Why West Virginia is a good title bet
Bruce Feldman
ESPN Insider
About a week ago, while I was in Las Vegas, I wandered into the Sports Book at Mandalay Bay and picked up a sheet detailing the odds to win the BCS national championship. I was surprised at quite a few things I saw on there. The biggest eyebrow-raiser was seeing the Ohio State Buckeyes, who opened at 20-1, now down to a 10-1 pick. That OSU will be without five key starters, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, for the first five games of the season was one thing, but the cloud hanging over Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel, thanks to an NCAA investigation, was another.
I later spoke about Ohio State and some other curious NCAA odds with my colleague Chad Millman, who authors the always interesting "Behind the Bets" blog on Insider with Ed Salmons, an oddsmaker at the Las Vegas Hilton. You can listen to our conversation on the podcast, in which we talk about how the "experts" arrive at their lines in these types of things as well as the merits of the Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Florida State Seminoles and other programs. I suspect Ed's feelings on West Virginia coach Bill Stewart may resonate with some folks and rile up some others.
With a nod to Chad and Ed, this week's Top 10 list consists of the best "values" for BCS title bets (all odds are from the Mandalay Bay/MGM sheet I picked up 10 days ago):
1. West Virginia Mountaineers
Opened 60-1; Current: 50-1
OK, you've read some of this here before: I am a big believer in Dana Holgorsen. He is as sharp an offensive mind as there is working in college football today. What he did last year at Oklahoma State was remarkable. Now he inherits a team with some promising young skill talent (remember the name Tavon Austin) and a gifted QB with starting experience in Geno Smith. Last season, WVU ranked 78th in scoring. Expect a huge jump. This team is going to pile up points and roll through the Big East.
In defensive end Bruce Irvin, the Mountaineers may have the best pass-rusher in the country. Better still, WVU has a big pivotal nonconference game Sept. 24, when the LSU Tigers visit Morgantown. The Tigers should be in the top 10 at that point in the season and maybe even No. 1 overall if they beat the Oregon Ducks in the season opener. That would be a huge win, potentially, for West Virginia. Would it be enough to vault them over an unbeaten SEC or even Big 12 champ? Doubtful, but if there is a bunch of one-loss AQ champs out there, an unbeaten WVU squad with a win over LSU may intrigue pollsters. So, at 50-1, the Mountaineers are a pretty intriguing pick.
<OFFER>
2. Texas A&M Aggies
Opened 40-1; Current 40-1
The Aggies are loaded on offense at the skill positions, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill brought a spark to the attack once he took over at midseason. The offensive line, which was scary young last year, now has some seasoning. The defense will miss Von Miller, but defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is good at confusing offenses. What I don't like so much about this pick is how the schedule sets up. The Aggies have to go to play the Oklahoma Sooners, who are a dramatically tougher team at home than on the road. Also, they play two other top 15-caliber teams in Oklahoma State and Arkansas, and those games are in back-to-back weeks. At least they do get the archrival Texas Longhorns at home. Still, at 40-1, they are worth a look.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks
Opened 50-1; Current: 30-1
The SEC has won five consecutive BCS national titles and six of the last eight. You can't dismiss that kind of power. Of the teams into the margin (meaning lighter than 10-1, which removes the Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU and the Florida Gators from discussion), Arkansas has the most firepower. The Hogs have the best group of receivers in the country; one terrific running back in Knile Davis; another capable one in Ronnie Wingo; and a promising quarterback in Tyler Wilson. They also have playmakers on defense in Jake Bequette, Jerry Franklin, Jerrico Nelson and Tramain Thomas. The bad news: They have to go to Bama and LSU and also face A&M in Arlington, Texas. But if anyone in the country is capable of overcoming a loss to get to the BCS title game, it's an SEC West team.
4. Arizona State Sun Devils
Opened 175-1; Current 75-1
I know they didn't even go to a bowl game last year, but the Sun Devils have some werewolves on D, led by Vontaze Burfict. Can they play with a lot more discipline? Who knows. Dennis Erickson has won two national titles, though. His young QB, Brock Osweiler, also isn't lacking for confidence or playmaking skills. They do have to go to Oregon, right after going to play the Utah Utes, but at least they get the USC Trojans at home and don't have the Stanford Cardinal on the schedule. I don't have them in my preseason top 15, but then again few 75-1 or longer teams have the kind of talent the Sun Devils have.
5. Michigan State Spartans
Opened 50-1; Current: 50-1
The Spartans are listed as more of a long shot than five other Big Ten teams, including archrival Michigan. That doesn't seem right to me. MSU has a very good quarterback in Kirk Cousins and an outstanding group of RBs, led by Edwin Baker. They do have to replace a few key guys on defense (starting with LB Greg Jones), but so do most teams in the Big Ten.
They have an imposing defensive line -- led by Jerel Worthy, who is a dominating presence, and rising star DE William Gholston. MSU does have to play on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Northwestern Wildcats, Notre Dame and Ohio State, but keep in mind they'll play the Buckeyes while they'll still be without those five key starters serving suspensions. They also could face an Irish team in Week 3 that may be without its best offensive player, wide receiver Michael Floyd, depending on how heavily Brian Kelly punishes his star following Kelly's DUI arrest.
6. Boise State Broncos
Opened 15-1; Current 15-1
[+] Enlarge
<CITE>AP Photo/Don Ryan</CITE>Kellen Moore and the Broncos need a win over Georgia to have a shot at the national title.
The Broncos are returning one of the most productive QBs in college football history in Kellen Moore. He has an insane 99-19 TD-INT ratio. Moore can also lean on a workhorse running back in the explosive Doug Martin. Boise did lose two outstanding receivers (Austin Pettis and Titus Young), but Tyler Shoemaker's steady play turned heads this spring, as did the rangy Geraldo Hiwat. Up front, Nate ****** is an All-American candidate on the offensive line, while defensive tackle Billy Winn anchors the D along with Shea McClellin and Tyrone Crawford.
Obviously, the Broncos will need a lot of help when it comes to edging out conference champs from AQ conferences with one or zero losses. I suspect an unbeaten WVU team with a win over a top-10 LSU team would jump over an unbeaten Boise. Georgia is a key opponent for the Broncos. The two teams play in Atlanta in the opener, and BSU not only needs to win that game but they need the Bulldogs to go on to have a strong season in which they at least crack the top 25, and maybe even win the SEC East. After that, there's not much opportunity for the Broncos to build style points, with the possible exception of a Nov. 12 visit from TCU.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Opened 30-1; Current 30-1
Quarterback Brandon Weeden and his star wide receiver Justin Blackmon opted to return. Holgorsen did not. Running back Kendall Hunter is also gone, but almost everything else for the explosive Cowboys attack is back. They get OU in Stillwater, but they also have to visit A&M, Texas, the Missouri Tigers and Texas Tech Red Raiders.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Opened 40-1; Current: 25-1
If the Dawgs were still at 40-1, they'd probably be a spot or two higher on this list. I'm on record as picking them to win the SEC East. I expect QB Aaron Murray to emerge as a star and for Isaiah Crowell, the nation's top-rated RB recruit, and a healthy Caleb King to boost one of the SEC's worst running games. They have talent on the defense, and it's Year 2 in Todd Grantham's 3-4 scheme.
Opening at Boise scares me if I'm a Georgia fan, but the good news is there is no LSU, Arkansas or Alabama on the regular-season slate, and those are the three most talented teams in the league. Also, I doubt that any of UGA's four road opponents (Mississippi Rebels, Tennessee Volunteers, Vanderbilt Commodores and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets) will be ranked in the preseason top 25.
9. TCU Horned Frogs
Opened 40-1; Current: 40-1
Gary Patterson's team ran the table last season and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. It did lose a lot of terrific players, starting with quarterback Andy Dalton, who seemed to have played for them dating back to the LaDainian Tomlinson days. The new guys under center -- Casey Pachall and Matt Brown -- are talented. TCU still has playmakers on D with Tanner Brock and Tank Carder returning, and Patterson said he thinks his defensive line could be even better this year than it was in 2010.
Even with last season's run being as impressive as it was, I'm not sure the Horned Frogs have enough on the schedule to push past teams in the polls. However, if Boise handles Georgia and can get into the top 5 by mid-November, a win by the Horned Frogs on the blue turf would get some voters' attention.
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
Opened 30-1; Current: 30-1
The entire backfield has to be replaced, as Frank Beamer goes from the winningest QB in school history (Tyrod Taylor) to supersized Logan Thomas, a 6-foot-6, 245-pounder who has some around there evoking comparisons to Cam Newton. There's no doubting Thomas' talent, but can he be consistent enough to lead a team into the top 5 for a season? I'm not worried about the running back position, where David Wilson has dynamic ability.
On defense, CB Jayron Hosley is a stud and DT Derrick Hopkins and DE James Gayle were nearly unblockable this spring. They don't face FSU in the regular season, and the rest of the most talented teams in the conference (North Carolina Tar Heels, Miami (FL) Hurricanes, Boston College Eagles and Clemson Tigers) have to come to Blacksburg this year. The toughest road trips will be at Georgia Tech and the East Carolina Pirates.
Around college football
" As you'll hear in our podcast, Ed and I agreed on WVU as being the best value on the board. I agree with his point about how significant a team's schedule is when you sort out preseason speculation.
I was surprised at the value he and other Vegas oddsmakers seem to put on those preseason college football annuals, as you'll hear in the podcast. My point on that is that while I enjoy reading them all and find them informative several of them "close" or go to print so far in advance that key information, whether it's injuries to starting players or off-field news, breaks after publication. I'm not saying those magazines are obsolete, but there is just so much more information out there now, thanks to the internet and the way things are covered, that those magazines aren't as significant as they were in the 1990s or earlier.
That leads me to something I brought up, which is the news regarding the status of Notre Dame star Floyd. Salmons said an offensive lineman is probably worth three times the amount of a wide receiver. I recall seeing or hearing another oddsmaker make a similar point about a missing offensive lineman being worth more points in a spread than some skill position guys.
Such things are hard to quantify because the sample size for college football is so small. Take the example of former Georgia standout A.J. Green, who was sidelined for the first four games in 2010. The Bulldogs averaged 26 points per game without him and almost 35 points per game with him. You could, however, say part of that is also related to young QB Murray getting settled.
To test that theory, I asked three college defensive coordinators how they would view the potential impact of losing a standout receiver versus losing a standout offensive lineman (assuming that an average player would step in to replace each).
Two of the three DCs said the wide receiver would be worth more points to the offense. "You can hide an O-lineman much easier than a wide receiver," one said. "I would generally be more excited to see an opponent lose a receiver."
Said the second defensive coordinator: "The receiver has more impact because it changes the way you defend them. Legit big-time wide receivers affect everything, including how you play the run, how you defend the other side of the field, etc. The real issue might be how many 'big-name' receivers are truly good enough to alter game plans?"
I would say Floyd would be one of them.
The DC who thought the lineman was more of a factor than the WR said that it's because he's "an every-down guy. Even a big-time receiver doesn't get involved in every play."
What do you all think? Agree or disagree?
• Northwestern announced a new contract for coach Pat Fitzgerald that runs through the 2020 season. Obviously, 2020 seems like a very, very long time from now, but think about this: At the end of that contract, Fitzgerald (34-29) will still only be 45, which is actually younger than all but two of the current coaches in the Big Ten (Bo Pelini and Bret Bielema).
If I'm a Wildcats fan, I'm elated by this news. According to this tweet by NU ace beat writer Teddy Greenstein, who first reported this story, a key part of the extension was the "potential for lakefront [football] practice facility that NU source called potential 'game-changer' for recruiting."
• The big news out of Mizzou is that Blaine Gabbert's little brother, Tyler, who was battling for the starting QB job, has opted to transfer. Dave Matter writes that given the history of recent quarterback derbies, it shouldn't be shocking that the younger Gabbert is bolting.
That's 16 quarterback signees in 11 recruiting classes with only four who have exhausted their eligibility without changing positions: Smith, Coleman, Daniel and Patton. College teams are always rolling the dice when recruiting quarterbacks, especially when signing multiple QBs in one class. When Gary Pinkel signs two quarterbacks in the same class, history tells him one could very well transfer. History has repeated itself again.
Next question: Where does Tyler Gabbert land? When his family requested his release from MU, they asked that he be allowed to transfer to five schools: Arizona, Clemson, Iowa, Louisville and Wake Forest. He'll weigh multiple factors before making a decision, but it's worth looking at the quarterback situation at each school. Keep in mind, per NCAA transfer rules, Gabbert must sit out the 2011 season, after which he'll have three years of eligibility at the school he chooses.
• Florida freshman running back Mike Blakely, who enrolled in January, becomes the fourth player to leave the program since Will Muschamp took over. Blakely, the No. 7 RB prospect in the nation in 2011, will have to sit out this season to move.
"Mike has come to the conclusion that the University of Florida is not where he wants to play football," Muschamp said in a statement on the school's website. "We wish him the best of luck."
• Penn State landed a "blue collar" guy in offensive lineman recruit Brian Gala, reports Matt Bracken.
Last weekend, Gaia accomplished that goal, committing to Penn State over offers from Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, Tennessee, Wake Forest and West Virginia.
"It feels good," Gaia said Monday. "A lot of pressure off me right now."
"Penn State has gone into a place where they have had success before and landed a prospect who could potentially help them on either side of the line of scrimmage," ESPN's Craig Haubert said. "Gaia is someone we project to guard, but it appears the Nittany Lions are looking to use him on defense. While we feel offense may be the slightly better fit it is not unreasonable for Penn State to project this tough customer on defense. He plays with a nasty attitude and physically is a kid you can tell doesn't shy away from time in the weight room. He displays good initial quickness and the ability to come off the ball low and be explosive. He is active with his hands in taking on and shedding from blockers."
Bruce Feldman
ESPN Insider
About a week ago, while I was in Las Vegas, I wandered into the Sports Book at Mandalay Bay and picked up a sheet detailing the odds to win the BCS national championship. I was surprised at quite a few things I saw on there. The biggest eyebrow-raiser was seeing the Ohio State Buckeyes, who opened at 20-1, now down to a 10-1 pick. That OSU will be without five key starters, including quarterback Terrelle Pryor, for the first five games of the season was one thing, but the cloud hanging over Buckeyes coach Jim Tressel, thanks to an NCAA investigation, was another.
I later spoke about Ohio State and some other curious NCAA odds with my colleague Chad Millman, who authors the always interesting "Behind the Bets" blog on Insider with Ed Salmons, an oddsmaker at the Las Vegas Hilton. You can listen to our conversation on the podcast, in which we talk about how the "experts" arrive at their lines in these types of things as well as the merits of the Buckeyes, Notre Dame Fighting Irish, Florida State Seminoles and other programs. I suspect Ed's feelings on West Virginia coach Bill Stewart may resonate with some folks and rile up some others.
With a nod to Chad and Ed, this week's Top 10 list consists of the best "values" for BCS title bets (all odds are from the Mandalay Bay/MGM sheet I picked up 10 days ago):
1. West Virginia Mountaineers
Opened 60-1; Current: 50-1
OK, you've read some of this here before: I am a big believer in Dana Holgorsen. He is as sharp an offensive mind as there is working in college football today. What he did last year at Oklahoma State was remarkable. Now he inherits a team with some promising young skill talent (remember the name Tavon Austin) and a gifted QB with starting experience in Geno Smith. Last season, WVU ranked 78th in scoring. Expect a huge jump. This team is going to pile up points and roll through the Big East.
In defensive end Bruce Irvin, the Mountaineers may have the best pass-rusher in the country. Better still, WVU has a big pivotal nonconference game Sept. 24, when the LSU Tigers visit Morgantown. The Tigers should be in the top 10 at that point in the season and maybe even No. 1 overall if they beat the Oregon Ducks in the season opener. That would be a huge win, potentially, for West Virginia. Would it be enough to vault them over an unbeaten SEC or even Big 12 champ? Doubtful, but if there is a bunch of one-loss AQ champs out there, an unbeaten WVU squad with a win over LSU may intrigue pollsters. So, at 50-1, the Mountaineers are a pretty intriguing pick.
<OFFER>
2. Texas A&M Aggies
Opened 40-1; Current 40-1
The Aggies are loaded on offense at the skill positions, and quarterback Ryan Tannehill brought a spark to the attack once he took over at midseason. The offensive line, which was scary young last year, now has some seasoning. The defense will miss Von Miller, but defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter is good at confusing offenses. What I don't like so much about this pick is how the schedule sets up. The Aggies have to go to play the Oklahoma Sooners, who are a dramatically tougher team at home than on the road. Also, they play two other top 15-caliber teams in Oklahoma State and Arkansas, and those games are in back-to-back weeks. At least they do get the archrival Texas Longhorns at home. Still, at 40-1, they are worth a look.
3. Arkansas Razorbacks
Opened 50-1; Current: 30-1
The SEC has won five consecutive BCS national titles and six of the last eight. You can't dismiss that kind of power. Of the teams into the margin (meaning lighter than 10-1, which removes the Alabama Crimson Tide, LSU and the Florida Gators from discussion), Arkansas has the most firepower. The Hogs have the best group of receivers in the country; one terrific running back in Knile Davis; another capable one in Ronnie Wingo; and a promising quarterback in Tyler Wilson. They also have playmakers on defense in Jake Bequette, Jerry Franklin, Jerrico Nelson and Tramain Thomas. The bad news: They have to go to Bama and LSU and also face A&M in Arlington, Texas. But if anyone in the country is capable of overcoming a loss to get to the BCS title game, it's an SEC West team.
4. Arizona State Sun Devils
Opened 175-1; Current 75-1
I know they didn't even go to a bowl game last year, but the Sun Devils have some werewolves on D, led by Vontaze Burfict. Can they play with a lot more discipline? Who knows. Dennis Erickson has won two national titles, though. His young QB, Brock Osweiler, also isn't lacking for confidence or playmaking skills. They do have to go to Oregon, right after going to play the Utah Utes, but at least they get the USC Trojans at home and don't have the Stanford Cardinal on the schedule. I don't have them in my preseason top 15, but then again few 75-1 or longer teams have the kind of talent the Sun Devils have.
5. Michigan State Spartans
Opened 50-1; Current: 50-1
The Spartans are listed as more of a long shot than five other Big Ten teams, including archrival Michigan. That doesn't seem right to me. MSU has a very good quarterback in Kirk Cousins and an outstanding group of RBs, led by Edwin Baker. They do have to replace a few key guys on defense (starting with LB Greg Jones), but so do most teams in the Big Ten.
They have an imposing defensive line -- led by Jerel Worthy, who is a dominating presence, and rising star DE William Gholston. MSU does have to play on the road against the Nebraska Cornhuskers, Iowa Hawkeyes, Northwestern Wildcats, Notre Dame and Ohio State, but keep in mind they'll play the Buckeyes while they'll still be without those five key starters serving suspensions. They also could face an Irish team in Week 3 that may be without its best offensive player, wide receiver Michael Floyd, depending on how heavily Brian Kelly punishes his star following Kelly's DUI arrest.
6. Boise State Broncos
Opened 15-1; Current 15-1
[+] Enlarge
The Broncos are returning one of the most productive QBs in college football history in Kellen Moore. He has an insane 99-19 TD-INT ratio. Moore can also lean on a workhorse running back in the explosive Doug Martin. Boise did lose two outstanding receivers (Austin Pettis and Titus Young), but Tyler Shoemaker's steady play turned heads this spring, as did the rangy Geraldo Hiwat. Up front, Nate ****** is an All-American candidate on the offensive line, while defensive tackle Billy Winn anchors the D along with Shea McClellin and Tyrone Crawford.
Obviously, the Broncos will need a lot of help when it comes to edging out conference champs from AQ conferences with one or zero losses. I suspect an unbeaten WVU team with a win over a top-10 LSU team would jump over an unbeaten Boise. Georgia is a key opponent for the Broncos. The two teams play in Atlanta in the opener, and BSU not only needs to win that game but they need the Bulldogs to go on to have a strong season in which they at least crack the top 25, and maybe even win the SEC East. After that, there's not much opportunity for the Broncos to build style points, with the possible exception of a Nov. 12 visit from TCU.
7. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Opened 30-1; Current 30-1
Quarterback Brandon Weeden and his star wide receiver Justin Blackmon opted to return. Holgorsen did not. Running back Kendall Hunter is also gone, but almost everything else for the explosive Cowboys attack is back. They get OU in Stillwater, but they also have to visit A&M, Texas, the Missouri Tigers and Texas Tech Red Raiders.
8. Georgia Bulldogs
Opened 40-1; Current: 25-1
If the Dawgs were still at 40-1, they'd probably be a spot or two higher on this list. I'm on record as picking them to win the SEC East. I expect QB Aaron Murray to emerge as a star and for Isaiah Crowell, the nation's top-rated RB recruit, and a healthy Caleb King to boost one of the SEC's worst running games. They have talent on the defense, and it's Year 2 in Todd Grantham's 3-4 scheme.
Opening at Boise scares me if I'm a Georgia fan, but the good news is there is no LSU, Arkansas or Alabama on the regular-season slate, and those are the three most talented teams in the league. Also, I doubt that any of UGA's four road opponents (Mississippi Rebels, Tennessee Volunteers, Vanderbilt Commodores and Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets) will be ranked in the preseason top 25.
9. TCU Horned Frogs
Opened 40-1; Current: 40-1
Gary Patterson's team ran the table last season and beat Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl. It did lose a lot of terrific players, starting with quarterback Andy Dalton, who seemed to have played for them dating back to the LaDainian Tomlinson days. The new guys under center -- Casey Pachall and Matt Brown -- are talented. TCU still has playmakers on D with Tanner Brock and Tank Carder returning, and Patterson said he thinks his defensive line could be even better this year than it was in 2010.
Even with last season's run being as impressive as it was, I'm not sure the Horned Frogs have enough on the schedule to push past teams in the polls. However, if Boise handles Georgia and can get into the top 5 by mid-November, a win by the Horned Frogs on the blue turf would get some voters' attention.
10. Virginia Tech Hokies
Opened 30-1; Current: 30-1
The entire backfield has to be replaced, as Frank Beamer goes from the winningest QB in school history (Tyrod Taylor) to supersized Logan Thomas, a 6-foot-6, 245-pounder who has some around there evoking comparisons to Cam Newton. There's no doubting Thomas' talent, but can he be consistent enough to lead a team into the top 5 for a season? I'm not worried about the running back position, where David Wilson has dynamic ability.
On defense, CB Jayron Hosley is a stud and DT Derrick Hopkins and DE James Gayle were nearly unblockable this spring. They don't face FSU in the regular season, and the rest of the most talented teams in the conference (North Carolina Tar Heels, Miami (FL) Hurricanes, Boston College Eagles and Clemson Tigers) have to come to Blacksburg this year. The toughest road trips will be at Georgia Tech and the East Carolina Pirates.
Around college football
" As you'll hear in our podcast, Ed and I agreed on WVU as being the best value on the board. I agree with his point about how significant a team's schedule is when you sort out preseason speculation.
I was surprised at the value he and other Vegas oddsmakers seem to put on those preseason college football annuals, as you'll hear in the podcast. My point on that is that while I enjoy reading them all and find them informative several of them "close" or go to print so far in advance that key information, whether it's injuries to starting players or off-field news, breaks after publication. I'm not saying those magazines are obsolete, but there is just so much more information out there now, thanks to the internet and the way things are covered, that those magazines aren't as significant as they were in the 1990s or earlier.
That leads me to something I brought up, which is the news regarding the status of Notre Dame star Floyd. Salmons said an offensive lineman is probably worth three times the amount of a wide receiver. I recall seeing or hearing another oddsmaker make a similar point about a missing offensive lineman being worth more points in a spread than some skill position guys.
Such things are hard to quantify because the sample size for college football is so small. Take the example of former Georgia standout A.J. Green, who was sidelined for the first four games in 2010. The Bulldogs averaged 26 points per game without him and almost 35 points per game with him. You could, however, say part of that is also related to young QB Murray getting settled.
To test that theory, I asked three college defensive coordinators how they would view the potential impact of losing a standout receiver versus losing a standout offensive lineman (assuming that an average player would step in to replace each).
Two of the three DCs said the wide receiver would be worth more points to the offense. "You can hide an O-lineman much easier than a wide receiver," one said. "I would generally be more excited to see an opponent lose a receiver."
Said the second defensive coordinator: "The receiver has more impact because it changes the way you defend them. Legit big-time wide receivers affect everything, including how you play the run, how you defend the other side of the field, etc. The real issue might be how many 'big-name' receivers are truly good enough to alter game plans?"
I would say Floyd would be one of them.
The DC who thought the lineman was more of a factor than the WR said that it's because he's "an every-down guy. Even a big-time receiver doesn't get involved in every play."
What do you all think? Agree or disagree?
• Northwestern announced a new contract for coach Pat Fitzgerald that runs through the 2020 season. Obviously, 2020 seems like a very, very long time from now, but think about this: At the end of that contract, Fitzgerald (34-29) will still only be 45, which is actually younger than all but two of the current coaches in the Big Ten (Bo Pelini and Bret Bielema).
If I'm a Wildcats fan, I'm elated by this news. According to this tweet by NU ace beat writer Teddy Greenstein, who first reported this story, a key part of the extension was the "potential for lakefront [football] practice facility that NU source called potential 'game-changer' for recruiting."
• The big news out of Mizzou is that Blaine Gabbert's little brother, Tyler, who was battling for the starting QB job, has opted to transfer. Dave Matter writes that given the history of recent quarterback derbies, it shouldn't be shocking that the younger Gabbert is bolting.
That's 16 quarterback signees in 11 recruiting classes with only four who have exhausted their eligibility without changing positions: Smith, Coleman, Daniel and Patton. College teams are always rolling the dice when recruiting quarterbacks, especially when signing multiple QBs in one class. When Gary Pinkel signs two quarterbacks in the same class, history tells him one could very well transfer. History has repeated itself again.
Next question: Where does Tyler Gabbert land? When his family requested his release from MU, they asked that he be allowed to transfer to five schools: Arizona, Clemson, Iowa, Louisville and Wake Forest. He'll weigh multiple factors before making a decision, but it's worth looking at the quarterback situation at each school. Keep in mind, per NCAA transfer rules, Gabbert must sit out the 2011 season, after which he'll have three years of eligibility at the school he chooses.
• Florida freshman running back Mike Blakely, who enrolled in January, becomes the fourth player to leave the program since Will Muschamp took over. Blakely, the No. 7 RB prospect in the nation in 2011, will have to sit out this season to move.
"Mike has come to the conclusion that the University of Florida is not where he wants to play football," Muschamp said in a statement on the school's website. "We wish him the best of luck."
• Penn State landed a "blue collar" guy in offensive lineman recruit Brian Gala, reports Matt Bracken.
Last weekend, Gaia accomplished that goal, committing to Penn State over offers from Connecticut, Iowa, Michigan, Rutgers, Tennessee, Wake Forest and West Virginia.
"It feels good," Gaia said Monday. "A lot of pressure off me right now."
"Penn State has gone into a place where they have had success before and landed a prospect who could potentially help them on either side of the line of scrimmage," ESPN's Craig Haubert said. "Gaia is someone we project to guard, but it appears the Nittany Lions are looking to use him on defense. While we feel offense may be the slightly better fit it is not unreasonable for Penn State to project this tough customer on defense. He plays with a nasty attitude and physically is a kid you can tell doesn't shy away from time in the weight room. He displays good initial quickness and the ability to come off the ball low and be explosive. He is active with his hands in taking on and shedding from blockers."
