Betting the Super Bowl Coin Toss
by T.O. Whenham - 01/21/2009
I can't suggest that betting on the coin toss is a sound investment, but that doesn't mean it doesn't make sense. It's the first chance for you to get bragging rights over your buddies on the big day, and no day of the year is more about bragging rights than the Super Bowl. It only makes sense, then, that you would want to have the best edge you can. Or, at least, you want to believe you have an edge right before the coin is tossed.
The coin itself will again be coming from Highland Mint in Melbourne, Florida. It's two-tone with both gold and silver, so don't forget to factor that into your handicapping. The toss itself will be an all-star affair. John Elway won the Super Bowl 10 years ago, Roger Craig 20 years back, and Lynn Swann is 30 years removed. All three are coming back to mark their anniversaries by making the toss. No word on who will actually make the toss, but you probably don't need to lose too much sleep about that.
You can actually bet on the coin toss in at least three different ways - heads or tails, which team will win, and which team will win the opening kickoff. Each one is typically priced at -105.
In the Super Bowl, teams cannot defer their decision until the second half if they win the toss. That means that the team that wins the toss will almost certainly choose to receive the kick - they have in all 42 previous versions of the game. Choosing to kick off would seemingly be ridiculous unless you really had no faith in your offense and all sorts of faith in your defense. Pittsburgh is close to that, but not nearly close enough.
Baltimore may have chosen to kick in Super Bowl XXXV because Ray Lewis and company are way scarier than Trent Dilfer, but the Giants won the toss.
Here's a truly bizarre stat - the NFC team has won the last 11 straight coin tosses. That seems unlikely, but it has happened. Now all you have to do is figure out if the streak will continue, or if the AFC is due. If you are having trouble deciding then maybe you should flip a coin.
The Giants broke an ugly trend last year when they became the first team since Tampa Bay five years earlier to win both the coin toss and the game. The loser of the coin toss has won nine of the last 12 Super Bowls, so you might want to cheer against your team in this case. Or maybe that means that the winner of the flip should choose to kick it away, because the first possession doesn't seem to give the edge that it should logically. On a longer-term view, though, the coin toss doesn't seem to matter. The winners of the toss have won 20 of the 42 games, so it's essentially not a determining factor at all. It's streaky, though - the winners of the toss were 17-13 in the first 30 games, before going 3-9 since.
The Cardinals have never been in a Super Bowl, so they obviously have never called a Super Bowl coin toss. They'll be inexperienced, but they are still much better at it than the Steelers. Pittsburgh has won just one coin toss in six tries, and that was way back in their first try. They are 4-1 when they have lost the toss, though, so maybe they should be cheering for the Cardinals. Pittsburgh is the designated road team this year, as the AFC always is in odd numbered years, so it will be down to them to call the toss.