Looking at the last 5 Best Picture winners tells you a lot:
81st Annual Academy Awards - Slumdog Millionaire
80th Annual Academy Awards - No Country for Old Men
79th Annual Academy Awards - The Departed
78th Annual Academy Awards - Crash
77th Annual Academy Awards - Million Dollar Baby
Looking at the last 5 Best Picture winners tells you a lot:
81st Annual Academy Awards - Slumdog Millionaire
80th Annual Academy Awards - No Country for Old Men
79th Annual Academy Awards - The Departed
78th Annual Academy Awards - Crash
77th Annual Academy Awards - Million Dollar Baby