BIG A bought picks for 2/5/09 thursday

[realfire]

these guys are pretty good & I need help with this pick 6 today
races 4 thru 9
maybe joey will take a look & see what races he would single
the valuline

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Positive Factors <o></o>​

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Most Likely Winners <o></o>​

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Recommended Exotic Wagers <o></o>​

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AQU-1 1mi-70 DIRT 9 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(12:30) B CLM 50,000 F 3Y $44,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
6 DIVA'S GOLD 5/2 36% 9/5 <v:shape id=_x0000_i1039 style="WIDTH: 11.25pt; HEIGHT: 11.25pt" alt="" type="#_x0000_t75"> <v:imagedata o:href="http://www.trackmaster.com/images/valuline/pwrplay.jpg" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\chuck\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image003.jpg"></v:imagedata> </v:shape><o></o></PRE>
1A e-IT'SALLABOUTUS 6/1 29% 5/2 <v:shape id=_x0000_i1040 style="WIDTH: 12.75pt; HEIGHT: 9.75pt" alt="" type="#_x0000_t75"> <v:imagedata o:href="http://www.trackmaster.com/images/valuline/longshot.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\chuck\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image004.gif"></v:imagedata> </v:shape><o></o></PRE>
8 SHE'S MY FORTUNE 9/2 14% 6/1 <o></o></PRE>DIVA'S GOLD is a Power Play which can be used in your exotics.
e-IT'SALLABOUTUS is a Longshot Value Bet.<o></o>
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Exacta Box: 6 w 1A, 8
Daily Double: 6 <v:shape id=_x0000_i1041 style="WIDTH: 12pt; HEIGHT: 6.75pt" alt="" type="#_x0000_t75"><v:imagedata o:href="http://www.trackmaster.com/images/valuline/rtarrow.jpg" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\chuck\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image005.jpg"></v:imagedata></v:shape>5, 2, 4<o></o>
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AQU-2 6f DIRT 8 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(12:58) D MSW 3Y $43,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex q p3 p4 t ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
5 WOODACRE 9/5 33% 2/1 <o></o></PRE>
2 e-VALID SUM 3/1 33% 2/1 <o></o></PRE>
4 MUCH THE BEST 5/2 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
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AQU-3 6f DIRT 6 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(1:26) A StALW 50,000 4YUP $43,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
1 THE TRUFFLE MAN 5/2 33% 2/1 <o></o></PRE>
5 METHODTOMYMADNESS 6/1 33% 2/1 <v:shape id=_x0000_i1042 style="WIDTH: 12.75pt; HEIGHT: 9.75pt" alt="" type="#_x0000_t75"> <v:imagedata o:href="http://www.trackmaster.com/images/valuline/longshot.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\chuck\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image004.gif"></v:imagedata> </v:shape><o></o></PRE>
6 BANKING HOLIDAY 3/1 22% 7/2 <o></o></PRE>METHODTOMYMADNESS is a Longshot Value Bet.<o></o>
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AQU-4 6f DIRT 9 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(1:55) A CLM 10,000 4YUP $19,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex q p3 p6 t ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
7 BUBBA GUM 5/2 29% 5/2 <o></o></PRE>
2 R FAST FAVORITE 3/1 29% 5/2 <o></o></PRE>
1 e-DEBATING 4/1 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE>
6 SMOKIN WARRIOR 5/1 13% 7/1 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
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AQU-5 6f DIRT 11 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(2:24) A CLM 10,000 F/M 4YUP $15,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex p3 t ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
6 VICTORY FOR M'LAD 5/2 33% 2/1 <o></o></PRE>
9 COURTING ELAINE 3/1 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE>
2 e-LAST DESIRE 7/2 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
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AQU-6 6f DIRT 10 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(2:52) C MCL 15,000 3Y $15,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex p3 p4 t s ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
10 MR. JOYSTICK 4/1 36% 9/5 $<o></o></PRE>
4 HOOKED UP 2/1 17% 5/1 <o></o></PRE>
1 ROARING SPOUSE 3/1 14% 6/1 <o></o></PRE>MR. JOYSTICK is a Value Bet.<o></o>
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AQU-7 1mile DIRT 10 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(3:20) A CLM 7,500 4YUP $18,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex p3 t s ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
10 HURRICANE HEAT 7/5 33% 2/1 <o></o></PRE>
9 <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-comffice:smarttags" /><st1:City w:st="on"><st1lace w:st="on">BEDFORD</st1lace></st1:City> ARCH 5/1 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE>
1 SHIP'S PIANO 6/1 20% 4/1 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
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AQU-8 6f DIRT 9 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(3:49) A StALW 50,000 F/M 4YUP $43,000<o></o></PRE>
P# dd ex t s ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
2 STARSHIP CRUISER 3/1 25% 3/1 <o></o></PRE>
4 VICTORIOUS DREAM 7/2 18% 9/2 <o></o></PRE>
7 SORORITY SISTER 8/1 18% 9/2 <o></o></PRE>
1 ONE TOUGH BELLE 8/1 17% 5/1 <o></o></PRE>
8 TIS CACTUS NELLIE 4/1 13% 7/1 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
</TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 16"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" colSpan=4>

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<o></o>
</TD></TR><TR style="mso-yfti-irow: 17"><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>



7 <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top noWrap>



C J S <o></o></PRE></TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top>
AQU-9 6f DIRT 13 Horses<o></o></PRE>
(4:18) B MCL 15,000 4YUP $15,000<o></o></PRE>
P# ex t s ML WP TVL <o></o></PRE>
2 PSYCHOTIC SUMMER 8/1 36% 9/5 <v:shape id=_x0000_i1043 style="WIDTH: 12.75pt; HEIGHT: 9.75pt" alt="" type="#_x0000_t75"> <v:imagedata o:href="http://www.trackmaster.com/images/valuline/longshot.gif" src="file:///C:\DOCUME~1\chuck\LOCALS~1\Temp\msohtml1\01\clip_image004.gif"></v:imagedata> </v:shape><o></o></PRE>PSYCHOTIC SUMMER is a Longshot Value Bet.<o></o>
</TD><TD style="BORDER-RIGHT: #ece9d8; PADDING-RIGHT: 2.25pt; BORDER-TOP: #ece9d8; PADDING-LEFT: 2.25pt; PADDING-BOTTOM: 2.25pt; BORDER-LEFT: #ece9d8; PADDING-TOP: 2.25pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #ece9d8; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" vAlign=top><o> </o>
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[realfire]

DEFINITIONS:
P# Program Number
ML Morning Line - track handicapper's early estimate of probable post-time odds
WP Win Probability - the horse's chance of winning the race
NOTE: a WP of 25% means this win contender has a 75% chance of not winning, and you will need 3/1 to break-even on this wager.
TVL THOROUGHBRED VALULINE - the "fair" odds or "break-even" odds that you need to offset the risk of losing

Thumbs Up (Strong Favorite) - our top-ranked win contender that passes our stringent test for most likely winner and must be "keyed" in all exotic wagers, regardless of price

Power Play - our top-ranked win contender, rated below our Thumbs Up, which can be used in your exotics.
$ Value Bet - a high-ranked win contender which is under-valued on the Morning Line; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Longshot Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Monster Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is 10/1, or higher, and is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Stop - Chaos - Pass Race
e Entry - Combined win probability of all horses in entry
A-B-C-D Race Grade (quality and reliability of information); "A" is best

Win Contender's Strength Rating: Superior 20 up; Good 13-19; Average 8-12; Marginal 1-7

POSITIVE FACTORS:
A Notable Auction price
C Purse winnings at this Course (track) are 50% above the average for this field.
D Purse winnings at this Distance are 50% above the average for this field.
F Notable stud Fee
G Purse winnings on the Grass are 50% above the average for this field.
H High win percentage - this horse has won 40% or more of lifetime starts.
I Performance Index - this horse has Valuline's top speed rating.
J Top Jockey - wins over 18% or earns more than $7500 per mount
L First-time Lasix
M Outstanding Money won this field - money won is 100% above the average for this field.
P Superior early Pace
S Superior late Speed
T Top Trainer - wins over 20% or earns more than $9500 per start
W Outstanding Workout pattern
________________________________________
GUIDE TO USING THE VALULINE
What is The Valuline?
It is a short list of the most likely winners.
These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:
"WIN FACTOR" = #winners
________________________________________#races ÷ #win contenders
________________________________________#horses entered
For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a WIN FACTOR of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured.

 

[joeyp]

DEFINITIONS:
P# Program Number
ML Morning Line - track handicapper's early estimate of probable post-time odds
WP Win Probability - the horse's chance of winning the race
NOTE: a WP of 25% means this win contender has a 75% chance of not winning, and you will need 3/1 to break-even on this wager.
TVL THOROUGHBRED VALULINE - the "fair" odds or "break-even" odds that you need to offset the risk of losing

Thumbs Up (Strong Favorite) - our top-ranked win contender that passes our stringent test for most likely winner and must be "keyed" in all exotic wagers, regardless of price

Power Play - our top-ranked win contender, rated below our Thumbs Up, which can be used in your exotics.
$ Value Bet - a high-ranked win contender which is under-valued on the Morning Line; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Longshot Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Monster Value Bet - a win contender whose Morning Line is 10/1, or higher, and is a 100% overlay to its TVL odds; check track odds for an overlay on this horse.

Stop - Chaos - Pass Race
e Entry - Combined win probability of all horses in entry
A-B-C-D Race Grade (quality and reliability of information); "A" is best

Win Contender's Strength Rating: Superior 20 up; Good 13-19; Average 8-12; Marginal 1-7

POSITIVE FACTORS:
A Notable Auction price
C Purse winnings at this Course (track) are 50% above the average for this field.
D Purse winnings at this Distance are 50% above the average for this field.
F Notable stud Fee
G Purse winnings on the Grass are 50% above the average for this field.
H High win percentage - this horse has won 40% or more of lifetime starts.
I Performance Index - this horse has Valuline's top speed rating.
J Top Jockey - wins over 18% or earns more than $7500 per mount
L First-time Lasix
M Outstanding Money won this field - money won is 100% above the average for this field.
P Superior early Pace
S Superior late Speed
T Top Trainer - wins over 20% or earns more than $9500 per start
W Outstanding Workout pattern
________________________________________
GUIDE TO USING THE VALULINE
What is The Valuline?
It is a short list of the most likely winners.
These "selections" are the best in the industry, as measured by the:
"WIN FACTOR" = #winners
________________________________________#races ÷ #win contenders
________________________________________#horses entered
For example, 6 winners in 9 races, listing only 1/3 of the horses entered on today's card, yields a WIN FACTOR of 2.0, twice the expected value, and now the industry standard by which all handicappers are measured.

heres what i think; in the 4th race, i would take #1 debating because he was scratched the other day and rated high on my picks that day to win and in the 7th, well my pick of the day at aqueduct is #3 five demon bad and in the 9th you got to use the #2 pschotic summer as a key

hope i helped you out

 

[realfire]

thanks joey

 

[realfire]

you guys need to get dishnetwork
it has both hrtv & tvg
you need hrtv to watch gulf & sa...
dtv only carries tvg

 

[realfire]

I posted the pro picks above just incase anyone wanted to use
it, I'm betting only the pick6 with the help of joey & this...
plus my own thoughts

 

[spicytomato]

good luck with that

heres thoughts

7/9 2/4/10/241/7

just thoughts
best of luck

 

[joeyp]

you guys need to get dishnetwork
it has both hrtv & tvg
you need hrtv to watch gulf & sa...
dtv only carries tvg

i watch every race on ubet.com

 

[simulcaster]

They did a decent job at Aqueduct, for $10.00.
5 winners in 9 races, all chalk though.
But you would have done just as well playing the morning line 05, and that't free.

simulcaster

 

[Danasal]

Anyone know much about Noel Michaels as far as handicapping is concerned ? He has a "MAJOR DERBY PREP RACE SERVICE" being offered for all the prep races leading up to the Derby. Did anyone purchase thise service. Does anyone know his pick for the upcoming El Camino Real Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes next weekend ?

 

[joeyp]

Anyone know much about Noel Michaels as far as handicapping is concerned ? He has a "MAJOR DERBY PREP RACE SERVICE" being offered for all the prep races leading up to the Derby. Did anyone purchase thise service. Does anyone know his pick for the upcoming El Camino Real Derby and the Sam F. Davis Stakes next weekend ?

go here for noel michaels http://www.nationalracemasters.com/...tail.asp?id=327

 

[HarleyRoadKing]

i watch every race on ubet.com

correction: youbet.com

I signed up there last week for a 60 day free trial.. You can watch all races thru a live stream... Not sure how much after the trial runs out tho..

 

[joeyp]

correction: youbet.com

I signed up there last week for a 60 day free trial.. You can watch all races thru a live stream... Not sure how much after the trial runs out tho..

$14 mo