Big play

[PARGASPORT]

Kansas City +1.5

Denver played three straight road games, then went home to play Miami in high altitude of Denver and that game was crazy, with Denver coming back from behind to win, and now they are on the road again, in a stadium where they are 0-6 ATS as regular rest road faves after a win. Kansas City has a lot to prove after losing to Oakland, they would tie Broncos in their division with a win here, and they would avoid third straight sweep against them. 2nd straight week Denver is facing a team with top 10 passing defense and top 10 rushing offense. Last week they got lucky at home, this week they might be in trouble. Got more plays in both NFL and NCAAF. Happy Thanksgiving !

 

[Grindstone30]

Got to agree PargaS GL love it

 

[kid31]

Another handicapper I respect a lot said KC is his biggest play of November. Good enough for me with how the public will pound Denver. Good luck Parga and happy thanksgiving

 

[TomandJerry]

Darn, I am on the other side for 2u, got to buy back or put it in the first half play.

 

[TomandJerry]

Kansas City was asleep at the switch at Oakland, coming off five consecutive wins and covers.
The Chiefs started flat, awoke briefly to take the lead but by then the Raiders believed and finished the job.
The Chiefs will not be resting now that they have fallen out of first place and will bring their A-game presumably.
Kansas City players have to be sick of losing to the Broncos, something they have done five times in a row (2-3 ATS).
Besides the motivational factor, I do not imagine any hangover by K.C. from their last loss, particularly with a veteran coach like Andy Reid.
Bettors took Denver from a Pick to -1.5 and Alex Smith and friends are 10-2 ATS against defenses conceding over 60 percent or higher completion percentage.
Kansas City wins this one ???

 

[memphis]

 

[TomandJerry]

Line move to -2.5 now I believe.

 

[PARGASPORT]

Small plays:

Tampa Bay +4....Third straight roadie for Cincinnati. Usually a bad situation in NFL.
Jaguars +3....Battle of two bad teams, I will take the points with the home team.
New Orleans +5...Sounds crazy, but New Orleans is glad to hit the road. Pittsburgh is not as good as people think.
Jets +7...Miami 4-21 ATS vs Jets if they have a better record. NFL teams usually bounce back after a huge loss.

 

[WineO]

Line move to -2.5 now I believe.

havent seen that anywhere

 

[PARGASPORT]

Final card:

Kansas City +1.5 big
Tampa Bay +4....small
Jaguars +3....small
New Orleans +5...small
Jets +7....small
Atlanta +3 (buy 1) small

 

[Steiner69eR]

Thanks, Parga. Nice work yesterday, as per usual. BOL today.

 

[richporter]

just curious as far as size per game. your big play would be the equivalent or how many small ones? like 2 small games = 1 big for instance thanks in advance sorry for annoying question gluck to us today

 

[PARGASPORT]

Some trends/systems for all plays:
3rd str8 @, week 8-15, after 3+ pts win, 5+ pts cover, streak<7: 0-14 SU/ATS.(CIN->T.B)
H dogs of 2 pts and less, lost by 7-17 against same opponent in week 2 or later: 18-0 SU/ATS (K.C)
@ favorite, loser of 4 str8 or more including divisional prev.week 0-6 SU/ATS vs opp off 3+ str8 losses (NYG->JAX)
4-7 dogs of >3 pts vs 7-4 teams, 4-7 colder but not by 5+ games combined 5-0 SU/ATS (NWO)
9-2 not favored by 7 or more vs a 4-7 team 0-4 SU/ATS (ARI->ATL)
Miami @ F in weeks 3-16 against Jets 0-6 SU/ATS (MIA->NYJ)
*Courtesy of SDB

 

[PARGASPORT]

just curious as far as size per game. your big play would be the equivalent or how many small ones? like 2 small games = 1 big for instance thanks in advance sorry for annoying question gluck to us today

I do not make a huge difference between big and small plays. The average play is 3% of my bankroll. Small goes for about 2.5% and big for 3.5%. Very rarely I go over 3.5% or under 2.5%.

 

[WannaBet888]

I see KC -1 now and 70%+ is on NE.

 

[TonyQuotes]

love the KC play parga....GL

 

[TomandJerry]

That means BIG play $500, so SMALL play could be $400 and HUGH play $600.
or small bank roll we go SMALL $75, BIG $100 and HUGH $125.

Dogs day.

 

[b1shop]

stay hot my friend. you are on fire!

 

[bwhitey14]

already 3 wins. keep it up man

 

[DrHoops]

Good Job! Nice work so far. Let's get a sweep!