Big Lou's 2022 NFL thread (Please Don't Post Picks In This Thread)

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Friendly discussion here.
BigLouReturns said:
Week one wagers already on the books:

Patriots +3 - 1 unit
Falcons +3.5 - 1.5 units
Steelers +6.5 - 1.5 units
Seahawks +4.5 - 1.5 units
BigLouReturns said:
Less than three weeks away from the Hall of Fame game between the Jaguars and the Raiders. If you haven't started capping the NFL yet, you are so far behind...
Since Yankee just brought this up (window #96)- I am responding to your quote about "if I haven't starting capping yet, Im way behind".
My question is "How do you cap a game 2 months before the season starts not knowing who the QB is?

Cant you please tell us what kind of Magic Ball you have to make that statement? Would you do that for Canadian football or College football?

BigLouReturns said:
I don't know how other people run their threads but I don't offer up thoughts on anything. Thinking is bad when it comes to handicapping. (Window #74 and # 75 above^)

You also said something like "Thinking is bad when capping"? Do you roll dice for picks?

Combine those two posts and Im curious (as likely most of the readers you have might be)...
If you don't think when capping and you say you capped these four games 2 months ago, that are in the books already (as you said). How did you come up with plays that defy logic without knowing all thee capping details at game time that will have a large effect on the outcome?

?
 

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Rule No. 1 - S.T.A.S.H. - Stop Thinking and Start Handicapping. There are way too many people out there doing too much thinking and not enough handicapping.
Barely into the first full week of exhibition football and I see all sorts of "thinking" going in some of the writeups posted here. Stop thinking and start handicapping.:mad0012:
 

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This quote is from our delusional resident idiot Shemp/Joey/Gman.

"Why did you bet games not knowing who the QB is that is starting - and also I believe that you dont "CAP anything because you area TREND player.
No person gambling with real money a full 2 months before kickoff could ever come up with plays, not knowing who the QB is?"

Then how come I already have 5 bets on the books for week one? :grrr:
I also have my pick in for Willie99's two strike survivor pool as well.(y)
 

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Barely into the first full week of exhibition football and I see all sorts of "thinking" going in some of the writeups posted here. Stop thinking and start handicapping.:mad0012:
I found this in another thread. Perfect example of why thinking is dangerous.

"I hate going back to the show Hard Knocks but we saw what winning means to some of these players (Jamaal Williams speech is what I am referring to) and I will bank on team mentality tonight. I'm going Lions here to win."
 

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49ers under Kyle Shanahan:

Team is (40) in turnovers during the regular season.

2-21 SU & 1-22 ATS in games with a (2) T/O differential or better.

9-1 SU & 9-1 ATS in games with a +2 T/O differential or better.
All numbers below are since Shanahan became coach in 2017.

T/O ratio home w/ Jimmy G as the starter: E
T/O ratio home w/ any other QB: (24)

T/O ratio road w/Jimmy G as the starter: (4)
T/O ratio road w/ any other QB: (12)
 

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How do we know how many t/o the 49ers will have BEFORE the game starts. This is becoming all nonsense.
 

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You post that about the Lions AFTER the game.. YOU CANNOT bet on the first week of the season until that day.
 

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How do we know how many t/o the 49ers will have BEFORE the game starts. This is becoming all nonsense.
You seem to capitalize words the same way Shemp does. Are you the ghost of Joey G-man?
 

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How about some old school "forearm shiver" to get psyched for the upcoming season?

 

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Wk 12022
R3YAR2YARLSCRSRVSODStkStQBTeam@TeamStQBODStkHVSCHSRLSR2YAR3YALineScoreST3QT/OOL
10-613-311-61-00-1L1HAllenBuf@LARStaffordW5H1-00-112-510-69-7+2.5-1
12-47-910-70-20-1L1HJonesNE@MiaTagovailoaW1R2-06-09-810-65-11-2.5-3
14-211-58-90-30-1L1RJacksonBal@NYJFlaccoL3R4-00-14-132-147-9+7+4
8-812-49-7-11-01-0W2RTrubiskyPit@CinBurrowW1H2-02-010-74-11-12-14-6.5-6
7-911-59-80-10-1L8HRyanInd@HouMillsW1H0-20-14-134-1210-6+8+7.5
6-101-153-140-170-7L1RLawrenceJax@WasWentzL1H0-20-27-107-93-13-3.5-4.5
13-36-1010-71-03-0W1RLanceSF@ChiFieldsL1R1-01-06-118-88-8+6.5+6
9-74-11-19-82-03-0W1RHurtsPhi@DetGoffL2H1-03-03-13-15-113-12-1+4+3.5
13-312-49-83-02-0W3HWinstonNO@AtlMariotaL4H0-60-17-104-127-9+5.5+3
6-1011-58-90-40-1L3RBrissettCle@CarBakerW1H0-10-65-125-115-11-1+4.5
4-126-104-130-70-4L5HJonesNYG@TenTannehillL1H2-03-012-511-59-7-6-6.5
7-98-810-72-00-1W3HCarrLV@LACHerbertW3R1-01-09-87-95-11-3.5-4
13-313-313-40-10-2L1RRodgersGB@MinCousinsL2R3-01-08-97-910-6+2.5+1.5
12-414-212-51-06-0W7HMahomesKC@AZMurrayW2R0-10-511-68-85-10-1+3+3
7-911-513-44-00-1W1HBradyTB@DalPrescottL2R0-10-112-56-108-8+2+2.5
7-95-117-100-33-0W1RWilsonDen@SeaSmithW3R1-01-07-1012-411-5+5+3.5
 

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Rule No. 5 - 95/5: 95% of the time the public is wrong when it comes to gambling. I love it when I see lots of people on the opposite of a wager I'm on. (y)
 

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Three weeks til kickoff.(y)
 

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Sorry if some of you don't like my style but I'm here to post picks. Period. I'm not looking to have conversations, share ideas, tout myself, etc. What I did in the past, or what anyone else did in the past for that matter, means nothing because everyones record is 0-0 for the 2022 season, unless you wager on the preseason. . My week one picks are posted, even though some of you don't understand how I can handicap them so far ahead of time. The results will be in in a few weeks. Then it's on to week two.

That's how I roll.
 

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The best part of working all off-season gathering data and preparing for the upcoming season? I get to relax the last few weeks before kickoff.
1661041826945.png
 

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Rule No. 6 - Your record is not what it was last year, the year before or the year before that. Understand every year is a new season and your record is 0-0 until the games start being played. Anyone can and will have a bad season if you handicap for a long time. Reminiscing about what you did in the past is for losers.
 

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Looking ahead to week two I have the Giants, Saints, Cardinals and Titans, unless something drastic happens in week one.
 
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