored 36-0 in the 2nd half. Denver scored on Pitt, but everyone can throw on Pitt. I'm just worried about Denver on offense. Their defense might have to score some points in this game.

 

[statman03]

Mistakes ? how about turnover ratio....Cinn +9....Den even

 

[bradyisgod]

Mistakes ? how about turnover ratio....Cinn +9....Den even

Yes mistakes. I was referring to both qbs and not the team averages over the course of the season where neither QB was featured more than a couple games. I will take denvers defense at home to cause a rookie QB to make more "mistakes" than cinci's D. My only concern with Denver is osweiler putting up enough points on offense. As far as turnover ratio goes, Denver has 7 more fumbles than Cinci which is huge and there are a lot of people who believe fumbles are random and will even out over the years. I tend to believe that. Anyways, I think osweiler not putting up points is a way bigger concern than turnover ratio for Denver backers.

 

[bradyisgod]

I'm still undecided. I have to use -3.5 in my contest, and Denver worries me on offense.

I found it interesting that in the last 3 games, Denver has been outscored 36-0 in the 2nd half. Denver scored on Pitt, but everyone can throw on Pitt. I'm just worried about Denver on offense. Their defense might have to score some points in this game.

Yep you and everyone else. That's the million dollar question. Can osweiler close games and get it together in the second half? With manning in his corner I'm hoping they figure it out tonight. It's anyone guess as to which quarterback shows up tonight which is why I'm not playing the guessing game and I'm sticking with the more solid defense and home field advantage. Amongst other things like injuries which favor Denver imo.

 

[texansfan]

I feel like I'm trying to convince my self to take Cincy +3.5

I have a feeling this game stays very close, maybe that's why I'm leaning Cincy. I know college isn't the NFL, but McCarron has been in big pressure games. He also has great receivers to throw to. Cincy's defense is pretty damn good too.

 

[bradyisgod]

I feel like I'm trying to convince my self to take Cincy +3.5

I have a feeling this game stays very close, maybe that's why I'm leaning Cincy. I know college isn't the NFL, but McCarron has been in big pressure games. He also has great receivers to throw to. Cincy's defense is pretty damn good too.

I also think this game is going to be close. I forgot to add that the spot is excellent for Denver to take a game which was a big reason I picked them. CIN is already clenched and on the road so I'm feeling a let down. For me when the spot lines up with the team I wanted to pick, I seem to do very well. Nobody really knows for sure. If you like Cinci roll with your gut. These are all just best guesses. When the season nears playoffs I usually stop betting as lines become tight and more accurate from my experiences. This is a difficult one to cap, that's for sure!

 

[Serbone]

Can Denver STILL clinch a playoff spot if they lose tonight and then beat SD at home Sunday?

 

[texansfan]

Cincy has clinched but is still playing for the #2 seed, that's a lot of incentive.

 

[texansfan]

Can Denver STILL clinch a playoff spot if they lose tonight and then beat SD at home Sunday?

A look at the Broncos' playoff scenarios:

• No. 1 seed: To get this coveted seed -- which would mean not having to play in dreaded Foxborough, Mass. in the playoffs -- the Broncos would have to win their final two games and New England would have to lose next week at 5-10 Miami. This would leave the Broncos and Patriots with 12-4 records. Denver would have the tiebreaker because it beat New England head-to-head, 30-24 in overtime on Nov. 29 in Denver.
• No. 2 seed: The Broncos would get this seed -- which includes a first-round playoff bye and second-round game at home -- by winning their final two games and a New England win at Miami.
• No. 3 seed: If the Broncos lose to Cincinnati on Monday and beat San Diego, they would be 11-5. Kansas City would then have to lose at home next Sunday to Oakland to finish 10-6. In this scenario, the Patriots and Bengals would have the top two seeds. The Broncos with the No. 3 seed would host a first-round playoff game against the No. 6-seeded wild card team, which would be either the Jets or Steelers.
• No. 4 seed: This is the only seed the Broncos can't get. This is locked in for the AFC South champ, either Houston or Indianapolis.
• No. 5 seed: The Broncos can wind up with this wild card slot if they lose the division title to the Chiefs. This would happen if the Broncos split their remaining two games and the Chiefs beat Oakland next week and the Jets lose next week at Buffalo. If the Broncos get the No. 5 seed, they would play their first-round playoff game either at Houston or at Indianapolis.
• No. 6 seed: The Broncos can wind up here if they split their remaining two games, Kansas City defeats Oakland and the Jets defeat Buffalo. In this scenario, the Broncos would open their postseason with a first-round playoff game at Kansas City.
• Miss the playoffs: This happens if the Broncos lose their final two games, and the Steelers defeat Cleveland next week.

 

[bradyisgod]

Cincy has clinched but is still playing for the #2 seed, that's a lot of incentive.

I agree but I think there's quite a lot more riding on a team looking to make the playoffs.

Also as games near the playoffs I feel like home field becomes even more of an advantage because fans come out even more fired up. Mile high was already tough to play at and it just got that much tougher. It's anyone's guess as to how both QBs perform, I think that's going to be a huge unknown. Looking forward to watching the game. You're smart Texansfan roll with your gut.

 

[Serbone]

Cincy has clinched but is still playing for the #2 seed, that's a lot of incentive.

But in the backs of their minds I think they know if they are IN the playoffs, and if they lose they still can get a # 2 if they beat Baltimore at home Sunday... I think.
WHEREAS I think still hasn't even clinched a playoff spot, the ultimate motivation.

 

[texansfan]

But in the backs of their minds I think they know if they are IN the playoffs, and if they lose they still can get a # 2 if they beat Baltimore at home Sunday... I think.
WHEREAS I think still hasn't even clinched a playoff spot, the ultimate motivation.

I hear you, but all Pitt had to do was beat Baltimore as well, a team they were favored by 10 over. Every team wants to win all their games, and that seeding is very important. I agree that Denver has the most to lose tonight though.

 

[Serbone]

Wait.
Cincy 3 losses.
Denver 4 losses.
So whoever wins this game, if they win the next they get the # 2 seed... Cincy has Ravens at home, Denver has SD at home.
Correct?
Similar to Minny last night, if they lost they would have risk and have to win the last game in their case vs GB.

 

[texansfan]

I'm pretty sure if Cincy wins tonight they wrap up the #2 seed, next week won't matter.

 

[texansfan]

Despite losing starter Andy Dalton to a fractured right thumb two weeks ago, the Bengals can wrap up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye in the postseason with a victory.

Cincinnati, which holds a one-game edge over Denver and is one game behind New England for the best record in the AFC, can also wrap up the AFC North with a win.

 

[texansfan]

Everybody on Denver tonight it appears.

 

[texansfan]

Leaning Den now. Thinking that McCarron's first game was against a bad SF team, so facing a great Den defense will be a challenge. I hate that damn hook though.

 

[texansfan]

Went Den -3.5, let's get this.