Figured I'd get a thread started for the 2009-2010 NFL season :toast:
Some of you may remember me from the NBA forum, but for those who don't, here's a little bit about me...
Rookie poster here at therx, but not a rookie bettor. Been betting seriously for around 10 yrs now, with much success in most of the major sports. I take what I do very seriously, and commit alot of time and effort to ensure that things are done the right way. As is the case with many of you, I am in this for life, winning and losing means more to me than simply being up or down money. For me this is about beating a system. Our profits and losses, are simply the reward and punishment respectively, for a job well done, or a job that needs improving. Always good to keep in mind that this is a marathon and not a sprint! Marathons require runners to conserve energy for success, or, for our purposes and in our case, conservative bank roll management. Managing your money appropriately is an integral part of the game, if not the most important part. This allows us the room we need to improve, and provides us with the opportunity to approach the game with a stress-free and clear mind! So bet at your level, it's important! Going to get into some of the details of how I bet just prior to the beginning of the season, but for now I'd like to take advantage of some of the "free time" we have during the preseason, to evaluate teams and the direction they have taken during their respective offseasons. Before I do, however, I'd like to briefly mention a few things in regards to betting football in general..
As many of you know, football is by far and away the most popular sport in terms of betting..It makes sense after all. Football has a shorter betting season when compared to MLB, NHL, NBA etc, teams only play once a week, and, it is arguably the most entertaining of the sports to watch, with everyone and their mothers claiming to be "experts" of the game, and everyone wanting a piece of the action..No surprise then why sportsbooks assign only the best oddsmakers to producing football lines..With that being said, it is imperative to notice that spreads and overs/unders, tend to reflect public perception of the quality of teams in question, and not the actual quality of the teams at hand. The market plays a very large role in assisting oddsmakers when it comes to putting out a line. Understanding why a line is set where it is, can be just as important as our reasons for backing or fading a given team. After all, one cannot deny the efficiency of sports books in regards to generating profit. For this reason, contrarian philosophies tend to be profitable strategies over the long run for bettors. Also this is where line value comes into play. Lines are taxed, no way around that fact. If oddsmakers anticipate heavy action on one side, we often see a team that should be favored by 3, favored by a touchdown or more. Where does this leave us? Well, if value is sucked out on one side, it must be spit right back out on the other side. This is why some people prefer to bet dogs and unders, simply because there tends to be a significant upside in terms of value for under bets and + points bets, in light of the fact that people tend to bet favs and overs, and while lines reflect this public preference, the road is paved for under bettors and dog bettors to take advantage of lines that are full of value! This however is only one facet of the game, the other is good old fashioned capping. Understanding the sport is important. What specific things make one team better than the next? What things make a team likely candidates to cover a spread? Public opinion tends to surround itself around star players, when in all reality, most games are won or lost on the line of scrimmage, and depend on turnover margins. Taking as many relevant things into account as possible, is important, without a doubt. Betting on a team, simply because T.O. plays for them, is recipe for disaster in the long run. Details are key when betting. They are the difference between winning and losing seasons. Absorb as much information as possible, and be sharp when betting! Know why you bet a team, and make sure your reasons are sound! After all, this the only part the game we can control. Once the ball is kicked off, our fates are in the hands of the "gambling gods" so to speak. They do their part in making and breaking dreams, and we must do ours, and make the best decisions we can with the information we have available to us. Needless to say, we can go on forever talking about betting in general, so we will stop here..I'd like to wish everybody luck this season, and would enjoy very much for people to comment with opinions/criticisms /questions over the course of the season..We're in this together so let's make the best of it!!
GL, again..
Some of you may remember me from the NBA forum, but for those who don't, here's a little bit about me...
Rookie poster here at therx, but not a rookie bettor. Been betting seriously for around 10 yrs now, with much success in most of the major sports. I take what I do very seriously, and commit alot of time and effort to ensure that things are done the right way. As is the case with many of you, I am in this for life, winning and losing means more to me than simply being up or down money. For me this is about beating a system. Our profits and losses, are simply the reward and punishment respectively, for a job well done, or a job that needs improving. Always good to keep in mind that this is a marathon and not a sprint! Marathons require runners to conserve energy for success, or, for our purposes and in our case, conservative bank roll management. Managing your money appropriately is an integral part of the game, if not the most important part. This allows us the room we need to improve, and provides us with the opportunity to approach the game with a stress-free and clear mind! So bet at your level, it's important! Going to get into some of the details of how I bet just prior to the beginning of the season, but for now I'd like to take advantage of some of the "free time" we have during the preseason, to evaluate teams and the direction they have taken during their respective offseasons. Before I do, however, I'd like to briefly mention a few things in regards to betting football in general..
As many of you know, football is by far and away the most popular sport in terms of betting..It makes sense after all. Football has a shorter betting season when compared to MLB, NHL, NBA etc, teams only play once a week, and, it is arguably the most entertaining of the sports to watch, with everyone and their mothers claiming to be "experts" of the game, and everyone wanting a piece of the action..No surprise then why sportsbooks assign only the best oddsmakers to producing football lines..With that being said, it is imperative to notice that spreads and overs/unders, tend to reflect public perception of the quality of teams in question, and not the actual quality of the teams at hand. The market plays a very large role in assisting oddsmakers when it comes to putting out a line. Understanding why a line is set where it is, can be just as important as our reasons for backing or fading a given team. After all, one cannot deny the efficiency of sports books in regards to generating profit. For this reason, contrarian philosophies tend to be profitable strategies over the long run for bettors. Also this is where line value comes into play. Lines are taxed, no way around that fact. If oddsmakers anticipate heavy action on one side, we often see a team that should be favored by 3, favored by a touchdown or more. Where does this leave us? Well, if value is sucked out on one side, it must be spit right back out on the other side. This is why some people prefer to bet dogs and unders, simply because there tends to be a significant upside in terms of value for under bets and + points bets, in light of the fact that people tend to bet favs and overs, and while lines reflect this public preference, the road is paved for under bettors and dog bettors to take advantage of lines that are full of value! This however is only one facet of the game, the other is good old fashioned capping. Understanding the sport is important. What specific things make one team better than the next? What things make a team likely candidates to cover a spread? Public opinion tends to surround itself around star players, when in all reality, most games are won or lost on the line of scrimmage, and depend on turnover margins. Taking as many relevant things into account as possible, is important, without a doubt. Betting on a team, simply because T.O. plays for them, is recipe for disaster in the long run. Details are key when betting. They are the difference between winning and losing seasons. Absorb as much information as possible, and be sharp when betting! Know why you bet a team, and make sure your reasons are sound! After all, this the only part the game we can control. Once the ball is kicked off, our fates are in the hands of the "gambling gods" so to speak. They do their part in making and breaking dreams, and we must do ours, and make the best decisions we can with the information we have available to us. Needless to say, we can go on forever talking about betting in general, so we will stop here..I'd like to wish everybody luck this season, and would enjoy very much for people to comment with opinions/criticisms /questions over the course of the season..We're in this together so let's make the best of it!!
GL, again..
