Aloha Gang....First off I hope you all are in good health and spirits today....So far this week its been solid as my combined plays have gone 6W-2L heading into Saturday...Today I have another BIG GAME PLAY for us to again Bank Big Time On once more....These plays are the Best Plays I got, and so far this year, they have been continuing to be simply Second to None in All Major Sports combined....My BIG GAME PLAYS--YTD RECORD (CBB, Baseball, & FB)is currently 26W-7L-1P= 79%...In Football this year, my BGP's are 4W-2L= 66%...lets add another winner to this record and add more $$$ to our pockets with todays BIG GAME PLAY selection....LETS ROCK-N-ROLL HAWAIIAN STYLE BABY...AWWWRIIIIIIGHT!.
**"BIG GAME PLAY"---WAC UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:
HAWAII +4
One upset win and it seems everyone is all over this Utep squad who, btw is still the same team that went 2-11 last year and 2-10 the year before..Well, "Not so fast my friend", as Lee would say...I am not convinced that this Utep squad with new Coach Price has turned the corner just yet...I also do not believe that just because of last weeks upset win over Fresno St, that they deserve to be installed as a favorite over this Hawaii team who is still one of the top teams in the WAC Conf, and who also spanked this Utep team the past 3 years by an average of 33 pts...C'mon!
There are several KEYS to this game which I feel Hawaii will be able to use to their advantage and which should lead to them securing their 3rd straight Conf victory and their first road win of the season...There also exist several Key Situations and some information, that I will share, which I also feel works in the favor of Hawaii in this game....I will show you exactly why I feel that the wrong side is favored here and also, why it is that I feel Utep's current record and even their, so called "Big Upset" win over Fresno St last Saturday is really not anything to get all excited about...In the end, I believe that these KEY ADVANTAGES and SITUATIONAL EDGES, as well as, the other info/insights I will share on Hawaii, barring any unfavorable intangibles, will all tie in to work in favor of the Warriors getting another solid victory today.
KEY ADVANTAGE #1: Hawaii's Potent Passing Offense led by Sr Star QB Timmy Chang & Sr Star SB/PR Chad Owens. (two homegrown Hawaiians)
-Hawaii's potent Passing Offense led by Sr QB Timmy Chang, should be simply to much for this Utep Defense to have to deal with....Right now, Hawaii's Offense is clicking on all cyclinders, and QB Timmy Chang is currently having his BEST season ever in his career...Besides having the #1 Passing attack in the WAC Conf...Hawaii also currently ranks 3rd in the Nation in Passing Offense (346 ypg), behind only Purdue and TT, in this category....Hawaii is also ranked 14th in the nation in Scoring Off (37.3 ppg)....15th in the nation in Total Offense (449.3 ypg)....3rd in nation in pass completions per game with 29.0....7th in the nation in TD passes with 11....and tied with 7 other teams with the 2nd lowest Interceptions total, with ONLY 1 on the year...OUTSTANDING!.
QB Chang, again, having possibly his best season of his career so far, is currently ranked 4th in the nation in Total Off with 335 ypg....and is also 30th in Passing Efficiency with a 136.06 rating...Chang is completing around 60% of his passes and has an 11-1 TD/Int ratio.(in only 4 games)....In fact, Chang has thrown 178 passes before he gave up his ONE and ONLY interception this year, and is just 853 yards away from passing Ty Detmer as the NCAA's All Time Total Passing Yardage Leader...
This Warrior Offense in its last two games has been simply rolling, scoring a total of 78 pts and gaining 1,098 yards in the process.....Each game they have been racking up more and more yardage and points leading to two straight wins....Last week vs Nevada, the Warriors Offense rolled to a season high of 578 total yards and also scored a season high of 48 pts...This is exactly how this Offense was expected to produced from the start of the year, but they stubbled in the first two games, but have quickly found its grove in their last two....One main reason for this increase in Offensive production in the past two games was a result of Hawaii's running game getting a boost with the return of their Big 260 lb RB West Keliikipi back from a knee injury....This revived running game of the Warriors is another major Key that should give the Warriors another added advantage in this game...
Is Utep's Defense good enough to stop this potent Hawaii Passing game?.....Well, after deeper review of Utep's past opponents this year (not considering Div 1AA Weber or lowly NMST), I came to find some interesting stats on games they played vs quality Passing Offenses, with QBs possessing quality passing arms.....Before though, I would to state that Utep's Defensive stats was padded a lot due to their shut out wins vs Div 1AA Weber St 32-0 and lowly Sun Belt Conf team NMST 45-0 (I'm not fooled by this bogus Defensive stats)....In their game vs Arizona St's solid passing attack led by QB Walter, the Miner's Defense didn't fare well allowing 41 pts, 356 yards passing, 60% completion, and 4 TD's....In their other game vs another solid Passing Offensive team, in Boise St led by QB Zabransky, Utep allowed 392 yards passing, 70.3% completions, and 2 TDs....A similarity that Hawaii has with these teams, is that their Offense with its passing attack, is equally or more explosive then both Arizona St and Boise St's....Plus, QB Chang is never in short supply of receiving targets to spread the wealth around....This multitude of receiving targets will surely keep the Miners Defense more busy then they have ever been, and they will surely be test them all game long as well....Chang and Co should be able to move the ball on the Miners Defense without to much resistance and SB Owens should be able to beat their coverage wherever he decides to line up on Offense.
Speaking of weapons to distribute the rock to....5 receivers so far for the Warriors have DD catches and also DD ypc averages...His #1 target and go to guy is SB Owens, who currently leads the nation in receptions per a game (19.5), 4th in scoring (12 ppg), 8th in rec ypg (110.4), 9th in all purpose yards (160.5 avg), and 10th in punt returns (17.2 avg).....Together, this Warrior tandem should prove to be to much for the Miner's to incontain...This will also be the first time this year that Utep's Defense will be facing a passing attack like that of which the Warriors posses...Plus, it wont be as easy for them to dominate, harass, or pick off Chang like they was able to do against Fresno St's, struggling slower drop back passer, Pinegar.
Chang is having a stellar year so far, and he is really showing the nation that he can control his interceptions which haunted him in the past....This is his last year at the helm, and he is determined to make it his best season of his career...So far, he is doing just that....Utep's Defense does return 9 starters from last years squad, but this is the same personal that was torched by Chang and Co the last two seasons, and I dont see it getting easier for them, especially as the Warriors counter their experience with returning 12 of their own veterans on the Offensive side of the ball this year....I dont expect another Defensive effort like they had last week against Fresno to happen, but still, even if turnovers do occur....Hawaii has the QB and the Offense to get it back again.
-A closer look at Fresno St's Offense....
Last weeks Big upset win over once nationally ranked Fresno St team was a huge accomplishment for this rebuilding Utep Football program....but I wouldn't get so excited about the fact that the Miner's Defense was able to shut down QB Pinegar and hold the Bulldog passing game to just 126 yards, while also intercepting him twice, one resulting in a TD by a DT off a tipped pass....For one thing, the Miners Defense was not up against an explosive Bulldog Offense or a Top Passing QB by any means...Fresno's offensive Strength this year is in their Run game, and their Weakness this year is in their Passing game due mainly to very young and inexperienced WRs....In fact the Bulldog Passing Offense has struggle for most of the year, particularly in its last two games....In their lost to La Tech, QB Pinegar completed just 13 passes for ONLY 104 yards, 46.4%, while again giving up 2 ints....Currently, the Bulldogs Passing Offense ranks near the bottom of the nation with the 10th worst air attack....In the pass happy WAC Conf they rank 2nd worst, in front of Rice, in Passing Offense with ONLY a 148.2 ypg average....They are also ranked 8th, in the Wac, in Total Passing yards with only 741yards this year.....In addition, Fresno St's Passing Offense has only produced 5 TDs via the pass, and has been intercepted the most with 10 give aways on the year....Fresno's QB Pinegar, who many were expecting to have his best year, has been completely doing the opposite...He has only completed 54.3% of his passes, and has a QB rating of just 96.2...and it is because one he sucks, and second is because he lacks experience and consistant talent in the receiving department...not to mention that his O-Line, which was the weak link in this Offense last year, hasnt been doing their job in protecting him, allowing 9 sacks on the year, with 5 of them coming in the last two games..
-Hawaii's O-Line....
Hawaii's Offensive Line, so far this year, has been pass protecting and run blocking very well....They have only allowed 7 QB sacks on the year and are a big reason for why Chang has only had 1 int, while also amassing a **** load of passing yards in the process....Hawaii's O-Line is another strength of this Offense as they returned all 5 starters from last season's top ranked Passing Offense.....In this game, they should be able to control and win the battle in the trenches vs Utep's DL Unit which is on the smaller side...and who will be much weaker without starting DL Osborn, who suffered an inj in the 1st half of last weeks game, and also the loss of starting DE Givens who did not play against Fresno...
I think that Utep's last two wins over two struggling and poor Passing Offensive teams (NMST & Fresno St), will make them a little overconfident and inadequately prepare them for what they will have to defend against this Saturday...If Chang gets hot, this game could get ugly very early....Utep's previous games this year against potent Offensive attacks, has already shown how Utep's Defense struggled to contain them from racking up a lot of yards both on the ground and more so through the air, resulting in a lot of points scored...Today Chang and Owens should be able to work this Defense over as well, and put up a lot of points also in the process..
KEY ADVANTAGE #2: Hawaii's Run Offense led by RB's Brewster and Big 260 lb RB Keliikipi...
Thats right Gang I said it...Hawaii's running game will be a Key factor in this one for them today....With the return of Hawaii's other main RB in 260 lb West Keliikipi, the last two games, Hawaii has seen their running game go from averaging just 17 yards per game, to 54 ypg, to now averaging over 100 yards rushing per a game...Hawaii in their last two games have rushed for 128 yards on 23 carries, 5.6 ypc vs Tulsa...Then vs Nevada, Hawaii rushed for 251 yards on 24 carries averaging 10.5 ypc...In fact, Hawaii's Run Offense gained more yards on the ground then both of these opponents...128 (5.7 ypc) to 59 (1.7 ypc) and then last weeks 251(10.5 ypc) to 233 (4.2 ypc)....Solid!
I have stated it many times before that Hawaii does have an effective Running Offense and when they use it in the mix more, it makes their whole Offense that much more potent and that much more harder for opponents to figure out, let alone try to stop completely....In the first two games, Hawaii struggles on Offense were primarily due to RB Keliikipi, being out with a knee injury, thus leaving the 5' 6" Brewster to do all the running, blocking, and receiving out of the backfield...But upon Keliikipi's return to the lineup and shared duties in the backfield, the Warrior Offense began to roll up the yardages almost at will....Keliikipi not only brings to this Offense a bruising runner, he also provides Chang another lineman size pass blocker to protect him...He also has been utilized as another receiver out of the backfield with solid results as well...With these two RBs being used in the mix, opponents Defenses have to now be aware of yet another threat that this Offense brings, and this is what Hawaii has been using to keep Defense honest....Hawaii also utilizes Brewster and Keliikipi to counter defensives schemes that are setup to blitz Chang, as well as, against schemes that call for the Defense to drop 7 or even 8 in pass coverage...The Running game of Hawaii is vitally important to keeping the Defenses off balanced, and so far, since the return of Keliikipi they have been able to do just that, allowing them to not only rack up a lot of yards through the air but on the ground as well..
-Example of their effectiveness...
Hawaii, although ranking last in the WAC in rushing, is ranked #2 in the nation with 5.9 ypc...Only Texas rushes for more yards per a carry with 6.5 ypc...This year, RB Brewster is averaging 72 yards per game, 9.9 ypc, and has 4 TDs..He had his best game last week vs Nevada where he rushed for 150 yards on just 9 carries for a whopping 16.66 ypc average.....RB Keliikipi (in only 2 games) has averaged 47.5 yards per game, 7.3 ypc, with 1 TD...And again, since his return, the Warriors has increased their rushing average from 17 yards per game, to 54 yards per game, to now 103.2 ypg.
Utep, besides giving up a lot of yards through the air to both Boise St and Arizona St, has also given up 169 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc to Arizona St....and 214 yards rushing, 4.5 ypc to Boise St....and lastly in last weeks upset win, they gave up 195 yards rushing, 5 ypc to Fresno St...Now, ask yourself, did Utep really play a solid Defensive game like everyone is saying they did, or did Fresno St and its struggling passing game with Pinegar just simply continue to struggle like they have done all year....Whatever your answer is, I still feel that Hawaii's running game will also find a lot of success to compliment their passing attack, and this will not be good news for s Utep's Defense, who know that they have already been exposed by two previous explosive Offensive attacks.
The bottom line here is if you let the Warriors run, they will....trying to figure out when that might be, is something that only Hawaii knows...
KEY FACTOR #3: Hawaii's Defense Bending but not Breaking...& Uteps Offense is not strong enough to Break it completely....
Ok, I am not going into to much on this part of the matchup...primarily because we all know that Hawaii's Defense is not a brick wall and wont shut out any opponents from scoring points....But, what I will say is improvement in some areas have been made in the last two games, as compared to the first two games...Still, Hawaii wins its games with the Offense NOT with its Defense....In fact, almost every team in the WAC Conf relies on its Offense to get it done....The WAC is a pass happy offense first Conf (with the exceptions of Rice)...it always has been and it seems that it always will be....Both of these teams Defenses this year is suspect, but Hawaii has been a lot better in its Pass Defense and this is where I see them having a chance at disrupting Utep's balanced Offensive attack.
One of the Keys to Hawaii's Defense Bending and not Breaking, is the solid play that they are getting out of their DE's...6'5" 265 lb Jr DE Mel Purcell (who many feel is just as athletic and talented as last years Def WAC Player of the Year LaBoy) has been an animal in opponents backfield, leading the team in tackles for loss with 7.5, 3 sacks, and 4 QB hurries....Also finding a lot of success pressuring the QB has been 6" 7 275 lb DE Tony "the Nigerian Nightmare" Akpan, who has so far been out beating the OT's that he has faced....His pressence and play on the outside has been solid and has helped to disrupt Hawaii's last two opponents passing game...Tony returned to the lineup only in Hawaii's last two games as well, after serving out his suspensions, and it has definately been a big positive...Hawaii's Defense has talling 9 sacks in the last two games can be attribute partly to these two guys causing havoc from the outside....Today, I see these two again being major factors in disrupting Utep's Passing game lead by Soph QB Palmer, who is averaging 203 ypg this year...As their play the past two games has shown, they can create a lot of problems for opponents Offenses as well as come up with the big plays which the defense definately needs to do more of.....Purcell and Akpan in this game will have the advantage against Utep's Weakness on Offense, their OL (only 2 starters returned) primarily at the OT positions, where they had to replace their stud OT, and 4th rd draft pick, Darilek....Utep's lack of a talent and depth in its offensive tackles is a big reason why they have given up 12 sacks so far on the year...Today, against Hawaii's two talented DE's they should continue to struggle....Hawaii will blitz Utep today and I see them coming up with no less than 3 sacks on the day...
Other positive Defensive stats for Hawaii since starting 0-2...
-Hawaii's Def has forced 9 TO's(6 ints and 3 fumbles) in 4 games which have lead to 27 pts...
-Hawaii also improved in limiting opponents on 3rd down conversions, improving from 64% in the first two games, to only 43% in the last two..
-Hawaii in its past two games has averaged 46 pts and only averaged giving up 21 pts to their opponents...A turn around from its first two games where Hawaii averaged 28 pts, while giving up an average of 38 pts to their opponents.
Take these stats as you will, but their is some positive results coming from the Def, even with all the inj's and losses they had....Still, Utep should get some points off this Defense today, but they shouldnt break today not against this Utep Offense which is led by the shittier Palmer brother at QB, who is ranked 93rd in passing efficiency and 80th in total Off in the nation, and who as well is only completing 53% of his passes with an 3 to 6 ratio...Utep has some fire power to bend this Warrior Defense, but I dont feel they have enough talent to completely break it...
SITUATIONAL EDGE: UTEP HANGOVER?
Utep is coming off of a Big Upset win over Fresno St last Saturday, and I believe that they will suffer a bit with getting refocused completely for this Hawaii team....Last week Utep had the situational edge on their side as they caught a Fresno St team off of a heartbreaking 4th Q loss to La Tech, which completely burst their bubble and affected their focus and motivation going into their next game against Utep...Fresno St already emotionally drained, yet expected to win easily against Utep, a Conf bottom dweller, was caught by a motivated and confident Minor team off of a big win over their rival at home.
This week, in my opinion, Hawaii now has the situational edges on their side, as Utep will most likely be suffering the hangover effects from their Big Upset of Fresno St...I expect that regaining complete focus will be harder with all the premature talk about them going to a bowl game this year....Hell, there is even talk about them also possibly winning the WAC Title this season.....I say, NOT SO FAST MY AX WHELDING MINER FRIENDS!...LOL....Anyways, when bottom dwelling teams like Utep win outright as huge DD dogs, they usually dont respond to well in the following game, and especially when they are installed as a Favorite....In this situations, I have found it to be rather profitable situation to fade them in their next game....This year, a situation similar to this one occurred when Troy St pulled a Big Upset over nationally ranked Missouri as a DD dog....This was Troy's biggest win in their schools history and I knew that they would definately suffer from a Hangover, which would be made worst if they become a favorite in their next game....Well, sure enough, the following week they were installed as a 10 point road favorite over lowly NMST, and I faded them taking the Aggies who won outright....I am not believing the talk that Price can control this teams emotions enough to regain complete focus on Hawaii....These young players only won 2 game in each of the last 2 seasons...and beating, the once nationally ranked, Fresno St in Fresno is to HUGE of a win for them to simply erase out of their minds completely...and Vegas making them favored in this game wont help with their focus on the Warriors either.
Another reason why this may also be a tough spot for Utep, is due to this being their 4th straight week in which they will be playing in a big game....It is not easy and a lot to expect that young players be able to raise their emotions back up after expending all of it in the previous game...And it is almost impossible to expect Utep's players to be able to do this for 4 consecutive straight week....First Utep had to get up for a big game at home vs nationally ranked Boise St...They faught hard in that game, leading in the first half, only to lose again in the end.....The following week they had another big game against their schools rival in NMST, which they needed to get up for again...Then they had to do it again in another big game vs Fresno St....Now, they are expected to again get up for a Hawaii team who they are already favored to beat...See my point?...This is simply a real tough 4 week stretch for Utep emotionally...and coming in off a Big Upset win last week just makes this weeks game with Hawaii that much more difficult a spot for them to have to deal with....Hawaii should benefit from Uteps emotionally draining past 3 weeks and as well the HANGOVER EFFECT fromtheir Big Upset.
*SOME OTHER INFO, INSIGHTS....
-Hawaii an Underdog, WTF...Hawaii the past 3 seasons has spanked this Utep team by an average of 33 pts...while also being an 18.5 and 27.5 pt Favorite the last two years is now a 4 pt dog...Only thing Utep has done in the past two years is upset Fresno St...Evenso, this is only their 4th win in their last 30 games over a Div 1 team...The past two seasons, they had only 2 wins over a Div 1 team...This year they have equalled that amount, and this makes them worthy of being installed as a FAVORITE....I dont think so!....I also think the Vegas Boys are setting the public up in this one to jump all over Utep because of Coach Price and their Upset of Fresno St last week...Price is a good coach, but it will take a few more big wins before I will back Utep as a favorite over anyone...Hawaii is hurting on Defense, but this team has still gone to two straight bowl games and has put together 3 straight 9+ win seasons...I am not buying it!
-Homecoming Week for Utep.....I think that this means nothing in way of motivation for Utep, let alone any team in the WAC Conf....In College ball Rival games are bigger and Utep had theirs against NMST....Also, who does Utep has anyway that will come back to make this game special for them...?...Uteps HC record in the Sun Bowl is only 12-29....and they lost last years HC game to La Tech 38-35....Utep's record vs Hawaii in 5 HC games is just 1-4.
-Hawaii's Early Losses...As for Hawaii's first two losses to Fl Atl and Rice...Well, Hawaii simply took Fl Atl for an easy win and wasnt at all motivated because of all the hype they were getting in the off season, mainly due to Timmy Chang..and it bit them in the ASS, nothing really else to say in that one as Hawaii had the game won, until the last min in the game where Fl Atl got a TD on 4th down play sending it to OT....As for the loss to Rice, well Hawaii has never done well against teams that run triple option attacks...and not many in the nation do as well....Also, Rice has a top nationally ranked running game year in and year out, so it was not a bad loss...Still though, Hawaii did have a chance to secure a victory, but again fell short one play, missing a Rice turnover late in the fourth when they had the lead.....You know what happen next.....Their are many factors and situations that went in to those two losses, besides playing terrible on Defense....It was a combination of Injuries on the Off and Def, a road game, the upset loss to Fl At, etc..that played parts in the losses....Hawaii still has injuries on Def, and has rebounded from the first two losses with solid wins, and that should not be overlooked, despite who they played.
-Hawaii's Road Woes and poor ATS away from home....Ok, one of the things that have contributed to this poor ATS showing occurred mostly in the pre-Jones era, when Hawaii's travel plans were just as much the cause of them losing as they were....The travel planning was terrible and it didnt address the importance of getting the guys their with enough time to recover from the long flight....In the past, the plans were to simply get them their right before the game and then back immediately after....When Jones took over, one thing he knew that needed to be changed for Hawaii to be a successful program is them being competitive on the road, thus he immediately changed the travel plans that allowed enough time for the players to get adequate rest and recouperation from the long trip...So far the results under Jones has been slow, but it is improving, and the players have been more competitive and able to play at a higher level in games on the road, then they did in the past...The Warriors left the Rock on Weds giving them enough time to get over any jetlag....
As for the poor ATS record, well Hawaii, like most teams never do well on the road as a Conf road favorite, and I think you all know that it is hard for most teams to win on the road in this role....But, in todays game, Hawaii is a DOG, not a FAV...and if you look back at the last two seasons when Hawaii was a DOG on the road, you will see that they have a 3-3 ATS record in this role, winning 2 of them SU and just falling short of another SU win by 3 pts to BYU as a 11.5 pt dog in Provo....Also, if you look at two of the other games where Hawaii lost as a Road Dog both SU and ATS, you will see that it was against USC (CO-National Champs) last year, and at Boise St (WAC Champs) the year before...I think that it is safe to assume that most teams in the nation would also lose playing these two top teams on their fields....
-Important game for Hawaii?....If you want to know if this one is important to Hawaii and Coach Jones...Well, besides being important for Hawaii's WAC Title and Bowl hopes,...this game is also important because it will have an impact on Hawaii's recruiting....How you may be wondering?...Because Coach Price is a Big recruiter of Hawaii players, and Jones knows this...He also has several assistants with Hawaii ties, in Off Coord Price, who was a GA coach for Hawaii in 1991...and DL Coach Malloe, who was an All Star HS player from Hawaii, who played at Washington....With a win, Price can use it against Hawaii in their recruiting of Hawaii local talent....When Price was at Wash St he recruited heavily in Hawaii....In fact 3 of Hawaii's WRs was heavily recruited by Price, but Jones was able to sway them to stay with his program that will highlight them in the Offense.....Price though, was able to steal away one of Hawaii's Top HS QB's ever, who btw also played at the same HS as Timmy Chang and who Chang replaced upon his graduation, in Jason Gessar, now playing for the Tennessee Titans...Jones knows that in order to be successful, he needs to do everything possible to make sure that Hawaii's local talent stays home, and winning games like these against recruiters of Hawaii's local athletes is very important...and I am expecting Coach Jones to treat this game with that in mine.
-Experience goes a long way....Lastly, Hawaii has many Key Veterans in Sr QB Chang, Sr SB Owens, Sr RB's Brewster, Sr Keliikipi, WR Komine, OL Moanoa, DL Fuga, DL Faga, CB Elimimian, and PK Ayat...these guys especially have road experience, which is important in this game as they are the heartbeat of this team...I feel that the team will draw upon them and follow their lead, especially QB Chang and SB Owens leadership....Seeing how these guys have the experience in playing in bigger venues and in bigger games, like the LA Collesium being one of them, they will not be rattled at all by playing in the Sun Bowl and against this Utep team who they have spanked the past 3 seasons....The confidence, experience, and talent that these Hawaii's Sr veterans on Offense have will be a big positive in carrying and motivating the rest of the team in this game today.
*SOME STATS AND TRENDS:
-Hawaii is 7-3 SU vs the Miners since 1992.
-Hawaii won the last 3 games, the 3 seasons, by an average of 33.3 pts.
-Utep is 0-5 ATS vs teams allowing 200 or more rushing yards per game.
-Utep is 1-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
-Utep Home ATS record last year was 2-3.
-Utep is currently averaging less Total Yards per game on Offense, then last year average.
-Utep is currently averaging less running yards per game, then last years average.
-Hawaii was 3-3 ATS as a Road Dog the last two seasons...(losing at USC, Boise St, and UNLV)(winning at BYU, Fresno St, and La Tech).
-Hawaii is 7-5 as an away Dog under HC Jones.
-Hawaii is 8-2 ATS as a Dog off BB SU wins under Jones.
-Utep in the last two seasons has never been a FAV at home vs Div 1 opponents.
*Ok Gang...I think thats enough info backing my play on the Warriors in this game...Sorry so much, but when it comes to Hawaii, it is easy for me to provide a lot of info and insights on them....The Warriors win games on the play of its Offense, and currently it is clicking on all cyclinders at QB, RB, WR, and OL....The Warriors Key position players are also Sr veterans, who are having stellar breakout years so far, and their play, confidence, and experience will help to carry this team to a win....Utep is headed in the right direction under Coach Price, but I feel they are still one to two years and players away from becoming a solid threat for the WAC title...Their home field isnt much of a factor and many of the current Warrior players were on this team that won here 31-6 back in 2002, as an 18.5 pt favorite...Today they are the underdogs and this lack of respect, must not be sitting to good with them.....Utep hasnt proven to me yet to be worthy of being installed a favorite over Hawaii, and last weeks Big upset win over Fresno St may work against them as Favorites in this game today.....This is a Big game for both programs, and in Big games, I rather side with the more talented veterans in Key positions....Hawaii has an overwhelming advantage on the Offensive side of the ball, while Utep holds a slight edge on the Defensive side...But again, this is the WAC, where Offense wins games..and I definately like my chances with the #3 ranked Offense in the Nation, led by the soon to be most prolific passer in NCAA Football history QB Timmy Chang....Hawaii holds its WAC Title destiny in its own hands, and Timmy Chang is the major key to them getting their....I like the Warriors to win this one outright, but will take the generous points and play this as a BIG GAME PLAY---WAC CONF UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....GO WARRIORS!
GL ALL and LETS GO GET EM!...ALOHA CC..:toast:
**"BIG GAME PLAY"---WAC UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH PLAY ON:
HAWAII +4
One upset win and it seems everyone is all over this Utep squad who, btw is still the same team that went 2-11 last year and 2-10 the year before..Well, "Not so fast my friend", as Lee would say...I am not convinced that this Utep squad with new Coach Price has turned the corner just yet...I also do not believe that just because of last weeks upset win over Fresno St, that they deserve to be installed as a favorite over this Hawaii team who is still one of the top teams in the WAC Conf, and who also spanked this Utep team the past 3 years by an average of 33 pts...C'mon!
There are several KEYS to this game which I feel Hawaii will be able to use to their advantage and which should lead to them securing their 3rd straight Conf victory and their first road win of the season...There also exist several Key Situations and some information, that I will share, which I also feel works in the favor of Hawaii in this game....I will show you exactly why I feel that the wrong side is favored here and also, why it is that I feel Utep's current record and even their, so called "Big Upset" win over Fresno St last Saturday is really not anything to get all excited about...In the end, I believe that these KEY ADVANTAGES and SITUATIONAL EDGES, as well as, the other info/insights I will share on Hawaii, barring any unfavorable intangibles, will all tie in to work in favor of the Warriors getting another solid victory today.
KEY ADVANTAGE #1: Hawaii's Potent Passing Offense led by Sr Star QB Timmy Chang & Sr Star SB/PR Chad Owens. (two homegrown Hawaiians)
-Hawaii's potent Passing Offense led by Sr QB Timmy Chang, should be simply to much for this Utep Defense to have to deal with....Right now, Hawaii's Offense is clicking on all cyclinders, and QB Timmy Chang is currently having his BEST season ever in his career...Besides having the #1 Passing attack in the WAC Conf...Hawaii also currently ranks 3rd in the Nation in Passing Offense (346 ypg), behind only Purdue and TT, in this category....Hawaii is also ranked 14th in the nation in Scoring Off (37.3 ppg)....15th in the nation in Total Offense (449.3 ypg)....3rd in nation in pass completions per game with 29.0....7th in the nation in TD passes with 11....and tied with 7 other teams with the 2nd lowest Interceptions total, with ONLY 1 on the year...OUTSTANDING!.
QB Chang, again, having possibly his best season of his career so far, is currently ranked 4th in the nation in Total Off with 335 ypg....and is also 30th in Passing Efficiency with a 136.06 rating...Chang is completing around 60% of his passes and has an 11-1 TD/Int ratio.(in only 4 games)....In fact, Chang has thrown 178 passes before he gave up his ONE and ONLY interception this year, and is just 853 yards away from passing Ty Detmer as the NCAA's All Time Total Passing Yardage Leader...
This Warrior Offense in its last two games has been simply rolling, scoring a total of 78 pts and gaining 1,098 yards in the process.....Each game they have been racking up more and more yardage and points leading to two straight wins....Last week vs Nevada, the Warriors Offense rolled to a season high of 578 total yards and also scored a season high of 48 pts...This is exactly how this Offense was expected to produced from the start of the year, but they stubbled in the first two games, but have quickly found its grove in their last two....One main reason for this increase in Offensive production in the past two games was a result of Hawaii's running game getting a boost with the return of their Big 260 lb RB West Keliikipi back from a knee injury....This revived running game of the Warriors is another major Key that should give the Warriors another added advantage in this game...
Is Utep's Defense good enough to stop this potent Hawaii Passing game?.....Well, after deeper review of Utep's past opponents this year (not considering Div 1AA Weber or lowly NMST), I came to find some interesting stats on games they played vs quality Passing Offenses, with QBs possessing quality passing arms.....Before though, I would to state that Utep's Defensive stats was padded a lot due to their shut out wins vs Div 1AA Weber St 32-0 and lowly Sun Belt Conf team NMST 45-0 (I'm not fooled by this bogus Defensive stats)....In their game vs Arizona St's solid passing attack led by QB Walter, the Miner's Defense didn't fare well allowing 41 pts, 356 yards passing, 60% completion, and 4 TD's....In their other game vs another solid Passing Offensive team, in Boise St led by QB Zabransky, Utep allowed 392 yards passing, 70.3% completions, and 2 TDs....A similarity that Hawaii has with these teams, is that their Offense with its passing attack, is equally or more explosive then both Arizona St and Boise St's....Plus, QB Chang is never in short supply of receiving targets to spread the wealth around....This multitude of receiving targets will surely keep the Miners Defense more busy then they have ever been, and they will surely be test them all game long as well....Chang and Co should be able to move the ball on the Miners Defense without to much resistance and SB Owens should be able to beat their coverage wherever he decides to line up on Offense.
Speaking of weapons to distribute the rock to....5 receivers so far for the Warriors have DD catches and also DD ypc averages...His #1 target and go to guy is SB Owens, who currently leads the nation in receptions per a game (19.5), 4th in scoring (12 ppg), 8th in rec ypg (110.4), 9th in all purpose yards (160.5 avg), and 10th in punt returns (17.2 avg).....Together, this Warrior tandem should prove to be to much for the Miner's to incontain...This will also be the first time this year that Utep's Defense will be facing a passing attack like that of which the Warriors posses...Plus, it wont be as easy for them to dominate, harass, or pick off Chang like they was able to do against Fresno St's, struggling slower drop back passer, Pinegar.
Chang is having a stellar year so far, and he is really showing the nation that he can control his interceptions which haunted him in the past....This is his last year at the helm, and he is determined to make it his best season of his career...So far, he is doing just that....Utep's Defense does return 9 starters from last years squad, but this is the same personal that was torched by Chang and Co the last two seasons, and I dont see it getting easier for them, especially as the Warriors counter their experience with returning 12 of their own veterans on the Offensive side of the ball this year....I dont expect another Defensive effort like they had last week against Fresno to happen, but still, even if turnovers do occur....Hawaii has the QB and the Offense to get it back again.
-A closer look at Fresno St's Offense....
Last weeks Big upset win over once nationally ranked Fresno St team was a huge accomplishment for this rebuilding Utep Football program....but I wouldn't get so excited about the fact that the Miner's Defense was able to shut down QB Pinegar and hold the Bulldog passing game to just 126 yards, while also intercepting him twice, one resulting in a TD by a DT off a tipped pass....For one thing, the Miners Defense was not up against an explosive Bulldog Offense or a Top Passing QB by any means...Fresno's offensive Strength this year is in their Run game, and their Weakness this year is in their Passing game due mainly to very young and inexperienced WRs....In fact the Bulldog Passing Offense has struggle for most of the year, particularly in its last two games....In their lost to La Tech, QB Pinegar completed just 13 passes for ONLY 104 yards, 46.4%, while again giving up 2 ints....Currently, the Bulldogs Passing Offense ranks near the bottom of the nation with the 10th worst air attack....In the pass happy WAC Conf they rank 2nd worst, in front of Rice, in Passing Offense with ONLY a 148.2 ypg average....They are also ranked 8th, in the Wac, in Total Passing yards with only 741yards this year.....In addition, Fresno St's Passing Offense has only produced 5 TDs via the pass, and has been intercepted the most with 10 give aways on the year....Fresno's QB Pinegar, who many were expecting to have his best year, has been completely doing the opposite...He has only completed 54.3% of his passes, and has a QB rating of just 96.2...and it is because one he sucks, and second is because he lacks experience and consistant talent in the receiving department...not to mention that his O-Line, which was the weak link in this Offense last year, hasnt been doing their job in protecting him, allowing 9 sacks on the year, with 5 of them coming in the last two games..
-Hawaii's O-Line....
Hawaii's Offensive Line, so far this year, has been pass protecting and run blocking very well....They have only allowed 7 QB sacks on the year and are a big reason for why Chang has only had 1 int, while also amassing a **** load of passing yards in the process....Hawaii's O-Line is another strength of this Offense as they returned all 5 starters from last season's top ranked Passing Offense.....In this game, they should be able to control and win the battle in the trenches vs Utep's DL Unit which is on the smaller side...and who will be much weaker without starting DL Osborn, who suffered an inj in the 1st half of last weeks game, and also the loss of starting DE Givens who did not play against Fresno...
I think that Utep's last two wins over two struggling and poor Passing Offensive teams (NMST & Fresno St), will make them a little overconfident and inadequately prepare them for what they will have to defend against this Saturday...If Chang gets hot, this game could get ugly very early....Utep's previous games this year against potent Offensive attacks, has already shown how Utep's Defense struggled to contain them from racking up a lot of yards both on the ground and more so through the air, resulting in a lot of points scored...Today Chang and Owens should be able to work this Defense over as well, and put up a lot of points also in the process..
KEY ADVANTAGE #2: Hawaii's Run Offense led by RB's Brewster and Big 260 lb RB Keliikipi...
Thats right Gang I said it...Hawaii's running game will be a Key factor in this one for them today....With the return of Hawaii's other main RB in 260 lb West Keliikipi, the last two games, Hawaii has seen their running game go from averaging just 17 yards per game, to 54 ypg, to now averaging over 100 yards rushing per a game...Hawaii in their last two games have rushed for 128 yards on 23 carries, 5.6 ypc vs Tulsa...Then vs Nevada, Hawaii rushed for 251 yards on 24 carries averaging 10.5 ypc...In fact, Hawaii's Run Offense gained more yards on the ground then both of these opponents...128 (5.7 ypc) to 59 (1.7 ypc) and then last weeks 251(10.5 ypc) to 233 (4.2 ypc)....Solid!
I have stated it many times before that Hawaii does have an effective Running Offense and when they use it in the mix more, it makes their whole Offense that much more potent and that much more harder for opponents to figure out, let alone try to stop completely....In the first two games, Hawaii struggles on Offense were primarily due to RB Keliikipi, being out with a knee injury, thus leaving the 5' 6" Brewster to do all the running, blocking, and receiving out of the backfield...But upon Keliikipi's return to the lineup and shared duties in the backfield, the Warrior Offense began to roll up the yardages almost at will....Keliikipi not only brings to this Offense a bruising runner, he also provides Chang another lineman size pass blocker to protect him...He also has been utilized as another receiver out of the backfield with solid results as well...With these two RBs being used in the mix, opponents Defenses have to now be aware of yet another threat that this Offense brings, and this is what Hawaii has been using to keep Defense honest....Hawaii also utilizes Brewster and Keliikipi to counter defensives schemes that are setup to blitz Chang, as well as, against schemes that call for the Defense to drop 7 or even 8 in pass coverage...The Running game of Hawaii is vitally important to keeping the Defenses off balanced, and so far, since the return of Keliikipi they have been able to do just that, allowing them to not only rack up a lot of yards through the air but on the ground as well..
-Example of their effectiveness...
Hawaii, although ranking last in the WAC in rushing, is ranked #2 in the nation with 5.9 ypc...Only Texas rushes for more yards per a carry with 6.5 ypc...This year, RB Brewster is averaging 72 yards per game, 9.9 ypc, and has 4 TDs..He had his best game last week vs Nevada where he rushed for 150 yards on just 9 carries for a whopping 16.66 ypc average.....RB Keliikipi (in only 2 games) has averaged 47.5 yards per game, 7.3 ypc, with 1 TD...And again, since his return, the Warriors has increased their rushing average from 17 yards per game, to 54 yards per game, to now 103.2 ypg.
Utep, besides giving up a lot of yards through the air to both Boise St and Arizona St, has also given up 169 yards rushing, 4.0 ypc to Arizona St....and 214 yards rushing, 4.5 ypc to Boise St....and lastly in last weeks upset win, they gave up 195 yards rushing, 5 ypc to Fresno St...Now, ask yourself, did Utep really play a solid Defensive game like everyone is saying they did, or did Fresno St and its struggling passing game with Pinegar just simply continue to struggle like they have done all year....Whatever your answer is, I still feel that Hawaii's running game will also find a lot of success to compliment their passing attack, and this will not be good news for s Utep's Defense, who know that they have already been exposed by two previous explosive Offensive attacks.
The bottom line here is if you let the Warriors run, they will....trying to figure out when that might be, is something that only Hawaii knows...
KEY FACTOR #3: Hawaii's Defense Bending but not Breaking...& Uteps Offense is not strong enough to Break it completely....
Ok, I am not going into to much on this part of the matchup...primarily because we all know that Hawaii's Defense is not a brick wall and wont shut out any opponents from scoring points....But, what I will say is improvement in some areas have been made in the last two games, as compared to the first two games...Still, Hawaii wins its games with the Offense NOT with its Defense....In fact, almost every team in the WAC Conf relies on its Offense to get it done....The WAC is a pass happy offense first Conf (with the exceptions of Rice)...it always has been and it seems that it always will be....Both of these teams Defenses this year is suspect, but Hawaii has been a lot better in its Pass Defense and this is where I see them having a chance at disrupting Utep's balanced Offensive attack.
One of the Keys to Hawaii's Defense Bending and not Breaking, is the solid play that they are getting out of their DE's...6'5" 265 lb Jr DE Mel Purcell (who many feel is just as athletic and talented as last years Def WAC Player of the Year LaBoy) has been an animal in opponents backfield, leading the team in tackles for loss with 7.5, 3 sacks, and 4 QB hurries....Also finding a lot of success pressuring the QB has been 6" 7 275 lb DE Tony "the Nigerian Nightmare" Akpan, who has so far been out beating the OT's that he has faced....His pressence and play on the outside has been solid and has helped to disrupt Hawaii's last two opponents passing game...Tony returned to the lineup only in Hawaii's last two games as well, after serving out his suspensions, and it has definately been a big positive...Hawaii's Defense has talling 9 sacks in the last two games can be attribute partly to these two guys causing havoc from the outside....Today, I see these two again being major factors in disrupting Utep's Passing game lead by Soph QB Palmer, who is averaging 203 ypg this year...As their play the past two games has shown, they can create a lot of problems for opponents Offenses as well as come up with the big plays which the defense definately needs to do more of.....Purcell and Akpan in this game will have the advantage against Utep's Weakness on Offense, their OL (only 2 starters returned) primarily at the OT positions, where they had to replace their stud OT, and 4th rd draft pick, Darilek....Utep's lack of a talent and depth in its offensive tackles is a big reason why they have given up 12 sacks so far on the year...Today, against Hawaii's two talented DE's they should continue to struggle....Hawaii will blitz Utep today and I see them coming up with no less than 3 sacks on the day...
Other positive Defensive stats for Hawaii since starting 0-2...
-Hawaii's Def has forced 9 TO's(6 ints and 3 fumbles) in 4 games which have lead to 27 pts...
-Hawaii also improved in limiting opponents on 3rd down conversions, improving from 64% in the first two games, to only 43% in the last two..
-Hawaii in its past two games has averaged 46 pts and only averaged giving up 21 pts to their opponents...A turn around from its first two games where Hawaii averaged 28 pts, while giving up an average of 38 pts to their opponents.
Take these stats as you will, but their is some positive results coming from the Def, even with all the inj's and losses they had....Still, Utep should get some points off this Defense today, but they shouldnt break today not against this Utep Offense which is led by the shittier Palmer brother at QB, who is ranked 93rd in passing efficiency and 80th in total Off in the nation, and who as well is only completing 53% of his passes with an 3 to 6 ratio...Utep has some fire power to bend this Warrior Defense, but I dont feel they have enough talent to completely break it...
SITUATIONAL EDGE: UTEP HANGOVER?
Utep is coming off of a Big Upset win over Fresno St last Saturday, and I believe that they will suffer a bit with getting refocused completely for this Hawaii team....Last week Utep had the situational edge on their side as they caught a Fresno St team off of a heartbreaking 4th Q loss to La Tech, which completely burst their bubble and affected their focus and motivation going into their next game against Utep...Fresno St already emotionally drained, yet expected to win easily against Utep, a Conf bottom dweller, was caught by a motivated and confident Minor team off of a big win over their rival at home.
This week, in my opinion, Hawaii now has the situational edges on their side, as Utep will most likely be suffering the hangover effects from their Big Upset of Fresno St...I expect that regaining complete focus will be harder with all the premature talk about them going to a bowl game this year....Hell, there is even talk about them also possibly winning the WAC Title this season.....I say, NOT SO FAST MY AX WHELDING MINER FRIENDS!...LOL....Anyways, when bottom dwelling teams like Utep win outright as huge DD dogs, they usually dont respond to well in the following game, and especially when they are installed as a Favorite....In this situations, I have found it to be rather profitable situation to fade them in their next game....This year, a situation similar to this one occurred when Troy St pulled a Big Upset over nationally ranked Missouri as a DD dog....This was Troy's biggest win in their schools history and I knew that they would definately suffer from a Hangover, which would be made worst if they become a favorite in their next game....Well, sure enough, the following week they were installed as a 10 point road favorite over lowly NMST, and I faded them taking the Aggies who won outright....I am not believing the talk that Price can control this teams emotions enough to regain complete focus on Hawaii....These young players only won 2 game in each of the last 2 seasons...and beating, the once nationally ranked, Fresno St in Fresno is to HUGE of a win for them to simply erase out of their minds completely...and Vegas making them favored in this game wont help with their focus on the Warriors either.
Another reason why this may also be a tough spot for Utep, is due to this being their 4th straight week in which they will be playing in a big game....It is not easy and a lot to expect that young players be able to raise their emotions back up after expending all of it in the previous game...And it is almost impossible to expect Utep's players to be able to do this for 4 consecutive straight week....First Utep had to get up for a big game at home vs nationally ranked Boise St...They faught hard in that game, leading in the first half, only to lose again in the end.....The following week they had another big game against their schools rival in NMST, which they needed to get up for again...Then they had to do it again in another big game vs Fresno St....Now, they are expected to again get up for a Hawaii team who they are already favored to beat...See my point?...This is simply a real tough 4 week stretch for Utep emotionally...and coming in off a Big Upset win last week just makes this weeks game with Hawaii that much more difficult a spot for them to have to deal with....Hawaii should benefit from Uteps emotionally draining past 3 weeks and as well the HANGOVER EFFECT fromtheir Big Upset.
*SOME OTHER INFO, INSIGHTS....
-Hawaii an Underdog, WTF...Hawaii the past 3 seasons has spanked this Utep team by an average of 33 pts...while also being an 18.5 and 27.5 pt Favorite the last two years is now a 4 pt dog...Only thing Utep has done in the past two years is upset Fresno St...Evenso, this is only their 4th win in their last 30 games over a Div 1 team...The past two seasons, they had only 2 wins over a Div 1 team...This year they have equalled that amount, and this makes them worthy of being installed as a FAVORITE....I dont think so!....I also think the Vegas Boys are setting the public up in this one to jump all over Utep because of Coach Price and their Upset of Fresno St last week...Price is a good coach, but it will take a few more big wins before I will back Utep as a favorite over anyone...Hawaii is hurting on Defense, but this team has still gone to two straight bowl games and has put together 3 straight 9+ win seasons...I am not buying it!
-Homecoming Week for Utep.....I think that this means nothing in way of motivation for Utep, let alone any team in the WAC Conf....In College ball Rival games are bigger and Utep had theirs against NMST....Also, who does Utep has anyway that will come back to make this game special for them...?...Uteps HC record in the Sun Bowl is only 12-29....and they lost last years HC game to La Tech 38-35....Utep's record vs Hawaii in 5 HC games is just 1-4.
-Hawaii's Early Losses...As for Hawaii's first two losses to Fl Atl and Rice...Well, Hawaii simply took Fl Atl for an easy win and wasnt at all motivated because of all the hype they were getting in the off season, mainly due to Timmy Chang..and it bit them in the ASS, nothing really else to say in that one as Hawaii had the game won, until the last min in the game where Fl Atl got a TD on 4th down play sending it to OT....As for the loss to Rice, well Hawaii has never done well against teams that run triple option attacks...and not many in the nation do as well....Also, Rice has a top nationally ranked running game year in and year out, so it was not a bad loss...Still though, Hawaii did have a chance to secure a victory, but again fell short one play, missing a Rice turnover late in the fourth when they had the lead.....You know what happen next.....Their are many factors and situations that went in to those two losses, besides playing terrible on Defense....It was a combination of Injuries on the Off and Def, a road game, the upset loss to Fl At, etc..that played parts in the losses....Hawaii still has injuries on Def, and has rebounded from the first two losses with solid wins, and that should not be overlooked, despite who they played.
-Hawaii's Road Woes and poor ATS away from home....Ok, one of the things that have contributed to this poor ATS showing occurred mostly in the pre-Jones era, when Hawaii's travel plans were just as much the cause of them losing as they were....The travel planning was terrible and it didnt address the importance of getting the guys their with enough time to recover from the long flight....In the past, the plans were to simply get them their right before the game and then back immediately after....When Jones took over, one thing he knew that needed to be changed for Hawaii to be a successful program is them being competitive on the road, thus he immediately changed the travel plans that allowed enough time for the players to get adequate rest and recouperation from the long trip...So far the results under Jones has been slow, but it is improving, and the players have been more competitive and able to play at a higher level in games on the road, then they did in the past...The Warriors left the Rock on Weds giving them enough time to get over any jetlag....
As for the poor ATS record, well Hawaii, like most teams never do well on the road as a Conf road favorite, and I think you all know that it is hard for most teams to win on the road in this role....But, in todays game, Hawaii is a DOG, not a FAV...and if you look back at the last two seasons when Hawaii was a DOG on the road, you will see that they have a 3-3 ATS record in this role, winning 2 of them SU and just falling short of another SU win by 3 pts to BYU as a 11.5 pt dog in Provo....Also, if you look at two of the other games where Hawaii lost as a Road Dog both SU and ATS, you will see that it was against USC (CO-National Champs) last year, and at Boise St (WAC Champs) the year before...I think that it is safe to assume that most teams in the nation would also lose playing these two top teams on their fields....
-Important game for Hawaii?....If you want to know if this one is important to Hawaii and Coach Jones...Well, besides being important for Hawaii's WAC Title and Bowl hopes,...this game is also important because it will have an impact on Hawaii's recruiting....How you may be wondering?...Because Coach Price is a Big recruiter of Hawaii players, and Jones knows this...He also has several assistants with Hawaii ties, in Off Coord Price, who was a GA coach for Hawaii in 1991...and DL Coach Malloe, who was an All Star HS player from Hawaii, who played at Washington....With a win, Price can use it against Hawaii in their recruiting of Hawaii local talent....When Price was at Wash St he recruited heavily in Hawaii....In fact 3 of Hawaii's WRs was heavily recruited by Price, but Jones was able to sway them to stay with his program that will highlight them in the Offense.....Price though, was able to steal away one of Hawaii's Top HS QB's ever, who btw also played at the same HS as Timmy Chang and who Chang replaced upon his graduation, in Jason Gessar, now playing for the Tennessee Titans...Jones knows that in order to be successful, he needs to do everything possible to make sure that Hawaii's local talent stays home, and winning games like these against recruiters of Hawaii's local athletes is very important...and I am expecting Coach Jones to treat this game with that in mine.
-Experience goes a long way....Lastly, Hawaii has many Key Veterans in Sr QB Chang, Sr SB Owens, Sr RB's Brewster, Sr Keliikipi, WR Komine, OL Moanoa, DL Fuga, DL Faga, CB Elimimian, and PK Ayat...these guys especially have road experience, which is important in this game as they are the heartbeat of this team...I feel that the team will draw upon them and follow their lead, especially QB Chang and SB Owens leadership....Seeing how these guys have the experience in playing in bigger venues and in bigger games, like the LA Collesium being one of them, they will not be rattled at all by playing in the Sun Bowl and against this Utep team who they have spanked the past 3 seasons....The confidence, experience, and talent that these Hawaii's Sr veterans on Offense have will be a big positive in carrying and motivating the rest of the team in this game today.
*SOME STATS AND TRENDS:
-Hawaii is 7-3 SU vs the Miners since 1992.
-Hawaii won the last 3 games, the 3 seasons, by an average of 33.3 pts.
-Utep is 0-5 ATS vs teams allowing 200 or more rushing yards per game.
-Utep is 1-5 ATS when the line is +3 to -3.
-Utep Home ATS record last year was 2-3.
-Utep is currently averaging less Total Yards per game on Offense, then last year average.
-Utep is currently averaging less running yards per game, then last years average.
-Hawaii was 3-3 ATS as a Road Dog the last two seasons...(losing at USC, Boise St, and UNLV)(winning at BYU, Fresno St, and La Tech).
-Hawaii is 7-5 as an away Dog under HC Jones.
-Hawaii is 8-2 ATS as a Dog off BB SU wins under Jones.
-Utep in the last two seasons has never been a FAV at home vs Div 1 opponents.
*Ok Gang...I think thats enough info backing my play on the Warriors in this game...Sorry so much, but when it comes to Hawaii, it is easy for me to provide a lot of info and insights on them....The Warriors win games on the play of its Offense, and currently it is clicking on all cyclinders at QB, RB, WR, and OL....The Warriors Key position players are also Sr veterans, who are having stellar breakout years so far, and their play, confidence, and experience will help to carry this team to a win....Utep is headed in the right direction under Coach Price, but I feel they are still one to two years and players away from becoming a solid threat for the WAC title...Their home field isnt much of a factor and many of the current Warrior players were on this team that won here 31-6 back in 2002, as an 18.5 pt favorite...Today they are the underdogs and this lack of respect, must not be sitting to good with them.....Utep hasnt proven to me yet to be worthy of being installed a favorite over Hawaii, and last weeks Big upset win over Fresno St may work against them as Favorites in this game today.....This is a Big game for both programs, and in Big games, I rather side with the more talented veterans in Key positions....Hawaii has an overwhelming advantage on the Offensive side of the ball, while Utep holds a slight edge on the Defensive side...But again, this is the WAC, where Offense wins games..and I definately like my chances with the #3 ranked Offense in the Nation, led by the soon to be most prolific passer in NCAA Football history QB Timmy Chang....Hawaii holds its WAC Title destiny in its own hands, and Timmy Chang is the major key to them getting their....I like the Warriors to win this one outright, but will take the generous points and play this as a BIG GAME PLAY---WAC CONF UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH selection.....GO WARRIORS!
GL ALL and LETS GO GET EM!...ALOHA CC..:toast:
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