Bettin’ on Backups (Purdue/Minn Lock)

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Take Purdue +12.5 when they visit Minnesota on Saturday.

This line has jumped from a reasonable opener of 10 to an outrageous 12.5 based on Aidan O'Connell's availability...or lack thereof.

Listen:

A little birdie in my ear (someone very close to the Boilermaker program) has informed me this morning that they're NOT playing possum about AOC here. His rib injury will in fact keep him out of this game.

Now normie logic would say that with their star passer out, and Purdue already struggling to rush the ball effectively...that this should spell heaps of trouble for their offense as a whole.

But hold on just a cotton pickin' minute!

I have no qualms about betting on backups. In fact, I've built my fortune in this industry by having the gumption and foresight to bet on backups.

And this Boilermaker second string QB isn't just some frosh who's wet behind the ears...

UCLA transfer Austin Burton is a seasoned and mature 6th year senior. He was already well-liked in the locker-room, and his rep was further solidified by adeptly handling his business against Florida Atlantic last week. He'll be playing without jitters.

Even more important:

Look for underrated coach Jeff Brohm to flip this seemingly disadvantageous personnel situation on the Gophers. He holds the cards. He has access to the information regarding AOC's status. Minnesota, led by used car salesman extraordinaire PJ Fleck, could have their preparation muddled and confused. It might be difficult to grasp, but this is one of those spots where AOC's health will create a bigger distraction for Minny than it does for Purdue.

From our internal meeting:

"Minnesota is no doubt riding high, having mopped the floor with Colorado and Michy State these past 2 weeks. But I've seen it a million times with this program. In both hoops and football. For whatever reason, Minnesota just lays an egg in this spot. It's not something I can quantify or explain. I can't provide a warm & fuzzy statistic to back it up. But when Gopher teams get off to hot starts and get that little natty ranking number next to their name, they disappoint. Purdue will take them to the wire and cover."

LocksNonStop
 

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Locks....welcome to the RX CFB Forum, sure you will enjoy the site......
many solid cappers here...BOL.......indy
 
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Yeah keep laughing.

I’ve given out 3 picks on this little forum and they’ve all crushed…

I can surely laugh, regardless of outcome. You literally wrote this and your entire writeup centers on it being the case

"His rib injury will in fact keep him out of this game." He's dropped back 40 times and ran it downfield 4 times.
 

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I can surely laugh, regardless of outcome. You literally wrote this and your entire writeup centers on it being the case

"His rib injury will in fact keep him out of this game." He's dropped back 40 times and ran it downfield 4 times.
Well,they covered pretty easily and the QB played like shit so....either way he was likely right
It was run and stop run that mattered
 

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I can surely laugh, regardless of outcome. You literally wrote this and your entire writeup centers on it being the case

"His rib injury will in fact keep him out of this game." He's dropped back 40 times and ran it downfield 4 times.
Yup. Stay mad. I know you gatekeepers in these forums don’t like people who actually have talent.

I told you Gophers would lay an egg…

Losing as a 12.5 point fav certainly fits that bill…
 

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I wouldn't get too loud on that soapbox ... You won the bet (congrats) but your whole premise was wrong.
This brings the old saying too mind "It's better to be lucky than good!"
 

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I wouldn't get too loud on that soapbox ... You won the bet (congrats) but your whole premise was wrong.
This brings the old saying too mind "It's better to be lucky than good!"
Nope
It was much more a play against Minny than anything
How was it lucky to get a win when the D held them to less points than they were getting regardless of who played QB?
 

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Seemed to me he was mostly focused on the back up QB issue
"Minnesota just lays an egg in this spot."

It isn't like he said the starter sucks and the back up is a future elite starter much better than their current starter and thats the difference.

If he was willing to bet the back up than the starter playins is just a +

Anyway
Lets move on he got a nice win
 

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His header was “bettin on backups” and how he made millions doing so and then he explained that this backup was special with experience and he knew it.
 

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