Big East Monday

[jaypaw]

<!--StartFragment --> YTD 49-52 -16.65


Having a rough season doing a lot of wheel spinning and swallowing a lot of bad chalk - so you might consider fading these



Uconn +4
I'm not one to usually say a team will win because they "need to" but in this spot Uconn is at a turning point where I think calhoun is going to stress in a big way. They are finally getting more realistic lines and I think this one is a little 'over realistic'. Villanueava had a spark finally vs Georgetown and he is tough to stop when he gets a run of confidence. Bookout can't do it all on his own - and though the homecourt should keep Oklahoma in the game till the end I know that talent wise Uconn shouldnt have any trouble keeping it within a couple of buckets - the only question is their motivation, and I'm betting they'll bring it with them.

 

[jaypaw]

I'd be interested in anyones input on this article.



NCB Sun, Jan 9, 2005
Turnovers may nix UConn's payday
http://www.covers.com/includes/articles.aspx?theArt=39808&tid=29&t=2

A lot of fuss is being made over Denham Brown’s breakout performance against Georgetown on Saturday, but before you jump on the UConn bandwagon, you'd better look at the turnover ledger.

After averaging just 8.3 points per game over his first 10 tilts, Denham led UConn with 19 points and grabbed four boards in the 66-59 win over Georgetown as 5-point faves. The junior point guard also showed a lot of defensive hustle, chasing down loose balls and playing stout man-to-man coverage. That helped UConn hold off a second-half Georgetown surge to ensure the club's first payday since Nov. 30.

However, according to CoversExpert Dave Malinsky, Brown’s improvement won’t necessarily result in another UConn payday when it visits the Oklahoma Sooners Monday night.

“What was missing from Brown on Saturday was (that he didn’t record) a single assist, and this is an issue for the entire team,” said Malinsky. “As a team, they only had eight (assists) versus 17 turnovers, an awful ratio, especially considering that Georgetown was not pressing full court.”

With Brown (who also turned the ball over three times against Georgetown) leading the offense, the Huskies currently rank No. 12 in the nation in team assists. But UConn has had trouble notching helpers lately, particularly on the road.

“In their only two road games they have 32 turnovers and 19 assists despite only playing Georgetown and Massachusetts,” said Malinsky. “(This) shows how the leadership from the new guards is not there yet.”

That could prove costly against a Sooners team that’s averaging over 10 swipes per contest.

“Now they face a quick Oklahoma back court that will extend its defense,” Malinsky added. “There is a good chance that (this) weakness could be fully exposed.”

Oddmakers have UConn set as a 3 1/2-point dog.

 

[ASUSundevil]

One of the reasons I like OU. Their defense has been awesome. Throw in the huge revenge and the crazy home court and I feel OU wins by 8-10. By the way, they are an unranked team favored over a ranked roadie - 67% play over the years.

 

[RightSide]

GL Jaypaw! I'm on the Sooners myself along with the majority, but I'll take a team who is 9-0 at home avenging a 27 pt loss from LY anyday! UCONN isn't anything special IMO this year...we'll see tonight. Gotta a funny feeling though it's going to be close, so you might be good with that 4 pts. I have a couple teasers going for that factor as I don't see the Sooners losing this game! GL!

 

[miked429]

i couldnt bet on kelvin sampson coached team with someone elses money.ill play uconn with the points.

 

[jaypaw]

I cant believe this line is at -5 at bodog.

Im thinking about getting some more of it. Its just mind baffling to me to think that Oklahoma is suddenly getting all this credit.

Uconn is far more talented and their primary problem is motivation. Calhoun coaches that way - I'm not sure why, but he lets the inmates run the asylum until they realize their careers are in jepoardy and the world is crashing down around them. I dont know why he does it but it does work in the long run.

I can see where the Oklahoma backers are coming from - game after a token win over georgetown and the huskies are due for another letdown. But what has Oklahoma done this year that shows they will beat the huskies handily? Of the 5 games where Oklahoma has failed to cover this year I'll toss out the SMS game - the Duke Game - and the Northridge games as a wash, but beating Tulsa by only 3 buckets, and getting beat by washington on a neutral court by 5 isnt exactly reason for me to believe that they will destroy Uconn....

I think this line is dependent on the 30 point win over colorado at oklahoma, and what appears to be a uconn collapse having not covered over their last 4 games (prior to the not so convincing georgetown cover). On paper its two teams going in different directions but talent wise Uconn clearly has the edge.

 

[freaknasty+]

This is a tough game Jaypaw. One thing that concerns me is Uconn's guard play. Upfront they are strong and deep, the inexperience in the backcourt could be problem on the road at a tough place like Oklahoma. Talent wise Uconn is head and shoulders above them, I will watch and stay away. Good Luck.

 

[jaypaw]

thanks freak

I'm adding another unit to Uconn +5.5 at bodog

GL to you all and thanks for the input

 

[Birdman]

jaypaw: You are making an error in judgement when you say UConn
has a clear talent edge. UConn may have a slight talent edge but a definite point guard deficit. This Oklahoma team got no preseason props but is definetly top 18-22 material and the Huskies are in same area IMHO. If UConn continues their woes taking care of the ball the way they have on the road against the quickest team they are going to face by far to this point, a blowout is very probable.

I'm not big on using one game assesments but OU whipped Duke in the Garden for 25+ minutes until K got his team going as well as some suspect momentum continuing calls put the sooners in a funk. If that OU team shows up tonight in Lloyd Noble, faggedaboutit.

Uconn's best hope id for Lavender to be sick.

Anyways, GL

 

[jaypaw]

or for bookout to get into foul trouble

its happening

Grabbing Uconn pk +103 (pinny) for the 2nd half


Calhoun has a choice here and I cant see him making the right one

GL

 

[jaypaw]

not making the right one - cant see him NOT making the right one!
whatever

GL anyway

 

[jaypaw]

yeah

ugh

-2.2 first half and -1.1 second half

0-3 -3.3

49-55 -19.95