Aloha Gang, and first, let me wish each and everyone of you a very Happy New Year! Ok, I bet you about heard it said to you a zillion times already, so this will be the last time from me. HAPPY NEW YEAR! Lets get to business. Today Big Ten's Iowa and their BIG QB Nathan Chandlet, to face SEC's Florida and their Freshman star QB Chris Leak. Today, one will be again the star, and one will again be the BIG DUD! Well heres the KEYS I see in this matchup.
Before I get down to business, my play is to take the FLORIDA GATORS -3.5 for 7 Unit Play. Now on to the KEYS leading to victory today.(DISSAPOINTING LOSER)
**Iowa when on Offense:
-Key: RB Fred Russell- their best Off player. rushed for 1,205 yards and leads the 44th ranked Run Off in the land avg 167 ypg. Iowa is 16-2 over the last two years when he runs for 75 yards or more.
-Pass Off- ranked 105th in the nation, gaining 160 ypg. QB Nathan Chandler 6-7 250lbs. had 17 TD's, 10 ints, completed 53%, and avg. 156 ypg.
-Iowa's Off only had 4 TD's passes in 5 games on the road.(VERY WEAK SPOT)
-Iowa Off turned the ball over 21 times in 12 games, and has allowed 22 QB sacks on the year.
**Florida response on Def:
-Key: Florida's Ball Hawking Def. that forced an incredible 31 turnovers , including 20 by ints. They also tallied 25 QB sacks on the year.
-Key: Florida's Def gives up only 19.5 ppg, and 361 total ypg.
-Key: Florida Pass Def ranks 46th in the land giving up only 212 ypg.(BIG KEY FOR DEF)
-The Secondary, led by All-American CB Keiwan Ratliff who has 9 ints w/ 4 TD's, will be locked up man on man against the Hawkeye's weak Pass Off and its receiving corp. This will provide Safety Guss Scott to do what he does best, provide run support.(VERY IMPORTANT)
-Key: Gator Def has allowed only 35% conversion on third down this year. They also rank 17th in the nation in turnover ratio.
****Result of this Matchup****
-Simple. Because the Iowa Off is terrible at passing the ball, it will enable the Florida Secondary squad led by All-American CB Ratliff to lock up and play man coverage. This will then enable Florida to play 7, sometimes 8, in the Box to stop the run. Their is no threat really of the Hawkeye Off winning the game through the air, as they win by running the ball primarily with RB Russell(ranked second in Big Ten). Florida this year has already achieved victories against teams who also are very good at running the ball. They beat Ark with their 7th ranked Rush Off. LSU with their 29th Rush Off., and came so close to winning against Florida St who has the 19th ranked Rush Off, and Miami who has the 38th ranked Rush Off. Having been able to control these teams from totally taking over the game with the run was one part, as these teams are also dangerous passing. Iowa on the other hand ranks 44th in Rushing Off, which is lower then all these teams. But more telling here is the fact that unlike those teams, they possess an almost non-existant passing game to worry about. (Big Adv for Florida's)
**Florida's while on Off:
-Key: QB Chris Leak, completed 60% of his passes for 2,167 yard 14 TD's and 10 ints. Important is his ability to also avoid rushers with athleticism.
-Key: All-American TE Ben Thorpe leading receiver w/ 638 yards, and avg 16 ypc. He has the size and speed to beat secondaries both short and/or deep.
-Key: Florida's RB by committee. 3 RB's all w/ over 500 yards rushing on the year. They accounted for 21 of 39 TD's this year and had an avg of 153 ypg.
-Key: Florida's Big Uglys, they are ranked in the top 5, as the largest and heaviest OL in the nation.
**Iowa's response on Def:
-Key: Iowa's Def gives up only 16.1 ppg, and 313 ypg. It gave up only 19 TD's this year, 10 by way of the ground. They also had 12 ints, forced 12 fumbles, and got 31 QB sacks.
-Key: Iowa's Run Def is ranked 11th in the nation, giving up only 95.7 ypg and 2.5 ypc.
-Iowa's average secondary is ranked 56th in the nation, allowing over 200 ypg throw the air.
****Result of this Matchup****
-Iowa though possessing a very stingy Run Def, they are facing a potent balanced attack of Florida's that can beat them also threw the air, and with a QB who can also avoid their oncoming rushers. Making it even difficult, is having to defend against Florida's multiple use of RB's, who each has a different, but solid playing ability. They should help in keeping the Iowa defenders guessing all day, which is all TE Trope needs to find an open space behind coverages for a big gain. The benefit of having one of the Biggest Offensive lines in the nation, should also help to slow Iowa's aggressive pass rushers from getting to Leak at ease. I wouldn't be surprized to see their stat of 31 QB sacks end there. Still, if they do break through the OL's protection, dealing with Leak's athleticism and mobility is yet another problem they face. The line of scrimmage should be controlled by Florida's massive OL today and Leak should have time to shred Iowa's average and smallish secondary, primarily down the middle with Thorpe.
In conclusion, I find that Iowa's one dimensional Run Off, paired with their inability to hurt Florida with the pass, primarily due to their own lack of talent at QB, and also because Florida has a tough and talented Secondary, will cause their run game to have to beat a tough and quick Def stacked up at the line, primarily focused on shutting down RB Russell. Shut him down, and the Off will follow, as they do not poss any additonal threats. If Florida finds success at this and is now able to force Iowa into 3rd and long situations, which forces them to pass. Iowa will be at the mercy of this ball hawking Def, who does its damage causing turnovers, but also by holding its opponents to no more than 35% conversions on 3rd downs.
Lastly , if you look back at Iowa's three losses, you will notice that two out of the three losses were to teams who like to pass more than run. Iowa did have big wins over Michigan, Minny, Wisconsin, but they are teams who like to run first, and stopping the run is Iowa's strength. Iowa also suffered those defeats on the road away from their house, where they play poor. This game is played in Miami, so I can guarantee that Gator fans will be the majority there today as this is more like a home game for Florida. Still, Florida wins because they possess an Off who strength can be either pass or run, depending on where its opponen
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 02:43 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 03:53 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 08:46 PM.]
Before I get down to business, my play is to take the FLORIDA GATORS -3.5 for 7 Unit Play. Now on to the KEYS leading to victory today.(DISSAPOINTING LOSER)
**Iowa when on Offense:
-Key: RB Fred Russell- their best Off player. rushed for 1,205 yards and leads the 44th ranked Run Off in the land avg 167 ypg. Iowa is 16-2 over the last two years when he runs for 75 yards or more.
-Pass Off- ranked 105th in the nation, gaining 160 ypg. QB Nathan Chandler 6-7 250lbs. had 17 TD's, 10 ints, completed 53%, and avg. 156 ypg.
-Iowa's Off only had 4 TD's passes in 5 games on the road.(VERY WEAK SPOT)
-Iowa Off turned the ball over 21 times in 12 games, and has allowed 22 QB sacks on the year.
**Florida response on Def:
-Key: Florida's Ball Hawking Def. that forced an incredible 31 turnovers , including 20 by ints. They also tallied 25 QB sacks on the year.
-Key: Florida's Def gives up only 19.5 ppg, and 361 total ypg.
-Key: Florida Pass Def ranks 46th in the land giving up only 212 ypg.(BIG KEY FOR DEF)
-The Secondary, led by All-American CB Keiwan Ratliff who has 9 ints w/ 4 TD's, will be locked up man on man against the Hawkeye's weak Pass Off and its receiving corp. This will provide Safety Guss Scott to do what he does best, provide run support.(VERY IMPORTANT)
-Key: Gator Def has allowed only 35% conversion on third down this year. They also rank 17th in the nation in turnover ratio.
****Result of this Matchup****
-Simple. Because the Iowa Off is terrible at passing the ball, it will enable the Florida Secondary squad led by All-American CB Ratliff to lock up and play man coverage. This will then enable Florida to play 7, sometimes 8, in the Box to stop the run. Their is no threat really of the Hawkeye Off winning the game through the air, as they win by running the ball primarily with RB Russell(ranked second in Big Ten). Florida this year has already achieved victories against teams who also are very good at running the ball. They beat Ark with their 7th ranked Rush Off. LSU with their 29th Rush Off., and came so close to winning against Florida St who has the 19th ranked Rush Off, and Miami who has the 38th ranked Rush Off. Having been able to control these teams from totally taking over the game with the run was one part, as these teams are also dangerous passing. Iowa on the other hand ranks 44th in Rushing Off, which is lower then all these teams. But more telling here is the fact that unlike those teams, they possess an almost non-existant passing game to worry about. (Big Adv for Florida's)
**Florida's while on Off:
-Key: QB Chris Leak, completed 60% of his passes for 2,167 yard 14 TD's and 10 ints. Important is his ability to also avoid rushers with athleticism.
-Key: All-American TE Ben Thorpe leading receiver w/ 638 yards, and avg 16 ypc. He has the size and speed to beat secondaries both short and/or deep.
-Key: Florida's RB by committee. 3 RB's all w/ over 500 yards rushing on the year. They accounted for 21 of 39 TD's this year and had an avg of 153 ypg.
-Key: Florida's Big Uglys, they are ranked in the top 5, as the largest and heaviest OL in the nation.
**Iowa's response on Def:
-Key: Iowa's Def gives up only 16.1 ppg, and 313 ypg. It gave up only 19 TD's this year, 10 by way of the ground. They also had 12 ints, forced 12 fumbles, and got 31 QB sacks.
-Key: Iowa's Run Def is ranked 11th in the nation, giving up only 95.7 ypg and 2.5 ypc.
-Iowa's average secondary is ranked 56th in the nation, allowing over 200 ypg throw the air.
****Result of this Matchup****
-Iowa though possessing a very stingy Run Def, they are facing a potent balanced attack of Florida's that can beat them also threw the air, and with a QB who can also avoid their oncoming rushers. Making it even difficult, is having to defend against Florida's multiple use of RB's, who each has a different, but solid playing ability. They should help in keeping the Iowa defenders guessing all day, which is all TE Trope needs to find an open space behind coverages for a big gain. The benefit of having one of the Biggest Offensive lines in the nation, should also help to slow Iowa's aggressive pass rushers from getting to Leak at ease. I wouldn't be surprized to see their stat of 31 QB sacks end there. Still, if they do break through the OL's protection, dealing with Leak's athleticism and mobility is yet another problem they face. The line of scrimmage should be controlled by Florida's massive OL today and Leak should have time to shred Iowa's average and smallish secondary, primarily down the middle with Thorpe.
In conclusion, I find that Iowa's one dimensional Run Off, paired with their inability to hurt Florida with the pass, primarily due to their own lack of talent at QB, and also because Florida has a tough and talented Secondary, will cause their run game to have to beat a tough and quick Def stacked up at the line, primarily focused on shutting down RB Russell. Shut him down, and the Off will follow, as they do not poss any additonal threats. If Florida finds success at this and is now able to force Iowa into 3rd and long situations, which forces them to pass. Iowa will be at the mercy of this ball hawking Def, who does its damage causing turnovers, but also by holding its opponents to no more than 35% conversions on 3rd downs.
Lastly , if you look back at Iowa's three losses, you will notice that two out of the three losses were to teams who like to pass more than run. Iowa did have big wins over Michigan, Minny, Wisconsin, but they are teams who like to run first, and stopping the run is Iowa's strength. Iowa also suffered those defeats on the road away from their house, where they play poor. This game is played in Miami, so I can guarantee that Gator fans will be the majority there today as this is more like a home game for Florida. Still, Florida wins because they possess an Off who strength can be either pass or run, depending on where its opponen
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 02:43 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 03:53 PM.]
[This message was edited by Co-Captain on January 01, 2004 at 08:46 PM.]
