before the debate (wed) after the debate

5teamparlay · Oct 15, 2004

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal">10-13-2004, 12:39 PM </TD><TD class=thead style="FONT-WEIGHT: normal" align=right> #8 </TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD class=alt2 width=175>gvceric<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> vbmenu_register("postmenu_1551759", true); </SCRIPT>
RX Junior

Join Date: Sep 2004
Posts: 21

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<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=576 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>John Kerry

</TD><TD>+120<INPUT onclick=checkWC(); type=checkbox value=134371 name=lineID>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=576 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>George W. Bush

</TD><TD>-150<INPUT onclick=checkWC(); type=checkbox value=134372 name=lineID>
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5teamparlay · Oct 15, 2004

after the KERRY win of wednesdays debate

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>Who will win the 2004 US Presidential Election?
</TD><TD>Odds
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
All wagers have action.
Preview

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=576 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>John Kerry

</TD><TD>+125<INPUT onclick=checkWC(); type=checkbox value=138616 name=lineID>

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=576 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD>George W. Bush

</TD><TD>-155

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

D2bets · Oct 15, 2004

Oh my, one book moved their line a nickel, we have a winner! (you do realize that could simply have been one person making some random wager?)

You have got to be kidding.

In fact, the tradesports market, if memory serves moved from around Bush 59 pre-debate to 55 post-debate. That is the result of hundreds, if not thousands, of bids and asks moving the market.

kayaman+ · Oct 15, 2004

Actually during the debate Pinny took the line down.

Yesterday they put out...

Repubs -139
Dems +129

This morning it was up to...

Repubs -144
Dems +134

Now it's back down to...

Repubs -140
Dems +130

Chris and Olympic are both coming back +130 on the dems but charging more for the repubs because they have 30 and 20 cent lines.

5teamparlay · Oct 15, 2004

one book moved it a nickle is not the point. The point is BUSH loses all three debates. Then gains where it really counts, where people put their money. Listening to this forum and the American press wolda thought Kerry woulda gained so this is at least 10 cents off what I thought the line would be when i looked it up today.

D2bets · Oct 15, 2004

Where people put their money? No, like I said, that book could have moved a nickel on ONE WAGER. One wager is determinative of who won the debate? Huh? Like I said, if you're following the money, you gotta watch P2P market trading, not a single book with a 30 cent line moving on its own low volume action. That's not very sharp.

xpanda · Oct 15, 2004

I think it's odd that people presume bookie odds and the final result are the same. After all, isn't it the book's aim to simply get as close to even money on each side? You guys aren't taking into consideration that a. people might think Bush or Kerry will win, but have no intention of voting that way and b. many many non-eligible voters are betting on the election.

I, for example, cannot vote but have money on Bush. If I were American, I wouldn't vote for him. So, my laying money on Bush in no way improves or demonstrates Bush's REAL odds of winning.

5teamparlay · Oct 15, 2004

One wager is determinative of who won the debate?

I HAVE HEARD THAT THERE IS MORE MONEY WAGERED ON THIS THAN THE SUPERBOWL.

D2bets · Oct 15, 2004

gvceric, yes exactly, but not at that one book (what book BTW?) on that evening that caused them to move a whole nickel. Maybe you should put more stock into the fact that the trading markets had Bush at 69 (-220) heading into the first debate and now sit around 54 (-117). -220 to -117 steam in a matter of around 3 weeks. Things have changed.