Belmont Analysis by ATP

[ATP]

Looks like a great betting day with a lot of low line favs with none that I trust at all

1st

1. 88 6-18 on turf, claimed in last for 60K, now runs for 50K, tried to wire them in last and didnt work

2. 87 7-0-0-1 this yr, comes in from CD, has run some nice figures, can hit board with a trip

3. 79 competes well at lower levels, this is too steep

4. 79 been off since july of 06, works are nothing special, ill pass

5. 85 8-0-0-1 this yr and only 2-27 on turf, been facing lesser and doing little

6. 85 2-7 on turf, beaten only 6 lengths in last by Makderah, good prep for this

7. 86 consistently solid figures, gets 4th rider in as many races for Tagg, 3-7 at distance, wants to be on lead and may shake loose in here

8. 108 has met honey rider, film maker and angara, but first start since october, 0-6 last season, prob fav coming out of all those stake races, towers over the rest but fittness is a question at a short price

9. 71 MTO- last effort was bad, needs rain and scratches

7-6-8-1
​

2nd

1. W mott half of entry by hook and ladder, ran nice work for debut

1A. tony dutrow half, ran a bullet work

2. went backwards at 5F, now tackles 6.5

3. trainer is 7-27 at meet, works arent bad

4. beaten bad in debut

5, trainer is 3-36, all works are out of town, ill go against

6. rick dutrow and bejarano is a potent tag team, last work wasnt good but it was on off track

7. not into the breeding or connections here

8. ran very well in debut with 4 horses on the wire, gets Coa for contessa and winning move stable, should get honest effort here
​

8-6-1-1A
​

3rd

1. 65 beaten by no less than 10 lengths in last 5 starts, 1-11 lifetime, no shot

1A. 75 ran bad vs better in last, back where she belongs but only 2-8 and 1-4 at distance, beatable entry, can close some into what looks like a lot of speed

2. 79 5-2-2-0 this yr and 2-3 at distance won on off track, ran bullet work july 7th at 4F, is a price play

3. 74 on board in 9 of 12 career starts 1-1 at distance, will be on or near front

4. 86 7-2-2-2 this yr, gd at the distance, claimed for 40K, now 75K, little steep incline

5. 64 2-10 at distance likes the lead wont give these the slip so i dont like, well up in class as well

6. 71 just broke maiden after several uninspiring speed tries, too much speed in here for her to handle
​

2-4-3
​

4th

1. 80 ships in from colonial where he ran two big races from on and off the pace just missing in both

2. 65 has come to life since switching to turf, nearly got to dantastic in last been going faster times than some

3. 74 will close, ran fast late in last, due to break maiden soon, 3-3 at distance

4. 48 ran 2nd only try at the distance, may want lead in here, has realistic shot at a healthy price

5. 69 0-15 gets johhny v, closes stronger than many, value

6. 32 romped in all

7. 44 no way

8. 54 ran ok w/prado but still needs major improvement

9. 46 speed tired twice, now goes longer

10. 40 bad debut vs this kind

11. 70 MTO- needs rain, big shot off the turf

12. 51 MTO dont like at all
​

Turf: 1-2-3-4
OFF T: 11-1-3
​

5th

1. 77 has really taken to belmont turf, should be flying late

1A. 71 0-13 last 2 yrs

1X. MTO 80 rolled in sloppy going 2 back, choice on off track

2. 75 came from way back to score in last, should get a good inside trip

3. 78 always liked this one usually get caught late, finds an easy spot to take lead and try to wire them

4. 83 0-5 this yr and turf outing was a joke

5. 68 0-10 on turf, steps up

6. 78 never on turf, only one start this yr at finger lakes, off track record is solid

7. 76 can close, scored from 20 lengths back at 1 1/8, problem is lack of pace and shorter distance

8. 74 yet another that closes, switches to hill here and connot dissmiss

9. MTO 76 hit or miss 9-3-0-0

10. MTO 71 big shot if rained off the turf
​

TURF: 3-8-1-2
OFF: 6-1X-10-4
​

back with the rest as soon as i can​

 

[ATP]

6th

1. 49 couldnt bet this one with monopoly money

2. 60 should be well behind all the way

3. 64 ran a solid figure on the dirt 2 back finishing 2 lengths back of the scratched fav, I notice she has run vs a few good ones: dorm fever, lears princess, and sagamoon, no such foe in here

4. 71 1-26 and only 1-14 on dirt, has better figures but is majorly inconsistent chalk and Ill let her try to beat me

5. 49 last one was bad, and last offtrack race was worse

6. 66 only win was on off track, since then has bounced on turf and was beaten 9 lengths by a nice Guts Game, board threat

7. 62 Maiden win on off track, may not have liked the grass, 1st of 6 and 3rd of 11 on dirt, has a shot

9. 68 dissapointing since breaking maiden vs better, softer spot here

3-7-9
​

7th

1. 47 9-0-0-0 turf record, only start this yr beaten 20 lengths

1A. 50 2-44 lifetime, 2-20 on turf, cannot endorse

2. 47 sports back to back wins, tries turf for first time, no monsters in here may surprise at a price

6. 70 3 subpar efforts in a row, appears very vulnerable favorite even with class edge

7. 56 won last at delaware on the turf, absolutly hates off track

8. 63 dont care if her class is a bit better, 6-0-0-0 this yr and 1-10 on turf, bad at the distance and off track
​

2-7-6
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8th

1. 88 Monarchos filly has been first or 2nd in all 6 starts at the distance, last start was at 7F vs a very good teammate, can bounce back vs softer

2. 74 simply not sharp enough to compete with these

3. 91 romped in slop at delaware, 61-2-3 on offtrack, 10-3-3-3 at distance, gets CV 3-1 is major value in this spot

4. 94 flopped on turf, was very good prior on dirt, 3-4 on off track, 9-18 at the distance

5.N/A Brazilian Invader is 3-4 on off track, been off since Feb for Pletcher and Johhny V, could prove me wrong as the fav but i Have to go against
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3-4-1
​

9th

1. 62 ran 4th to sagamoon, gets Prado could hit board

2. 66 beaten 17 lengths in last after going way too fast eary, will have lead but may have a little company up front, vulnerable favorite

3. 55 off since july, never on board, carries all time high

5. 26 disaster in debut, need to see another after that

6. 54 nearly won on off track 2 back but wasnt a good figure, came back and bounced may duel with the 2 early

7. 40 anything with oscar gomez is a pass

8. 45 Gets off grass, back to dirt where she had run 2nd or 3rd 4 times in a row, makes her dangerous at a price

9. 50 been a long time since she ran well

10. 18 should stay in the barn

11. 59 Touch gold filly with AP Indy bloodline switches to dirt where those that beat her have come back well, good shot in lackluster field

12. 41 never on board, 7 starts= earnings of $3246 not good enough
​

8-11-2-1
​

not a bad start to the day lets get some winners​

 

[ATP]

bam, third race makes exacta, tri and win bet with 6-1 on top sweet start, finally looks like a gave a good card

 

[G.MONEY]

Keep it up

 

[ATP]

another great ride by desormeaux and the winners keep coming

 

[punz34]

i really lik #3 in this next race, i may put a large wager on show, possibly 300-400

 

[punz34]

hey man, if you are watching the races, can u tell me how race 5 went, lol kind of nervous now with how big i went

 

[punz34]

damnit got killed haha

 

[MistaFlava]

Wow you killed it in the first three races...keep em coming man and thanks!

 

[ATP]

Brooklyn betty would be a nice way to end the day

 

[Intruder]

how did the 9th race finish?

 

[jimmyk+]

nice job bro !!!:money8: