Big East

[doubledeuce22]

Seems to be a tough conference to pick this year, although the magazines seem to like WVU overall. Seems like everyone has a different sleeper too, and anyone of 5 teams could win.

I guess I'm having a tough time finding a good handle on the Big East.

I will say this, I don't think WVU wins it this year. Pat White bailed them out quite a few times, and I think Bill Stewart is a terrible head coach, especially his decision making.

Any thoughts/discussion?

 

[SoonerBS]

Here's my thoughts:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=692888

 

[YourAllAmerican]

The conference seems wide open to me. I could never pick West Virginia with Bill Stewart guiding the team. Cincy has the best coach in the league, but it'll be interesting to see what happens with them on defense.

I really hate to see happening what I think is going to happen with WVU. For a stretch from 2005-2007 they were perhaps the college team that was most fun for me to watch. I think Stewart is going to bring back the bad ol' days quickly. He's a nice guy, but in over his head, in my opinion.

 

[GoSooners]

I've spent alot of time on this conference in the last week. It's going to take a break or two here or there for a team to win it outright. And I think we could see a tie between 3 or more teams in the end. I'm not sure what the team tie-breaker is for this conference. Whether it be best overall record or highest ranked team. But here's my theory of who I think COULD win it and why:

I intially liked Rutgers when I first started looking at this conference. But unlike the NFL where late season momentum can many times be carried over to the next season, I've found that it isn't as easy in college football. Simply too many roster changes that can destroy overall team chemistry. I also have a bugaboo about teams who play two FCS opponents in a season. Like Florida State and Clemson did last year. Two of the favorites to win the ACC in 2008 who disappointed. There's something about getting too easy of a game that maybe throws a team out of kilter in preparation for conference play. Anyway, both Rutgers and USF scheduled 2 FCS opponents. I would prefer a team who plays either all Division 1 oponents. Or maybe just schedules one FCS game along with one or two road games against middle of the road BCS or Division 1 teams. Just to get that feel for a hostile enviornment. I believe this helped Cincy immensley last season when they traveled to OU early to play in a hostile enviornment in Norman. That game was good preparation for their Big East road games down the road. Again, this is just theory guys. But it seems like the formula for success to get into a BCS bowl is to play that one or two good non-conference road games in a season.

Having said all this, I think the two teams who qualify as the best candidates in conference who have to go through a few more sacrificial non-conference wars to win their conference is Pitt and West Virginia. Pitt has a nice 3 games swing at Buffalo, Navy and then at NC State in preparation for league play. Along with playing ND later in the season at home in preparation for their showdown with WV two weeks later at the end of the year. And WV plays at home against CUSA champs East Carolina, then at Auburn and at back home against Colorado. So this will be good preparion for league play. As well coached as they are, I just can't include Cincy in here as a legit Big East candidate after losing virtually all of their defense. And even though UCONN will have a good defense, it will be pretty much a mute point since several other teams in conference will be just as good on that side of the ball, with better offenses. But UCONN is well coached, and they could end up being a spoiler at home vs Rutgers and USF. Trouble is, all of their other tough games are on the road.

So for me, it's Pitt vs WV. Possibly the the best two teams with the worst coaches. But with by far the best personnel in the league. And I think the Nov. 27th game between WV-Pitt could be the decider in conference. But I feel that the one big mismatch between these two teams will be Pitt's outstanding D-Line vs WV's questionable O-Line. And even though Stull has questionable passing abilty, he will still be the most experienced QB in this game. So I think Pitt could have a slight advantage here. As much as I can't stand Wannstadt, I think this will be one game where he's not at a disadvantage against an inexperienced HC like Stewart. If this guy can't win the conference this season with the personnal he has returning compared to the other teams, then he'll never even come close to winning it again. I also like that Wanny is bringing in new OC Cignetti. I have a feeling that any kind of change here, and any kind of small improvement by this offense, especially in the passing game, and Pitt will get over the hump and win this conference. So I'm going with Pitt. I'll be holding my nose if I decide to bet on them. But i think there will be a few good spots for this team. Mainly when they are made the dogs or very short favorites. I think this team is being dished and neglected a little by the preseason mags because of their poor offensive bowl performance against OSU. But i kind of look at it the other way. Their defense looked great and held OSU to their season low scoring game. I tend to gravitate to the less flashy solid defensive teams when looking for conference winners. And I think Pitt will emerge as the winner after winning a lot of close low scoring defensive games.

 

[SoonerBS]

Well thought out analysis of the Big East, GS . . . .

 

[billhill999]

IMO, three teams have a legit shot, WVU, RU and Cincy.
UCONN has lost Brown and others and revert back to a 6 and 5 type of team.
Syracuse blows monkey chunks.
I don't see Pitt making much noise this season.
May come down to the final game, RU v. WVU

 

[GoSooners]

If I had to add a third team into the mix with WV and Pitt it would be USF. Even though they play the two FCS opponents which i don't care for, they do play at Florida St and then Miami at home late in the season. You guys may have to look at it this way. There is a good chance we could have a tie-breaker for this conference. Will Rutgers lone non-conference game against a sub par Maryland team hold up against Pitt, WV and USF's schedule? I doubt it.You'll have to hope Rutgers wins the conference outright. And one misstep of a game they are supposed to win either at home or on the road, can send the conference into a tiebreaker tailspin. Much like what happened with the Big 12 South last season.

 

[billhill999]

Solid posts as usual Sooner guy.

:toast:

 

[GoSooners]

Here is a little something I just came across. First, this is info that most of you already know about in handicapping games. But for those who know me, know that I'm very big on teams who are able to run, and/or stop the run. In my opinion these are the key ingredients of a winning program. Especially a BCS caliber team. Let's look at run defense as it pertains to this league. First off, the average number of rushing yards per game the 10 BCS Bowl teams gave up last season was 101 yards rushing. The worst of that lot was Ohio State, who gave up an average of 126 yards per game, but that was in a pretty strong running conference. Otherwise, all of these teams were deadly against the run. This is where good defense all starts. And what ALL BCS teams have in common. Here are the rushing yards that the top candidates from this conference gave up last season.

South Florida-101
Cincinnati-109
UCONN-124
Pitt-128
WV-135
Rutgers-149


So now you have to ask yourself which one of these teams are going to be as good defensively, and which are eligible to improve this year. Well, with one starter back we can throw Cincy out. With a defense that gave up 109 ypg rushing I think you can now see why Cincy made it to a BCS game last year. The two teams who return the most starters on defense this season are Pitt and WV. But the kicker here is how much can WV improve over Pitt with just the same amount of starters coming back and giving up 7 ypg more rushing. It may not be easy. Personally, I think Rutgers has a lot of work to do to equal WV, USF and Pitt on defense. Giving up 149 ypg rushing is not what i call BCS material. They'll need to improve on that number, yet have only 6 starters returning. I don't really like their prospects for this reason alone. New QB and WR's withstanding. The most intersting team here is USF, who in giving up just 101 ypg rushing last season could have easily qualified for a BCS bowl. What it tells me is this team DID underachieve last year. But DO retain one of the best D-Lines in the country. And with a senior QB are less likely to have that -8 TO margin this year. Their new and hopefully better OC could fix that problem in a hurry. I have to say that right now this team intrigues me a little the more i study them, and are very much in my mix and is a contender. I just like good defense. And this team has it.

 

[groundhog11]

i know i sound like a homer....but i think wvu will the conference....bill stewert learned some lessons and he is allowing his assistants to coach....they will have the best defense in the big east.....and they have some offensive weapons back....

we will know sept. 12 against ecu if they can compete or not....jarrett brown is a good qb....with them throwing the ball more now, that will take some pressure off the running game.....

i keep thinking it is like when payton manning graduated and tee martin came in the following yr with low expectations.....im looking for 10 wins out of this team this year....

 

[GoSooners]

i know i sound like a homer....but i think wvu will the conference....bill stewert learned some lessons and he is allowing his assistants to coach....they will have the best defense in the big east.....and they have some offensive weapons back....

we will know sept. 12 against ecu if they can compete or not....jarrett brown is a good qb....with them throwing the ball more now, that will take some pressure off the running game.....

i keep thinking it is like when payton manning graduated and tee martin came in the following yr with low expectations.....im looking for 10 wins out of this team this year....

GH...WV and Pitt had almost identical offensive and defensive numbers last season. The only real difference that I can see between the two teams is Pitt was -4 in TO margin and WV was +10. The defenses look very even to me. USF have been cronic underachievers the last 2 years, but they did have the best overall defense of these three teams. And look to have a pretty solid group coming back. I'll give WV one thing, their recruiting has been the best in conference. It should be an interesting year for the Big East. Probably a little better conference than they're given credit for because they look to have some pretty solid numbers coming back on defense this year. And defenses don't make the headlines.

 

[groundhog11]

GH...WV and Pitt had almost identical offensive and defensive numbers last season. The only real difference that I can see between the two teams is Pitt was -4 in TO margin and WV was +10. The defenses look very even to me. USF have been cronic underachievers the last 2 years, but they did have the best overall defense of these three teams. And look to have a pretty solid group coming back. I'll give WV one thing, their recruiting has been the best in conference. It should be an interesting year for the Big East. Probably a little better conference than they're given credit for because they look to have some pretty solid numbers coming back on defense this year.

agree sooners.....everyone is talking rutgers in the big east but i just dont see it....they lost to much.....i think sfla will be tough and will beat wvu down there....lucky wvu plays them in late oct. down there....the thing with pitt is they are bad offensively...wanny acts likes he coaches in the nfl and i dont like there qb....im looking at a wvu, sfla 1 and 2 in the big east race....either one im not surprised if they win it....i think sfla could gain some momentum during the season by beating fla st and miami....if they lose both of them, they may give up on the season....

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

BE belongs to either Rutgers (team with best schedule) & USF (the most talented team).

Rutgers plays Cinci, Pitt, USF and WV at home.

USF and WV have some OOC games that could really kill their momentum for other games.

I'm plugging my nose and going with Rutgers.

No big east team would finish higher than 4th in another bcs conference this season.

 

[GoSooners]

BE belongs to either Rutgers (team with best schedule) & USF (the most talented team).

Rutgers plays Cinci, Pitt, USF and WV at home.

USF and WV have some OOC games that could really kill their momentum for other games.

I'm plugging my nose and going with Rutgers.

No big east team would finish higher than 4th in another bcs conference this season.

Woff...One misstep of a game by Rutgers that they are suppose to win will send that conference into probably at least a 2 and maybe a 3 way tie. And with a new QB & WR's, I can easily see a mistake here or there that will cost Rutgers a game. I still haven't heard a way that Rutgers is going to improve on defense. The 149 yards given up rushing per game won't get it done. And only 6 starters back on defense. And a relatively inexperienced D-Line with a few question marks. They'll need to be a much different team than last year to win the conference and make it to a BCS game. I agree with groundhog. I believe the conference is between WV and USF. And I would have to throw Pitt into this mix. Especially if they show any improvement on offense. Which we should know pretty early.

 

[doubledeuce22]

i really like usf here. think this is the year they put it together.

 

[GoSooners]

The more I look at this conference the more complicated it gets. Since the defenses are so close with many of these teams, it will probably be the team who improves the most on offense that gets it done. Here are the final regualr season offensive numbers (total yards) from last season for the top teams:

Rutgers-404 (thanks in big part to the hot hand of Mike Teel)
South Florida-386
Cincy-360
Pitt-356
WV-352
UCONN-342

Cincy proved that you don't have to be the best offensive team to win your conference. Defense and good coaching got it done. Even though they went through 5 QB's on the way. What surprises me is only 1 team from this conference was able to average over 400 yards of total offense. The question is can Rutgers new QB and new WR's compliment their run game and equal those numbers again? With the most starters returning on offense (8) than the rest of the conference, you would think Pitt would be the most eligible to improve on offense. But coaching is the biggest question mark with this team. Plus road games at Rutgers and WV doesn't help..Speaking of WV, they have only 5 starters back on offense. But I think we all know the bigger question with this team. Can they replace Pat White. And the second biggest question, is Bill Stewart for real? USF gained the second most yards on offense in conference. Can they improve? Very tough call because of having to repace a couple good offensive lineman. And with a couple JC's replacing them, it's always a flip of a coin on how they'll work out. My main problem with this team the last couple of years is turnover margin. They've got to improve on a negative turnover margin to win the conference. Leavitt is also kind of an eccentric coach. He can look good one minute. And look like Mike Stoops on the sidelines the next with USF visors flying all over the place. I really question the overall coaching in this conference. That's why it has been so unpredictable. Kelly is by far the best coach. And he did the most with the least last season. These other coaches need to step up. Schiano passed up some good coaching opportunities to stay at Rutgers. Now he needs to start coaching better than his 46-51 record. Okay, I'm done with this conference for awhile. It's starting to look like a Rubiks Cube.

 

[919]

Admitted WVU homer here.

The key problems for WVU last season were KO coverage (near last in ncaa) and offensive line play (simply unable to convert short yardage situations).

Last season the offensive line had their 3rd OL coach in 3 years in Dave Johnson. By most accounts, they were an overrated unit that came in out of shape, and didn't buy in to Johnson's changes in technique. This season's group will be led by former 5star recruit Josh Jenkins(soph). They are young and inexperienced, but talented. I expect them to grow and jell as the season progresses in year 2 under Johnson. Reports are good, they are buying in as a unit so far. Johnson coached several All-Americans between Georgia and Marshall, so I do not doubt his ability to coach. Also, there are some power backs now in Morgantown to get those short yardage situations converted that I really like.

As the offensive line goes, so goes the offense. Everyone knows Pat White is gone, but the ball will be in the capable hands of Jarrett Brown. Pat White had one year under new OC Jeff Mullen. He helped turn PW from a potential NFL WR into a 2nd rnd draft pick at QB, and was also credited with developing R Skinner at Wake. Jarrett has had a year in this system, and posesses greater arm strength and touch. Pat White was one of the greatest winners in college football, but I think you'll see the passing game blossom in yr 2 under Mullen's watch. There are plenty of weapons at the skill positions in Devine, Jock Sanders, Tavon Austin (FR), Bradley Starks, and Wes Lyons (6'9" WR/Slot who the coaches are extremely high on. dominated the spring game).

The Defense was a suprise last season, since so many players were lost from the Fiesta Bowl winning team (including heart and soul MLB Reed Williams, surgery on both shoulders who is now back for his SR season). The secondary was so thin that slot receiver and former QB, Brandon Hogan was moved to DB in August just weeks before the start of the season. He had never played corner before, even in high school. He struggled early, but came on strong as the season progressed, and is considered a stand out in the BE. There are 3 coaches on defense w/ DC experience including David Lockwood (corners) and Steve Dunlap (Safety). Both are major upgrades from the former staff in terms of coaching/teaching (on a side note, Michigan fans may enjory their new offense, but they should be ready for some high scoring affairs as the asst coaches on defense are horrid). WVU's defensive front is deep and talented (especially if 5star DE Tevita Finau makes it in and it looks like he will), but the LBers will be the stars of this show with Reed Williams back in action.

Concerns are Kicking/Punting (lost all-time leader in Patty Mac) and depth at QB. Highly touted incoming FR QB Gino Smith broke his foot, and will be out until August. That makes WR Bradley Starks the backup early in the season. If Brown goes down, WVU is in trouble.

Bill Stewart has taken a lot of heat, some deserved, some not. I will say this though, he took less money to bring in a fantastic coaching staff. Recruiting at WVU has never been better. We'll see how he does in year 2. He's 2-0 in bowl games with a wins over Bob Stoops and Butch Davis.

 

[Dawoofdaddy]

Woff...One misstep of a game by Rutgers that they are suppose to win will send that conference into probably at least a 2 and maybe a 3 way tie. And with a new QB & WR's, I can easily see a mistake here or there that will cost Rutgers a game. I still haven't heard a way that Rutgers is going to improve on defense. The 149 yards given up rushing per game won't get it done. And only 6 starters back on defense. And a relatively inexperienced D-Line with a few question marks. They'll need to be a much different team than last year to win the conference and make it to a BCS game. I agree with groundhog. I believe the conference is between WV and USF. And I would have to throw Pitt into this mix. Especially if they show any improvement on offense. Which we should know pretty early.

GS, WV looks like a team likely to have its' own share of missteps.

WV replacing a great player QB Pat White, I can easily see qb mistakes here and there that will cost WV at least one game. Also, I still haven't read how WV is going to offensively move the ball with a very inexperienced OL.

Not only is WV absent Pat White this season, they are returning the least amount of lettermen in the conference.

Rutgers isnt anything close to a great team. What they are is a team in a lousy conference with a very favorable schedule. With an average or difficult schedule, Rutgers probably wouldn't be considered in top 3 of big east this season.

Rutgers losing Britt is more of a concern than Teel. Teel had a lousy td/int ratio.

WV is also replacing a great kicker and punter Pat McAfee. I am rather confident WV will lose at least one game this season via special teams misfortune.

Pitt losing 2 rb to nfl and their special teams look very suspect. QB Stull last season has 9/10 td/int ratio and 57% completion rate.

 

[thefivehorse]

Pitt's offense is all about ifs:

If Frank Cignetti can undo all of the wrong Matt Cavanaugh has done to Pat Bostick and Bill Stull, the Panthers' QB situation is a plus instead of a minus. He was brought in because of his niche for developing QBs. Even still, this is a very tall order.

If the Pitt wideouts can realize their potential in spite of their lack of experience, the offense will be able to stretch the field, opening up the running game. Jonathan Baldwin has great speed to go with his dominating size. When you are 6-6 and can run a 4.4, there is nobody in college that can cover you. Cedrick McGee is a sloid but not spectacular kid that catches everything thrown his direction and Oderick Turner is a solid deep threat that brings experience to an otherwise unproven corps.

Pitt hangs it's hat on the rushing game, now doubt. There is no secret, that that is Wannstedt football. The fact that they let go of their entire rushing corps is a bit daunting. The one thing they have going for them is a veteran O-Line returning 3 starters and Lucas Nix, who saw a lot of PT last year, and was probably the better option at tackle as it was. Dion Lewis is not the LeShawn McCoy type of runner, but he is the Stevens-Howling type who is tiny and quick with excellent vision. If he and Chris Burns can play repectable, Pitt will challenge for the conference. That's seems like a fairly tall order for 2 freshmen.

We'll see what happens, but I think Pitt is 1 more year away from taking this conference.

 

[919]

We'll see what happens, but I think Pitt is 1 more year away from taking this conference.

dream on