VaultedTreehouse
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I will be there tomorrow bright and early at the rail. Took the day off today just to prepare for the entire card. Good luck tomorrow boys.
1. Nolan's Cat- Romans trainee has yet to win a race, let alone a graded stakes. He gives every indication he will get the distance, albeit slowly as he has been finishing in virtually every race he's been in. Rail post not a negative as he drops back anyway and won't have to gun from the bell. Comes out of the same maiden race as AP Arrow and lost only by a half a length. But remember that was a maiden race. Pass.
2. Pinpoint- This horse could've made you some serious money if yoy parlayed him his last 3 starts. After an atrocious debut in which he lost by 23 lengths, he has reeled off 3 wins in a row at 24-1, 14-1, and 4-1. His race in the Sir Barton, the same race that Sarava used to win the Belmont was good, not great. He pressed the pace and held on. Of the 3 Zito horses, this is the one I like the least. Even if the pace is dawdling, remember, by Peaks and Valleys(Mt. Livermore), he has a decidely speed pedigree. 12 furlongs in a fast time is a tough sell at this point. No thanks.
3. AP Arrow- His daddy won the Belmont for fun back in the early 90's, so the distance shouldn't be a problem. Just won his first race and it was at 10 furlongs, but in a slow time. You get Bailey up who is 28% at Belmont. Lukas has also had a good meet so far. This horse might stick around for awhile. Could see him underneath only to pick up some pieces in the 3rd or 4th slow. Any higher looks like a reach at this point.
4.Southern Africa- Very workmanlike performance in the Lonestar Derby last time. He looped the field and pulled away for his fastest race to date. Ran behind eventual 2 year old champ Decan's Moon a few times last year and wasn't embarrassed at all. Even though he closes his races I really don't like his pedigree going 12 furlongs. He better hope his dam's side which has grass and distance on it can offset the miler type status of daddy. Not impossible, but demand value. Works have been favorable since his last race.
5. Giacomo- Pegged him as third in his last race and he came through in 3rd. That was about the extent of my success in the Preakness, however. Very consistent, usually runs his race which is an upper 90's Beyer every time. That might not win this but he has underneath written all over him. Only negative is if he drops too far back, b/c the pace in here might not be that fast. Horses who have run in all 3 Triple Crown races have a history of doing well in this race. He should too. Can't fault someone for playing him on top. I will play him underneath in exotics.
6.Watchmon- Reynolds a bit cold this meet. He does have a slow second place finish on the chart in his last over this surface. Like the minute flat work the other day. Don't like anything else. He will be a price and would pay for your mortgage but he is a reach at best in here.
7. Andromeda's Hero- My pick in here for this race is this horse. Let's look at the positives first. I actually played this horse a bit in the Derby b/c I felt a bomb would win it. Chose the wrong bomb there as Giacomo stole the show at roughly the same 50-1. Did pass horses to finish eigth after dropping back early in the race. He has galloped out very well in each of his past 3 races and gives the distinct impression of a horse who wants added distance. Now to the works. Have a friend up in Saratoga who is in the know at the training track. He has trained like a champ up there while staying out of the opressive heat down in the Tri-state for the past 2 weeks. His May 27th 5 furlong breeze was a full second faster than the next horse. Not crazy about Bejarano up as I haven't liked the way he has ridden lately but the price is right here. Hoping for higher than 15-1, but not sure I'll get it. Zito will not be shut out of the Triple Crown this year.
8. Reverberate- Ran a really good race last time out to Oratoy who freaked and ran a huge race. The second best lst race figure to Afleet Alex and should take some money becasue of it. He's up on the pace in his races and the pace here doesn't look too hot, b/c the other confirmed speed horses are a bit on the slow side. If he can slow it down enough up front he might have enough at the end. Might. 2 weeks off after running a big top is not my kind of horse in this race. My guess is he fades down the lane.
9. Afleet Alex- I took a stand against him in the Preakness and boy was I wrong. You just don't see horses stumble that badly and still win pulling away. He was awesome. Worked an incredible 4 miles the other day in rough heat galloping around the big oval. He has an every other race look in his last couple which should give some pause. He can come down a few pegs and still win this but I have to play against him at 4-5 which is what he will be. I'm sorry but if Smarty could lose last year, this horse sure can too. I admire him b/c 7 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third in 11 starts is pretty damn good.
10. Indy Storm- The last of the Zito tained contingent who sure has gobbled up ground late in his races. Prado takes the mount and his last race was ok. You will get a price and you have a big time distance pedigree. Some slow races do turn me off a bit but maybe he is improving at the right time. He'll pass some horses but I doubt he'll pass enough to make a dent here.
11. Chekhov- About as visually impressive as you could be 2 starts back in breaking his maiden. Really pulled away and as a result was hammered down in the Peter Pan. Ran into a buzzsaw that day and closers didn't exactly run well in that race. Nice breeze since and Biancone knows what he's doing here. Convinced this horse runs a good race on Saturday. Post means nothing people, we are going a mile and half here. Third start in the form cycle says go. Paired up figures says a step forward. Pedigree says he can get the distance. Top 4 finish.
Picks.
1. Andromedas's Hero
2. Chekov
3. Giacomo/Afleet Alex (will play both in this spot)
Really like a price in the Manhatten. Relaxed Gesture's last two races, although not fast enough to win this were super impressive. Clement has really picked it up this meet and you're looking at a hors who ran big numbers in Europe on the turf. At 10-1 or better this horse is real good bet. My seal of approval all over this one. My best bet on the card for a price.
1. Nolan's Cat- Romans trainee has yet to win a race, let alone a graded stakes. He gives every indication he will get the distance, albeit slowly as he has been finishing in virtually every race he's been in. Rail post not a negative as he drops back anyway and won't have to gun from the bell. Comes out of the same maiden race as AP Arrow and lost only by a half a length. But remember that was a maiden race. Pass.
2. Pinpoint- This horse could've made you some serious money if yoy parlayed him his last 3 starts. After an atrocious debut in which he lost by 23 lengths, he has reeled off 3 wins in a row at 24-1, 14-1, and 4-1. His race in the Sir Barton, the same race that Sarava used to win the Belmont was good, not great. He pressed the pace and held on. Of the 3 Zito horses, this is the one I like the least. Even if the pace is dawdling, remember, by Peaks and Valleys(Mt. Livermore), he has a decidely speed pedigree. 12 furlongs in a fast time is a tough sell at this point. No thanks.
3. AP Arrow- His daddy won the Belmont for fun back in the early 90's, so the distance shouldn't be a problem. Just won his first race and it was at 10 furlongs, but in a slow time. You get Bailey up who is 28% at Belmont. Lukas has also had a good meet so far. This horse might stick around for awhile. Could see him underneath only to pick up some pieces in the 3rd or 4th slow. Any higher looks like a reach at this point.
4.Southern Africa- Very workmanlike performance in the Lonestar Derby last time. He looped the field and pulled away for his fastest race to date. Ran behind eventual 2 year old champ Decan's Moon a few times last year and wasn't embarrassed at all. Even though he closes his races I really don't like his pedigree going 12 furlongs. He better hope his dam's side which has grass and distance on it can offset the miler type status of daddy. Not impossible, but demand value. Works have been favorable since his last race.
5. Giacomo- Pegged him as third in his last race and he came through in 3rd. That was about the extent of my success in the Preakness, however. Very consistent, usually runs his race which is an upper 90's Beyer every time. That might not win this but he has underneath written all over him. Only negative is if he drops too far back, b/c the pace in here might not be that fast. Horses who have run in all 3 Triple Crown races have a history of doing well in this race. He should too. Can't fault someone for playing him on top. I will play him underneath in exotics.
6.Watchmon- Reynolds a bit cold this meet. He does have a slow second place finish on the chart in his last over this surface. Like the minute flat work the other day. Don't like anything else. He will be a price and would pay for your mortgage but he is a reach at best in here.
7. Andromeda's Hero- My pick in here for this race is this horse. Let's look at the positives first. I actually played this horse a bit in the Derby b/c I felt a bomb would win it. Chose the wrong bomb there as Giacomo stole the show at roughly the same 50-1. Did pass horses to finish eigth after dropping back early in the race. He has galloped out very well in each of his past 3 races and gives the distinct impression of a horse who wants added distance. Now to the works. Have a friend up in Saratoga who is in the know at the training track. He has trained like a champ up there while staying out of the opressive heat down in the Tri-state for the past 2 weeks. His May 27th 5 furlong breeze was a full second faster than the next horse. Not crazy about Bejarano up as I haven't liked the way he has ridden lately but the price is right here. Hoping for higher than 15-1, but not sure I'll get it. Zito will not be shut out of the Triple Crown this year.
8. Reverberate- Ran a really good race last time out to Oratoy who freaked and ran a huge race. The second best lst race figure to Afleet Alex and should take some money becasue of it. He's up on the pace in his races and the pace here doesn't look too hot, b/c the other confirmed speed horses are a bit on the slow side. If he can slow it down enough up front he might have enough at the end. Might. 2 weeks off after running a big top is not my kind of horse in this race. My guess is he fades down the lane.
9. Afleet Alex- I took a stand against him in the Preakness and boy was I wrong. You just don't see horses stumble that badly and still win pulling away. He was awesome. Worked an incredible 4 miles the other day in rough heat galloping around the big oval. He has an every other race look in his last couple which should give some pause. He can come down a few pegs and still win this but I have to play against him at 4-5 which is what he will be. I'm sorry but if Smarty could lose last year, this horse sure can too. I admire him b/c 7 wins, 2 seconds, and 1 third in 11 starts is pretty damn good.
10. Indy Storm- The last of the Zito tained contingent who sure has gobbled up ground late in his races. Prado takes the mount and his last race was ok. You will get a price and you have a big time distance pedigree. Some slow races do turn me off a bit but maybe he is improving at the right time. He'll pass some horses but I doubt he'll pass enough to make a dent here.
11. Chekhov- About as visually impressive as you could be 2 starts back in breaking his maiden. Really pulled away and as a result was hammered down in the Peter Pan. Ran into a buzzsaw that day and closers didn't exactly run well in that race. Nice breeze since and Biancone knows what he's doing here. Convinced this horse runs a good race on Saturday. Post means nothing people, we are going a mile and half here. Third start in the form cycle says go. Paired up figures says a step forward. Pedigree says he can get the distance. Top 4 finish.
Picks.
1. Andromedas's Hero
2. Chekov
3. Giacomo/Afleet Alex (will play both in this spot)
Really like a price in the Manhatten. Relaxed Gesture's last two races, although not fast enough to win this were super impressive. Clement has really picked it up this meet and you're looking at a hors who ran big numbers in Europe on the turf. At 10-1 or better this horse is real good bet. My seal of approval all over this one. My best bet on the card for a price.
arty: 
much appreciation!
