WinningSystems
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I took a break from last week's college action, in order to regroup after a so-so start. I will cut down the number of plays in NCAAF in next few weeks, and hopefully that will help my NCAAF record to be just as good as it was last year and just as good (if not better) as my NFL record in last two years (NFL record standing at 30-18 this year).
North Texas -1.5 (3 units)
History:
North Texas is a different animal in conference games, and everybody should know that by now. It is nothing new that this team looks very bad in non conference games early in the season. Last year they were 0-4 after 4 games vs non-conference foes, only to win and cover the conference schedule, going 7-0 su and ats. They year before (2003) they went 1-3 vs non conference foes in first 4 weeks of the season, and then won 8 conference games, covering the spread in 5 of them. In 2002 they went 1-5 in non conference gaes and then they won 6 conf. games, and covered 4 of those 6 in the process. In total, this team has won 26 conference games in a row and covered 21 of them. That includes their road win over MTSU earlier this season, a team that was picked by many to win the Sun Belt conference this year. Troy State is 3-5 su and 2-6 ats all time in road games vs Sun Belt opponents, including a 0-3 ats season last yer when they failed to cover their three road conf. games by 14 pts on average. Just like North Texas, they lost lot of starters from last year's squad and I don't think they are any kind of pretender to win the Conference this year either. The Mean Green is stil the team to beat in the un bElt, and I just have to take them at this garbage price, as long as they keep winning those conference games.
Offense:
Both teams are led by two inexperienced quarterbacks and that lack of experience should hurt Troy's quarterback more, as he is playing on the road today. He is comming off of probably his worst game of the season. He's already been picked off 6 times this year. Daniel Meager is the starting QB for UNT and he will probably be asked to do the same thing he did against MTSU. Meaning: Trow the ball when only when you have to, avoid mistakes, and let Cobbs and Thomas (Two of the best Rushers in the nation last year) to do the rest of the job offensively.
Defense:
When you look at Troy's and UNT's stats on paper, you will see that Troy has some edge in both pass and run defense. But, the defense is much more than that. Defense is also CREATING TURNOVERS and in that stat department, North Teas has a HUGE edge over Troy. Troy Defense is stil looking to create its first turnover against a Div. IA team this season. In three games, they have 0 takeaways, while they comitted 10 turnovers (dead last in Div. I A)North Texas is ranked #17 in the nation in this stat, as they have 3 turnovers left than their opponents ytd. And if Cobbs and Thomas have the kind of game they are both capable of, then it could be a very long day for Troy's defense.
Intangibles:
This will be the first nationally televised UNT game in over 50 years and UNT will honor ttheir former Hall of Fame coach Hayden Fry before the kick-off. This is a 'must win, game for UNT as they go on a three game road trip afterwards. This is also a statement game for them, as Troy was their only real challenger for the conference title last year. For Troy State, this is a third straight road game and historically that means trouble in college football.
Coaching:
Not a complete miss-match but the UNT coaching stuff (unchanged from last year) is BY FAR the best in the conference. The head coach, the offensive and the defensive coordinators are with this team for a long time now. The head coach is probably the best coach the Sun Belt conference has ever seen and he led North Texas to four consecutive conference titles in last four years. He is also one of the best scouts in the nation today.
Systems:
UNT qualifies in one of my best systems, based especially on Running game, that is 42-13 ATS since '94. The system is 14-2 ATS in last 4 years. I prefere to keep this one for myself, and I hope you understand why. The system has been very profitable in the past, so take it for what is worth.
So once again, I'm taking UNT -1.5 and I will continue to take them at this price until they prove me that they can be beaten by a conference foe.
Good luck all,
WS
North Texas -1.5 (3 units)
History:
North Texas is a different animal in conference games, and everybody should know that by now. It is nothing new that this team looks very bad in non conference games early in the season. Last year they were 0-4 after 4 games vs non-conference foes, only to win and cover the conference schedule, going 7-0 su and ats. They year before (2003) they went 1-3 vs non conference foes in first 4 weeks of the season, and then won 8 conference games, covering the spread in 5 of them. In 2002 they went 1-5 in non conference gaes and then they won 6 conf. games, and covered 4 of those 6 in the process. In total, this team has won 26 conference games in a row and covered 21 of them. That includes their road win over MTSU earlier this season, a team that was picked by many to win the Sun Belt conference this year. Troy State is 3-5 su and 2-6 ats all time in road games vs Sun Belt opponents, including a 0-3 ats season last yer when they failed to cover their three road conf. games by 14 pts on average. Just like North Texas, they lost lot of starters from last year's squad and I don't think they are any kind of pretender to win the Conference this year either. The Mean Green is stil the team to beat in the un bElt, and I just have to take them at this garbage price, as long as they keep winning those conference games.
Offense:
Both teams are led by two inexperienced quarterbacks and that lack of experience should hurt Troy's quarterback more, as he is playing on the road today. He is comming off of probably his worst game of the season. He's already been picked off 6 times this year. Daniel Meager is the starting QB for UNT and he will probably be asked to do the same thing he did against MTSU. Meaning: Trow the ball when only when you have to, avoid mistakes, and let Cobbs and Thomas (Two of the best Rushers in the nation last year) to do the rest of the job offensively.
Defense:
When you look at Troy's and UNT's stats on paper, you will see that Troy has some edge in both pass and run defense. But, the defense is much more than that. Defense is also CREATING TURNOVERS and in that stat department, North Teas has a HUGE edge over Troy. Troy Defense is stil looking to create its first turnover against a Div. IA team this season. In three games, they have 0 takeaways, while they comitted 10 turnovers (dead last in Div. I A)North Texas is ranked #17 in the nation in this stat, as they have 3 turnovers left than their opponents ytd. And if Cobbs and Thomas have the kind of game they are both capable of, then it could be a very long day for Troy's defense.
Intangibles:
This will be the first nationally televised UNT game in over 50 years and UNT will honor ttheir former Hall of Fame coach Hayden Fry before the kick-off. This is a 'must win, game for UNT as they go on a three game road trip afterwards. This is also a statement game for them, as Troy was their only real challenger for the conference title last year. For Troy State, this is a third straight road game and historically that means trouble in college football.
Coaching:
Not a complete miss-match but the UNT coaching stuff (unchanged from last year) is BY FAR the best in the conference. The head coach, the offensive and the defensive coordinators are with this team for a long time now. The head coach is probably the best coach the Sun Belt conference has ever seen and he led North Texas to four consecutive conference titles in last four years. He is also one of the best scouts in the nation today.
Systems:
UNT qualifies in one of my best systems, based especially on Running game, that is 42-13 ATS since '94. The system is 14-2 ATS in last 4 years. I prefere to keep this one for myself, and I hope you understand why. The system has been very profitable in the past, so take it for what is worth.
So once again, I'm taking UNT -1.5 and I will continue to take them at this price until they prove me that they can be beaten by a conference foe.
Good luck all,
WS
