I was making picks for week 2 on my wagerline account and a couple of games have peaked my interest (thoughts would be appreciated):
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN
Duke v Army (-2.5)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt
BYU (-17) v Tulane
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon -- really like this one with the RB from Oregon suspended for the year.
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These are just some games that stood out. Gonna try to narrow it down to 4-5 picks for Saturday.
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN
Duke v Army (-2.5)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt
BYU (-17) v Tulane
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon -- really like this one with the RB from Oregon suspended for the year.
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These are just some games that stood out. Gonna try to narrow it down to 4-5 picks for Saturday.
Fuck me, I had a really good analysis of Memphis and then i clicked reload for some reason and lost it all.
---- Here was the gist.
The Memphis v Ole Miss score is very misleading. I turned the game off in the 3rd quarter and looking at the boxscore, I can tell that Memphis lost control late in the 4th quarter. RB Curtis Steele really impress me in this game. The man ran for 90 yards and 2 tds on a good SEC team. I like his down-hill running approached. There are so many backs out there that try to juke their way through the line and end up getting pulled down by fast DEs. Steele lowers the shoulder and delivers the blow. Memphis was covering this game at the 6:14 mark in the 4th (14-31 assuming you got +17.5). Ole Miss scored 21 unanswered including a TD with :06 to go in the game. The INT late killed Memphis and Ole Miss ran up 2 scores within 1:06.
Again, when I was watching the game, Memphis gave Ole Miss all they could handle. This week when they travel to Mid Ten St, they will continue to pound the ball with Steele and Smith. If Memphis doesn't have to rely on throwing the bal (even though Duke Calhoun has some real potential at wide out), I think they will run up and down the field on Mid Tenn St.
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North Carolina (-5) v Uconn
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I didn't get a chance to see either NC or UConn play this weekend. With that said, I've had NC circled on my teams to watch list since early August. Last year they went 8-4 ATS and while I know that most teams do not repeat such success ATS, I don't beleive that Vegas wil be adjusting these lines are tightly as some other teams that smoked them. For the most part, NC flew under the bettors radar. I think I might have wagered on 1 game and clearly I missed out on a lot of cash. QB Yates is looking to build on a 2008 season where he had 11 TD and 4 ints. Yates went 9 for 20 (114 yards), with 2 tds and 1 int. Shaun Draughn added 118 yards on the ground. Is NC for real this year? Do they deserve the #20 ranking? Dunno. Lotta things have to be seen from this team.
UConn: Can they beat good teams without Donald Brown?
Donald Brown was the man at UConn last year. He absolutely dominated teams. UConn went 5-0 ATS their first 5, then dropped a few game and ended up 7-5 ATS on the year (losing to NC and 3 big east teams). NC spanked UConn last year 38-12 at home (as a 4 point chalk).
NC returns 6 on offense (including QB, RB, a WR, and a 3 OL) and 9 on defense. I believe the 9 returners on defense vs the loss of Donald Brown is going to be the key to this game. Again, Citadel sucks, but then again so does Ohio.
This won't be much of a revenge game. This game is going to be up to how much offense production NC can creat. Prediction: NC holds UConn to less thna 14 and puts up 21 or more.
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Duke v Army (+2.5)
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Duke.... lost to Richmond in an unline game. Need I say more???
I probably won't play this one. Just thought it was interesting.
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Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
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The Buffs beat up on a terrible UTEP team (great pick Kelso) despite being a 6 point dog. The Buffs return 6 on offense and 9 on defense. QB Zach Maynard debuted completing 12 out of 19 passes for 159 yards and 1 TD. RBs Thermilus and Henry both added a TD of their own. Roosevelt Naaman caught caught 5 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD. While the Buffs are 2-9 against Big East teams in their last 11, they did cover last year at Pitt as a 13 point dog.
Shit going into the 4th quarter, this game was 16-17 Pitt.
Pitt returns both 7 on offense and 7 on defense. Their defensive line is probably the best part about this team. This is where I could see Buffalo having trouble. Their ground attack is solid, but if Pitt's DL can blowup the Buffs backfield 80% of the time, the Buffs running game wil be shut down and I don't hold out to much hope if they have to go to the air early.
I really don't like giving Buffalo 11 points. Again, after this quick analysis, I'll probably dump this game.
---- Here was the gist.
The Memphis v Ole Miss score is very misleading. I turned the game off in the 3rd quarter and looking at the boxscore, I can tell that Memphis lost control late in the 4th quarter. RB Curtis Steele really impress me in this game. The man ran for 90 yards and 2 tds on a good SEC team. I like his down-hill running approached. There are so many backs out there that try to juke their way through the line and end up getting pulled down by fast DEs. Steele lowers the shoulder and delivers the blow. Memphis was covering this game at the 6:14 mark in the 4th (14-31 assuming you got +17.5). Ole Miss scored 21 unanswered including a TD with :06 to go in the game. The INT late killed Memphis and Ole Miss ran up 2 scores within 1:06.
Again, when I was watching the game, Memphis gave Ole Miss all they could handle. This week when they travel to Mid Ten St, they will continue to pound the ball with Steele and Smith. If Memphis doesn't have to rely on throwing the bal (even though Duke Calhoun has some real potential at wide out), I think they will run up and down the field on Mid Tenn St.
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North Carolina (-5) v Uconn
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I didn't get a chance to see either NC or UConn play this weekend. With that said, I've had NC circled on my teams to watch list since early August. Last year they went 8-4 ATS and while I know that most teams do not repeat such success ATS, I don't beleive that Vegas wil be adjusting these lines are tightly as some other teams that smoked them. For the most part, NC flew under the bettors radar. I think I might have wagered on 1 game and clearly I missed out on a lot of cash. QB Yates is looking to build on a 2008 season where he had 11 TD and 4 ints. Yates went 9 for 20 (114 yards), with 2 tds and 1 int. Shaun Draughn added 118 yards on the ground. Is NC for real this year? Do they deserve the #20 ranking? Dunno. Lotta things have to be seen from this team.
UConn: Can they beat good teams without Donald Brown?
Donald Brown was the man at UConn last year. He absolutely dominated teams. UConn went 5-0 ATS their first 5, then dropped a few game and ended up 7-5 ATS on the year (losing to NC and 3 big east teams). NC spanked UConn last year 38-12 at home (as a 4 point chalk).
NC returns 6 on offense (including QB, RB, a WR, and a 3 OL) and 9 on defense. I believe the 9 returners on defense vs the loss of Donald Brown is going to be the key to this game. Again, Citadel sucks, but then again so does Ohio.
This won't be much of a revenge game. This game is going to be up to how much offense production NC can creat. Prediction: NC holds UConn to less thna 14 and puts up 21 or more.
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Duke v Army (+2.5)
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Duke.... lost to Richmond in an unline game. Need I say more???
I probably won't play this one. Just thought it was interesting.
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Buffalo (+11) v Pitt
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The Buffs beat up on a terrible UTEP team (great pick Kelso) despite being a 6 point dog. The Buffs return 6 on offense and 9 on defense. QB Zach Maynard debuted completing 12 out of 19 passes for 159 yards and 1 TD. RBs Thermilus and Henry both added a TD of their own. Roosevelt Naaman caught caught 5 passes for 91 yards and 1 TD. While the Buffs are 2-9 against Big East teams in their last 11, they did cover last year at Pitt as a 13 point dog.
Shit going into the 4th quarter, this game was 16-17 Pitt.
Pitt returns both 7 on offense and 7 on defense. Their defensive line is probably the best part about this team. This is where I could see Buffalo having trouble. Their ground attack is solid, but if Pitt's DL can blowup the Buffs backfield 80% of the time, the Buffs running game wil be shut down and I don't hold out to much hope if they have to go to the air early.
I really don't like giving Buffalo 11 points. Again, after this quick analysis, I'll probably dump this game.
Houston +15.5 v Okie State
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Houston brings back 8 on offense, an offense that ranked #2 in passing (401.6 ypg) and #2 in offense (562.8 ypg) The offense returns 5,000 yard QB Case Keenum, 1000 yard running back Bryce Beall and 1000 yard wide receiver Tyron Carrier (along with LG, LT, C, RG). Houston lost at Okie St 37-56 last year in a game that yield 1182 total yards!
I like Houston +15.5 because I believe that Okie St could be riding real high after their 24-10 win over Georgia as 5.5 point fav.
Houston led the game 16-14 at halftime but got absolutely torched in the 3rd Quarter (28 unanswered points)
OkieSt gave up 162 yards passing vs Georgia. Georgia also had 2 fumbles lost and an INT. I'm suprised it wasn't worse then a 14 point win. QB Robinson was only 11 for 22 (not a great start for a potential heisman)
On the other hand, Casey Keenum threw 23 for 30 for 327yds and 4 tds. Understandably, the Northwestern defense is horseshit and Georgia is going to be an SEC contender. This game comes down to whether or not the OkieSt defensive backfield has been revamped. They only return 1 starter in Perrish Cox, which could be a good thing for new veteran DC Bill Young.
This week will be a real test for the OKST secondary.
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BYU -17 v Tulane
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Scratch this one.
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South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
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I'm probably going to put this one in early and buy it down -.5 to -7. South Carolina looked dreadful (and so did NCState) in the season opener. Both teams sucked big time. So many missed opportunies. The lack of offense was just sickening. SC QB Garcia is god fucking awful.
SC had 256 total yards to NCState's 133. 133? OMG, OC kill yourself. South Carolina should have demolished NC State. They just could not finish drives. 16 first downs. 256 yards (the field is 100 yards, so you went 2.5 fields long and only put up 7?). South Carolina didn't punt the ball. Jesus how many fgs did they miss (can't remember the game much more then it was terrible)?
Georgia is going to come into this game pissed off. Beyond pissed off. They had 3 turnovers against OkieSt. I suspect Mike Bob and Mark Richt wil have a few words about fumbles this week. I don't see Georgia starting the season 0-2 and losing to South Carolina at home in the 1st game of conference play. Georgia will get the offense back on track this week. They scored more points in their opener against a much better team, despite having 3 turnovers. Georgia fumbled the ball on their on 11 yard line (led to an OkieSt field goal). Joe Cox sacked and fumbled at Geo 32 (led to OkieSt TD). 10 points off of turnovers. Georgia's offense will not make the same mistakes it did against OkieSt.
This might be my GOM. Chris Smelley kept South Carolina in the game last year. Garcia is dogshit. Georgia in a fucking rout.
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Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
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Air Force crushed Nicholls St 72-0. Minnesota came out quick against Syracuse (14-3) but then just went stagnent on offense for 3 quarters and barely sqeeked by in OT). Could this be a wakeup call for Minny? I doubt it.
Air Force killed Nic St 72-0. In the game, AF handed the ball off to 13 different RBs (4 of which had touchdowns) who combined for 8 TDS and 474 yards! QB Tim Jeffeson rushed 22 yards and 2 TDs. He went 5-7 passing for 102 yds and 1 TD.
Minny got up quick off a bad snap by Syracuse on the first play of the game. Greg Paulus impressed me in this game. I talked a lot of shit on Syracuse and I apologize. They played a great game against Minnesota and deserved to win that game. However, their loss is our gain. Why? Minny still won the game. Even though they are going to get ripped at practice, they still won. The public only looks at the final score. Because of that, this line will probably settle at +5.5 or +6. I'll take those points any day with a team that is extremely motivated and extremely disciplined. Minny looked dead. They didn't even seem to want to be in Syracuse.
#1 reason why Air Force covers (and maybe wins outright) ---- The option.
I've always said this, "When run properly, the option is the most devastating play in college football." DEVASTATING! You all saw Ohio St struggle against Navy. Why? The triple option. How many teams run the option in the Big Ten. Uhhh, none?! Why prepare for an offense that only 1 of your opponents runs?
Bottom line: Minny goes home thinking they are good because they came back and beat a poor Syracuse team. Air Force comes in with a finely tuned option attack and blows Minny up in the running game. The Falcons also return 7 on defense (including 3 LBs and 3 in the secondary). The Weber-Decker connection seems a little broken this year. I expect AF to blanket Decker like Syracuse and shut him down yet again. Weber truely looked lost without his main receiver.
Air Force 34 Minnesolta 20
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USC (-6) v OhioSt
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Don't like laying points at the Horseshoe, but I do not believe that OhioSt is NOT all what they are hyped up to be. #6 in the nation, the Buckeyes narrowly avoided being upset by the Midshipman. Well, maybe it wasn't that narrow, but the Midshipman ran the ball very well (186 yards) on the Buckeyes. How did they do this? Triple Option. Like I stated in my last post, the option can be the most devastating play in colege football when run properly. OhioSt had a hell of a time containing Daniel Herron and Ricky Dobbs. Now, enter #4 USC. USC started slow against San Jose State. Real slow. In fact, SJSU was winning 3-0 at the end of the first. From then on it was all Trojans, scoring 28 14 14 respectively. The Trojans finished with 612 yards total offense with 343 on the ground and 278 in the air. The lone fg by SJSU was set up off of a poor 24 yard punt from the USC 10 to the USC 34. The Trojans gave up 112 yards in the air and only 9 on the ground. Clearly, the Trojan run defense is stronger then their passing defense.
Ok, now that I've talked about the openers. Let's talk about what happened last year. Domination. Domination happened last year.
The Buckeyes traveled across the country only to get their asses handed to them 35-3. Did Beanie get hurt in this game? Or was he already hurt? No matter, all we need to know was that he had 1 carry for -2 yards. Would a healthy Beanie Wells have made a big difference? I don't think so. Pesonally, I never though Beanie Well was that good of a player. Maybe I only saw him play when he was plague with injuries. I can't remember. What I do remember is that Mark Sanchez lit up the OhioSt seconary with 4 TDs and 1 INT. On the other hand QB Todd Boeckman passed for 82 yards and 2 INTs and was replaced by Terrel Pryor.
USC only returns 3 from the #1 defense. USC is a school that simply reloads. They have 2nd and 3rd team players who could easily start at many of the top 15 schools. IMO, Pete Caroll is a significantly better coach then Jim Tressel. Tressel fucked around last week and put Hauserman in when the Buckeyes went up quick against Navy. I understand the need to demo your 2nd team QB when you have a big lead, but come on, you almost cost your team the game (and you cost me 250 by .5 points). Hauser is not a good QB. If Pryor goes down, this could get ugly.
Final note. The Big Ten seems to be a very weak conference this year. Minny barely beat Syracuse, PSU didn't score in the 2nd half vs the Zips, Illinois got smoked by Mizz, and Wisconsin barely beat Northern Ill (28-20). The Pac 10 provide for a 56-3 USC blowout, Cal (I love this team) killing Maryland 52-14, Oregon St beatin Portland St 34-7, Stanford over Washington 39-13, UCLA 33-13 over SDST, Arizon St 50-3 over Idaho St, and Washington hanging with LSU 23-31. Albeit, some of the teams the Pac 10 played were not stellar, the Pac 10 seems to be one of the strongest conferences in the league.
Couple of Wagerline Stats:
USC is 10-1 ATS last 10 v Big Ten teams
USC is 14-5 ATS v teams with a winning record
OhioSt are 1-7 in last 8 at home.
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Houston brings back 8 on offense, an offense that ranked #2 in passing (401.6 ypg) and #2 in offense (562.8 ypg) The offense returns 5,000 yard QB Case Keenum, 1000 yard running back Bryce Beall and 1000 yard wide receiver Tyron Carrier (along with LG, LT, C, RG). Houston lost at Okie St 37-56 last year in a game that yield 1182 total yards!
I like Houston +15.5 because I believe that Okie St could be riding real high after their 24-10 win over Georgia as 5.5 point fav.
Houston led the game 16-14 at halftime but got absolutely torched in the 3rd Quarter (28 unanswered points)
OkieSt gave up 162 yards passing vs Georgia. Georgia also had 2 fumbles lost and an INT. I'm suprised it wasn't worse then a 14 point win. QB Robinson was only 11 for 22 (not a great start for a potential heisman)
On the other hand, Casey Keenum threw 23 for 30 for 327yds and 4 tds. Understandably, the Northwestern defense is horseshit and Georgia is going to be an SEC contender. This game comes down to whether or not the OkieSt defensive backfield has been revamped. They only return 1 starter in Perrish Cox, which could be a good thing for new veteran DC Bill Young.
This week will be a real test for the OKST secondary.
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BYU -17 v Tulane
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Scratch this one.
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South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5)
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I'm probably going to put this one in early and buy it down -.5 to -7. South Carolina looked dreadful (and so did NCState) in the season opener. Both teams sucked big time. So many missed opportunies. The lack of offense was just sickening. SC QB Garcia is god fucking awful.
SC had 256 total yards to NCState's 133. 133? OMG, OC kill yourself. South Carolina should have demolished NC State. They just could not finish drives. 16 first downs. 256 yards (the field is 100 yards, so you went 2.5 fields long and only put up 7?). South Carolina didn't punt the ball. Jesus how many fgs did they miss (can't remember the game much more then it was terrible)?
Georgia is going to come into this game pissed off. Beyond pissed off. They had 3 turnovers against OkieSt. I suspect Mike Bob and Mark Richt wil have a few words about fumbles this week. I don't see Georgia starting the season 0-2 and losing to South Carolina at home in the 1st game of conference play. Georgia will get the offense back on track this week. They scored more points in their opener against a much better team, despite having 3 turnovers. Georgia fumbled the ball on their on 11 yard line (led to an OkieSt field goal). Joe Cox sacked and fumbled at Geo 32 (led to OkieSt TD). 10 points off of turnovers. Georgia's offense will not make the same mistakes it did against OkieSt.
This might be my GOM. Chris Smelley kept South Carolina in the game last year. Garcia is dogshit. Georgia in a fucking rout.
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Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota
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Air Force crushed Nicholls St 72-0. Minnesota came out quick against Syracuse (14-3) but then just went stagnent on offense for 3 quarters and barely sqeeked by in OT). Could this be a wakeup call for Minny? I doubt it.
Air Force killed Nic St 72-0. In the game, AF handed the ball off to 13 different RBs (4 of which had touchdowns) who combined for 8 TDS and 474 yards! QB Tim Jeffeson rushed 22 yards and 2 TDs. He went 5-7 passing for 102 yds and 1 TD.
Minny got up quick off a bad snap by Syracuse on the first play of the game. Greg Paulus impressed me in this game. I talked a lot of shit on Syracuse and I apologize. They played a great game against Minnesota and deserved to win that game. However, their loss is our gain. Why? Minny still won the game. Even though they are going to get ripped at practice, they still won. The public only looks at the final score. Because of that, this line will probably settle at +5.5 or +6. I'll take those points any day with a team that is extremely motivated and extremely disciplined. Minny looked dead. They didn't even seem to want to be in Syracuse.
#1 reason why Air Force covers (and maybe wins outright) ---- The option.
I've always said this, "When run properly, the option is the most devastating play in college football." DEVASTATING! You all saw Ohio St struggle against Navy. Why? The triple option. How many teams run the option in the Big Ten. Uhhh, none?! Why prepare for an offense that only 1 of your opponents runs?
Bottom line: Minny goes home thinking they are good because they came back and beat a poor Syracuse team. Air Force comes in with a finely tuned option attack and blows Minny up in the running game. The Falcons also return 7 on defense (including 3 LBs and 3 in the secondary). The Weber-Decker connection seems a little broken this year. I expect AF to blanket Decker like Syracuse and shut him down yet again. Weber truely looked lost without his main receiver.
Air Force 34 Minnesolta 20
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USC (-6) v OhioSt
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Don't like laying points at the Horseshoe, but I do not believe that OhioSt is NOT all what they are hyped up to be. #6 in the nation, the Buckeyes narrowly avoided being upset by the Midshipman. Well, maybe it wasn't that narrow, but the Midshipman ran the ball very well (186 yards) on the Buckeyes. How did they do this? Triple Option. Like I stated in my last post, the option can be the most devastating play in colege football when run properly. OhioSt had a hell of a time containing Daniel Herron and Ricky Dobbs. Now, enter #4 USC. USC started slow against San Jose State. Real slow. In fact, SJSU was winning 3-0 at the end of the first. From then on it was all Trojans, scoring 28 14 14 respectively. The Trojans finished with 612 yards total offense with 343 on the ground and 278 in the air. The lone fg by SJSU was set up off of a poor 24 yard punt from the USC 10 to the USC 34. The Trojans gave up 112 yards in the air and only 9 on the ground. Clearly, the Trojan run defense is stronger then their passing defense.
Ok, now that I've talked about the openers. Let's talk about what happened last year. Domination. Domination happened last year.
The Buckeyes traveled across the country only to get their asses handed to them 35-3. Did Beanie get hurt in this game? Or was he already hurt? No matter, all we need to know was that he had 1 carry for -2 yards. Would a healthy Beanie Wells have made a big difference? I don't think so. Pesonally, I never though Beanie Well was that good of a player. Maybe I only saw him play when he was plague with injuries. I can't remember. What I do remember is that Mark Sanchez lit up the OhioSt seconary with 4 TDs and 1 INT. On the other hand QB Todd Boeckman passed for 82 yards and 2 INTs and was replaced by Terrel Pryor.
USC only returns 3 from the #1 defense. USC is a school that simply reloads. They have 2nd and 3rd team players who could easily start at many of the top 15 schools. IMO, Pete Caroll is a significantly better coach then Jim Tressel. Tressel fucked around last week and put Hauserman in when the Buckeyes went up quick against Navy. I understand the need to demo your 2nd team QB when you have a big lead, but come on, you almost cost your team the game (and you cost me 250 by .5 points). Hauser is not a good QB. If Pryor goes down, this could get ugly.
Final note. The Big Ten seems to be a very weak conference this year. Minny barely beat Syracuse, PSU didn't score in the 2nd half vs the Zips, Illinois got smoked by Mizz, and Wisconsin barely beat Northern Ill (28-20). The Pac 10 provide for a 56-3 USC blowout, Cal (I love this team) killing Maryland 52-14, Oregon St beatin Portland St 34-7, Stanford over Washington 39-13, UCLA 33-13 over SDST, Arizon St 50-3 over Idaho St, and Washington hanging with LSU 23-31. Albeit, some of the teams the Pac 10 played were not stellar, the Pac 10 seems to be one of the strongest conferences in the league.
Couple of Wagerline Stats:
USC is 10-1 ATS last 10 v Big Ten teams
USC is 14-5 ATS v teams with a winning record
OhioSt are 1-7 in last 8 at home.
Purdue (+11) v Oregon
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Purdue took out Toledo 52-31 in their home opener. I didn't get a chance to watch this game, but I was monitoring the gamecast and Purdue seemed to be very impressive offensively from the start. The Boilermakers racked up 535 total yards with 315 on the ground and 220 in the air. RB Ralph Bolden gained 234 yards on 21 attempts and had 2 TDs. Jaycen Talylor added 2 TDs on 14 carries for 84 yards. Finally, QB Joey Elliot had 220 yards passing and went 17-28. He threw 3 TDs but threw 3 INTS as well. Recieving - Kevin Smith had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 1 TD. So how the hell did Toledo score so many points? Threw the AIR. The Rockets had a staggering 423 yards passing and 3 TDs with 2 INTs. The Boilermakers probably started subbing when they were up 45-21 in the 3rd quarter, but the Rockets still managed to score 21. Toledo had two reciever over 100 yards. Purdue is going to have to tighten it up against Oregon this week if they want to pull off the upset.
Oregon will slip to the mid #20s if not off the AP poll altogether after their loss to Boise St (19-8). The Ducks lost supposed star LeGarrette Blount (8 rushes for -5 yards, supposed star) due to a one punch he delivered to a Boise lineman. The punch was straight up gangster and completely uncalled for at the end of the game. I can see why he might have been pissed. I'd be pissed if I was supposed to be this great RB and rushed for -5 yards. But, the momentarily lapse in judgement turned into pure insanity when he continued to fight both players and coaches. I don't know if he will be missed, but I can only assume there will be some ripples in the Oregon offense.
Jeremiah Masoli was a highly touted QB this preseason. Lindy's had the Ducks backfield ranked in the top 10 due to Masoli and Blount. Masoli really didn't impress me in his opener against Boise. He threw 14 for 27 for 120 yards and 1 INT. I think he might do a little better against a Purdue defense as opposed to the stiff Boise defense. Blount was, at least, a good decoy and gave a running game threat to the Ducks. I don't know how much running they will do in this game. It is going to be pass, pass, pass, and more pass.
Purdue has the offensive weapons to make this game a shootout. In any shootout, I'll gladly take the points.
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Purdue took out Toledo 52-31 in their home opener. I didn't get a chance to watch this game, but I was monitoring the gamecast and Purdue seemed to be very impressive offensively from the start. The Boilermakers racked up 535 total yards with 315 on the ground and 220 in the air. RB Ralph Bolden gained 234 yards on 21 attempts and had 2 TDs. Jaycen Talylor added 2 TDs on 14 carries for 84 yards. Finally, QB Joey Elliot had 220 yards passing and went 17-28. He threw 3 TDs but threw 3 INTS as well. Recieving - Kevin Smith had 8 receptions for 117 yards and 1 TD. So how the hell did Toledo score so many points? Threw the AIR. The Rockets had a staggering 423 yards passing and 3 TDs with 2 INTs. The Boilermakers probably started subbing when they were up 45-21 in the 3rd quarter, but the Rockets still managed to score 21. Toledo had two reciever over 100 yards. Purdue is going to have to tighten it up against Oregon this week if they want to pull off the upset.
Oregon will slip to the mid #20s if not off the AP poll altogether after their loss to Boise St (19-8). The Ducks lost supposed star LeGarrette Blount (8 rushes for -5 yards, supposed star) due to a one punch he delivered to a Boise lineman. The punch was straight up gangster and completely uncalled for at the end of the game. I can see why he might have been pissed. I'd be pissed if I was supposed to be this great RB and rushed for -5 yards. But, the momentarily lapse in judgement turned into pure insanity when he continued to fight both players and coaches. I don't know if he will be missed, but I can only assume there will be some ripples in the Oregon offense.
Jeremiah Masoli was a highly touted QB this preseason. Lindy's had the Ducks backfield ranked in the top 10 due to Masoli and Blount. Masoli really didn't impress me in his opener against Boise. He threw 14 for 27 for 120 yards and 1 INT. I think he might do a little better against a Purdue defense as opposed to the stiff Boise defense. Blount was, at least, a good decoy and gave a running game threat to the Ducks. I don't know how much running they will do in this game. It is going to be pass, pass, pass, and more pass.
Purdue has the offensive weapons to make this game a shootout. In any shootout, I'll gladly take the points.
Week 1 Recap:
-- Oregon v Boise St (-3) -- WINNER -- +136.36
-- South Carolina v NC State (-5) -- LOSER -- -$50
-- Troy (-7, bought down from -7.5) to Boise St (-3) to Boist St Under 64.5 -- LOSER -- -$25
-- Utah St (+21) v Utah -- WINNER -- +22.73
-- 2nd Half Oregon v Boise St (-135) -- LOSER -$50
-- Tulsa (-14) v Tulane -- WINNER -- +190.48
-- Minnesota (-7) v Syracuse -- LOSER -- -$300
-- 1st Half Line Navy v OhioSt (-13.5) -- LOSER -- -$250
-- Minnesota (-7) to UTEP (-10, bought .5) to Texas AM (-14, bought .5) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Western Mich (+14) v Michigan -- LOSER -- -$75
-- Nevada v Notre Dame (-14) -- WINNER -- +90.91
-- 1st Half Nevada v Notre Dame (-7.5) -- WINNER -- +22.73
-- Georgia v OkieSt (-4.5) -- WINNER -- +$45.45
-- Mizz v Illinois (-7) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Buffalo v UTEP (-10) -- LOSER -- -$150
-- San Joe St v USC (-34.5) -- WINNER -- +$136.36
-- Florida ATL v Nebraska (-24) -- WINNER -- +$41.67
-- Lousiana Tech v Auburn (-12) -- WINNER -- +$68.18
-- UCONN v Ohio (+3.5) -- LOSER -- -$25
-- New Mexico v Texas AM (-16.5) -- WINNER -- +$45.45
-- BYU v Oklahoma (-23) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Virginia Tech (+210) v Alabama -- LOSER -- -$50
-- Maryland v California (-21) -- WINNER -- +$83.33
-- LSU (-18) v Washington -- LOSER -- -$75
-- Colorado St v Colorado (-10) -- LOSER -- -$150
-- Miami v Florida St (-6) -- LOSER -- -$200
YTD: 11-13 (-$691.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-15 (-$816.05)
-------------------------------
Obviously not what I want. I thought favs covered in the first week? Terrible weekend highlighted by a huge loss with Florida St. They go up on Miami by 9, then by 7, and you'd think they would be able to hold on. 1 fucking stop on defense. Their pass defense is non-fucking-existent.
-- Oregon v Boise St (-3) -- WINNER -- +136.36
-- South Carolina v NC State (-5) -- LOSER -- -$50
-- Troy (-7, bought down from -7.5) to Boise St (-3) to Boist St Under 64.5 -- LOSER -- -$25
-- Utah St (+21) v Utah -- WINNER -- +22.73
-- 2nd Half Oregon v Boise St (-135) -- LOSER -$50
-- Tulsa (-14) v Tulane -- WINNER -- +190.48
-- Minnesota (-7) v Syracuse -- LOSER -- -$300
-- 1st Half Line Navy v OhioSt (-13.5) -- LOSER -- -$250
-- Minnesota (-7) to UTEP (-10, bought .5) to Texas AM (-14, bought .5) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Western Mich (+14) v Michigan -- LOSER -- -$75
-- Nevada v Notre Dame (-14) -- WINNER -- +90.91
-- 1st Half Nevada v Notre Dame (-7.5) -- WINNER -- +22.73
-- Georgia v OkieSt (-4.5) -- WINNER -- +$45.45
-- Mizz v Illinois (-7) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Buffalo v UTEP (-10) -- LOSER -- -$150
-- San Joe St v USC (-34.5) -- WINNER -- +$136.36
-- Florida ATL v Nebraska (-24) -- WINNER -- +$41.67
-- Lousiana Tech v Auburn (-12) -- WINNER -- +$68.18
-- UCONN v Ohio (+3.5) -- LOSER -- -$25
-- New Mexico v Texas AM (-16.5) -- WINNER -- +$45.45
-- BYU v Oklahoma (-23) -- LOSER -- -$100
-- Virginia Tech (+210) v Alabama -- LOSER -- -$50
-- Maryland v California (-21) -- WINNER -- +$83.33
-- LSU (-18) v Washington -- LOSER -- -$75
-- Colorado St v Colorado (-10) -- LOSER -- -$150
-- Miami v Florida St (-6) -- LOSER -- -$200
YTD: 11-13 (-$691.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-15 (-$816.05)
-------------------------------
Obviously not what I want. I thought favs covered in the first week? Terrible weekend highlighted by a huge loss with Florida St. They go up on Miami by 9, then by 7, and you'd think they would be able to hold on. 1 fucking stop on defense. Their pass defense is non-fucking-existent.
Ok 1 more furious stat before I call it quits for the night:
This weekend I lost 6 games outright. 6 favorites lost fucking outright.
They were:
1. BYU over Oklahoma (-23) -- 14-13
2. SoCar over NC State (-5) -- 7-3
3. Mizz over Illinois (-7) -- 37-9
4. Buffalo over UTEP (-10) -- 23-17
5. Colorado St over Colorado (-10) -- 23-17
6. Miami v Florida St (-6) -- 38-34
3 double-digit favs go down outright.
This weekend I lost 6 games outright. 6 favorites lost fucking outright.
They were:
1. BYU over Oklahoma (-23) -- 14-13
2. SoCar over NC State (-5) -- 7-3
3. Mizz over Illinois (-7) -- 37-9
4. Buffalo over UTEP (-10) -- 23-17
5. Colorado St over Colorado (-10) -- 23-17
6. Miami v Florida St (-6) -- 38-34
3 double-digit favs go down outright.
love your write up on Houston...I was thinking the same thing when i fist saw this line, then i thought, im definetly waiting b/c the pblic is gonna come in heavy on Okie St, let this line move up and snag Houston when the line gets past 17......and im also with you on the USC game as well...however im gonna get on that now b4 that line moves not so much in our favor..... great stuff big D...
Serious question for you.
Do you think you can achieve your goal by betting 26 or so games each weekend?hno:
Wish you the best in your endeavor, but I really think you need to cut down on the number of plays you make.
Good luck! :toast:
No sir I do not. In my week 1 thread, there was a discussion on bankrol and wager sizes. I got caught up in opening weekend and ended up betting small and having fun.
This week is back to business and I'm planing on making 4-5 2%-4% of bankroll plays
@)
with you on memphis. Feel a little nervous about it because its probably a joe public play but then again its memphis and mtsu, so there probably isnt much betting volume anyway. I was on memphis +17.5 last week and I have never been so beaten up by the qb I was backing but it was a good SEC defense and I don't think we will see a repeat performance
Coaches Poll:
:
1 Florida (56) 1-0 1472 1
2 Texas (2) 1-0 1407 2
3 USC (1) 1-0 1352 4
4 Alabama 1-0 1299 5
5 Penn State 1-0 1145 8
6 Oklahoma St 1-0 1114 11
7 Ohio State 1-0 1106 6
8 Mississippi 1-0 1006 10
9 LSU 1-0 977 9
10 California 1-0 935 12
11 Boise State 1-0 803 16
12 BYU 1-0 755 24
13 Geo. Tech 1-0 685 15
14 Oklahoma 0-1 682 3
15 Virg. Tech 0-1 633 7
16 TCU 0-0 543 17
17 Utah 1-0 503 18
18 Nebraska 1-0 360 22
19 N. Carolina 1-0 358 20
20 Notre Dame 1-0 335 23
21 Georgia 0-1 304 13
22 Miami (Fla.) 1-0 276 33
23 Cincinnati 1-0 187 29
24 Oregon St. 1-0 169 25
25 Kansas 1-0 139 26
AP Poll:
:
1 Florida (56) 1-0 1493 1
2 Texas (2) 1-0 1424 2
3 USC 1-0 1355 4
4 Alabama (2) 1-0 1331 5
5 Oklahoma St 1-0 1201 9
6 Mississippi 1-0 1095 8
7 Penn State 1-0 1082 9
8 Ohio State 1-0 985 6
9 BYU 1-0 984 20
10 California 1-0 971 12
11 LSU 1-0 890 11
12 Boise State 1-0 882 14
13 Oklahoma 0-1 782 3
14 Virg. Tech 0-1 652 7
15 Geo. Tech 1-0 630 15
16 TCU 0-0 523 17
17 Utah 1-0 404 19
18 Notre Dame 1-0 383 23
19 N. Carolina 1-0 338 21
20 Miami (Fla.) 1-0 315 35
21 Georgia 0-1 294 13
22 Nebraska 1-0 266 24
23 Cincinnati 1-0 248 33
24 Kansas 1-0 196 25
25 Missouri 1-0 126 45
:
1 Florida (56) 1-0 1472 1
2 Texas (2) 1-0 1407 2
3 USC (1) 1-0 1352 4
4 Alabama 1-0 1299 5
5 Penn State 1-0 1145 8
6 Oklahoma St 1-0 1114 11
7 Ohio State 1-0 1106 6
8 Mississippi 1-0 1006 10
9 LSU 1-0 977 9
10 California 1-0 935 12
11 Boise State 1-0 803 16
12 BYU 1-0 755 24
13 Geo. Tech 1-0 685 15
14 Oklahoma 0-1 682 3
15 Virg. Tech 0-1 633 7
16 TCU 0-0 543 17
17 Utah 1-0 503 18
18 Nebraska 1-0 360 22
19 N. Carolina 1-0 358 20
20 Notre Dame 1-0 335 23
21 Georgia 0-1 304 13
22 Miami (Fla.) 1-0 276 33
23 Cincinnati 1-0 187 29
24 Oregon St. 1-0 169 25
25 Kansas 1-0 139 26
AP Poll:
:
1 Florida (56) 1-0 1493 1
2 Texas (2) 1-0 1424 2
3 USC 1-0 1355 4
4 Alabama (2) 1-0 1331 5
5 Oklahoma St 1-0 1201 9
6 Mississippi 1-0 1095 8
7 Penn State 1-0 1082 9
8 Ohio State 1-0 985 6
9 BYU 1-0 984 20
10 California 1-0 971 12
11 LSU 1-0 890 11
12 Boise State 1-0 882 14
13 Oklahoma 0-1 782 3
14 Virg. Tech 0-1 652 7
15 Geo. Tech 1-0 630 15
16 TCU 0-0 523 17
17 Utah 1-0 404 19
18 Notre Dame 1-0 383 23
19 N. Carolina 1-0 338 21
20 Miami (Fla.) 1-0 315 35
21 Georgia 0-1 294 13
22 Nebraska 1-0 266 24
23 Cincinnati 1-0 248 33
24 Kansas 1-0 196 25
25 Missouri 1-0 126 45
I really love USC. Grabbed it at -3 beginning of the year.
Air Force should win outright and definately love the points.
Love Army. Home teams are 5 - 0 ATS last 5 in that series.
Taking the under in Georgia / SC game. 12 - 0 Under since '96.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Air Force should win outright and definately love the points.
Love Army. Home teams are 5 - 0 ATS last 5 in that series.
Taking the under in Georgia / SC game. 12 - 0 Under since '96.
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
Sharp Movements??
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St ---- no change
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN ----- now at (-4.5)
Duke v Army (-2.5) ------- now at (-2)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt ---------- now at (+10.5)
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt ------- now at (+15)
BYU (-17) v Tulane -------- now (-17.5)
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5) --- now
(-7)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota ------ now (+3.5)!!!!
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St ------ now (-7)
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon ------ now (+12)
All lines were taken from Sportsbook
We all new USC would move.
So sharp money on Houston, Buffalo, Air Force, and Army?
Memphis (pk) v Midd Tenn St ---- no change
North Carolina (-5) v UCONN ----- now at (-4.5)
Duke v Army (-2.5) ------- now at (-2)
Buffalo (+11) v Pitt ---------- now at (+10.5)
Houston (+15.5) v OkieSt ------- now at (+15)
BYU (-17) v Tulane -------- now (-17.5)
South Carolina v Georgia (-7.5) --- now
(-7)
Air Force (+4.5) v Minnesota ------ now (+3.5)!!!!
USC (-6.5) v Ohio St ------ now (-7)
Purdue (+11.5) v Oregon ------ now (+12)
All lines were taken from Sportsbook
We all new USC would move.
So sharp money on Houston, Buffalo, Air Force, and Army?
Thursday Play
YTD: 11-13 (-$691.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-15 (-$816.05)
-------------------------------------
Finally, back to the action.
Clemson v Georgia Tech (-5)
I'm not going to do an indepth write-up for this game. Just a few key points:
1. Clemson is a turnover happy team. 5 fumbles (2 lost) and 4 ints against GT last year (-1 TO margin overall).
2. 8 defensive returners (1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LBs, 2 CBS, 1 SS). Clemson gave up 17.3 ppg last year with the nations 13th ranked defense
3. 9 offensive returners (4 OL, 1 WR, 1 TE)
--------------------------------------------------
1. GT brings back a 9 offensive starters in cluding QB, All 3 RBs, both WRs, and LG, C, RG (4th ranked rushing offense last year).
2. GT brings back 8 on defense, only replacing 2 DTs and 1 DE.
3. 2nd year running option attack
--------------------------------------------------
Keys:
1. CJ Stiller tweaked a hammy last week and didn't play the 2nd half (Clemson). Hamstrings injuries suck. You really can't do much more than ice and stretch to rehab. Hamstring injuries are nagging injuries. If Stiller isn't able to perform up to his ability because of this injury, the Clemson offense could be stifled.
2. Clemson RS Freshman QB Kyle Parker has never seen a tough defense like GTech. With GTech returning its entire secondary, I could easily see the young QB throwing a pick or two (shit last year, the Clem QB threw 4 picks against this same defense.
3. Turnovers: Both teams are prone to turnvovers. In the last meeting, GTech fumbled the ball 3 times (2 lost) and Clemson lost it 5 times (2 lost).
4. Option attack: The option offense is not an easy scheme to run. There are a lot of fakes and misdirection involved. These movements elevate the chance for fumbles, missed handoffs, and blown assignments.
My initial feeling was GTech and then I sat down and read through a bunch of other posters comments and picks. I must admit that I swayed to Clemson for a while, but I just can't put my money on a RS Freshman QB and an injured running back against this GTech defense.
While the proper play is most likely the under, I'm gonna roll with the Yellow Jackets tonight.
BOL to all in your bets!
Also, if I had to lean on an NFL team, I'd go with the Titans (not touching NFL this early). The SB champion Steelers have had some controversy this off season and the Titans always play the Steelers tough. Defense will be key, as noted by the 35.5 O/U. Very excited to watch these two teams play tonight.
Georgia Tech (-5) -- $200 to win $181.82 at Sportsbook
YTD: 11-13 (-$691.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-15 (-$816.05)
-------------------------------------
Finally, back to the action.
Clemson v Georgia Tech (-5)
I'm not going to do an indepth write-up for this game. Just a few key points:
1. Clemson is a turnover happy team. 5 fumbles (2 lost) and 4 ints against GT last year (-1 TO margin overall).
2. 8 defensive returners (1 DT, 2 DE, 2 LBs, 2 CBS, 1 SS). Clemson gave up 17.3 ppg last year with the nations 13th ranked defense
3. 9 offensive returners (4 OL, 1 WR, 1 TE)
--------------------------------------------------
1. GT brings back a 9 offensive starters in cluding QB, All 3 RBs, both WRs, and LG, C, RG (4th ranked rushing offense last year).
2. GT brings back 8 on defense, only replacing 2 DTs and 1 DE.
3. 2nd year running option attack
--------------------------------------------------
Keys:
1. CJ Stiller tweaked a hammy last week and didn't play the 2nd half (Clemson). Hamstrings injuries suck. You really can't do much more than ice and stretch to rehab. Hamstring injuries are nagging injuries. If Stiller isn't able to perform up to his ability because of this injury, the Clemson offense could be stifled.
2. Clemson RS Freshman QB Kyle Parker has never seen a tough defense like GTech. With GTech returning its entire secondary, I could easily see the young QB throwing a pick or two (shit last year, the Clem QB threw 4 picks against this same defense.
3. Turnovers: Both teams are prone to turnvovers. In the last meeting, GTech fumbled the ball 3 times (2 lost) and Clemson lost it 5 times (2 lost).
4. Option attack: The option offense is not an easy scheme to run. There are a lot of fakes and misdirection involved. These movements elevate the chance for fumbles, missed handoffs, and blown assignments.
My initial feeling was GTech and then I sat down and read through a bunch of other posters comments and picks. I must admit that I swayed to Clemson for a while, but I just can't put my money on a RS Freshman QB and an injured running back against this GTech defense.
While the proper play is most likely the under, I'm gonna roll with the Yellow Jackets tonight.
BOL to all in your bets!
Also, if I had to lean on an NFL team, I'd go with the Titans (not touching NFL this early). The SB champion Steelers have had some controversy this off season and the Titans always play the Steelers tough. Defense will be key, as noted by the 35.5 O/U. Very excited to watch these two teams play tonight.
Georgia Tech (-5) -- $200 to win $181.82 at Sportsbook
Clemson v Georgia Tech
This game is just stupid. GTech goes up 21-0 in the first only to score 3 in the 2nd and none in the 3rd. Clemson is moving the bal at will.
This just sickens me. College football isn't even fun right now.
So add another loser to the list.
YTD: 11-14 (-$891.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-16 (-$1,016.05)
:hanging::guillotin:guillotin:guillotin:hanging::hanging::hanging:
This game is just stupid. GTech goes up 21-0 in the first only to score 3 in the 2nd and none in the 3rd. Clemson is moving the bal at will.
This just sickens me. College football isn't even fun right now.
So add another loser to the list.
YTD: 11-14 (-$891.05)
3 Teamers: 0-2 (-$125.00)
Overall: 11-16 (-$1,016.05)
:hanging::guillotin:guillotin:guillotin:hanging::hanging::hanging:
