Big Don's NFL Observation

[BigDon]

I have the Rams ATS in my other NFL thread. Just an observation. No Play. Maybe its just me. But I think the lines maker Have this OVER/Under 63 inflated too high.

 

[BigDon]

Also on Covers there is an article saying both offences will break records tonight. That is a huge RED flag for me to fade.

 

[exploited17]

I'm going to stay away from both side and total and just enjoy the show. Rams 1-5-1 ATS last 7. For a team with their record seems like it is time for them to cover. You don't see teams like this continue not covering I also think they are better. But some holes there too. As far as the total.....hard to bet unders in the NFL now....especially with two teams like this. Unless one team outclasses the other and you get a 35-17 game(seems to be no sign of that)you are just hoping Stay away from the under. Don't care if it hits or not.....It isn't worth it JMO

 

[PeePee]

When totals set at 59+ they've been over at a very high rate historically (75+%).... Someone can confirm this.

 

[BigDon]

I'm going to stay away from both side and total and just enjoy the show. Rams 1-5-1 ATS last 7. For a team with their record seems like it is time for them to cover. You don't see teams like this continue not covering I also think they are better. But some holes there too. As far as the total.....hard to bet unders in the NFL now....especially with two teams like this. Unless one team outclasses the other and you get a 35-17 game(seems to be no sign of that)you are just hoping Stay away from the under. Don't care if it hits or not.....It isn't worth it JMO

Agreed. staying away on total.

 

[BigDon]

When totals set at 59+ they've been over at a very high rate historically (75+%).... Someone can confirm this.

If that is the case, that is another red flag being that it is on prime time. 50/50 but this smells like a Vegas set up.

 

[Biz]

What is a “Vegas set up”??

 

[Serbone]

If that is the case, that is another red flag being that it is on prime time. 50/50 but this smells like a Vegas set up.

A Vegas set up?

 

[PeePee]

Imo...it's over or nothing...any other game I would agree....these two can score big plays 14-17 a quarter unless it's a blowout

 

[BigDon]

A Vegas set up?

Seriously? Believe it or not sometimes Vegas knows more than likely which way Joe public is going to bet. (Yes,they are that good) So they inflate the line. C'mon man ---Betiing 101.

 

[Badgerresh]

LMAO, if you don't believe VEGAS KNOWS at times, I have sand in the desert for sale at a deep discount.....

Replay was put into play so VEGAS could help decide on the outcomes even easier and if you don't believe that, why is it clear as day on some calls and they go the other way???

HMMMMMMM.........

Somebody always has their hands in the cookie jar and thats just a fact!!!!!!!! Cookies are yummy!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Badgerresh]

BTW, VEGAS CLOSES OUT A GREAT WEEKEND with the RAMS and the UNDER coming in to solidify a SUPER WEEKEND where the public bathes..........

 

[BigDon]

BTW, VEGAS CLOSES OUT A GREAT WEEKEND with the RAMS and the UNDER coming in to solidify a SUPER WEEKEND where the public bathes..........

Agreed. :toast:

 

[Serbone]

Yes it all started when Vegas deflected that pass to Franco Harris

 

[brendanjack]

Will this game break 100

 

[Biz]

LMAO, if you don't believe VEGAS KNOWS at times, I have sand in the desert for sale at a deep discount.....

Replay was put into play so VEGAS could help decide on the outcomes even easier and if you don't believe that, why is it clear as day on some calls and they go the other way???

HMMMMMMM.........

Somebody always has their hands in the cookie jar and thats just a fact!!!!!!!! Cookies are yummy!!!!!!!!!!

This is about as square as it gets.

VEGAS WANTS certain outcomes, but they don't KNOW what will happen. Two entirely different things.

"Seriously? Believe it or not sometimes Vegas knows more than likely which way Joe public is going to bet. (Yes,they are that good) So they inflate the line. C'mon man ---Betiing 101."

Nobody is saying books don't have an idea which way the public will wager. You used the words "Set Up". That implies fixing or games being pre determined. That isn't the case. Unless the phrase "set up" implies shading a line, which happens often.

 

[varkeyboy]

OVER or nothing.

 

[lumpy]

I will let him speak for himself, but I take “Vegas set up” to mean a situation where the books give themselves a significant advantage, not any allegation of a fix. The 63 may be that here - but total on Rams v. Saints was 57 and it was over in the third quarter. That was in a dome however. I think that game is what has driven this number up and I suspect public will trend over.

 

[varkeyboy]

I will let him speak for himself, but I take “Vegas set up” to mean a situation where the books give themselves a significant advantage, not any allegation of a fix. The 63 may be that here - but total on Rams v. Saints was 57 and it was over in the third quarter. That was in a dome however. I think that game is what has driven this number up and I suspect public will trend over.

Rams play on a FAST TRACK...........nuff said.

 

[hoku808pc]

I think the Vegas “trap” is on the point spread with the books hanging the hook on the dog all week.

I have a 13pt teaser with over 49.5... Hoping they get that by the 3Q. I might buy back and play under 63 for half my bet cause there is a real possibility this turns into a game with Rams pounding Gurley to keep KC offense off the field in the 4Q.